The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Fredled]

Half the budget of Ukraine is paid by foreign countries. What is the definition of "precarious" in your universe?

You ar right to write "foreign countries" in plural. Aid to Ukraine is much more stable than aid to Russia. Ukraine is helped by many countries from North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Thanks to this, if one donor decides to stop the aid (e.g. the US) and all the others keep donating, they still get enough to stay afloat.

By contrast, if China pulls the plug, it's "game over" for the Putin's regime instantly.

 

[rsemmes]

You ar right to write "foreign countries" in plural. Aid to Ukraine is much more stable than aid to Russia. Ukraine is helped by many countries from North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. Thanks to this, if one donor decides to stop the aid (e.g. the US) and all the others keep donating, they still get enough to stay afloat.
By contrast, if China pulls the plug, it's "game over" for the Putin's regime instantly.

Because China is, and has been, paying half the Russian budget?
In your universe?

 

[rsemmes]

Is the crossroad front, Nova Poltavka, starting to crumble?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Kalibrated is, usually, more than a bit optimistic, but I got this.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250514-05.jpg

 

[Fredled]

Russians have been advancing in this direction for four or five months, progressing a little bit every day.

Because China is, and has been, paying half the Russian budget?

No, but it's clear that without China, Russians would be forced to stop the war.

 

[rsemmes]

Russians have been advancing in this direction for four or five months, progressing a little bit every day.
No, but it's clear that without China, Russians would be forced to stop the war.

We have been looking at those small gains all the time, this looks different. I guess that in one week we will known (if it's just more of the same), but someone may have that information already.

It is clear in your universe.
Because of these small, but steady losses, and the prospect of losing provinces, there is a feeling in Kiev that they are not losing the war and therefore, that they don't need to negotiate a peace deal now. It's extremely risky, but I think they don't understand in Kiev, that they are taking these losses by pushing their military to the limit, for over two years already. They don't understand how thin is their margin and how clear is their inferiority on the ground. Not only Zelenski, but the entire political class is unaware of the reality of the situation.

 

[Feanor]

Is the crossroad front, Nova Poltavka, starting to crumble?

Kalibrated Ukraine Map - Google My Maps

Kalibrated Maps is developed by (https://x.com/squatsons) ). It was created with the aim of providing a publicly available but accurate control map of Ukraine. The map is updated based on confirmed information but it is still under development and may have some mistakes.

www.google.com

Kalibrated is, usually, more than a bit optimistic, but I got this.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/images/map-russo-ukraine-20250514-05.jpg

Short answer - yes. This is a dangerous axis for Ukraine since it can threaten Pokrovsk-Mirnograd from the north-east and Konstantinovka from the west.

EDIT: I think suriyakmaps shows a more nuanced picture, especially vis-a-vis Russian advances north of Avdeevka. The Russian gains in Mirolyubovka and Malinovka seem to set the stage for a push notrth-west from there. It's not even clear that Novaya Poltavka itself needs to fall for a move against Mirnograd.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.33499189775508%2C37.586603476284495&z=11

 

[Fredled]

Ukrainians expect increased Russian attacks in the next months. They say that the Russians increase their forces on the front line by 8 to 9000 soldiers every month. It's not going to be easier for Ukraine. That's why Putin has shown that he is not interested to negotiate. But he made a big mistake by proposing "direct talks" while knowing that himself, he wouldn't come to the talks. This is one more element bringing the US closer to Europe and Ukraine. Especially since Donald Trump was ready to come too. Putin doesn't want to see Zelensky face to face. And doesn't want to see Trump face to face neither. The odds that the US will increase its military aid to Ukraine are higher and higher.