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John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
From the article, "There is strong evidence that free trade keeps the peace. Stanford economists Matthew O. Jackson and Stephen Nei examined why international conflict fell precipitously from the period 1820-1949 to 1950-2000, and concluded that international trade was likely a major contributor."

Conflict fell? The former period includes a few minor wars, Crimean and Boer, and both World Wars whereas the latter includes the Korean and Vietnam Wars, the Iran-Iraq war and the first Gulf War. I guess if Trump ruins Globalization we are in more trouble.:D
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
A few minor wars? The Mahratta Wars; the Sikh Wars; the piecemeal Russian conquest of the Caucasus & Central Asia; the British conquest of Burma; the US Civil War; the Taiping war (may have matched WW2 in bloodiness); the Sino-Japanese & Russo-Japanese wars; the surprisingly bloody War of the Triple Alliance; the devastating Mexican & Spanish Civil wars; the second Sino-Japanese war with its millions of deaths, overlapping with the biggest war known, i.e. WW2; the second biggest war on record, WW1, & the tangle of linked wars in the Balkans, Russia, Turkey, Mongolia, etc.; more colonial wars than you can shake a stick at; assorted Chinese civil wars from the first revolution in 1911 to the end of the second one in 1949 (that was bigger than any war since in area, numbers involved, deaths, etc.) . . .

Small recent wars look big because they're recent, but long ago wars look small because they were long ago. It puts me in mind of the Father Ted episode - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXypyrutq_M
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
So I think we are on the same page as to the validity of Jackson' s and Nei's thesis. They did mention international conflicts so perhaps civil wars don't count although a case for "external ignition" can be made for a few of them.
 
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colay1

Member
I'm really concerned with Trump's gutting of the State Department. Does his narcissistic brain delude him into thinking he can route the management of diplomatic relations thru the WH where his "fantastic negotiating skills" will come into play? And is his fixation on military strength a tell that he thinks he can bully his way to get what he wants? Sadly, I think they need to advance the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight.
 
t68

t68

Well-Known Member
colay1 said:
I'm really concerned with Trump's gutting of the State Department. Does his narcissistic brain delude him into thinking he can route the management of diplomatic relations thru the WH where his "fantastic negotiating skills" will come into play? And is his fixation on military strength a tell that he thinks he can bully his way to get what he wants? Sadly, I think they need to advance the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight.
Click to expand...
The clock has already moved up 30 seconds since Trump inauguration
 
2007yellow430

2007yellow430

Active Member
It's difficult not to include politics, but I don't think he will be around much longer. The issue re: investigation(s) may have a huge impact upon him (In Watergate, it wasn't the actual deed, it was the cover-up after that caused the trouble). Don't know about Pence, but I think he might be a little more level headed.

Art

Mods: If this is too political, please free free to delete it.
 
t68

t68

Well-Known Member
2007yellow430 said:
It's difficult not to include politics, but I don't think he will be around much longer. The issue re: investigation(s) may have a huge impact upon him (In Watergate, it wasn't the actual deed, it was the cover-up after that caused the trouble). Don't know about Pence, but I think he might be a little more level headed.

Art

Mods: If this is too political, please free free to delete it.
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Can you expande on that please, are you referring to trump and the (Obama?) wire tap or the Trumpcamp non disclosure about talking to the Russians?
 
2007yellow430

2007yellow430

Active Member
t68 said:
Can you expande on that please, are you referring to trump and the (Obama?) wire tap or the Trumpcamp non disclosure about talking to the Russians?
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I think they are both intertwined. If indeed Obama had obtained a warrant, it implies provable contact with the Russians of a nature that would imply or suggest treason. The FISA court wouldn't have issued a warrant without substantial proof. If there wasn't a warrant, and no tap, then his sanity might come into question.

Art
 
t68

t68

Well-Known Member
2007yellow430 said:
I think they are both intertwined. If indeed Obama had obtained a warrant, it implies provable contact with the Russians of a nature that would imply or suggest treason. The FISA court wouldn't have issued a warrant without substantial proof. If there wasn't a warrant, and no tap, then his sanity might come into question.

Art
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As far as in can tell the only way of removing Trump is by impeachment or his incapacity to perform his duties. But you cannot remove him for incompetence.

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.
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gf0012-aust

gf0012-aust

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #214
colay1 said:
SECDEF Mattis goes maverick once again, this time on the issue of global warming as a national security threat. Previously he had stressed the importance of diplomacy and foreign engagement in the exercise of soft power as a complement to military might. The Trump Administration has stated it;s intentions to drastically cut the budgets of the State Department and the EPA.


Mattis: 'Climate change' is a national security threat | Washington Examiner
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climate change and the assoc fall out is listed as a critical vector in a number of western nations white papers...

its certainly in Aust, UK, NZ. the PACRIM gets attention for climate change impact for Aust and NZ
 
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Sakharov

New Member
With respect, that is attributing a lot of agency to Trump that he may not in fact possess.
Alternative theory: Trump got bored meeting with Pentagon officials and felt intimidated by smart talk from smart people. So he shifted focus to other matters.
As soon as something grabs his attention in the news, he'll stick his hands back into the Pentagon, make a mess of things, and then lose interest again.
 
cdxbow

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
colay1 said:
Maybe Trump thinks this is a win-win arrangement. Grab the credit when things go right and deny responsibility when things go wrong. For the Generals, I suspect this will feel like the shackles coming off. It's reassuring that Gen. Mattis will be keeping an eye on things.


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/19/...ver-military-operations-back-to-pentagon.html
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Unfortunately he may not last - Hill Republicans say they're growing frustrated with Mattis - POLITICO

I'm not sure Devin Nunes position as House Intelligence Committee is viable in the long term as he appears to have 'briefed the suspects' on the Trump investigation - Nunes: Trump transition members were under surveillance during Obama administration - POLITICO Remember he was also part of the trump transition team, and now claims he had never heard of Roger Stone or Carter Page - https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...-charge-of-probing-trumps-russia-ties/520344/

Added - Nunes should have done that. Looks like the gloves are off. From CNN http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/22/p...may-have-coordinated-with-russians/index.html and Schiff https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...more-than-circumstantial-evidence-now/520509/

Feels funny to be rooting for the 'Deep State'
 
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colay1

Member
Hopefully Trump doesn't start a war to rally public support to his besieged presidency. Kim Jong Un seems more rational and predictable than the US President.
 
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