The unstable situation in Myanmar.

[OPSSG]

Update 7: Shooting of protesters has started in Myanmar

13. International companies are have started with their exit plans for Myanmar. Amata, Thailand's largest industrial estate developer has suspended its $1 billion project. If sanctions come or the situation becomes more unstable, analysts warn that Myanmar’s business environment might likely worsen, with investors leaving the country and triggering the currency to weaken. Japanese beverage giant Kirin decided to cut ties with Military-owned conglomerate Myanma Economic Holdings Public Co. Ltd. (MEHL) in the beer business as a result of the coup. It had jointly invested with MEHL in Myanmar Brewery and Mandalay Brewery.

14. On 9 Feb 2021, it was reported that at least six anti-coup protesters were injured in police shooting in Naypyitaw. On the fourth day of nationwide strikes against the military coup, police in Naypyitaw fired on unarmed protesters in Thapyaygone after using water cannons to disperse the crowd.

• A volunteer medic with the protest told The Irrawaddy that a man who was shot in the chest and a 20-year-old woman was shot in the head, the most serious injury.
• In a statement on the government-run MRTV channel, the military warned that "democracy can be destroyed" without discipline, and that people who "harm the state's stability, public safety and the rule of law" could face legal action. The warning came as two protestors were seriously injured after police officers shot at protesters
• People in Yangon are angry that security forces used rubber bullets and injured a number of people in Nay Pyi Taw. But protesters peacefully headed home as night curfews began.

15. It is believed that the woman shot in the head is critically injured. On 8 Jan 2021, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing gave his first televised address since the coup. He insisted the seizure of power was justified due to "voter fraud", accusing the electoral commission of failing to investigate irregularities over voter lists in November's election.

16. The Tatmadaw has strategically dismantled the organisational structure of the NLD, and the party is now leaderless with all its leaders arrested. There is a great likelihood that the military will resort to more and more force, as the bloody coup of 1988 has shown. But this is only the start of the darker scenarios for Myanmar.

17. Myanmar police (which report to the military, not civilian authorities) have charged Aung San Suu Kyi with violating the Export and Import Law for allegedly possessing illegal walkie-talkies. President Win Myint is facing similarly erroneous charges for violating the Natural Disaster Management Law by waving to supporters during the campaign period in violation of COVID-19 restrictions. The military has already announced a new cabinet with many familiar faces from the previous government of the military-affiliated Union Solidarity and Development Party.

18. On 8 Feb 2021, the UK and the European Union have issued a joint call for the United Nations Human Rights Council to hold a special session to discuss the recent military coup in Myanmar, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said. "Today, the UK and (the) EU have called for a Special Session of the #UN Human Rights Council on Myanmar on Thursday," Raab tweeted.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1358758140196622338

19. On 9 Feb 2021, New Zealand announced that it would be suspending all high-level contact with Myanmar and imposing a travel ban on its military leaders. "Our strong message is we will do what we can from here in New Zealand and one of things we will do is suspend that high level dialogue ... and make sure any funding we put into Myanmar does not in any way support the military regime," Prime Minister Ardern said. New Zealand's aid programme was worth about NZ$42 million (US$30 million) between 2018 and 2021, she said.

20. International sanctions, while most likely to target the military rather than resume broad-based punitive measures against the entire country (widely regarded as counterproductive), have failed to influence the Tatmadaw’s strategic calculus in the past. It seems fairly certain that the stubborn military brass, which regards itself as the defenders of the country’s sovereignty from both internal and external threats, will cling onto power with little regard for international opprobrium or domestic outcry.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Myanmar's security forces have been using live ammunition against anti-coup protesters in breach of international law, the UN human rights envoy says.

Myanmar coup: MPs urge UN to investigate 'gross human rights violations'

Some 300 MPs urge the UN to investigate after the reported use of live bullets against protesters.

www.bbc.com

The UN envoy also calls for economic sanctions and a ban on weapons exports to the country.

But there are also voices who call to take actions against the bussines imperium of the Tatmadaw. With these companies they could finance the coup d'etat and keep the whole country under their control.

So it is up to the foreign governments and multinationals how to handle this Myanmar.

Pak miljardenimperium van het leger aan, roepen Myanmarese activisten

Pro-democratische activisten uit Myanmar roepen op tot boycots en sancties, maar de legerleiding heeft diepe zakken.

nos.nl

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This is not a good sign...
(Looks like a BTR-3U btw)

Myanmar coup: Troops on the streets as fears of crackdown mount

Army vehicles appeared in several cities overnight, but protesters are still gathering in defiance.

www.bbc.com

 

[Feanor]

This is not a good sign...
(Looks like a BTR-3U btw)

Myanmar coup: Troops on the streets as fears of crackdown mount

Army vehicles appeared in several cities overnight, but protesters are still gathering in defiance.

www.bbc.com

Myanmar bought a number of Ukrainian light armor vehicles, including upgraded MT-LBs and BTR-3s. They tried to get a light tank on the MT-LB chassis (named MMT-40) but it's unclear whether the project went anywhere. They also purchased some surplus T-72s from Ukraine.

EDIT: Almost forgot, they had some sort agreement in the works to license produce BTR-4s in Myanmar but I don't think it ever went anywhere.

 

[OPSSG]

Update 8: More violence is expected in Myanmar

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361201833889431556

21. The United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, said he was "terrified" of the potential for violence if the planned mass protests and military troops converge. Opponents of Myanmar's military coup called for more big protests on 17 Feb 2021 to show that the army's claim of widespread public support for overthrowing elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and holding new elections was false.

​

(a) Opponents of Myanmar's military coup parked their cars in the middle of city streets and on bridges on 17 Feb 2021, pretending they had broken down to block police and army trucks moving around to break up protests. Many in Myanmar voiced scepticism at the junta's promise at a news conference on Tuesday that there would be a fair election and it would hand over power.​

​

(b) Even though Myanmar authorities have escalated their crackdown and arrested demonstrators, protesters have again taken to the streets in different parts of the country to continue to register their resentments against the coup.​

​

(c) Soldiers from the Myanmar military's light infantry divisions (LIDs) -- long documented to be engaged in human rights abuses -- have been seen in the country's largest city, Yangon, in the past week. These elite counter-insurgency forces come under direct orders from Myanmar military's commander-in-chief, Min Aung Hlaing, and they have been accused of human rights violations.​

22. The United States was "disturbed" by reports of the additional criminal charge against Aung San Suu Kyi, State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

​

(a) The US State Department has coordinated a info release with 16 other countries and the EU to condemn the coup. The US has authorized most staff members at its Yangon embassy who wish to leave Myanmar amid ongoing unrest after the military deposed the civilian government, the State Department confirmed.​

​

(b) On 16 Feb 2021, State Department spokesman Ned Price said the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Indonesian counterpart, Retno Marsudi, expressed: “deep concern over the coup in" Myanmar, and Blinken "thanked Minister Retno for her important work to bring peace to Afghanistan" during a telephone call. "Secretary Blinken agreed on the key role of ASEAN-centrality in the Indo-Pacific, and underscored the importance of protecting and preserving a free and open South China Sea," he added.​

​

(c) US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Vivian Balakrishnan spoke via telephone on 9 Feb 2021, in which they discussed regional developments including the situation in Myanmar. The call came about a week after the military seized power in Myanmar in a coup against the democratically elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was detained along with other leaders of her NLD party.​

​

(d) Dr Balakrishnan said he has "urged against widespread sanctions" in his discussions with his counterparts in other countries. In responding to Parliamentary queries he also said: "We hope fervently for national reconciliation in Myanmar. And the only way this can happen is if all parties, in good faith, sit down, talk, negotiate and achieve reconciliation.​

​

It is in that context that I express my hope that president Win Myint and the state counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi would be released from detention so that they can sit down at the negotiating table and talk."​

​

23. I strongly condemn Dr Balakrishnan’s illogical position that the discredited mainstream press in Singapore fail to be critical of or point out. The only mantra that the Singapore Government chants is that ‘widespread sanctions don’t work’ (and of course we know that sanctions alone don’t work).

​

(a) In essence Singapore’s foreign minister is saying that don’t impose more sanctions, as a starting position, and that the Tatmadaw should release jailed NLD leaders (after heaving guns put to their head) and then go into another room to negotiate with Tatmadaw (knowing the guns are kept in the next room).​

​

(b) Not sure if Singapore’s idiotic foreign minister’s chanting of mantras would be helpful to bringing pressure to resolving problems created by the Tatmadaw.​

​

(c) IMHO, Singapore can do more to work with Indonesia and assume a stronger leadership role within ASEAN; and at the very least work with the US to continue to highlight the issues created by the Tatmadaw, when the country hosts the Shangri-La Dialogue (to be held in June 2021) and to coordinate its actions with the G7 and Australia during the World Economic Forum (WEF) special annual meeting (to be held in August 2021).​

24. The Myanmar military junta, blocked social media 6 Feb 2021 in the face of increasingly significant anti-coup protests. Strangely, the junta has opted to use Facebook to communicate with the media from the administrative capital, Nay Pyi Taw.

25. During a long livestream on Facebook, Brigadier General Zaw Min Tun, spokesman for the ruling council defended the coup and security forces' handling of protesters rallying against the power grab in cities across the country. Zaw Min Tun said the military would not hold power for long. "We guarantee ... that the election will be held," he told the nearly two-hour news conference, which the military broadcast from the capital, Naypyitaw, live over Facebook, a platform it has banned. Brushing aside threats of sanctions by the US and Western countries in response to the coup, Zaw Min Tun said: "We are already expecting it. We expect some countries to implement sanctions."

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

After the young woman who was shot in the head and lost her life, more people became victim of Myanmars suppressive armed forces. At least two people have been killed during fresh protests in Myanmar against the military coup.

Myanmar coup: At least two killed as police disperse protesters

Reports from the scene say police used live ammunition at the rally in the city of Mandalay.

www.bbc.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The demonstrations are becoming larger and larger.

Honderdduizenden betogers de straat op in Myanmar, leger dreigt met geweld

Winkels en bedrijven zijn dicht. Betogers eisen dat de militaire regering, die drie weken geleden door een staatsgreep aan de macht kwam, opstapt.

nos.nl

"Businesses closed as employees joined a general strike, despite a military statement that said protesters were risking their lives by turning out."

Myanmar coup: Protesters defy military warning in mass strike

Hundreds of thousands of anti-coup protesters turn out despite a warning they are risking their lives.

www.bbc.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

The demonstrations are becoming larger and larger.

Indeed. I'm very impressed by the determination of the Burmese to oppose the coup.

Unfortunately my best guess is that the junta will just keep shooting protesters in ever larger numbers. If ordinary soldiers and officers don't mutiny then we'll be looking at thousands dead.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Yes everything can happen the coming months.
1. Will be there a second Tiananmen Square situation?
2. Will the military junta do nothing and let the people demonstrate until they are tired and out of money and food, while sacrificing the economy?
3. Or will they (partly) accept the wishes of the people and let the chosen civillian government return (with some compromises from both sides)?

All we can do is wait and see...

 

[CheeZe]

The question I'm wondering is the military logistics chain. Where are the military getting their food supplies from? If a broad range of civilians are protesting, does that mean farmers aren't selling to their food to the military/whatever organization supplies the military? Or are farmers not involved in the protests thus ensuring a steady supply of food? I would doubt that the military would depend on foreign food supplies, given their rather isolationist and "self-sustaining" stance.

 

[John Fedup]

The question I'm wondering is the military logistics chain. Where are the military getting their food supplies from? If a broad range of civilians are protesting, does that mean farmers aren't selling to their food to the military/whatever organization supplies the military? Or are farmers not involved in the protests thus ensuring a steady supply of food? I would doubt that the military would depend on foreign food supplies, given their rather isolationist and "self-sustaining" stance.

I would think the military has reasonable reserve supplies to last quite awhile. Xi will certainly offer assistance to the military usurpers who are more or less in his orbit.

 

[Ahmad]

Indonesia and Myanmar foreign ministers meet in Bangkok
Jakarta steps up push for ASEAN-led solution to Myanmar crisis

JAKARTA -- Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi met her Myanmar counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin in Bangkok on Wednesday, as Jakarta steps up its push for an Association of Southeast Asian Nations-led resolution of the crisis in Myanmar.

Marsudi traveled to the Thai capital after canceling a planned trip to the Burmese capital of Naypyitaw.

Indonesia faces the difficult task of uniting the 10-nation ASEAN bloc behind its efforts, starting with holding a ministerial meeting on the crisis.

"Thailand has conveyed its agreement, and so far ASEAN countries have expressed their commitment to support a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers," Marsudi told reporters.

Indonesia and Myanmar foreign ministers meet in Bangkok

Jakarta steps up push for ASEAN-led solution to Myanmar crisis

asia.nikkei.com

 

[Ahmad]

 

[Ahmad]

Indonesia denies plan to support new elections in Myanmar

 

[Ahmad]

Myanmar mainstream media report

Disenfranchised Myanmar voters flocked to the Indonesian Embassy in Yangon on Tuesday to protest Jakarta’s reported push for ASEAN member states to agree to a rerun of the election by the Myanmar junta, which overthrew the country’s elected civilian government. The report was later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry.

The protesters denounced the reported plan by the giant of Southeast Asia as legitimizing the junta and ignoring their electoral wishes.

News agency Reuters reported on Monday that Indonesia is pushing its Southeast Asian neighbors to agree on an action plan to ensure that the military regime keeps its promise to hold new elections and hand over power

After Embassy Protest, Indonesia Denies Backing Myanmar Regime’s Election Plan

Protesters accused Jakarta of attempting to legitimize the military regime; Indonesia later denied a Reuters report that it wants ASEAN to back a new election in Myanmar.

www.irrawaddy.com

 

[ngatimozart]

@Ahmad YOU HAVE BEEN GIVEN FOUR WARNINGS FOR BREAKING THE RULES IN ONE DAY. THAT GOES ALONG WITH THE WARNING ISSUED TO YOU YESTERDAY.

BE ADVISED ANY FURTHER BREACHS OF THE FORUM RULES WILL RESULT IN THE MODERATORS CONDSIDERING FURTHER ACTION AGAINST YOU. I STRONGLY ADVISE YOU TO READ THE RULES AGAIN.

 

[Khabaopie]

The question I'm wondering is the military logistics chain. Where are the military getting their food supplies from?

Myanmar's coup from the eyes of ethnic minorities - New Mandala

Ethnic people standing against the military are concentrating on institutional change, while majority Bamar NLD supporters focus on the release of party leaders and the formation of government.

www.newmandala.org

Why is the Kachin Independence Organization Keeping Silent on the Myanmar Coup?

From the insurgent group’s perspective, it makes little difference who roams the halls of power in Naypyidaw.

thediplomat.com

Though John has somewhat answered your question I think this source, while a little out of left field can provide more comprehensive answer. While it does not directly deal with how the military is keeping itself fed in the face of a highly intransigent populace, it does mention that military-backed political parties have managed to coopt several ethic minority groups (armed or otherwise) into supporting their coalition, notably those in Kachin and Shan states which control vast tracts of developed farmland and a major exporter of food, rubber and other cash crops to (PR)China.

Though former State Counsellor Suu Kyi enjoys broad (nigh-unanimous) support from the majority Bamar ethnic group, her policies, whether they were her notion or she was coerced into it by her power sharing agreement with the Tatmadaw, hardly endeared her to ethnic groups outside the Bamar and to some, "their lives ... would remain largely the same whether the country is ruled by the military or the NLD...".

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Sinister truth about mystery China flights

Unregistered planes have been carrying unknown goods and people between China and Myanmar.

www.nzherald.co.nz

I always wondered how much China was involved. Well this says they are... but how much No one really knows...

 

[CheeZe]

The former Myanmar ambassador to the UN pled for international support to restore the government. Doubt it will move any nation or blocs to actually act.

EDIT: He has been fired so I presume the Tatmadaw will either replace him or simply leave the seat vacant. No information on the former ambassador's current status.

 

[ngatimozart]

The former Myanmar ambassador to the UN pled for international support to restore the government. Doubt it will move any nation or blocs to actually act.

EDIT: He has been fired so I presume the Tatmadaw will either replace him or simply leave the seat vacant. No information on the former ambassador's current status.

Apparently the military junta is not recognised by the UN as the legitimate government of Myanmar and it hasn't been informed of the Ambassador's dismissal, so as far as the UN is concerned he is still the legitimate representative of Myanmar.

EDIT: Source added: Myanmar coup: UN ambassador fired after anti-army speech