War Against ISIS

[gazzzwp]

Russia moving 5 MIG-29 fighters to Armenia.

RT is very clear that it is linked to the tensions resulting from the downing of the SU-30 and "tensions between Russia and Turkey".

https://www.rt.com/news/333091-russia-aircraft-base-armenia/

This is apparently supplementing the existing 18 MIG-29's and 7 helicoper gunships. This is quite a build up by anyone's standards! What is Russia actually planning? Does anyone have any ideas? Is this campaign about to take a dramatic escalation?

 

[PO2GRV]

Russia moving 5 MIG-29 fighters to Armenia.

RT is very clear that it is linked to the tensions resulting from the downing of the SU-30 and "tensions between Russia and Turkey".

https://www.rt.com/news/333091-russia-aircraft-base-armenia/

This is apparently supplementing the existing 18 MIG-29's and 7 helicoper gunships. This is quite a build up by anyone's standards! What is Russia actually planning? Does anyone have any ideas? Is this campaign about to take a dramatic escalation?

Planning? Deterrence. Russia suspects (or knows, but we peons wont see that intel) a coming Turkish intervention and is positioning these assets to send at least two messages: 1) Russia is no soft target and Turkey wont just be fighting the SAA, and 2) Russia is signaling to Turkey that if they intervene in Syria Russia will attack from more places than across that border which would answer a question i had a few posts ago about how NATO affects Russias calculus here

My take is that Russia is not worried about an Article 5 invocation or sending a signal dissuading one, telling the rest of NATO that Turkish regional ambitions arent worth igniting WW3

Standy for NATO posturing and keep your eyes peeled for an Article 4 meeting in Brussels

 

[A.V. Berg]

Russia moving 5 MIG-29 fighters to Armenia.

RT is very clear that it is linked to the tensions resulting from the downing of the SU-30 and "tensions between Russia and Turkey".

https://www.rt.com/news/333091-russia-aircraft-base-armenia/

This is apparently supplementing the existing 18 MIG-29's and 7 helicoper gunships. This is quite a build up by anyone's standards! What is Russia actually planning? Does anyone have any ideas? Is this campaign about to take a dramatic escalation?

That Russian base has been operating for a while and its Mig's are becoming quite elderly. From what I gather, their replacement by the SMT variety has been on the agenda long before the Turkish imbroglio. Armenia seeks security reassurance from Russia because of massive Azerbajani arms purchases. There are S 300s and possibly even Iskanders there as well. Situation with Turkey just makes the Gumri base all the more relevant for Russia's interests in the region.

 

[gazzzwp]

That Russian base has been operating for a while and its Mig's are becoming quite elderly. From what I gather, their replacement by the SMT variety has been on the agenda long before the Turkish imbroglio. Armenia seeks security reassurance from Russia because of massive Azerbajani arms purchases. There are S 300s and possibly even Iskanders there as well. Situation with Turkey just makes the Gumri base all the more relevant for Russia's interests in the region.

It could really all be about maintaining parity with neighbouring Azerbaijan I agree.

http://abcnews.go.com/International...-200m-armenia-fund-weapons-purchases-37058753

Russia sells arms to both players! A classic example of market preservation!

It was the specific mention in RT about the Turkey situation that made me sit up. To deter an invasion from the north by SA/Turkey is certainly one option.

Presumably if Turkish forces move into Northern Syria and the MIG's then strike presumably Article 5 is not invoked? I always imagined that Article 5 had no relevance regarding expeditionary situations? I am open to more information on that one.

The only other thing that came to mind could Russia be preparing a strike against the Turkish artillery currently shelling the Kurdish forces?

 

[gazzzwp]

Planning? Deterrence. Russia suspects (or knows, but we peons wont see that intel) a coming Turkish intervention and is positioning these assets to send at least two messages: 1) Russia is no soft target and Turkey wont just be fighting the SAA, and 2) Russia is signaling to Turkey that if they intervene in Syria Russia will attack from more places than across that border which would answer a question i had a few posts ago about how NATO affects Russias calculus here

My take is that Russia is not worried about an Article 5 invocation or sending a signal dissuading one, telling the rest of NATO that Turkish regional ambitions arent worth igniting WW3

Standy for NATO posturing and keep your eyes peeled for an Article 4 meeting in Brussels

Turkey rules out unilateral invasion.

Turkey rules out unilateral ground intervention in Syria | euronews, world news

Are we making the assumption that any shoot down incident carried out in self-defence automatically implies a full out engagement? I doubt it as both sides (NATO and Russia) have too much to lose.

 

[Hone C]

Presumably if Turkish forces move into Northern Syria and the MIG's then strike presumably Article 5 is not invoked? I always imagined that Article 5 had no relevance regarding expeditionary situations? I am open to more information on that one.

I was under the impression that Article 5 could only be invoked for events taking place in North America, Europe (with the specific inclusion of French Algeria), and on the oceans North of the Tropic of Cancer, but that it was subsequently extended to the territory of Turkey. Not sure any Middle eastern conflict that Turkey were to be involved in outside of her own territory would merit wider NATO involvement under Article 5, but having said that I'm no lawyer.

That is not to say there wouldn't be a NATO response of course, but there might not be a Treaty obligation to assist. Quietly hoping we don't see it tested to be honest.

 

[PO2GRV]

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

Theres a link to the text of thr charter. It mentions an attack on NAmerica or Europe. If Turkey and Russia start shooting at each other and Russia hits targets inside the Turkish border then technically Turkey could request an Article 4 meeting

But thats good news theyre waiving the possibility of unilateral intervention. The end of the world can wait.

 

[Dave__]

Syrian regime forces have totally surrounded a group of Daesh forces east of Aleppo today, on 20 February.

Some details and interactive map: https://stratreview.wordpress.com/2...-forces-surround-daesh-forces-east-of-aleppo/

 

[Toblerone]

Great, I wonder how many fighters are surrounded there.

Anyway, I think the big danger of turkish intervention (gasoline to the fire) has passed. They weighted their options, got told off by the USA etc.

Now that the jihadis are hurt badly the USA and main european countries should be somewhat appeased?

ISIS especially must be brought down a level or two before it gains too much traction in Libya. It is an idea for a caliphate, not just a terror group. If the Assad coalition breaks their backs, city by city, recruitment will be more difficult in other countries.

 

[Dave__]

According to the reports there should be less than a thousand of surrounded Daesh fighters. Perhaps something around 800.

 

[Dave__]

Updated interactive map with the latest developments:

1) Fall of the surrounded pocket of Daesh in Aleppo;
2) Continued rapid advance of the Kurds in Al-Hasakah:

https://stratreview.wordpress.com/2...s-proceed-to-destroy-surrounded-daesh-forces/


P.S. It turned out that only 100-200 Daesh fighters got surrounded after all. The rest managed to escape before being fully encircled.

 

[Feanor]

Updated interactive map with the latest developments:

1) Fall of the surrounded pocket of Daesh in Aleppo;
2) Continued rapid advance of the Kurds in Al-Hasakah:

https://stratreview.wordpress.com/2...s-proceed-to-destroy-surrounded-daesh-forces/


P.S. It turned out that only 100-200 Daesh fighters got surrounded after all. The rest managed to escape before being fully encircled.

They didn't "manage to escape", they simply pulled out over the several days that Tiger Force has been trying to close the pocket. as-Sin was taken by both sides twice, for example, preventing them from shutting the pocket. The SAA screwed up, what was to be a rather elegant victory. Given which military recently planned and participated in creating "pockets" like this one, and given that the SAA hasn't been fighting in the manner before, it seems that Russian General Staff over-estimated the SAA's abilities.

 

[Dave__]

Well, yes, this surrounding thing is definitely in Russian/Soviet military school. And they have used similar maneuver twice - when you first lift the siege of your surrounded groups (1st Kwaires base, 2nd - Nubl-Zahraa), and then use this formerly surrounded territory of yours to go on and surround the opponent's forces in turn.

 

[Feanor]

I'll make a bigger update post later today, for now, "European diplomats have warned the Turkish government that it cannot count on the NATO support should the conflict with Russia escalate into an armed conflict, according to German media."

NATO warns Turkey it can't count on support in a conflict with Russia as tensions escalate | Daily Mail Online

I think this answers the question about NATO and Turkish belligerence in the Middle East. The Europeans certainly don't intend to be dragged into a war with Russia over Turkish interests in Syria.

 

[surpreme]

Russian aid really has help Syrian Armed Forces

With capture of power plant the Syrians Forces made a big advance. This come as they are heading east towards more ISIS forces. The Russia Air Force must be given credit for this. Russia Air Force show some nice maneuver's with these helicopter attacks. Russian and Syrian units are cooperating more better after 6 months in contact. With the way the Tiger forces are moving they going to take the east in 2 months. The Russian resupplied of the Tiger forces has really help this unit. If there rate of new supplies can keep up with them they will have the ability to take back all of eastern Syria.

 

[PO2GRV]

While i agree that the SAA has made great gains in these past couple months and have had quite a reversal in their fortune to say nothing of Russias efforts, there are limits

The fact remains the SAA wasnt a terribly efficient force, and that was before being gutted by years of civil war. Theyre exhausted and if it continues the offensive after Aleppo ill be very surprised. If Syria takes Aleppo we will see Russia at the very least try to freeze the conflict, buy some time to work some diplomatic magic while the SAA and Russias own forces recuperate.

We have to remember that regardless of what Assad wants, or even Joe Syrian, its beneficial for Russia to freeze this: Terrorists in the east, stable regime in the west (with secure Russian bases), independence loving moderate Kurds in the north, menacing overreaching Turkey across the border...

Its a good looking situation to Russian eyes methinks because retaking all of Syria isnt a priority and likely isnt feasible in any case

 

[Feanor]

Update.

ISIS counter offensive has cut the supply line to Aleppo. It's unlikely they will hold the small village, but this will certainly force the SAA to relocate resources to defend their lines.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Áîåâèêè ÈÃ âçÿëè ïîä êîíòðîëü åäèíñòâåííóþ òðàññó äëÿ ñíàáæåíèÿ ñèðèéñêîé àðìèè â Àëåïïî
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-cuts-the-only-government-supply-line-to-aleppo/

The SAA offensive in Latakia continues, taking Kinsabba, and pushing northward towards the Turkish border.

The SAA has cleared the al-Safira plains of ISIS fighters. Though to be fair there weren't many ISIS fighters there to clear. As mentioned above, they left in a timely manner, while fighting a delaying action around al-Sin and the east Aleppo thermal plant.

Meanwhile the Kurds in Aleppo are gaining ground, likely taking advantage of the fact that the rebels are lacking supplies. They've also taken Tel-Rifaat in the Azaz pocket, and are pushing Mari.

Kurds are also pushing southward in Hasake province.

К воÑтоку от Ðлеппо - Colonel Cassad
СириÑ, Ð²Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка 17 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Ð’Ð¾ÐµÐ½Ð½Ð°Ñ Ð¾Ð±Ñтановка в Сирии 18 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016, оÑвобождена КинÑибба (обновлено-2) (Туфелька)
Военное положение в Сирии 19 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ 2016 года (Туфелька)
Сводка военных дейÑтвий в Сирии 20-21 февралÑ, оÑвобождена ТЭС Ðлеппо, котел в воÑточном Ðлеппо ликвидирован (обновлено-3) (Туфелька)

Footage from Kinsibba after the SAA took it. Note the improvised vehicles. They remain a staple of SAA ops, despite Russian aid.

Кадры из оÑвобожденной КинÑаббы в Сирии - bmpd

French figures of air ops during operation Chammal. 1600 combat sorties, 6600 hours in the sky, 4000 refuels (not sure what the last means).

ФранцузÑкие 500 дней - итоги воздушной операции "Chammal" против "Халифата" - bmpd

The maps are dated, but there is still plenty of footage from the conflict zone.

СириÑ. Текущее - Colonel Cassad

Amnesty International has accused Russia of secondary airstrikes aimed at rescue workers. Meanwhile Assad accuses the US of civilian deaths in northern Aleppo.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Amnesty International îáâèíÿåò ÂÊÑ ÐÔ â íàìåðåííûõ óäàðàõ ïî ðàçáèðàþùèì çàâàëû ñïàñàòåëÿì
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Àñàä îáâèíèë ÑØÀ â ãèáåëè ìèðíîãî íàñåëåíèÿ íà ñåâåðå Ñèðèè

Shiite volunteers from Afghanistan deployed by Iran to Syria.

ШиитÑкие добровольцы из ÐфганиÑтана на ÑирийÑкой авиабазе ТиÑÑ - Юрий ЛÑмин

Luna-M missiles have been used by regime forces in Syria, (FROG-7).

Чем богаты... - Берлога Бронемедведа

The first link OSINT review of Russian forces near Palmyra in the Syrian ground war.
The second link is high-res photos of Russian aircraft over Latakia, including the Tu-214R ELINT bird deployed recently. Also a few shots of Syrian girls from Latakia. Not my intent, just the photographer.

https://citeam.org/russian-vehicles-transferred-from-hmeymim-airbase-to-eastern-syria/
Отличные фото машин ВКС РоÑÑии в небе Латакии - Юрий ЛÑмин

US State Department says there will be negotiations between Obama and Putin on Syria.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ãîñäåï àíîíñèðîâàë ñêîðûå ïåðåãîâîðû ìåæäó Ïóòèíûì è Îáàìîé î ïåðåìèðèè â Ñèðèè

There have been routine Il-76 flights out of Damascus to Syrian Kurdistan. Supposedly a Syrian AF bird, but who knows what it's carrying.

Ил-76Т Syrian Air YK-ATB как регулÑрка DAM-KAC - Ðвиаголоволомки

NATO will not be backing Turkey in a conflict with Russia over Syria.

ÐÐТО не будет защищать Турцию в Ñлучае конфликта Ñ Ð Ð¾ÑÑией | Военный информатор

Syrian opposition denies negotiating a ceasefire, and demands airstrikes cease.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ñèðèéñêàÿ îïïîçèöèÿ íå âåäåò ïåðåãîâîðû î ïåðåìèðèè,àèâàåò íà ïðåêðàùåíèè àâèàóäàðîâ

Russia raised a UN Security Council resolution demanding that countries stop undermining Syrian sovereignty. The resolution was denied without discussion.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Ðîññèÿ âíåñëà â Ñîâåò Áåçîïàñíîñòè ÎÎÍ ïðîåêò ðåçîëþöèè ïî Ñèðèè

The Kurds take responsibility for the car bombing in Ankara. Some sources indicate the majority of those that died in the recent Kurdish bombing were Turkish pilots. Meanwhile a Turkish politician accuses their own military of burning 150 Kurdish civilians to death.

The last link is photos from the bombing.

Ãœlke TV (ТурциÑ): Из 28 человек, погибших 17 Ñ„ÐµÐ²Ñ€Ð°Ð»Ñ Ð²Ð¾ Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð²Ð·Ñ€Ñ‹Ð²Ð° в Ðнкаре, 22 - военные пилоты (sevik68)
Военные Ñожгли заживо 150 мирных курдов - турецкий депутат (Fanatic)
Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Êóðäñêèå áîåâèêè âçÿëè íà ñåáÿ îòâåòñòâåííîñòü çà âçðûâ â Àíêàðå
colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2620239.html

There is unconfirmed info of another airstrikes by Israel against targets in Syria. They hit near an SAA checkpoint.

Íîâîñòè NEWSru.com :: Èçðàèëü çàïîäîçðèëè â ðàêåòíîì óäàðå ïî òåððèòîðèè Ñèðèè

 

[gazzzwp]

I'll make a bigger update post later today, for now, "European diplomats have warned the Turkish government that it cannot count on the NATO support should the conflict with Russia escalate into an armed conflict, according to German media."

NATO warns Turkey it can't count on support in a conflict with Russia as tensions escalate | Daily Mail Online

I think this answers the question about NATO and Turkish belligerence in the Middle East. The Europeans certainly don't intend to be dragged into a war with Russia over Turkish interests in Syria.

Slight suspicions about the article. I actually doubt whether NATO have in reality said this. Can anyone find a corroborating source? I have not found one yet.

 

[chris]

Slight suspicions about the article. I actually doubt whether NATO have in reality said this. Can anyone find a corroborating source? I have not found one yet.

Well, Daily Mail talks about German media. I guess they are referring to this
NATO Worried about Possible Turkey-Russia Hostilities - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Now, if spiegel lies or not, I don't know

 

[Dave__]

Daesh has taken Khanaser town on the strategic road that connected two parts of the territory under Assad's control.

Right now transport communication between Assad's main territory and his areas in the Aleppo Province is cut.

Interactive map here: https://stratreview.wordpress.com/2016/02/23/daesh-isis-takes-khanaser/