The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

The reality is that simply the R.N. has a dramátic shortage of escorts to protect British shipping.

British Defence minister Tobias Ellwood told Sky the Royal Navy was too small to manage the UK's interests around the globe but had not been negligent in protecting its ships.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I worry about the insipid response by the UK govt over this seizure. It seems that HMS Montrose was not allowed or unable to take any real action. The deployment of extra ships will not help if Commanders are politically constrained.
It’s a reminder of the Iranian capture of the RN RHIB a few years ago where no resistance was allowed.
Platitudes and sanctions will not keep the maritime traffic safe, it requires immediate action and local commanders should have the appropriate ROEs
The problem is that Iran's response mirrors the UKs behavior. They seize a tanker, Iran seizes a tanker. So if the UK fires on Iranian ships seizing a UK tanker, Iran might very well respond by firing on UK ships seizing the next Iranian tanker that's shipping oil to Syria. I mean... if the goal here is start a war with Iran, this certainly works. But if the goal is just about anything else, perhaps it's better if the commanders are constrained? I'm honestly a bit at a loss as to what exactly the US and UK position here is. What do they want to accomplish? Freedom of navigation? But they seized an Iranian tanker in international waters based on national sanctions. Do US sanctions now allow US enforcement outside of the US borders? If so that's awfully close to claiming literal world domination. Or is there some nuance I'm missing here?
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for setting up this thread to consolidate the discussions.
They seize a tanker, Iran seizes a tanker. So if the UK fires on Iranian ships seizing a UK tanker, Iran might very well respond by firing on UK ships seizing the next Iranian tanker that's shipping oil to Syria.
1. The ship arrest by Gibraltar (which extends detention of Iranian oil tanker to 15 Aug 2019) and the armed and hostile acts of Iran (and the IRGC) on the high seas against innocent merchant shipping, passing through the Straits of Hormuz, in general, are not the same. See UK’s published laws and guidelines on trade with Syria: Embargoes and sanctions on Syria
  • UK is bound by domestic law to enforce trade restrictions on Syria. These are EU imposed embargoes which are directly applicable in UK law. The EU originally imposed sanctions which came into force on 10 May 2011.
  • The current trade sanction measures in force are set out in Council Decision 2012/122/CFSP which was adopted and came into force on 27 February 2012. On the same day, the EU also issued an implementing measure, Council Regulation (EU) No 168/2012, which amends Council Regulation (EU) No 36/2012.
  • The EU has also imposed a further implementing measure - Council Regulation (EU) No 509/2012 - which came into force on 17 June 2012. This measure, which also amends Council Regulation EU (No 36/2012) imposes a prohibition on the sale, supply, transfer or export of listed luxury goods and certain dual-use items and chemicals.
if the goal here is start a war with Iran, this certainly works. But if the goal is just about anything else, perhaps it's better if the commanders are constrained? I'm honestly a bit at a loss as to what exactly the US and UK position here is. What do they want to accomplish? Freedom of navigation? But they seized an Iranian tanker in international waters based on national sanctions. Do US sanctions now allow US enforcement outside of the US borders? If so that's awfully close to claiming literal world domination.
2. Given the above, not sure why you see it this way — Is your view point defendable? IMHO, there is little or no basis to claim world domination by the US. Let me add 3 points to clarify:

One, UK merchant ships have a right to trade and sail in these waters. For background, we should note that:
  • UK opposed Trump’s decision to go against the 2015 Obama nuclear deal with Iran (the trigger for today’s crisis). UK has watched with alarm as the Trump-Bolton policy of “maximum pressure,” involving sanctions and an oil embargo, has radicalised the most moderate Iranians.
  • Even as Britain backed EU attempts to rescue the nuclear deal, Theresa May, UK’s Prime Minster, and Jeremy Hunt, UK’s Foreign Secretary, tried to please Trump, whenever possible. As a result, the UK government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. See: With Recent Assaults, Iran Escalates Gulf Tensions
  • US sanctions are designed only to make things difficult for Iran (and not a blockade).
Two, what the US lacks, paradoxically, is leadership — there is no coalition of the willing.

Three, in the past, I posted to correct a new member who merely parroted Iranian propaganda. Here, I am just pointing out an alternate way of looking at the matter, that may be defendable before a functioning justice system — which the UK has. I am sure you know the difference.​

3. But I do note that this state of tension between US and Iran affects oil prices; and I am not a fan of either side. In particular, I am not a fan of this path to greater tension started by the present Trump admin. I don’t want to debate this in a nuanced manner with further subsequent posts (as this drama will drag on and I have lost interest in this topic). My lack of further comment here reflects my desire not to be so critical of Iran; but I am not blind to their actions.
I worry about the insipid response by the UK govt over this seizure. It seems that HMS Montrose was not allowed or unable to take any real action. The deployment of extra ships will not help if Commanders are politically constrained.

It’s a reminder of the Iranian capture of the RN RHIB a few years ago where no resistance was allowed.

Platitudes and sanctions will not keep the maritime traffic safe, it requires immediate action and local commanders should have the appropriate ROEs
Or is there some nuance I'm missing here?
4. IMO, ASSAIL (who a respected former Naval Officer) is just simply saying UK ROEs may be too strict — watch the video enclosed above for the Bridge to Bridge comms between a UK warship and the Iranians. He gave specific commentary on what could be improved for UK naval patrols to be more effective. Likewise, I would like to see if these ROEs need to be adjusted in light of the Iranian threat — it is clear that the Iran or it’s IRGC have attached limpet mines to merchant ships; attempted to intercept innocent shipping, from multiple countries; in particular, I dislike the fact that Iranian SAMs are being fired into airspace that has to be sanitised of civilian air traffic.
 

gazzzwp

Member
There is no point in imposing sanctions and not enforcing them. In principle the UK was correct to do that.

However anyone that undertakes an act of heroism had better have the means to withstand what comes next or face great peril.

Unbelievably that does not appear to have been considered. Everyone knows that Iran has made it clear that it will retaliate against every action made against it. It has the military means but more importantly it has overwhelming geographical advantages. This is not about the shrinking of the Royal Navy through decades of defense cuts. Britain never would have the means to defend against attacks from a nation with such easy reach to each corner of those straits. It's just a hopeless cause.

That the MOD did not consider this is of huge concern and it is easy to see with this ineptness how nations blunder into wars. The UK Government should have given the matter intense consideration before acting. That tanker was never going to reach Syria in a few hours. They sail at snails pace. That would have given the UK ample time to warn the USN about the problem to allow them to tackle it. The US is the only nation that should be engaging in maritime policing where Iran is concerned.
 

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
There is no point in imposing sanctions and not enforcing them. In principle the UK was correct to do that.

However anyone that undertakes an act of heroism had better have the means to withstand what comes next or face great peril.

Unbelievably that does not appear to have been considered. Everyone knows that Iran has made it clear that it will retaliate against every action made against it. It has the military means but more importantly it has overwhelming geographical advantages. This is not about the shrinking of the Royal Navy through decades of defense cuts. Britain never would have the means to defend against attacks from a nation with such easy reach to each corner of those straits. It's just a hopeless cause.

That the MOD did not consider this is of huge concern and it is easy to see with this ineptness how nations blunder into wars. The UK Government should have given the matter intense consideration before acting. That tanker was never going to reach Syria in a few hours. They sail at snails pace. That would have given the UK ample time to warn the USN about the problem to allow them to tackle it. The US is the only nation that should be engaging in maritime policing where Iran is concerned.
It’s not about “blundering into war”.
Firstly, British flagged ships are “sovereign territory” and should be considered thus and if British warships are present it is their duty to defend them.
The Defence Secretary, Tobias Elwood has stated of the seizure, “this is a hostile act”.
The Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt has described it as “totally and utterly unacceptable”.
So what are the Rules of Engagement upon which a Commander may act? It seems do nothing apart from some radio exchanges.
ROEs should be clear and precise and have an elevating scale stopping short of opening fire. If you don’t stop a then b will happen, if you continue, c will occur etc. it’s a case of staring down the aggressor, acting boldly and countering actions until all is exhausted.
I’m not critical of CO Montrose, he is constrained by his govt but if the RN is unable to take any action there is no point in the ships being there, it simply boosts Iranian confidence and they will continue to act in the same manner.
Like you say, unless there is a will to properly defend the British flagged ships, “it’s a hopeless case”.
 

milliGal

Member
The savetheroyalnavy website put out a nice summary of the situation.

Links to MoD released screenshots of HMS Montrose's radar screens clearly show the seizure took place outside of Iranian waters so I think we can rule out any GPS spoofing.

The British seizure of the Iranian tanker seems to me to have a reasonably sound legal basis, and statements made shortly after by the UK Government stating they would release it if Iran could Guarantee it would not head to Syria paint them as the far more reasonable party in this dispute.

I had a fair amount of sympathy for Iran during the recent escalation with the US as I viewed that as almost entirely mess of the Trump administrations making. The international community also seemed to be largely on their side there too. This escalation is hard to view in such a sympathetic light however, and I think Iran has perhaps overstepped their bounds here.

I am not convinced more relaxed ROE would be helpful. The region appears poised on the brink of war right now and if any party opens fire it could set off a disastrous chain of events. HMS Montrose successfully repelled the previous hijacking attempt with their current ROE regime, the problem is that it simply can't cover the entire Gulf region on it's own.
 
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Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
There is no point in imposing sanctions and not enforcing them. In principle the UK was correct to do that.

However anyone that undertakes an act of heroism had better have the means to withstand what comes next or face great peril.

Unbelievably that does not appear to have been considered. Everyone knows that Iran has made it clear that it will retaliate against every action made against it. It has the military means but more importantly it has overwhelming geographical advantages. This is not about the shrinking of the Royal Navy through decades of defense cuts. Britain never would have the means to defend against attacks from a nation with such easy reach to each corner of those straits. It's just a hopeless cause.

That the MOD did not consider this is of huge concern and it is easy to see with this ineptness how nations blunder into wars. The UK Government should have given the matter intense consideration before acting. That tanker was never going to reach Syria in a few hours. They sail at snails pace. That would have given the UK ample time to warn the USN about the problem to allow them to tackle it. The US is the only nation that should be engaging in maritime policing where Iran is concerned.
What must be kept in mind is that in the UK (as with us etc ) the justice system is kept separate from the government and the government is required to maintain this separation, While in Iran this is not always the case. The UK government, once it had signed up to the protocol of sanctions on Syria would have been bound by it's own judicial norms to take action. However Iran is not bound by the judicial norms and either does not understand or may even despise the judicial system of a western democracy and will act differently to the same situation than the UK.
 
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gazzzwp

Member
What must be kept in mind is that in the UK (as with us etc ) the justice system is kept separate from the government and the government is required to maintain this separation, While in Iran this is not always the case. The UK government, once it had signed up to the protocol of sanctions on Syria would have been bound by it's own judicial norms to take action. However Iran is not bound by the judicial norms and either does not understand or may even despise the judicial system of a western democracy and will act differently to the same situation than the UK.
The UK will have to send over a negotiating team to resolve this. Rallying military support within Europe will be far too slow and in the end will fall short of a good solution. If the UK cannot solve this through use of Naval assets then the EU won't.

This will I believe turn out to be a humiliating lesson for the UK. Think before you act and blunder into a situation you have no hope of winning. I see the US is eerily quite over this. Could the recent indiscretion by the UK Ambassador to the US have anything to do with this I wonder? Who knows. I remember thinking at the time the email was leaked that this is not the time for the UK to be upsetting POTUS.

If the incident teaches us a lesson for the future then all well and good. That lesson is:

Never underestimate how hard nosed, resolute and determined a nation can be. Particularly when it holds all the cards. Only play the game if you have robust support and a winning hand.
 

Ranger25

Active Member
Staff member

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Gibraltar has released the Iranian oil tanker Grace 1 that was seized by Royal Marines about 6 weeks ago. The crew have been released from detention and returned to the ship. "The chief minister of Gibraltar, Fabian Picardo, said in a statement on Thursday that he had “received written assurance” from Iran the previous day that 'if released, the destination of Grace 1 would not be an entity that is subject to European Union sanctions. In light of the assurances we have received,” he added, “there are no longer any reasonable grounds for the continued legal detention of the Grace 1.' ” The US has applied to the Gibraltar Court to seize the Grace 1, that now are being considered, but once the ship has sailed into international waters it will be beyond the Courts jurisdiction. The question now is if or when the Iranians will release the detained UK tanker and its crew. The next question is whether or not the US will attempt to seize the Grace 1 on the high seas? If so would that not be tantamount to piracy?
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
I see there is a coalition of UK, US, Australia and Bahrain.

Australia to Join US, UK, and Bahrain in Patrolling Strait of Hormuz
Australia Is Third Country to Join U.S. in Patrolling Strait of Hormuz

More heavy lifting. Frigate and a P8. While ~20% of Australia's oil comes through there, none of it is on Australian flagged vessels.

I assume This will just be filed under operation manitou?
Operation MANITOU | Royal Australian Navy

I thought this bit from Japan was interesting..
Australia's decision to join U.S.-led maritime mission off Iran likely to heighten pressure on Japan | The Japan Times

Wondering if Japan should do the same. Take more of an active role. Or at least backfill US/AU duties.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The released tanker, under a new name, apparently has successfully delivered its cargo to Syria. The British tanker is still being held by Iran, and the US shortly prior to this stated that they had no plans to seize the Iranian tanker.

In my opinion it's difficult to escape the conclusion that colonelcassad states in his blog post; when confronted with serious force, the US and UK back off.

Adrian Darya 1 разгрузился в Сирии
Pentagon chief says he currently has no plan to seize Iranian tanker Adrian Darya 1 - Reuters
 

SSJArcher Krich

New Member
I have to agree with colonelcassad's opinion, as related by @Feanor

There are ample reasons to believe that the American led security architecture that a number of countries have come to rely upon for their existence, prosperity or even ''freedom'' is fraying.

On the issue of Iran, I also believe Iran has attained certain critical defence technologies that make a war with Iran unwinnable.

We have seen how Trump has come to meet and greet Kim Jong Un after his ICBM and nuclear weapons tests. Given that Iran has a larger, educated and talented population, that Iran is not as isolated or oppressive as the DPRK, that Iran is a close partner of the DPRK in defence affairs and that Iranians have a proud history and a talented population in a large enough country with difficult-to-conquer, mountainous terrain and a strategic location next to the Straits of Hormuz, a war with Iran will be unwinnable.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have to agree with colonelcassad's opinion, as related by @Feanor

There are ample reasons to believe that the American led security architecture that a number of countries have come to rely upon for their existence, prosperity or even ''freedom'' is fraying.

On the issue of Iran, I also believe Iran has attained certain critical defence technologies that make a war with Iran unwinnable.

We have seen how Trump has come to meet and greet Kim Jong Un after his ICBM and nuclear weapons tests. Given that Iran has a larger, educated and talented population, that Iran is not as isolated or oppressive as the DPRK, that Iran is a close partner of the DPRK in defence affairs and that Iranians have a proud history and a talented population in a large enough country with difficult-to-conquer, mountainous terrain and a strategic location next to the Straits of Hormuz, a war with Iran will be unwinnable.
I don't think that a war with Iran would be unwinnable. First and foremost a military victory depends on what objectives are set before and during the course of this war. Second, Iran really isn't powerful enough to stand up to the US. So I don't think the lesson here is that the US is now too weak to take on Iran. I think the lesson here is that when dealing with issues that are too small to cause a war by themselves, speaking with the US from a position of force gets results. It's a startling outcome because it strongly suggests that the legal niceties and general principles set up behind international relations over the past ~70 years are rapidly giving way to a different kind of behavior pattern.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
It depends on how you define winnable. Certainly we could decimate them. But what then? We could not expect to invade and get them subjugated. It would be another Vietnam or Iraq, on steroids. So, the real question is: what are our goals, and what is the plan to achieve them? I don’t think the current administration has a clue as to how to get there.

Art
 

cdxbow

Well-Known Member
It depends on how you define winnable. Certainly we could decimate them. But what then? We could not expect to invade and get them subjugated. It would be another Vietnam or Iraq, on steroids. So, the real question is: what are our goals, and what is the plan to achieve them? I don’t think the current administration has a clue as to how to get there.

Art
Probably had thoughts similar to to post Iraq war #2 - After defeat a coherent democratic opposition would arise and it would be all kumba-ya's afterwards. Fantasy land stuff it was, made worse by poor planning and worse implementation. Mind you, modern Iraq only came into being after the partition of the Ottermman Empire and always has been a fractious entity and the chances of easily forming an effective government in an area torn by sectarian violence and no clear sense of an Iraqi identity must have been low.

The Persians, on the other hand have a long history spanning thousands of years including 2 empires. How would they respond to an attack? There is a significant and reasonably well organised opposition in Iran, centered around notions of 'Persian nationalism' who could provide a decent nucleus for a post invasion government but it may be they rally against an attack and continue against the invaders. It would be a very nasty war that would extend widely. I really hope it doesn't happen.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Probably had thoughts similar to to post Iraq war #2 - After defeat a coherent democratic opposition would arise and it would be all kumba-ya's afterwards. Fantasy land stuff it was, made worse by poor planning and worse implementation. Mind you, modern Iraq only came into being after the partition of the Ottermman Empire and always has been a fractious entity and the chances of easily forming an effective government in an area torn by sectarian violence and no clear sense of an Iraqi identity must have been low.

The Persians, on the other hand have a long history spanning thousands of years including 2 empires. How would they respond to an attack? There is a significant and reasonably well organised opposition in Iran, centered around notions of 'Persian nationalism' who could provide a decent nucleus for a post invasion government but it may be they rally against an attack and continue against the invaders. It would be a very nasty war that would extend widely. I really hope it doesn't happen.
An all out invasion would indeed be messy. But what about a limited, primarily aerial and naval conflict, over the Hormuz shipping lanes? Because at the end of the day, that's what was on the line here with the arrest of tankers by both sides. Despite the attempts made by Iran to develop modern systems in both fighter jets and air defense, it's not exactly a great power in either area. They could and quite likely would disrupt shipping for a time, but how long of time is up for debate. The ultimate outcome I think is not. The only real ending here is a defeat for Iran, and a return of the shipping lanes to their pre-war status quo, with additional restrictions on Iranian oil exports.
 
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