I'm not so sure the reasons for the arms build-up in China, India, South Korea and even in Japan can be tracked back to the very logical thinking of who will have better access to oil and other commodities in the next years. This surely plays a big role, fair enough.
However, seen from good old Europe, this all resembles the arms race we had in the first half of the 20th century, when powerful recently industrialized governments tried to dominate the others buying ever better battleships and fielding ever more mechanized divisions. Nationalism was the ideology that fed the arms race, and inevitably brought to confrontation despite all the trade and commercial interests that should have stopped this.
Let's just hope that good sense will prevail, and that emerging democracy will stop raw nationalism from escalading disputes. Especially in mainland China, where it would be tempting indeed to federate all Chinese, newly rich and the masses of poorer peasants in the interior, behind a message of "China against the enemy". Much more effective than whatever appeal the communist party may still have in that huge country.
Now, technically, since this is a military affairs site, I don't think it makes much sense for China to push for a blue-water navy with its current technology (even with the bits imported from Russia). The only SSBN is probably not operational, the Han class SSNs are so noisy that they can easily be followed as soon as they leave their bases, and despite some Sovremenny and DDG-51C ships, 95% of the Chinese surface escorts lack decent AAW or ASW equipment. Even the Sovremenny Russian-built DDGs have AAW missiles that are not VLS but still need to be launched like the old Mk-13 on the OH Perry USN frigates (i.e. one by one, max 7 a minute).
Priorities should be to have decent SSNs and several ships capable of defending themselves against harpoons, tomohawks, Mk48 ADCAP torpedoes and so on. A carrier with 2 dozen navalized SU-27 would be a superb asset but would probably be sunk by the Japanese or USN in no time with current SSNs and DDG/FFG.
cheers