Varyag Moved to Drydock?
- Thread starter Feanor
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Crusader2000
Banned Member
In what way???
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- #23
Well they have the T-10K, but it doesn't seem to be enough, as they were recently trying to negotiate a deal for a limited number of Su-33. So I take it they will borrow what they can from the T-10K, but will need to develop parts of the required technology themselves.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Seems like I read something many years ago. About China purchasing the plans for the Su-33???
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Funny, it sounds like the Russians are giving up there Su-33's for new Mig-29K's. While, the Chinese develope a domestic Model of the PLAAF Flanker. Which, is very similar to Russian Su-33's. (i.e. J-15)
Personally, I think the PLAN is getting a better deal.
Personally, I think the PLAN is getting a better deal.
The Russian Su-33 are coming to the end of their service life. The production line for this aircraft does not exist anymore. On the other hand, the Mig-29K is in production for the Indian carrier, possibly with additional orders for more carriers later on. Therefore for the Russians its just common sense to simply build more Mig-29K for their own need. The Chinese on the other hand have to spend quite some money on R&D in order to get what they need. No synergies there.
Last but not least the capabilities of the new Mig-29K have increased signifcantly over the older model developed in Soviet times.
Last but not least the capabilities of the new Mig-29K have increased signifcantly over the older model developed in Soviet times.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
All very true. Yet, China had expressed a great deal of interest in the Su-33 for its future carrier program. Now China will go it alone with its own Naval Version of the Flanker and Russia will get nothing????
StevoJH
The Bunker Group
No, Russia will get Mig 29K's, which have already had their development paid for by the Indian Navy.All very true. Yet, China had expressed a great deal of interest in the Su-33 for its future carrier program. Now China will go it alone with its own Naval Version of the Flanker and Russia will get nothing????
Crusader2000
Banned Member
My point was Russia could also get paid for the development of the Su-33 for China.
Remember, India is purchasing more and more Military Hardware from the West. So, Russia needs to see to anyone that is buying.........
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- #31
China wasn't willing to get a large enough order of Su-33s. That's probably another reason for why the VMF got the MiG-29K. Also it's pretty clear that Russia is orienting more towards long term partnership with India then China, who insists on developing it's own hardware.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
True, from recent press reports. It was "claimed" that China was only interested in a limited number of aircraft. (i.e. Su-33's) Yet, wouldn't it be in Russia's interest to at least make some money off the deal??? Especially, considering that China would likely just go it alone and develop its own Naval Version of the Flanker without Russia's Help!
Also, while its obvious that India will continue to buy Military Hardware from Russia. It is in fact purchasing more and more equipment from the West and the US in particular. (P-8's, C-130's, E-2D's, etc. etc.) So, Russia's relationship with China is paramount. Especially, if its hope to be a viable player in the Global Export Arms Market.
Really, the next decade or two are critical for Russia. Remember, its Military Aircraft Sales are small and its Naval Construction is on a sharp decline. Only is Air Defense Systems are generating any reasonable interest from the market............
Russias relationship to China in terms of arms supplies is dwindling and coming to an end, not because of choices Russia made, but because of those by China. A truly cooperative effort, such as with India on several aspects, never really existed between Russia and China. Its not in Chinas interest, so much is clear from pretty much any R&D program they got going. Russia and China are geopolitical rivals, their day-to-day politics follow mutual interests in some regard, but do not imply close cooperation. That much can be seen even in regard to aspects, where they follow somewhat of a similar course in opposition to the US. Their cooperation via the Shanghai organization and their bilateral military training exercises in my opinion serve much more as a confirmation and reassurance of friendly mutual relations rather than a more intense strategic cooperation
On the other hand, India does have some vital interest in cooperation with Russia. They both want to keep China in check, yet do not have contested geopolitical areas between the two of them. Their cooperation on the level of arms procurement proved far healthier for Russia, in the combination of income, long-term commitments and the respect of intellectual property.
What it comes down to in this case, as was noted before, is, that China would have bought a couple of Su-33. Not enough to justify a profitable export order for Russia, but enough for China to see the design in detail and go indigenous on their own terms later on. Russia would end up doing a favor to a geopolitical rival, as far as the Pacific theater is concerned, but would not get anything significant out of it. The Chinese of course, still can develop and produce that fighter in her own right, but it will take them longer, causing more costs and overall delay their effort, all of which is in Russias interest. It wont hurt the Russians more than it already has (because of the tech transfers that occurred in the past).
India has always been manouvering between arms procurements from the West and from Russia, its one of their strategical objectives. For this very reason they will never completely abandon Russia as a partner in this regard. China on the other hand will abandon any foreign cooperation as soon as they can do it on their own, as far as significant programs are concerned. Every major procurement they had in the last decade shows that very well.
On the other hand, India does have some vital interest in cooperation with Russia. They both want to keep China in check, yet do not have contested geopolitical areas between the two of them. Their cooperation on the level of arms procurement proved far healthier for Russia, in the combination of income, long-term commitments and the respect of intellectual property.
What it comes down to in this case, as was noted before, is, that China would have bought a couple of Su-33. Not enough to justify a profitable export order for Russia, but enough for China to see the design in detail and go indigenous on their own terms later on. Russia would end up doing a favor to a geopolitical rival, as far as the Pacific theater is concerned, but would not get anything significant out of it. The Chinese of course, still can develop and produce that fighter in her own right, but it will take them longer, causing more costs and overall delay their effort, all of which is in Russias interest. It wont hurt the Russians more than it already has (because of the tech transfers that occurred in the past).
India has always been manouvering between arms procurements from the West and from Russia, its one of their strategical objectives. For this very reason they will never completely abandon Russia as a partner in this regard. China on the other hand will abandon any foreign cooperation as soon as they can do it on their own, as far as significant programs are concerned. Every major procurement they had in the last decade shows that very well.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Well, I agree with the majority of your remarks. Yet, I see India moving more and more to the West. So, my point is Russia needs to foster every Arms Relationship. Regardless, if its China or whoever. Its also worth noting that while China has come along ways. It still has areas that it need significant help with. (Submarines for example) Plus, the fact that Russia needs to keep the US in check. In some ways more than China. As the US is the leader of several major Military Alliances. Which, are vastly more powerful than China.
Again, this is no choice to be made by Russia. China would have to come forth with the prospect for large-scale orders or long-term cooperation, as they did in the past with the Su-27SK/J-11 program or, in naval matters, their orders for SSKs. This will not happen anymore, the Chinese enquiries about any tech transfer conceivable have made that very clear. The only thing they currently need in somewhat larger numbers is large transports and tankers (also as airframes suitable for AEWC conversion), ie. Il-76s. Incidentally the only current contract between the two countries adresses this issue. There is a smaller, but still productive demand for helos as well, but thats it.
India on contrast still orders large amounts of Russian hardware, see their ongoing procurement of T-90s (local manufacturing plus kits) and plans to induct significant numbers of foreign systems, as with the MRCA competition.
Naturally Russia likes to have a share in any market, so there is no decision for or against anyone, but as I tried to show, the Chinese do not offer any kind of deal that would be productive and lucrative for Russia.
Btw: the Chinese sub development is now a stand-alone program. There is no prospect there for Russia making any kind of money. whatsoever. Russia is not playing the good samaritan helping out with know-how that can just as well backfire later on. That would simply be foolish.
India on contrast still orders large amounts of Russian hardware, see their ongoing procurement of T-90s (local manufacturing plus kits) and plans to induct significant numbers of foreign systems, as with the MRCA competition.
Naturally Russia likes to have a share in any market, so there is no decision for or against anyone, but as I tried to show, the Chinese do not offer any kind of deal that would be productive and lucrative for Russia.
Btw: the Chinese sub development is now a stand-alone program. There is no prospect there for Russia making any kind of money. whatsoever. Russia is not playing the good samaritan helping out with know-how that can just as well backfire later on. That would simply be foolish.
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- #36
I think I had a conversation on the subject with you before Crusader. The deal was completely unprofitable, because of the small numbers ordered, and a need to restart the production line for what is essentially a different airframe.
Small compared to what? Or is the giant MKI program small? Coupled with many other Flanker orders from abroad, the aviation industry is perhaps the more successful of Russian defense industries.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Respectfully, other than the MKI being produced in India for the IAF. The Flanker has been sold in relatively small numbers worldwide. Though, I will agree that the aviation sector as a whole. Is the most successful of the Major Defense Industries with in Russia.You are correct that it would hardly be profitable for Russia to produce a hand full of new built Su-33's for China alone. Yet, Russia could have at least provided Technical, Design, and maybe even some Components for the Project. Instead China will develop its own Version of the Naval Flanker and Russia gets nothing.
Yet, with that said I think you are missing my point. Over the last decade or two Russia's biggest customers were India and China. Now India is purchasing more and more equipment from the West and China producing more and more of its own.
In short Russia will need to find new customers and get whatever business it can from wherever in can. Regardless, of the size and scope.
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- #38
In other words Russia needs to diversify. Yes. And it's not like they haven't been trying.
The Su-33 bet (at least it seems to me) is that the Chinese need our help badly enough to make a larger order. Apparently that gamble hasn't paid off.
The Su-33 bet (at least it seems to me) is that the Chinese need our help badly enough to make a larger order. Apparently that gamble hasn't paid off.
Crusader2000
Banned Member
Really, China would be "wise" to leverage Russian Military Technology for its own advancement. Yet, seems content to go it alone? Which, is a big mistake in my opinion.
plasmahawk
Member
Agree on diversification for Russia but have big doubts on the Chinese improvements. I sat eagerly awaiting the show of the New and unique hardware at the 60th anniversary parade this October First. The H-6s flying over Tien Men was weak. I rarely sink to using words such as weak, but the Chinese have been banging on a plane that is 40 years old, some modifications are made, its lighter, has new engines ( out of the Il 76 I think ) and some radar and internal improvements. But come on, 40 years, and Chinese have not produced a Tu22 or B1 or a V-Bomber type aircraft? Or had taken this time to do a redesign, to at least create an Myasichev style M4 bomber with better range?
The fact that the strategic bomber of choice for a nation willing to flex its geopolitical strength is a Tu-16, puts me into great doubt about the aircraft carrier's unique capability. Who knows can they get the J11 to be airworthy alone, or with Ukraine's help? Or will they just go and buy some US World war 2 planes, maybe some Phantoms and F-8s to fly off the Varyag for the next fourty years.
I am not trying ( I repeat again ) to be very anti/bashful, but the parade of never before seen technologies, composed of nothing remarkable really lowered my expectations of China's military capability and its R&D.
H6-DU tanker at the parade : http://inapcache.boston.com/universal/site_graphics/blogs/bigpicture/china60_10_01/c22_20570501.jpg
Plasma