NATO and the US are no doubt weighing the pros and cons, and so far, the benefits of having Turkey in NATO weighs much more than the negatives of removing Turkey from NATO. I think John is also correct in that NATO prefers to wait and see how Turkey will develop after Erdogan.
Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.
- Thread starter ngatimozart
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Looking toward Turkish Forums and media, it's clear that the issue with Greece, Armenia and Kurds are the main thing that will swing Turkish Public sentiment whether to or out of West. So far many of them already feel back stab by West on those three matter.
On the other hand the opposition to Erdo Sultan also gaining momentum. That's what I believe why Erdo playing hard ball to West to regain constituents momentum back to his camp. I sense US and Western Europe power still playing careful here, not to give cause to give the momentum back to Erdo Sultan then the opposition.
That's why I believe the F-16V will be a litmus test on how US especially fell on Turkey. Are they want to cut ties now or continue playing waiting and baiting game with Erdo Sultan.
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This's one of the reason Erdo Sultan opposition got momentum. Erdo known to have his own economic theorem. So far this is the results, free fall of Turkish Lira for one thing:
On the other hand the opposition to Erdo Sultan also gaining momentum. That's what I believe why Erdo playing hard ball to West to regain constituents momentum back to his camp. I sense US and Western Europe power still playing careful here, not to give cause to give the momentum back to Erdo Sultan then the opposition.
That's why I believe the F-16V will be a litmus test on how US especially fell on Turkey. Are they want to cut ties now or continue playing waiting and baiting game with Erdo Sultan.
Add:
This's one of the reason Erdo Sultan opposition got momentum. Erdo known to have his own economic theorem. So far this is the results, free fall of Turkish Lira for one thing:
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/73UIEPHQQNP6XCNEAJLCCQDEBE.jpg)
Turkish lira edges closer to record low against dollar
Turkey's lira weakened nearly 1% against the dollar on Thursday, moving closer to last week's record low a day after President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his commitment to low interest rates and asked Turks to trust his government's new economic model.
www.reuters.com
Seems Sultan Erdo or Erdo Sultan (whatever the Otoman era call), not only wants to create his own economic theorm but also want to prove that he's immune from what create many downfall to other political career. "It's the economy Stupid"..
Well Sultan Erdo seems want to prove that Turkish downfall economic conditions will not deter his Political base. Turkish on his opinion and his fanatics supporters will not abandoned him. Sultan Erdo afterall the voice of wisdom and reason to bring back Turkish glory.
Sorry not trying to be political. Just couldn't understand how any nation leader still want to continue an economic policies that already proven to continue bring down his own country economic conondum. How stuborn you can get ?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #324
He isn't extra special in that category. Mugabe of Zimbabwe had a similar outlook and Idi Amin of Uganda also had similar views, from memory.Turkish lira edges closer to record low against dollar
Turkey's lira weakened nearly 1% against the dollar on Thursday, moving closer to last week's record low a day after President Tayyip Erdogan reaffirmed his commitment to low interest rates and asked Turks to trust his government's new economic model.
Seems Sultan Erdo or Erdo Sultan (whatever the Otoman era call), not only wants to create his own economic theorm but also want to prove that he's immune from what create many downfall to other political career. "It's the economy Stupid"..
Well Sultan Erdo seems want to prove that Turkish downfall economic conditions will not deter his Political base. Turkish on his opinion and his fanatics supporters will not abandoned him. Sultan Erdo afterall the voice of wisdom and reason to bring back Turkish glory.
Sorry not trying to be political. Just couldn't understand how any nation leader still want to continue an economic policies that already proven to continue bring down his own country economic conondum. How stuborn you can get ?
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Indeed, he isn’t the only dictator (IMO he is) that displays a cement head attitude. I guess part of this is any backtracking on previous stupidity will be seen as weakness.
Pentaprism
Member
Read the Tea Leaves wrong there, I'm not aligned with Iran. It is fair to Hypocrisy annoys me as does unilateral decisions to breach UN determinations. Sovereign Countries who stand up for themselves against Countries who take Global Laws into their own hands have my support, even if I don't agree with their internal Politics.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos is visiting the United States this week and he is not only offering the bid to join Lockheed Martin’s F-35 co-production program but also lobby against a potential F-16 sale to Turkey.
If the US follows Greeks' wishes, they will not only loose a large F-16 costumer and a large contract, but Turkey will also start to have its doubt about their relationship with the US. This can bring them closer to America's opponents/rivals.
www.defensenews.com
If the US follows Greeks' wishes, they will not only loose a large F-16 costumer and a large contract, but Turkey will also start to have its doubt about their relationship with the US. This can bring them closer to America's opponents/rivals.
Greece moves to join Lockheed’s F-35 program as Turkey F-16 bid stalls
Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos is visiting the United States this week as Athens continues its bid to join Lockheed Martin’s F-35 co-production program and lobby against a potential F-16 sale to Turkey.
www.defensenews.com
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #328
Erdogan has been Turkey's worst enemy in that context, and Turkey has been its own worst enemy overall WRT the Greeks. They can't seem to accept that Greece won it's independence from the Ottoman Empire in the 19th Century and are still holding that grudge. The Greeks can't forget the Ottomans and Turkish atrocities against them. Both the Turks and Greeks are as stubborn as each other. I know that the Turks aren't Persian but I think that may have acquired the ancient Persian enmity towards the Greeks after they conquered and subdued the region. After all the Greeks and the Persians had been fighting each other in classical times and the Persians will not have forgotten the destruction of their empire by Alexander The Great.Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos is visiting the United States this week and he is not only offering the bid to join Lockheed Martin’s F-35 co-production program but also lobby against a potential F-16 sale to Turkey.
If the US follows Greeks' wishes, they will not only loose a large F-16 costumer and a large contract, but Turkey will also start to have its doubt about their relationship with the US. This can bring them closer to America's opponents/rivals.
Greece moves to join Lockheed’s F-35 program as Turkey F-16 bid stalls
Greek Defense Minister Nikolaos Panagiotopoulos is visiting the United States this week as Athens continues its bid to join Lockheed Martin’s F-35 co-production program and lobby against a potential F-16 sale to Turkey.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Anyone fluent in Turkish politics can shed some light on Turkey's relationship with Iran (and Russia but that's a bonus)?
The trilateral meeting of leaders of Russia, Iran, and Turkey in Tehran, seems to have garnered more attention to some beef between all these leaders, than any geopolitical gains.
The trilateral meeting of leaders of Russia, Iran, and Turkey in Tehran, seems to have garnered more attention to some beef between all these leaders, than any geopolitical gains.
True but the Turks will tell you that from 1919-1922 the Greeks indulged in quite a bit of ethnic cleansing and killing as well. They will also tell you that the Greeks can't be trusted; slippery as eels.
I was in Greece in December 1994 on a militaria hunt; stayed with a Greek mate. I was aware that Greece had issues with Turkey but I only found out how deep rooted it was when I was in Greece. I was told that the Turks were a dirty backward people with no real cuture and their country was a mess. The Greeks I met still referred to Istanbul as Constantinople. All I can say is that Greece to me was pretty chaotic when I was there but it was fun. I was and unfortunately still am a chain smoker; Greece back then was a smoker's paradise; could smoke in banks and taxis [seat belts were also not required].
The Greeks supported the Serbs and passionately hated the Bosnians because they were Muslim and were converted by the Ottomans. A small number of far right Greek volunteers fought with the Bosnian Serbs. In a video I watched or a book I read [can't remember which]; a former U.S. military official spoke of a NATO country providing intel to Serbia during the Kosovo war - I've always wondered if he referred to Greece or France.
In one of his books Robert Kaplan explains that Turkey only cultivated a relationship with Israel in the 1990's after it was ignored by the Arabs. This was because of the Ottoman era when the Turks were the overlords; even in the 1990's the Arabs still distrusted and disliked the Turks.
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In 1981, when I was young, I walked across the bridge over the Maritsa river near Ipsala, crossing from Turkey to Greece. There were two rather scruffy & relaxed young Turkish soldiers on the bridge, with rifles slung. They amiably asked where I was from, shook my hand, & wished me well.
I walked across the painted line in the middle of the bridge, & was confronted by three immaculate Greek soldiers, glaring at me as if I was their worst enemy & holding rifles as if they were ready to use them. The NCO in the lead held out a hand & almost spat "Passport!". He looked at it then directed me to the immigration & customs office at the end of the bridge. I glanced back & saw the Turks. They shrugged.
Greek immigration & customs treated me like dirt, scowling, asking me several times if I had any drugs, & riflng through my rucksack, mixing everything in it up but not doing a serious search.
It looked as if they thought entering Greece from Turkey was a crime. Or maybe it was being friendly with the Turkish soldiers.
Note that my general experience of Greece & Greeks is friendliness & boundless hospitality. I've worked in Greece, with Greeks, & been there on holidays. That greeting stands out because it was so untypical. My next close encounter with a Greek was a young man who came out of his house to ask if I needed any help, when I was standing beside a bus stop on the edge of Alexandroupolis (nearest significant town to the border) trying to work out if it was the right one for Thessaloniki & when the next bus was. He told me it was the right stop, but the timetable was only for local buses. Then he wandered off, returning after a little while with two cold Cokes (it was a hot day & there was no shade) to tell me that a bus was due soon. He'd phoned & checked. We sat on the kerb & chatted while drinking the Cokes, until the bus arrived. That's more typical of my experiences with both Greeks & Turks. But that border crossing . . . . I'm sure it was due to where I was coming from, my interactions with the Turks, or both.
I walked across the painted line in the middle of the bridge, & was confronted by three immaculate Greek soldiers, glaring at me as if I was their worst enemy & holding rifles as if they were ready to use them. The NCO in the lead held out a hand & almost spat "Passport!". He looked at it then directed me to the immigration & customs office at the end of the bridge. I glanced back & saw the Turks. They shrugged.
Greek immigration & customs treated me like dirt, scowling, asking me several times if I had any drugs, & riflng through my rucksack, mixing everything in it up but not doing a serious search.
It looked as if they thought entering Greece from Turkey was a crime. Or maybe it was being friendly with the Turkish soldiers.
Note that my general experience of Greece & Greeks is friendliness & boundless hospitality. I've worked in Greece, with Greeks, & been there on holidays. That greeting stands out because it was so untypical. My next close encounter with a Greek was a young man who came out of his house to ask if I needed any help, when I was standing beside a bus stop on the edge of Alexandroupolis (nearest significant town to the border) trying to work out if it was the right one for Thessaloniki & when the next bus was. He told me it was the right stop, but the timetable was only for local buses. Then he wandered off, returning after a little while with two cold Cokes (it was a hot day & there was no shade) to tell me that a bus was due soon. He'd phoned & checked. We sat on the kerb & chatted while drinking the Cokes, until the bus arrived. That's more typical of my experiences with both Greeks & Turks. But that border crossing . . . . I'm sure it was due to where I was coming from, my interactions with the Turks, or both.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Quite interesting Macron is also part of Euro leaders that come early on congratulates Sultan Erdo in his reelection. Orban is not really surprising, he has good relationship with Sultan Erdo.
Turkish online forums and media now full self congratulate from AKP supporters, but also those opposition supporters that blaming each others. Opposition infighting and failures to bring cohesive road map are what some Turkish analysts believe the reasons Sultan Erdo and AKP coalitions still winning Presidency and Parliament. This is in time on ruling coalition and Sultan Erdo most vulnerable weaken politically for the last two decades. Now they got another five years.
Even Armenian President also come early to congratulate Sultan Erdo.
Pro Russian tweets also shown Putin early congratulations to Sultan Erdo.
No Surprise also Trump come early
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
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Turkey's Erdogan prevails in election test of his 20-year rule
The win, which will steer his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, reinforces Erdogan’s image of invincibility after his redrawing of domestic, foreign and economic policy and positioning Turkey as a regional power.
www.reuters.com
This Reuters article quite balance on looking Why Sultan Erdo still winning the elections. One thing that this article mentioned and I also see in Turkish media and online forums. Turkey majority electorate is still conservative in nature.
Main opposition party the kemalist CHP aim to bring back more Nationalist and Secular type of government, perhaps more resounding with some corners of urban population. However for more conservative rurals and small cities (including those affected much by latest earth quakes), seems they see that as invitation for more liberals Euro value coming in. Turkiye conservative values see Sultan Erdo is the best bet they can get now to fend off those Euro Liberal values.
This is one of reasons why Sultan Erdo base on rural and small cities/towns still intact behind him. All this in the background of what supposedly bad political conditions of High Inflations and Economic hardship due to the quakes.
As for US, Trump as one of early congratulate side for Sultan Erdo perhaps indicating that Erdo do have more friendlier take on more conservative wing in US.
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Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
Thanks for the info and links and analysis.Turkey's Erdogan prevails in election test of his 20-year rule
The win, which will steer his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade, reinforces Erdogan’s image of invincibility after his redrawing of domestic, foreign and economic policy and positioning Turkey as a regional power.
This Reuters article quite balance on looking Why Sultan Erdo still winning the elections. One thing that this article mentioned and I also see in Turkish media and online forums. Turkey majority electorate is still conservative in nature.
Main opposition party the kemalist CHP aim to bring back more Nationalist and Secular type of government, perhaps more resounding with some corners of urban population. However for more conservative rurals and small cities (including those affected much by latest earth quakes), seems they see that as invitation for more liberals Euro value coming in. Turkiye conservative values see Sultan Erdo is the best bet they can get now to fend off those Euro Liberal values.
This is one of reasons why Sultan Erdo base on rural and small cities/towns still intact behind him. All this in the background of what supposedly bad political conditions of High Inflations and Economic hardship due to the quakes.
As for US, Trump as one of early congratulate side for Sultan Erdo perhaps indicating that Erdo do have more friendlier take on more conservative wing in US.
There might also be some psychological factors in play, especially in the quake-affected areas: after a terrible and traumatic natural disaster (and that devastating earthquake was certainly that), people often want to stick with the familiar, want continuity of leadership after their lives have been upended, even if it's "sticking with the devil they know vs the one they don't".
As for conservative private citizens in the US, they are leery of Erdogan and consider him "an Islamist out to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire" and something of a problem child in NATO. Progressives don't much like him because he's "repressive" -- and also because of the problem child in NATO thing. Most Americans are actually fairly centrist, and most probably don't think much about Turkey or Erdogan, except for feeling much sympathy because of the quake. Both Democrat and Republican politicians would have preferred an opposition win but can do business with Erdogan.
Me, I think he's quite the wheeler dealer when it comes to dealing with other countries, and he does well by himself and to the economic benefit of his country in that area.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Question will be whose among both parties that are more tolerates Sultan Erdo swings.
That's something that so far manage to be sold by Erdo and AKP. Image that Turkiye under him do for what's the best for Turkiye. Despite all pressure for hostiles neighbors and "allies".
Well, he was duly elected in an election which is deemed to be "fair", with a second round run-off.
There will always be detractors, and they might well have a point. But if the main opposition leader Kilicdaroglu isn't complaining, it is for their citizens to decide the candidate they want. Democracy is always going to be messy.
There will always be detractors, and they might well have a point. But if the main opposition leader Kilicdaroglu isn't complaining, it is for their citizens to decide the candidate they want. Democracy is always going to be messy.
Turkey is ranked 103rd on the Economist "democracy index" with a score below 5. Turkey ranks 103rd among 167 countries in global democracy index (duvarenglish.com)
Freedom House ranked Turkey as "not Free". Turkey: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House
During the campaign season, Erdogan arrested key opposition leaders and civil society activists; demonized opposition parties as Western sympathizers, coup plotters, and terrorist allies; and played the homophobic card. (“The opposition are all LGBTQ,” Erdogan said at one point.)
Erdogan also sidelined the one figure who might have been able to beat him, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who was charged with “insulting election officials” and faces a court case that threatens to ban him from politics. (As a result, Imamoglu had little choice but to stay out of the race to avoid triggering a blanket ban that would also oust him from the mayor’s office.) Erdogan, meanwhile, labeled the opposition “sluts” and attacked his opponent Kilicdaroglu as “craven, immoral, and worthless, as well as a traitor.” Erdogan wielded his near-total control of the Turkish media to change the focus of the election itself, effectively banning any discussion of critical issues such as the earthquake, the economy, and government corruption. Erdogan's Russian Victory: Turkey Is Shifting From Illiberal Democracy to Putin-Style Autocracy (foreignaffairs.com)
The Erdogan campaign even disseminated fake footage to make it seem like Kilicdaroglu supported the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party.
The state-run TV network aired 32 hours of Erdogans speeches in on month; in the same period the opposition leader Kilicdaroglu got only 32 minutes. State-run network TRT gives Erdoğan 32 hours of coverage, Kılıçdaroğlu mere 32 minutes in one month (duvarenglish.com)
Would the opposition have won in a functioning democracy? Nobody knows. I think the answer is yes.
In other news, the Lira tanked after it became clear that Erdogan won: Turkey’s lira sinks to fresh record low after Erdogan re-election (cnbc.com)
Freedom House ranked Turkey as "not Free". Turkey: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report | Freedom House
During the campaign season, Erdogan arrested key opposition leaders and civil society activists; demonized opposition parties as Western sympathizers, coup plotters, and terrorist allies; and played the homophobic card. (“The opposition are all LGBTQ,” Erdogan said at one point.)
Erdogan also sidelined the one figure who might have been able to beat him, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who was charged with “insulting election officials” and faces a court case that threatens to ban him from politics. (As a result, Imamoglu had little choice but to stay out of the race to avoid triggering a blanket ban that would also oust him from the mayor’s office.) Erdogan, meanwhile, labeled the opposition “sluts” and attacked his opponent Kilicdaroglu as “craven, immoral, and worthless, as well as a traitor.” Erdogan wielded his near-total control of the Turkish media to change the focus of the election itself, effectively banning any discussion of critical issues such as the earthquake, the economy, and government corruption. Erdogan's Russian Victory: Turkey Is Shifting From Illiberal Democracy to Putin-Style Autocracy (foreignaffairs.com)
The Erdogan campaign even disseminated fake footage to make it seem like Kilicdaroglu supported the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party.
The state-run TV network aired 32 hours of Erdogans speeches in on month; in the same period the opposition leader Kilicdaroglu got only 32 minutes. State-run network TRT gives Erdoğan 32 hours of coverage, Kılıçdaroğlu mere 32 minutes in one month (duvarenglish.com)
Would the opposition have won in a functioning democracy? Nobody knows. I think the answer is yes.
In other news, the Lira tanked after it became clear that Erdogan won: Turkey’s lira sinks to fresh record low after Erdogan re-election (cnbc.com)
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Europe breathes sigh of relief as Erdogan remains in power in Turkey
They may not admit it but most leaders on the continent are more comfortable when Turkey keeps its distance from the EU
This is quite candid and honest editor opionion on how real opinion from much of Europe (especially Western Europe) on Turkiye. In sense Sultan Erdo action toward Europe is also representing real felling between Turkiye and Its European neighbors.
Kilicdaroglu promises on getting closer to West seems not moving much swing voters, as seems they know it is 'empty' gestures in the end. Euro Zone/EU will not going to accept Turkiye no matter what. View of many in Euro zone agains Turkey will not change much as the article put, it is different culture, different religions and basically it will never be part of Europe.
Thus Sultan Erdo promises on more independent Turkiye foreign policy in the end defeat opponents promises for more Western style environment. This even with knowledge and reality of Erdogan eratic economics policy that results precarious economics conditions on Turkey. Failure of Kilicdaroglu to give better realistic alternatives is main reasons why Erdogan still win on supposedly right time for Erdogan political opponents to get him down.
When the third president candidate saying his factions give support to Erdo, it is clear to many political analysts the game is basically over for the opposition. The third candidates basically represent the swing votes , and it is means the swing votes failed to move considerably to opposition.
Your link that shown many goes to ballot box but not giving their votes to either candidates shown it all. The swing voters basically disillusioned with both candidates. Despite advantage of rulling power on media (which is not happen in Turkiye alone), this win is more to failures from main opposition giving alternatives that can be sold to much of swing voters.
I am not disagreeing on what he has done, I am asking a simple question, is the integrity of the vote in question or not? Was there ballot stuffing and were the voters threatened in any shape or form? For me, questioning this is as good as saying the average Turkish is likely bambozled into making a "wrong choice", which itself is dangerous (who are we to question them?) Does the EU feel this way? I haven't seen anything offical from election monitors of EU.
For me, he is like the Turkish version of Trump, instead of pandering to Bible belt Christians, he panders to Islamic ideals to get votes, and has clearly some dangerous ideas, not to mention his near control of the media. His attempt to play a major role in history and the region (Syria, Ukraine) to me, looks no different than Putin imagining himself to be the Big Man. But if we have to deal with Trump, then we have to deal with him.
Things like Freedom House and Democracy Index are things that I trust the least. For one, who funds them? What is their agenda? It is not different that the US getting people for a democractic conference when it is largely about trying to suite a certain political agenda. You find that raising this sort of topic among Global South will fall on deaf ears, not because they don't want to be "democracies" but socio-economic developments are far far more complex issues to deal with, and such indexes are usually quite.. naive.
I used to consult on the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business Index for developing countries. Indexes like these are useful to understand certain gaps and learnings, but it is a fool's errand to pursuit rankings for the sake of rankings, and there are a bunch of methodological challenges with such indexes. (I worked with academics to design indexes on specific topics before).
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A lot of observers have commented the election process itself had only minor irregularities, but at the same time it's clear that the elections were not fair due to the issues I mentioned in my post above. It is essential for a full democracy to have a free press. Turkey does not have a free press. Türkiye | RSF
Also, as pointed out above, putting political opponents in jail or silencing them in other ways is also not in line with a full democracy.
Erdogan's re-election dashes hopes for Turkish leader's jailed opponents | The Japan Times
Turkish court sentences Erdogan rival to jail with political ban | Reuters
Turkey: Opposition Politicians Detained for Four Years | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)
Turkish court sentences opposition leader to jail, political ban - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East
I agree, Erdogan has a lot in common with Trump and Putin. And of course we have to deal with whoever is running a country.
Yes the US has dropped on the democracy index (The Economist uses the term "flawed democracy" about the US). Still ranked higher than Turkey though. There are a lot of issues with the democratic processes in the US, but that's for another thread.
They describe their methodology and how they arrive at their conclusions. Of course you are free to disagree with their methodology. Or are you accusing them of "cheating" and not following their own methodology?
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