The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Another Russian Su down. Another one downed by the Russians themselves, now per Ukrainians:

Dnipro Osint ⟨ Гарбуз ⟩

⚡ Російський Панцир-С1 з Балаклавського району відпрацював по російському ⚠️ Су-27 над Севастополем. Пілот живий, літак упав у море біля Мартинової бухти 44.616931578353054, 33.49998443377439 ️Dnipro | Deployment Map

t.me

 

[Feanor]

I agree. I also think Odesa could be the line in the sand as far as NATO is concerned. The French are already making noises about deploying non-combatant troops in Ukraine. I suspect Poland would support them. I believe it is called the Tripwire strategy.

It's a rather unlikely line. Why not draw the line near Uzhgorod or Lutsk? They seem about as likely to fall to Russia as Odessa.

Odesa: Russian retaliated for the Belgorod Zoo. Botanical garden damaged by Russian strike..

It would be nice to get some more details. Russia typically uses PGMs for these long range strikes. So why the botanical garden? And of course the source is garbage.

 

[Fredled]

I agree. I also think Odesa could be the line in the sand as far as NATO is concerned. The French are already making noises about deploying non-combatant troops in Ukraine. I suspect Poland would support them. I believe it is called the Tripwire strategy.

I don't know if Odesa or another city is a line in the sand. But I think that should the Russians advance too far to the west, then we may see some East-European forces enter Ukraine to counter them. But I would think more about the North-West. If Russians start to invade the region of Lvov or Ivano-Frankisk, I almost sure that Poles will come with their tanks to stop them. Yet, not in the context of NATO, and maybe with the disapproval of some NATO members, because NATO can't legally intervene in such case.

I would be very surprised if the Americans or Germans would join the initiative of sending ground troops to the rescue. But that's just my opinion.

 

[seaspear]

With previous Russian missile attacks on Ukraine overflying Poland is there a case for Poland to be able to shoot such when within range even if it meant that such missiles were overflying Ukraine at the time ?

 

[Fredled]

On the night and morning of March 29, Russians attacked three DTEK thermal power plants among other energy infrastructure objects.
Russians still attempt to disrupt industrial production, military production in particular by shutting down the networks. Maybe also to create the sensation that Zelensky is unable to protect his own people.
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After a Russian cruise missile flew through Poland, a Military drone crashes in Romania, 23 km from border with Ukraine. Here it's not a few debris, a few meters beyond the border with Ukraine, but a full drone, 28km inside Romania.
The origine of the drone has not been identified. Investigation is going on. Likely a Shahed type.
It created a 4m wide crater upon impact, suggesting that it exploded with a significant charge.
IMO it's unlikely that Ukraine would send a kamikaze drone in this direction.
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Russian warplanes have accidentally dropped two aerial bombs over Russia's Belgorod region.

in the last week alone, 11 FAB aerial bombs fell in this Russian region.

Apparently Russians are not complete morons and they have disabling mechanisms on their gliding bombs in case they would miss their target or fall accidentally. If the info is accurate, these FAB's are less so.

These bombs fell quiet far from their targets. At least 10km. Unless the target was the Free Russian Legion inside Russia?
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After Zaluhzny was appointed ambassador to UK, Danilov will become Ambassador to the Republic of Moldova.
Either Zelensky wants to send people he disagree with far away, or, to the contrary, he gives them important diplomatic roles.

let's see if Danilov will still call for the imminent dismantling of the Russian state...
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And of course the source is garbage.

Yes, of course, it's the official (or one of the official) news website of Ukraine. But it gives more details than mainstream, western news websites.
I don't read the Russian press because it makes me feel depressed.
(Short video snipets on Colonel Cassad are OK).

 

[Fredled]

With previous Russian missile attacks on Ukraine overflying Poland is there a case for Poland to be able to shoot such when within range even if it meant that such missiles were overflying Ukraine at the time ?

Yes. I remember reading an article about Poland allowing its air defence force to shot down Russian missiles targeting Ukraine or flying over Ukraine if they are within range. And placing some SAM units near the border with Ukraine. Why they didn't intercept the missile while it was over Poland, I don't know. Maybe because it wasn't within range despite being over Poland. In this case Poland didn't dispatch meaningful air defence force in the area. Or they wanted to see where it will go...

If Poles had the possibility to destroy Russian missiles over Ukraine, they would do it, period. Then Putin can still try to portray this as an agression against Russia...

 

[Feanor]

Yes, of course, it's the official (or one of the official) news website of Ukraine. But it gives more details than mainstream, western news websites.
I don't read the Russian press because it makes me feel depressed.
(Short video snipets on Colonel Cassad are OK).

Do you have a source that covers the actual damage? Anything with footage would be ideal. As it stands, we have basically unsubstantiated claims from a propaganda-laden outlet.

Yes. I remember reading an article about Poland allowing its air defence force to shot down Russian missiles targeting Ukraine or flying over Ukraine if they are within range. And placing some SAM units near the border with Ukraine. Why they didn't intercept the missile while it was over Poland, I don't know. Maybe because it wasn't within range despite being over Poland. In this case Poland didn't dispatch meaningful air defence force in the area. Or they wanted to see where it will go...

If Poles had the possibility to destroy Russian missiles over Ukraine, they would do it, period. Then Putin can still try to portray this as an agression against Russia...

I'm not so sure. Making a statement is one thing. Actually doing something is another. This could trigger a conflict, with Russia claiming a right to engage the SAMs in question. Shooting down a single Russia missile is one thing, systematically providing SAM coverage to Ukrainian border regions is another. The former isn't particularly meaningful, especially when you consider that SAMs are expensive, and the action is inherently dangerous. The latter I suspect would come with a substantial risk of escalation.

I believe if Poland wanted to engage Russian inbounds over Ukraine they certainly have the ability to deploy quite a few SAMs to the border, and scramble jets. Russia has truck L'vov and other parts of western Ukraine often enough. I believe they have not done so to avoid escalating the situation and provoking Russia.

 

[seaspear]

A question would then be how does Poland defend its borders from shortcuts from drones and missiles which are using Polish territory to evade Ukraine defences ,should Poland wait till the missile or drone actually crosses the border which then becomes an issue of the damage from such an object landing in Poland

 

[Feanor]

A question would then be how does Poland defend its borders from shortcuts from drones and missiles which are using Polish territory to evade Ukraine defences ,should Poland wait till the missile or drone actually crosses the border which then becomes an issue of the damage from such an object landing in Poland

Let me be clear. I was responding to what I believe is actually happening. Your question is a hypothetical. Before addressing it, I'd like to make a couple of points. Is there evidence that Russian inbounds are using Polish airspace to evade Ukrainian air defenses? In what way would Russia even do so? Ukrainian radars can presumably see across the border. Is it that once across the border Ukraine won't engage them and Poland won't either? This seems murky. Russian strikes on areas close to the Polish border are an absolute minority of all strikes, and it's a hard to reach area for Russia. This makes is a desirable place to in principle hide things, like repair facilities for western kit (possibly staffed with foreign specialists?). So the discussion isn't completely moot. In fact if things continue, we may see a tension point occur just along these lines.

Now on to the actual hypothetical. How does Poland defend its borders? Well presumably the same way anyone else does. Air space control assets to detect inbounds and vector intercepts if necessary. You could put a fighter pair on stand-by if you're anticipating this being a regular issue. You could station additional SAMs and launch as soon as they cross into your airspace. You could also generally ignore them, if you're reasonably certain they're going to land on the Ukrainian side of the border.

 

[seaspear]

This article admittedly from WIKI does supply some context to missiles from both sides crossing the border ,some can be linked to engagement by Ukraine on inbound missiles ,but a cruise missile would certainly have an its own navigation pre-set

2022 missile explosion in Poland - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russian missile entered Polish airspace during attacks on Ukraine | Euractiv

A Russian cruise missile briefly crossed into Polish airspace during an overnight air strike on the western regions of Ukraine, the Polish armed forces said on Sunday.

www.euractiv.com

 

[Feanor]

I will try to make an update post either today or tomorrow, but a quick preview. It appears Ukrainian reserves around Donetsk that were deployed about ~1.5 months ago have been chewed up in the fighting and Russia has resumed advances everywhere, gaining ground in Novomihailovka, which appears to be about to fall, and Pervomayskoe. Russia has also started small movements north-east of Krasnogorovka, and resumed pushing west towards Kurakhovo. In the grand scheme of things these advances are relatively small, but they are definite alarm bells.

 

[Fredled]

......
I believe if Poland wanted to engage Russian inbounds over Ukraine they certainly have the ability to deploy quite a few SAMs to the border, and scramble jets. Russia has truck L'vov and other parts of western Ukraine often enough. I believe they have not done so to avoid escalating the situation and provoking Russia.

I'm really curious why Poland didn't intercept this cruise missile. Either they didn't have SAM in the area, or they thought that shooting it down would put local populations at risk.
yes, it's possible that they don;t try to intercept Russian missiles flying over Ukraine by fear that Russia would then hit the SAM units in Poland. This make sens because if Russia does that the whole NATO will be scrambled to protect Poland. Neither Russia nor Poland wishes that. As you said there has been few strikes on the region near Poland lately and it's not essential for Ukraine that Poland helps intercept missiles in this region. If it would become critical, then I think Poland would react.

About the Odessa botanic garden; I didn't know that this topic was so dear to you. I'm afraid that we won't find sources of informations other than Ukrainian ones. Here a Y!News article showing smashed glass from the greenhouse. But they still take their informations from official Ukrainian outlet. Here the Facebook page of somebody (the director?) from the Botanical garden.
So I read Ukrinform directly (the English translation).

Why did the Russian struck it? It's not clear if it was hit directly or collaterally. But it's the closest target to a zoo.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Oskol front.

Ukraine has reportedly pushed Russia out of Sin'kovka, again.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 761: Situation on northeastern front: During the last three days Ukrainian Army retook control over most of the northern part of Syn'kivka forcing the withdrawal of Russian Army towards the forest and the northern plantations. Map: [...

t.me

Some back and forth fighting near Terny, no decisive gains or reversals even at the tactical level.

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 761: Situation north of Donetsk: Positional battles continue at the eastern outskirts of Terny with Russian Army making small gains and small retreats in this axis. Map: [...

t.me

Russian forces observing a knocked out Leo-2A5 (Strv-122). If the ID is accurate this is likely somewhere north of Torskoe. Reportedly it was immobilized on a landmine.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Осмотр ВС РФ поврежденного Strv 122.

t.me

Dambiev

Подорвавшийся на минах шведский танк Strv 122A (модификация немецкого Leopard 2A5), стоявший на вооружении украинских формирований.

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Осмотр ВС РФ поврежденного на минах Strv 122, (вот этого - https://t.me/btvt2019/11068) видимых повреждений кроме ходовой внутри нет. В боеукладке можно видеть 120MM HE PROGRAMMABLE DM11 (https://t.me/btvt2019/3060, https://t.me/btvt2019/3063).

t.me

Seversk bulge.

Russian forces have launched a series of attacks across the Sukhaya Plotva river in the southern part of the bulge. The river is, more or less, the front line in the area, and Ukrainian positions beyond it are on a hill line. The action in question was reported almost a week ago and we have little to no corroboration which suggests the attacks failed, but we don't have clear confirmation.

Рыбарь

❗️ Северский участок: продвижение ВС РФ к окраинам Раздоловки обстановка к 9.00 25 марта 2024 года На Северском участке на рубеже Раздоловка — Веселое после длительного затишья фиксируется значительное продвижение российских подразделений. ▪️По данным наших источников, украинские формирования...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/25/20240325001935-59192149.jpg

Colonelcassad

Сообщают о продвижении ВС РФ в южном части Северского выступа и в районе Раздоловки. На прошлой неделе наши войска также продвигались в полях и посадках между Раздоловкой и Веселым.

t.me

Russia hit allegedly an FH-70 howitzer near Seversk. Combat in this area is heating up in general.

Оружейный Мастер

ВС РФ метким выстрелом уничтожили натовскую гаубицу FH-70 на окраине Северска Оружейный Мастер|Подписаться

t.me

Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russia has reportedly taken Krasnoe, Ukrainian forces withdrawing after Russian forces took the hill north of town. Russian forces are now less then 1km away from Chasov Yar after inching forward along the road towards the town. In the east the town has a high-rise apartment neighborhood called Canal, because it's on the left shore of the Canal, and therefore potentially exposed to a Russian assault. Russian forces have also advanced north of Klescheevka, south of Krasnoe, but the ruins of the village itself are in Ukrainian hands. There are also reports of Russian advances inside Bogdanovka.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ВС РФ освободили Красное в ДНР и улучшили тактическое положение по переднему краю на донецком направлении, — Минобороны t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Часов Яр: продвижение в Красном и окрестностях обстановка к 17.00 23 марта 2024 года ВС РФ смогли существенно продвинуться на Бахмутском направлении, выбив противника из Ивановского и заняв несколько опорных пунктов. Первая информация о наступлении начала появляться еще вчера, а...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/23/20240323170828-e6d6906e.jpg

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 759: Situation west and north of Bakhmut: After one month of combats Russian Army took full control over the town of Ivanivske. The capture of part of Baba Mountain forced Ukrainian Army to retreat into the rest of the mountain complex and the surrounding hills and...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 760: Situation west and south of Bakhmut: Russian Army began advancing south of Ivanivske after the capture of the town. In addition, troops restarted advances north of Klishchiivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 762: Situation north of Bakhmut: During the last 36 hours Russian Army entered in new areas inside Bohdanivka reaching the center of the locality following the withdrawal of Ukrainian Army. In addition, Russian troops made small advances in the forest area northwest of...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 764: Situation north of Bakhmut: During the last three days Russian Army managed to capture the first trenches east of "Kanal Microdistrict" of Chasiv Yar city which is now between 500-800 meters from Russian forces. Map: [...

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Битва за Часов Яр: продвижение ВС РФ в Богдановке обстановка к 8.00 25 марта 2024 года Российские подразделения продолжают наступать в направлении Часов Яра на нескольких участках. ▪️в Сети появились кадры со стороны противника, подтверждающие сведения о продвижении российских войск вдоль...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/25/20240325002357-316e7dae.jpg

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️Десант прорывает оборону ВСУ, вплотную приближаясь к Часов Яру ▪️Наступая от Артёмовска (Бахмута) силы ВДВ и ЮВО в последние дни смогли разгромить ряд подразделений ВСУ, занять крупные опорники и приблизиться к важному городу Часов Яр. 98-я ивановская дивизия ВДВ уверенно продвигается вперёд...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Противник на утро признает продолжающееся продвижение ВС РФ к окраинам Часов Яра. Также вчера к западу от Артемовска был освобожден поселок Красное. За Богдановку бои пока продолжаются.

t.me

Avdeevka area.

Russia is continuing the push westward, entering the fields west of Tonen'koe. It's interesting that after the fall of Avdeevka Russia has made no moves northward, continuing the push westward. Russian forces have also filled in the gaps between Orlovka and Berdychy, crossed the river, and began pushing into Semenovka. Inside Berdychy Russia has gained considerable ground and now holds about half of the village, and are also advancing north of it. The locale is poised to fall.

Colonelcassad

Противник признает дальнейшую потерю позиций в районе Тоненького и продвижение ВС РФ к северо-западу и западу от поселка. Несмотря на все усилия, остановить продвижение ВС РФ к западу от Авдеевки противник не может. Развязанный нацистами террор является прямым следствием резкого ухудшения...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 759: Situation west of Avdivka: Russian Army continue advancing west of Tonenke while at the same time troops took control over new forest belts at the eastern shore of Durna river between Orlivka and Berdychi. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 760: Situation west of Avdivka: During the last hours Russian Army made significant advances southwest of Tonenke. The capture of this locality allowed troops to move through the plantations east of Yasnobrodivka (talked about it some weeks ago) and the northern part...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 762: Situation west of Avdivka: Russian Army made new small advances north of Berdychi and in the eastern shore of Durna river. In addition, Russian troops began crossing the river to the western shore opposite to Orlivka and south of Semenivka. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 761: Situation west of Avdivka: Russian Army began advancing north of Berdychi and reached the small pond adjacent to the locality. Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=48.185206577352865%2C37.658134745894344&z=13 ]

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 763: Situation west of Avdivka: Russian Army consolidated positions in the western shore of Durna river and entered in the first buildings of Semenivka from the south. Moreover, Russian troops took control over new parts of Berdychi which is now evenly divided with...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 764: Situation west of Avdivka: During the last hours Ukrainian Army retreated from the northern part of Berdychi towards the western shore of Durna river. No map changes in the rest of the front. Map: [...

t.me

Suriyakmaps

Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 766: Situation west of Avdivka: Russian Army made new advances west of Tonenke in the direction of Durna river and Umanske. On the other hand, Russian troops are making minimal advances in the southern part of Semenivka. Important to note that in this axis Ukrainian...

t.me

Colonelcassad

На утро противник признает потерю части позиций в районе Семенки и переход южной части поселка в серую зону по мере того, как ВС РФ усиливают давление со стороны Орловки. Также продолжается и штурм Бердычей. В поселке идут ожесточенные бои.

t.me

Рыбарь

❗️ Авдеевское направление: продвижение ВС РФ в полях к юго-западу от Тоненького обстановка по состоянию на 17:00 29 марта 2024 года ▪️Российские войска после освобождения Тоненького и зачистки прилегающей местности срезали «вклинение» на рубеже Водяное — Тоненькое. Опубликованные противником...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/29/20240329171231-1a5d8ac8.jpg

Colonelcassad

По ситуации на Авдеевском направлении. В населенном пункте Семёновка сохраняется высокое огневое давление. В ответ на артиллерийский огонь по ВС РФ, наши боги войны поливают вражеские позиции огнем, не позволяя подавить пехоту. Наши воины продолжают вгрызаться в землю и укреплять позиции для...

t.me

Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian SP howitzer, allegedly a Krab or AS-90. I can't make out the type, we have no proof of movement or fires, and there is no fire or secondary explosions. In other words, it could be another type of howitzer, or even a decoy.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

⚔️ "Ланцет" группировки ️ уничтожил польского "Краба" на Авдеевском направлении Российские бойцы засекли польскую самоходная гаубица калибра 155 мм AHS Krab с помощью БпЛА, после чего за ней вылетели. @btr80

t.me

Рубрика от Ледка

AS-90 - уничтожена Донецкая облсть. Успешное поражение замаскированой САУ (ВСУ) барражирующим боеприпасом X-52 14 брспн Source: Telegram ; Telegram #Ланцет

t.me

Russia has hit Ocheretino again.

Colonelcassad

Ночью ВС РФ уничтожили располагу ВСУ в Очеретино. Очеретино используется противником для переброски сил на Авдеевское направление.

t.me

Russian T-90M with a new EW system, knocked out and finished of by a quadcopter grenade drope. Note the extra layer of K-1 on the roof.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Любопытный Т-90М уничтожен сбросами –первых поверх штатной ДЗ башни установлен слой Контакта-1 с зазором от крыши, также кроме «Лесочка» имеется новый комплект РЭБ, если я правильно разобрал на кадрах. Источник видео.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Footage of a knocked out Abrams near Berdychy, unclear if we've seen it before.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

Наши бойцы уничтожили еще 1 американский танк Abrams у Авдеевки ▪️Удар "Ланцета" пришёлся в башню M1A1SA Abrams в районе села Соловьево. ▪️Перед атакой цели дрон проводит маневр уклонения от вражеского огня. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Ukrainian T-72M1 knocked out and finished off near Avdeevka.

Telegram: Contact @Rubric_lossesvsu

t.me

A knocked out Ukrainian T-64BV somewhere in the Avdeevka area. Unclear if one of the ones we've seen before.

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

Two knocked out M113s near Lastochkino. The numbers of captured M113s are growing. At some point it will make sense for Russia to start using them.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Russia hauling away another Bradley near Avdeevka.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian soldiers, 1st Slavyansk MRBde posing with a captured Marder.

Telegram: Contact @bmpd_cast

t.me

Something interesting apparently took place in Berdychy where Russia used a swarm of at least 5 small ground drones carrying automatic weapons as part of the attack. Two drones were lost.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Pervomayskoe area.

Russian forces are continuing to gain ground in the area, reportedly now holding 80% of Pervomayskoe. It's interesting that the area between Russian positions in Pervomayskoe and Nevel'skoe remains in Ukrainian hands. It's likely Ukrainian forces will be pushed out of that area eventually. Other intersting piece is that Russia's northern push into Pervomayskoe from Vodyanoe failed. Russia instead has resumed frontal advances.

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Minor Russian advances south of Nevel'skoe, towards Krasnogorovka.

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Mar'inka area.

Russian strike on Krasnogorovka. Russia has recently been pushed out of some areas in the town and is hanging on to a small foothold in the south.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Ukrainian T-72AV destroyed in Krasnogorovka.

Telegram: Contact @Rubric_lossesvsu

t.me

Russian forces are continuing to creep forward in Georgievka. Russia needs to secure flanks west of Pobeda, and in Krasnogorovka, to realistically push onward here.

Telegram: Contact @rybar

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/29/20240329151138-17d82a5c.jpg

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Russian strike dropped the rail bridge towards Kurakhovo from Novaya Il'inka to the north. This rail bridge is a choke point in a rail line that leads to Krasnogorovka.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

In Novomihailovka Russia is steadily gaining ground inside the village, and north of it. Ukrainian defences aren't collapsing but Ukrainian forces are definitely being pushed out much faster then before. Russian troops now hold over half the village.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Telegram: Contact @rybar

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/28/20240328174851-459f3f55.jpg

Telegram: Contact @rybar

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2024/03/30/20240330181231-5701361b.jpg

Zaporozhye.

In the Vremyevskiy bulge area Russia has captured another treeline. There have been several such advances but even recapturing Staromayorskoe appears to be a distant prospect.

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

In the Rabotino pocket Russia has gained more ground west of Verbovoe, and south of Rabotino.

Telegram: Contact @Suriyak_maps

t.me

Russian forces pose with a knocked out PT-91 in the Rabotino pocket.

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Belgorod border region.

A Ukrainian BMP-1, Kozak armored car, T-80BV, T-72AMT, and T-64BV knocked out in Popovka, Sumy region. Note I believe this isn't new combat but footage of the major fighting earlier trickling in.

Telegram: Contact @Rubric_lossesvsu

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Rubric_lossesvsu

t.me

Telegram: Contact @Rubric_lossesvsu

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

It seems major combat action here has wound down. No more large scale Ukrainian attacks are being reported. However Ukraine is continuing shelling of Belgorod despite Russia regularly reporting on destruction of Ukrainian MLRS involved in the strikes. Civilian casualties are reported. I'm consolidating for the sake of brevity, but to be clear, this is a series of strikes, not a single one. Shelling also isn't restricted to the city, local villages are also getting hit.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @rybar

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

At least one strike on Belgorod involved a UAV hitting the Russian MVD building, at least this was a targetted strike against a legitimate target.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

An ugly pattern is developing of Ukraine using FPV drones to attack civilian vehicles near the border. In the past we've seen construction and farm equipment, now a delivery van.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Belgorod governor Gladkov reports that Russian children from Belgorod region have begun arriving in other regions.

Telegram: Contact @vvgladkov

t.me

Russian cross-border strikes continue, reportedly targeting a vehicle staging area used by Ukrainian forces.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

There are reports of large number of missing civilians in the border regions of Ukraine after the recent attack into Belgorod region. Given the escalating Russian strikes, these might be civilian dead. Though given the shady nature of the organizations involved, we can't discount some sort of misbehavior.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Footage from inside Kazachya Lopan'. Serious damage can be seen, Ukrainian volunteer are bringing humanitarian aid.

Telegram: Contact @boris_rozhin

t.me

Polish volunteer formations confirm their participation in the recent attack on Belgorod region. This is continuing confirmation that for all the propaganda b.s. the so-called Russian Legion doesn't have the numbers to constitute a substantial military force in their own right, and is mainly a propaganda stunt. And a fairly costly and ineffective one, at least so far.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Strikes.

Russian strikes landing in Kiev. Some sources are claiming these strikes were aiming at Ukrainian GUR targest, since they are affiliated with the recent cross-border attack on Belgorod region. Use of hypersonics is reported.

Telegram: Contact @ChDambiev

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

During the recent wave of strikes Russian missiles flew in a strange pattern around Kiev. The reason is unclear, perhaps they were trying to get Ukrainian air defenses to reveal themselves. They ultimately struck targets near L'vov region, Stryi. Reprotedly a military airfield, some storage facilities, and objects of energy infrastructure were hit.

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Telegram: Contact @RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Ракеты обходят Киев и летят дальше, постоянно меняя свое направление ▪️Ожидается, что под удар попадут цели на западе Украины. ▪️Тем временем все бомбардировщики Ту-95мс возвращаются на аэродромы базирования. ▪️Сохраняется и угроза "Шахедов": Франковщина, Львовщина, Тернопольщина, сообщают...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️В Стрые ночью стало светло, как днём ▪️Очевидцы насчитали 21 взрыв, а после мощного прилёта сильнейший пожар, местные публикуют кадры. ▪️Также львовяне шутят над поднятием в воздух польских истребителей F-16. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Львовскую область атаковали около 20 ракет и 7 шахедов: поражены объекты энергетики ▪️«Цель – объекты критической инфраструктуры. Известно об обстрелах во Львовской области. О последствиях сообщат областные власти», - заявил мэр Львова Садовой. ▪️Местные ресурсы пишут об ударах по...

t.me

Dambiev

Противник заявляет о нанесении ударов 29 крылатыми ракетами Х-101/Х-555 из 14 самолетов стратегической авиации Ту-95МС ВКС и 28 ударными БПЛА "Герань-2". Основной удар в сегодняшней атаке ВКС пришёлся на объекты в районе города Стрый Львовской области. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Dambiev

Жители Львова осуществляют объективный контроль утренниих прилетов русских крылатых ракет по объектам критической инфраструктуры.

t.me

Dambiev

Еще одно видео ракетных ударов ВС РФ по окрестностям города Стрый в Львовской области. Прилёты были по складам и ангарам с ГСМ, по военному аэродрому, который расположен за городом, а также по объектам энергетической инфраструктуры.

t.me

In recent strikes Russia hit the Kurakhovo, Ladyzhenskaya, Zmievskaya thermal plants, the TETs-5 in Kharkov, and the DneproGES hydroelectric plant. Explosions have also been reported at the Kanevskaya, Srednedneprovskaya, and Kremenchugskaya hydroelectric dams. This actually represents potentially more serious damage then all the strikes from last winter that were aimed mainly at distribution rather then production. Some of the repairs are being described as the kind that would take years to complete.

Colonelcassad

На днях были удары ВС России по ДнепроГЭС. Месть доброй воли нашел еще подтверждения успешного поражения целей в этот период: На изображениях - кадры результатов ударов по Кураховской, Ладыженской, Змиевской ТЭС, Днепровской ГЭС мощностью 1527 МВт, 1800 МВт, 2200 Мвт, 1578,6 МВт, 7000 МВт...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Враг показал разрушения на ТЭЦ-5 в Харькове По словам местных властей, на ее восстановление уйдут годы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️На восстановление ДнепроГЭС после удара России потребуются "не месяцы, а годы", – гендиректор "Укргидроэнерго" ▪️"Больше шести ракет прилетело именно в ГЭС-2. Также был поврежден мостовой переход, подкрановые балки, где находятся затворы", – заявил Игорь Сирота. ▪️Точные объемы разрушений...

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Харьков во тьме, после ударов нарушена работа крупнейшей ТЭЦ Местные ресурсы публикуют фотографии почти полного блэкаута в городе, и сообщают, что на восстановление ТЭЦ-5 потребуются годы. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Украинская сторона заявляет о взрывах «в районах Каневской и Кременчугской ГЭС»

Утром по объектам на подконтрольных киевским режимом территориям нанесена очередная серия комбинированных ударов, включая удары с применением гиперзвуковых ракет «Кинжал». Как уже сообщало «Военное обозрение» в ночное время суток были поражены объекты противника от Харьковщины и Днепропетровской

topwar.ru

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Змиевская ТЭС в Харьковской области полностью разрушена ударом России, - «Центрэнерго» ▪️На одной из крупнейших ТЭС ракетным ударом 22 марта были «уничтожены все блоки, повреждено вспомогательное оборудование. Степень разрушения разная, от полного – до значительного. Сейчас на предприятии...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сообщают, что прилеты были в районе Среднеднепровской ГЭС, после чего в районе станции начались перебои с электроэнергией.

t.me

Russia hit a Ukrainian supply regiment in Berezhany, Ternopol' region.

Dambiev

Уличная камера видеонаблюдения зафиксировала момент ракетного удара ВС РФ по расположению 777-го отдельного полка материального обеспечения украинских формирований (г. Бережаны, в/ч А1461) в Тернопольской области. Вследствие поражения на объекте наблюдался пожар без признаков вторичной...

t.me

Russia hit Nikolaev.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Украинские каналы публикуют фотографии с места прилета в Николаеве t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russia hit Odessa again. Targets unclear. The last notable target was a sanatorium where Ukrainian MVD personnel were staying.

Colonelcassad

В Одессе снова прилеты. На месте ударов наблюдается пожар и большое грибовидное облако.

t.me

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Рои дронов атакуют Украину: В Одессе после удара во многих районах исчезли свет и вода ▪️С 00:20 воздушная тревога в Одессе и Николаеве, "Герани" атакуют объекты врага. после прилётов в Одессе поражен объект энергоинфраструктуры. ▪️"Сейчас все цели на Николаев повернули. Первые по речке на...

t.me

Kolchuga-M EW system in Odessa region getting hit by a Russian loitering munition.

Рубрика от Ледка

Кольчуга-М - поражена В пос. Коблево Одесской области. Геопривязка СК: (46.625790, 31.145040) Расчет БпЛA Х-51 ударил по замаскированной станции радиотехнической разведки Источник #Ланцет

t.me

The 6th Ukrainian P-18 getting taken out in the past 2 months.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukraine hit an oil refinery in Samara and Kuybyshev. Fires are reported.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️Враг нанёс удар по НПЗ в Самаре Атакован нефтеперерабатывающий завод в Куйбышевском районе. СМИ публикуют кадры пожара. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Два майора

Самарская область: На Куйбышевском НПЗ в Самаре произошёл пожар. Сообщается, что завод мог быть атакован беспилотником. Два майора

t.me

Colonelcassad

Ночью противник атаковал дронами 2 НПЗ в Самарской области (Куйбышевский и Новокуйбышевский). На Куйбышевском НПЗ было возгорание. Жертв и пострадавших нет. PS. Горение на Куйбышевском НПЗ потушили к 8 утра.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Damage to what appears to be a residential building in Sevastopol' after a recent Ukrainian strike. 1 civilian KIA is reported. Note this doesn't appear to be the same building as the comms building reported hit by other sources. The damage also appears relatively minor. Perhaps fragments from a downed inbound?

Colonelcassad

Последствия вчерашней атаки Севастополя и поврежденный дом на улице Ялтинской, где погиб 1 гражданский.

t.me

Evidence of Russian updates to the Iskander missiles continue, with more satellite comms components showing up. We also have a new Kh-102 variant with reduced range and an increased warhead. This makes sense since the usual range is excessive for a theater this small.

Colonelcassad

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Получатели ракет Х-101 сообщают об очередной модификации изделия. Она коснулась боевой части, которая была увеличена почти в два раза и теперь составляет не 450 кг, а 800 кг. Ради этого пришлось пожертвовать частью топливного бака. Тем не менее, учитывая размер Украины и дальность применения...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Downed of fallen Russian Kh-59MK2 in Sumy region. These missiles are becoming more common.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

Interesting bits.

We recently saw Ukrainian forces riding an M1117 Guardian and now we have the first loss of one.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A rare Ukrainain BMP-1TS destroyed somewhere on the front lines.

Colonelcassad

Давно не появлявшаяся на экранах и крайне редкая украинская версия советской боевой машины пехоты БМП-1ТС с боевым модулем "Копье". Точное количество оставшихся машин после потери этой неизвестно, но можно предположить, что в строю осталась хорошо, если половина из них (всего было сделано около...

t.me

A Russian soldier films a destroyed BMP-3M, BMP-2, knocked out MBT (allegedly T-72B3 but I can't make it out), and BREM-L in the distance. Based on his comments, it's possible that we're seeing the results of a successful attack. I.e. the infantry was able to dismount and capture positions despite losing vehicles. BMP-3Ms are being destroyed more frequently lately, suggesting their use is becoming more and more common. This lines up with regular reports of continued deliveries. Despite being the most modern IFV Russia produces, even with up-armor kits it's protection level is inadequate by modern standards. It is, however, a massive improvement over BMP-1/2s and MT-LBs.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Осмотр ВС РФ уничтоженной БМП-3 с дополнительной защитой, БМП-2. Также в кадре на отдалении поврежденный Т-72Б3 и БРЭМ-Л.

t.me

After recent reports that showed automatic targeting on Russian loitering munitions, and then Ukrainian FPV drones, we now have it on Russian FPV drones.

Автоприцеливание теперь и на наших FPV дронах (hex_nsk)

Интересующиеся беспилотной тематикой уже хорошо знакомы с разработками по автоприцеливанию и самонаведению воздушных дронов на основе машинного зрения от компании ZALA (см., например вот этот пост), однако, по использованию подобных технологий другими производителям и тем более по...

aftershock.news

Russian BTR-80 carrying the uparmor kit. Up until now we've only seen it on BTR-82ATs. Note the post labels it as a BTR-82A, but it clearly isn't one based on the turret.

Резиний лишним не будет

БТР-82А, помимо штатного комплекта экранов, получил самодельные резиновые нашлепки на корму.

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian T-80BV pulling out a stuck BMP-3M. The realities of the theater are such that even tracked vehicles often get stuck.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Т-80БВ вытягивает БМП-3(ВС РФ) с дополнительной защитой. #ходовая_часть

t.me

Russian forces installing a BTR-82A turret on a captured BWP-1.

Dambiev

Установка боевого модуля с 30-мм пушкой 2А72 от БТР-82А. на трофейную украинскую боевую машину пехоты BWP-1 польского производства.

t.me

A couple of Russian T-72B3s with various up-armor setups.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Такая вот защита от ВС РФ для ЗОП. Каждый делает в силу своих возможностей и понимания - получается по-разному. Единственные кто на это забил в РФ - это десятки НИИ и КБ с мировым именем, которые пилят сумасбродные патенты с уровнем новизны уровня верхнего палеолита.

t.me

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

↑ покрышки там видимо от FPV

t.me

A fairly clear looking S-60/MT-LB hybrid. What I always wonder about is why Russia hasn't developed and deployed a standard up-armor kit for the MT-LB. They have them for the BMP-1/2 and BMP-3. Even pre-war several units were using MT-LBs as APCs (200th MRBde, and 40th MarBde) and IFVs (the mountain bde out of Dagestan had them with 30mm autocannons). Now they're even more widespread. They're also essentially artillery tractors. They can carry a lot of weight. A simple up-armor kit seems so logical.

Colonelcassad

Боевая маталыга мчится косить укроп @IronHelmets

t.me

A very rare Russian Ladoga heavy APC was spotted in Ukraine. This is an APC built on the T-80U chassis meant for VIPs to ride around in during a nuclear war. The footage shows it getting hit by an FPV drone from behind but of course this doesn't guarantee destruction. From what I've read, less then 10 of these vehicles were ever built.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

К списку редких экземпляров задействованных войне ВС РФ добавилось высокозащищённое транспортное средство «Ладога» разработки «Спецмаш». Похоже сгребают с баз хранения все, что может ездить.

t.me

Russian BMP-1 with an improvised extra-armor kit, but neatly made.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Такая вот дополнительная защита из котельного железа на БМП-шке. Эффект скорее психологический.

t.me

Russian sources confirm use of the 3M44 old AShMs in the current war. Unconfirmed reports were circulating earlier. I suspect it's just an intent to use up available stores. They're likely being launched out of the old underground AShM base in Crimea.

Ракеты 3М44 «Прогресс» в Спецоперации

Старт ракеты 3М44 с пусковой установки комплекса "Утес" / "Объект 100" Для принудительной силовой демилитаризации киевского режима российские вооруженные силы используют широкую номенклатуру ракетных вооружений, как современных, так и достаточно старых. К примеру, в середине

topwar.ru

Russian separate Grad launchers, single, double, and triple, on what appears to be a standardized tripod. I have questions about accuracy. They are described as improvised, but they look fairly standardized to me.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian EW jamming a satelite trying to look at an airfield near Voronezh.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A rare Ukrainian Stormer SAM near the front.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Stormer HVM на фронте.

t.me

A Ukrainian MiG-29 carrying a pair of Hammer bombs.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Миг-29 с парой AASM 250 HAMMER. Зимнее.

t.me

Ukrainian forces preparing to do repairs on a damaged Bradley. BRAT ERA sections are on the ground near it.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

#Тикток_архив ремонт поврежденной #Bradley, рядом видны блоки ДЗ BRAT.

t.me

Ukrainian forces operating a captured Vityaz armored all-terrain transporter. It likely hails from the 200th MRBde which was most prominently operating the type pre-war.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

"Витязь" в ВСУ

t.me

Ukrainian forces using a captured T-62M for training their infantry.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Трофейный Т-62М (бывш. ВС РФ) используется для обучения в ходе обкатки.

t.me

The Czech Republic is handing over the last batch of Mi-24s to Ukraine. Total numbers are unclear but the current batch is almost certainly low single digits, with the total handed over likely no more then low double digits.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Finland is reportedly handing over some small boats to Ukraine.

Рыбарь

А финские власти быстро освоились в составе Североатлантического альянса. Румыны сообщают, что финны передали ВСУ быстроходные катера типа «Уиско». Эти плавсредства выводят из состава финских войск, поэтому и было решено передать их украинским формированиям. Они могут развивать скорость до 65...

t.me

In Denmark a trailer carrying a Leo-1 flipped over. Reportedly the vehicle was involved in training Ukrainian personnel.

Танки. История и современность. Btvt.info

Leopard 1A5DK ꓘᗡ5∀⇂pɹɐdoǝ⅂ упал в Дани. Это произошло в пятницу утром во время перевозки из казарм Хольстебро в Ольборг (22.03.24). Чтобы освободить место для обгоняющего грузовика колесная пара попала на очень мягкую обочину, и прицеп все дальше и дальше съезжал в кювет, говорит водитель...

t.me

In Poland General Adam Marchak has died, with unofficial sources tying his death to a recent Russian strike on a Ukrainian command post near Chasov Yar. Officially he died from natural causes while off duty.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️О неожиданной смерти бригадного генерала Адама Марчака сообщает командование войска польского ▪️Некоторые западные и российские ресурсы связывают смерть генерала с появившейся в Сети информацией об ударе по заглублённому командному пункту в Часов Яре. ▪️«С прискорбием сообщаем, что во...

t.me

Russian General Mordvichev has been awarded hero of Russia, presumably for Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Генерал-полковник Андрей Мордвичев командовавший штурмом Авдеевки награжден медалью Героя России.

t.me

 

[Fredled]

Russian T-90M with a new EW system, knocked out and finished off by a quadcopter grenade drope. Note the extra layer of K-1 on the roof.

The two open hatches suggest that the tank was empty. Preventive action to make sure that their owner doesn't use it again.

Ukrainian T-72M1 knocked out and finished off near Avdeevka.

If I understand the caption, the BCU (Ukrainians) finished their own tank with a copter?
To prevent the Russians to use it?

An ugly pattern is developing of Ukraine using FPV drones to attack civilian vehicles near the border. In the past we've seen construction and farm equipment, now a delivery van.

It looks like they strike at anything moving. This is teir "War is coming to Russia" program. Scare the people away from the region, disrupt the local economy, maybe hoping to hit civilian vehicles used by the local government or the military in the meantime.

Looking at the smoke, the van was carrying either tires or fuel.

There are reports of large number of missing civilians in the border regions of Ukraine after the recent attack into Belgorod region. Given the escalating Russian strikes, these might be civilian dead. Though given the shady nature of the organizations involved, we can't discount some sort of misbehavior.

Some witness have talked about execution of civilians who voiced support for the Russians or who refused to evacuate because they were waiting for Russians to liberate them, or answered the wrong answer to the question "Are you Russian or Ukrainian" and in one case without even asking any question. These crimes were commited by foreign mercenaries.
This is already old, but there is no reason whay these incidents are not repeated or even worsening.

Those dying collaterally under Russian response strikes are likely to be few and there should be also reports of wounded civilians as well.

Now, it's more probable that these missing civilians have simply fled to other areas and the authorities are not yet aware of this.

Polish volunteer formations confirm their participation in the recent attack on Belgorod region. This is continuing confirmation that for all the propaganda b.s. the so-called Russian Legion doesn't have the numbers to constitute a substantial military force in their own right, and is mainly a propaganda stunt. And a fairly costly and ineffective one, at least so far.

I also believe that there are very few Russians from Russia inside these Russian Legions and other Siberian Batallion.
There might be a few ones but clearly not in the thousands nor even in the hundreds. Russians are fairly attached to their nation and even when they disagree with Putin's war, few would want to kill fellow Russians soldiers, unless they have a very good personal reason to do it.

The Wagner rebelion didn't meet any support within the regular army, and very little (a few applaus in Taganrog caught on camera) among the population. The Russian Freedom Legion is unlikely to have more popular success.
People don't believe that somebody else won't be as bad as the current regime. That they disagree with Putin doesn't mean that they will trust unkown, rogue warriors. Let alone those who still support Putin.

In recent strikes Russia hit the Kurakhovo, Ladyzhenskaya, Zmievskaya thermal plants, the TETs-5 in Kharkov, ....
This actually represents potentially more serious damage then all the strikes from last winter that were aimed mainly at distribution rather then production. Some of the repairs are being described as the kind that would take years to complete.

Reading between the lines, and sometimes directly, reports from Ukrinform seems to confirm that damages were serious.

 

[Jaykaro]

There are reports of large number of missing civilians in the border regions of Ukraine after the recent attack into Belgorod region. Given the escalating Russian strikes, these might be civilian dead. Though given the shady nature of the organizations involved, we can't discount some sort of misbehavior.

Well, of course, it's precisely because of the RDK that civilians disappear, not because Sumy Oblast is leveled by bombs, often without any confirmed military targets. Before the attacks by the RDK, civilians didn't die from the SRG attacks, of course. It's amusing how the source manipulates facts, but then again, why be surprised? This telegram channel has used fakes many times before.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774395014132449412

30.03.24 Avdiivka area, village Tonenke. Remember this date and area.
12 tanks and 8 BMPs were taken out.

It's also interesting that an OSINT researcher has noted a new trend among Russian losses: tanks T-72 manufactured or upgraded after 2013 are becoming less common, while those from the 1984-2012 period are increasingly prevalent. This is corroborated by leaked information from Russian chats: enemy tank crews complain about a shortage of certain components, notably ERA. This aligns with regular reports indicating that the Russian Armed Forces are increasingly employing "naked" tanks, without ERA, immediately after they are taken out of storage

 

[Feanor]

Well, of course, it's precisely because of the RDK that civilians disappear, not because Sumy Oblast is leveled by bombs, often without any confirmed military targets. Before the attacks by the RDK, civilians didn't die from the SRG attacks, of course. It's amusing how the source manipulates facts, but then again, why be surprised? This telegram channel has used fakes many times before.

You clearly see what you want to see. My very first explanation was Russian airstrikes. Given prior bad behavior from both sides especially when it comes to organizations somewhat separate from the regular military (Wagner, Georgian Legion) we can't ignore the other possibility.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1774395014132449412

30.03.24 Avdiivka area, village Tonenke. Remember this date and area.
12 tanks and 8 BMPs were taken out.

He quotes it as the largest attack. Iirc weren't there more used in the initial push to the rail line and refuse mound near Avdeevka? This one is clearly a tank btln and a mech coy. That one was from what I could observe a mech btln and a tank coy. Either way, curious about the large scale use of armor and mainly in this area. Let's see if it develops into a trend. As for it being madness... Russia is continuing to gain ground here.

It's also interesting that an OSINT researcher has noted a new trend among Russian losses: tanks T-72 manufactured or upgraded after 2013 are becoming less common, while those from the 1984-2012 period are increasingly prevalent. This is corroborated by leaked information from Russian chats: enemy tank crews complain about a shortage of certain components, notably ERA. This aligns with regular reports indicating that the Russian Armed Forces are increasingly employing "naked" tanks, without ERA, immediately after they are taken out of storage

Do you have a link to this? It would be interesting to see the data.

The two open hatches suggest that the tank was empty. Preventive action to make sure that their owner doesn't use it again.

Given the location and context, I suspect it's immobilized somehow. Crews bailing out routinely leave hatches open to save time.

If I understand the caption, the BCU (Ukrainians) finished their own tank with a copter?
To prevent the Russians to use it?

Yes. This is correct, and in general good practice.

It looks like they strike at anything moving. This is teir "War is coming to Russia" program. Scare the people away from the region, disrupt the local economy, maybe hoping to hit civilian vehicles used by the local government or the military in the meantime.

If this is the pattern they intend to follow, they are going to wander more and more into warcrime territory.

Looking at the smoke, the van was carrying either tires or fuel.

Not sure I can tell the load from the smoke. How do you figure?

Some witness have talked about execution of civilians who voiced support for the Russians or who refused to evacuate because they were waiting for Russians to liberate them, or answered the wrong answer to the question "Are you Russian or Ukrainian" and in one case without even asking any question. These crimes were commited by foreign mercenaries.
This is already old, but there is no reason whay these incidents are not repeated or even worsening.

Those dying collaterally under Russian response strikes are likely to be few and there should be also reports of wounded civilians as well.

Now, it's more probable that these missing civilians have simply fled to other areas and the authorities are not yet aware of this.

Of course. I didn't think of this, but your explanation is the likeliest one. In the chaos of an evacuation the spike in missing persons would be first and foremost people separate and trying to find each other.

 

[Fredled]

Not sure I can tell the load from the smoke. How do you figure?

had the van been empty or ladden with non flamable material or not very flamable material it wouldn't smoke like that.
The only time I saw smoke like that is when a neighbour decided to burn tires. The whole vilage was angry.
A large load of plastic material could also smoke bad but not as much as tires.
Diesel could also generate this black smoke. But we would see burning spills on the road.

 

[Feanor]

had the van been empty or ladden with non flamable material or not very flamable material it wouldn't smoke like that.
The only time I saw smoke like that is when a neighbour decided to burn tires. The whole vilage was angry.
A large load of plastic material could also smoke bad but not as much as tires.
Diesel could also generate this black smoke. But we would see burning spills on the road.

So not just tires but anything flammable would do? What about synthetic fabric, like a tarp? Or something other then tires but made of rubber, like rain boots? To be clear, I don't think this is a truck full of rain boots, I'm just curious about what the theoretical range of possibilities is.