The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

German Media is reporting about "unusual" concentraions and movements of russian military close to the ukrainien border.

There is some of the usual fearmongering about an russian Invasion by the Media but actual insights and informations are hard to find as it is not the biggest topic in the News (Covid and the election outcome Take the limelight spots).

Could you provide some background in the current deployment @Feanor ? Thank you in advance.

I don't see the usual evidence of it, namely buckets of videos of Russian troops moving around near the border. In previous build-ups it was easily traceable through OSINT. It could be that the current buildup is a fiction. It also could be, though I think less likely, that Russia has managed to achieve a significant concentration without the usual public attention. Given that North Stream 2 certification is on the table, and that the Russian military isn't great at opsec, I'm leaning towards this being mostly fictional.

 

[Vivendi]

German Media is reporting about "unusual" concentraions and movements of russian military close to the ukrainien border.

There is some of the usual fearmongering about an russian Invasion by the Media but actual insights and informations are hard to find as it is not the biggest topic in the News (Covid and the election outcome Take the limelight spots).

Could you provide some background in the current deployment @Feanor ? Thank you in advance.

Not only German media is reporting this. Several other sources, including NATO, report the same: Russia-Ukraine border: Nato warning over military build-up - BBC News

Jens Stoltenberg said a "large and unusual" build-up of Russian forces had been spotted on the border in recent weeks.

European Council on Foreign Relation: Russia’s military movements: What they could mean for Ukraine, Europe, and NATO – European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu)

Importantly, another set of military build-ups accelerated at the beginning of November. These are clearly targeting Ukraine specifically. The number of military assets in Crimea has increased; parts of the 1st Guards Tank Army have been deployed to Maslovka close to the border with the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in the country’s north-east; and a further concentration of military vehicles appears to have assembled around Rostov (just east of Ukraine). This last move is presumably to enable Russia to infiltrate Ukraine’s Donbas region, an intention strongly suggested by the high numbers of military transports arriving at the airport in Rostov-on-Don.

Alongside these build-ups, Russia has mobilised its paramilitary security forces, the National Guards Units, and also sent them to Rostov. Following an invasion of Ukraine, it would use these to control conquered territory, suppress dissent, and install puppet administrations. Their mobilisation is a sign that the Kremlin is at least considering the option of further incursions into Ukraine. Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia seems to be making much less effort to ensure the current assembly is visible. This may hint towards a significantly more serious intention than simply a wish to appear threatening.

 

[Vivendi]

To my (non-expert) eyes, this looks like a pretty good analysis:

bne IntelliNews - LONG READ: Russia looks poised to invade Ukraine, but what would an invasion actually look like?

What do people think? Are we moving closer to "Ossetia 2" scenario?
Perhaps the most likely is that by amassing significant number of troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia has a number of options they are considering, depending on how things develop in the near future. Hopefully NATO and the EU will play their cards well.

Winter is coming.

 

[Vivendi]

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky claimed in a press conference just now that Ukranian intelligence services have uncovered plans for a coup d'etat, scheduled for December 1-2. Russia claim they are not involved.

A Russia-backed coup against Ukraine planned for December - Zelensky - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

 

[Feanor]

To my (non-expert) eyes, this looks like a pretty good analysis:

bne IntelliNews - LONG READ: Russia looks poised to invade Ukraine, but what would an invasion actually look like?

What do people think? Are we moving closer to "Ossetia 2" scenario?
Perhaps the most likely is that by amassing significant number of troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia has a number of options they are considering, depending on how things develop in the near future. Hopefully NATO and the EU will play their cards well.

Winter is coming.

I suspect not. A Ukrainian version of the 5-day war would require that Ukraine launch a major offensive against the rebels, and it seems unlikely. It certainly wouldn't be smart of them to do so. I suspect current posturing by Ukraine and statements about the threat of Russian invasion are echoes of internal Ukrainian politics, power struggles between various oligarchical clans. Even if we believe Ukraine's claims (Динамика нарастания группировки россйиских войск на границах Украины) they don't show preparations for an invasion, rather they show on and off increases and decreases in Russian troops concentrations near Ukraine, and the current numbers aren't even the highest in 2021. Moreover the other article you linked (assuming they're correct) mentions that Russian troop concentrations aren't even near Ukraine necessarily. They are some distance away. To me this doesn't add up to an invasion plan. Rather I suspect Russia anticipates that Ukraine is going to have a difficult winter both politically and infrastructurally and Zelensky might be tempted to do what Poroshenko did and try to distract the public by some sort of military provocation against the rebels. Thus they're keeping extra troops on stand-by, not on the Ukrainian border, but some distance away, not deployed for an invasion, but able to move into position if needed.

 

[Vivendi]

Seems there has been some significant developments the last week or so.

(CNN)Russian President Vladimir Putin has built military capacity on the border of Ukraine that is "much larger and on a much more lethal scale" than preceded Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea, Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland said Tuesday, warning of severe risks to Moscow if it invades Ukraine.
Moscow has positioned approximately 100 tactical groups and nearly all its ready ground forces based west of the Urals at different spots along its border with Ukraine, Nuland told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Much of this comes right out of Putin's 2014 playbook," Nuland said, "but this time, it is much larger and on a much more lethal scale."
Speaking with CNN's Jake Tapper on "The Lead" after her Senate appearance, Nuland also said Russia now has forces on three sides of Ukraine, "which is not a scenario we've seen before."


Nuland, in that appearance later Tuesday, said Russia might use Belarus to invade Ukraine and perhaps "mask" its forces to look like Belarusian troops, a point she had emphasized in the Senate hearing as well.

Russian military capacity on Ukraine's border is on a 'more lethal scale' than 2014 Crimea invasion, US official says - CNNPolitics

Another piece of information that may be significant: Russia has strengthened supply lines for fuel and other support, including medical units:

Russia Bolsters Supply Lines, Deploys Medical Units Near Ukraine As Invasion Fears Grow: Report (Updated) (thedrive.com)

Finally; it's interesting to note that European powers seem to be aligned with the US:

PARIS, Dec 7 (Reuters) - France and its western allies Italy, Germany, Britain and the United States will remain "vigilant" regarding Russia's potential "aggressive initiatives" towards Ukraine, the Elysee presidential office said on Tuesday.

"The five leaders reaffirmed their determination to work together to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty and ensure its stability and security", the Elysee said after a call President Emmanuel Macron held with his counterparts of the so-called "QINT" group.

"In this respect, they remain vigilant on aggressive initiatives that could be taken by Russia towards Ukraine."

France, U.S., Britain, Germany and Italy are 'vigilant' ... (trust.org)

In general I tend to be very skeptical when the US is making claims not supported by European countries, one example were the claims regarding "weapons of mass destructions" prior to the last Iraq war, which were not supported by Germany and France. When Germany, France and Italy are in alignment with the US, in my opinion the case is often a bit more "solid" (but still no guarantee that their claims are in alignment with reality of course).

Feanor, what do Russian media say about the latest development? What is your take on this?

 

[Feanor]

Seems there has been some significant developments the last week or so.



Russian military capacity on Ukraine's border is on a 'more lethal scale' than 2014 Crimea invasion, US official says - CNNPolitics

Another piece of information that may be significant: Russia has strengthened supply lines for fuel and other support, including medical units:

Russia Bolsters Supply Lines, Deploys Medical Units Near Ukraine As Invasion Fears Grow: Report (Updated) (thedrive.com)

Finally; it's interesting to note that European powers seem to be aligned with the US:


France, U.S., Britain, Germany and Italy are 'vigilant' ... (trust.org)

In general I tend to be very skeptical when the US is making claims not supported by European countries, one example were the claims regarding "weapons of mass destructions" prior to the last Iraq war, which were not supported by Germany and France. When Germany, France and Italy are in alignment with the US, in my opinion the case is often a bit more "solid" (but still no guarantee that their claims are in alignment with reality of course).

Feanor, what do Russian media say about the latest development? What is your take on this?

I'm still not seeing the usual indicators. Normally when Russia ramps up military presence near Ukraine, Russian social media and military-related forums and blogs, get flooded with photos and videos of troop columns on roads, trains carrying armored vehicles, etc. Right now it's crickets. At the end of the day, Russia currently has no reason to invade. North Stream 2 certification is on the table, they're making record profits off the current gas prices, and Ukraine internally isn't really in any sort of deep political crisis that could be used to justify intervention. What I do see is diplomatic statements warning Russia not to invade Ukraine from the US, and lots of western media speculating about Russian invasion. I can't help but wonder if this is media cover for a move by Ukraine against the rebels.

 

[Ananda]

can't help but wonder if this is media cover for a move by Ukraine against the rebels.

I also wonder, how the west going to sell their constituance if Ukraine make a move first toward the rebels, and Russia make counter move on that.

From some forums or online media, there's seems quite large talk in Euro public especialy in German or French that will not want to get involve in Ukraine. Especialy if Ukraine that making move first.

 

[John Fedup]

I also wonder, how the west going to sell their constituance if Ukraine make a move first toward the rebels, and Russia make counter move on that.

From some forums or online media, there's seems quite large talk in Euro public especialy in German or French that will not want to get involve in Ukraine. Especialy if Ukraine that making move first.

It could be a lose-lose scenario for all involved even if no direct Russian-NATO intervention happens. Russia will end up with an expensive occupation along with western back insurgences not to mention even worse sanctions. Europe will be cut off from Russian gas and tensions in Eastern Europe will worsen. Probably the worst result would be Xi feeling the Ukraine situation would favour a earlier Taiwan invasion. Certainly Xi will be carefully monitoring the US response. He will be sniffing for any lack of resolve by the US.

 

[Vivendi]

I'm still not seeing the usual indicators. Normally when Russia ramps up military presence near Ukraine, Russian social media and military-related forums and blogs, get flooded with photos and videos of troop columns on roads, trains carrying armored vehicles, etc. Right now it's crickets. At the end of the day, Russia currently has no reason to invade. North Stream 2 certification is on the table, they're making record profits off the current gas prices, and Ukraine internally isn't really in any sort of deep political crisis that could be used to justify intervention. What I do see is diplomatic statements warning Russia not to invade Ukraine from the US, and lots of western media speculating about Russian invasion. I can't help but wonder if this is media cover for a move by Ukraine against the rebels.

What the US and others are hinting at, is that Russia is working at presenting Ukraine as the aggressor, and might use this as an excuse for an intervention. If this is the case, then one should perhaps expect that the military buildup by Russia close to Ukraine is done "quietly" at the current stage. Clearly if they had flooded forums and blogs with photos and videos of troop columns moving towards Ukraine before Ukraine has behaved "provocatively", it might be more difficult for Russia to claim with any credibility that Ukraine is the aggressive one.

It seems most analysts agree that invasion of all of Ukraine is very unlikely. One scenario could be to focus on the eastern rebel-controlled regions, perhaps integrating them into Russia. A large number of Russian passports have been distributed in the rebel controlled areas, and Putin has made it clear repeatedly that Russia can and will "protect" Russians (i.e. people having Russian passports).

Another scenario could be that Putin is just using a military buildup to increase pressure on Ukraine, the US and Europe, and aim for a better position before negotiating a deal.

Analysis by Gustav Gressel, well worth a read:

Why Russia could invade Ukraine again – European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu)

I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine is planning an offensive against the rebels. Since the rebels are receiving heavy support from Russia already, and since Ukraine must assume that this support will increase rapidly and dramatically if Ukraine attacked, it would be counter-productive for Ukraine to move against the rebels. They cannot gain anything, instead they will lose the rebel-controlled regions for the foreseeable future, and with no prospects of negotiations, just like Georgia did in 2008.

Russia would pay a high price if they decide to do a land grab once again. Hopefully the US + EU will be able to convince Putin that the price will be too high and hopefully he will decide against it.

However, there are several wild cards here, the most important one is probably China.

 

[Feanor]

I also wonder, how the west going to sell their constituance if Ukraine make a move first toward the rebels, and Russia make counter move on that.

Presumably by presenting a medium sized bucket of possible Russian invasion scenarios in advance, getting the public used to the idea of Russia as the aggressor, and then simply presenting the hostilities as Russia entering Ukrainian territory (strictly true) and ignoring or downplaying the entire part about a Ukrainian offensive against the rebels. I still recall the 5 day war when the BBC published footage of Ts'hinvali being shelled by the Georgians as footage of Gori being shelled by Russia.

It's hard to say where all of this is really going. The current situation a complete dead end. The Minsk 2.0 accords are technically the governing document but it's obvious that they're not going to be implemented, and even a brief overview of their contents makes it obvious why. They not only require Ukraine to amend it's constitution to allow the Lugansk and Donestk regions wide autonomy (much wider then what Crimea had pre-war) they also allow the two regions to maintain de-facto stand-alone militaries (paramilitary if you will) under the name of People's Militia (they can't keep tanks or artillery, but I suspect those will be kept in storage bases on the Russian side of the border).

On the other hand nobody except Ukraine (not even the US) has been willing to openly discuss changing the Minsk Accords. And Ukraine's proposed changes simply amount to the rebels capitulating, Russia pulling all support, and them getting to reconquer/reclaim the territory in question. Not exactly a compromise, and not in any way supported by the military or political reality of the situation. If you recall the Minsk 2.0 was signed after the Debal'tsevo disaster, and Minsk 1.0 was signed after two back to back crushing defeats (the Izvarino Pocket and Ilovaysk).

So there's basically no way to move forward. In my opinion there are parties who prefer it that way. Meanwhile the breakaway regions are integrating more and more closely with Russia politically and economically, and a generation is growing up for whom being separated from Ukraine, going to school in Russian, and regarding the Ukrainian state (if not the people) as enemies is just normal. At this point someone who was 10 years old when the Euromaidan broke out is 18. The longer this goes on, the deeper the rift gets. So it's certainly tempting for the Ukrainian government, leaning on newly acquired foreign weapons like the Javelin, and the Bayraktar TB2, to try and resolve the situation by arms. This would require someone keeping Russia out of the fight, by say threatening the North Stream 2 pipeline certification, threatening disconnection from SWIFT global financial messaging, and preparing the public for the image of the Russian aggressor. But remember, this is all conjecture. The reality remains murky.

 

[Feanor]

What the US and others are hinting at, is that Russia is working at presenting Ukraine as the aggressor, and might use this as an excuse for an intervention. If this is the case, then one should perhaps expect that the military buildup by Russia close to Ukraine is done "quietly" at the current stage. Clearly if they had flooded forums and blogs with photos and videos of troop columns moving towards Ukraine before Ukraine has behaved "provocatively", it might be more difficult for Russia to claim with any credibility that Ukraine is the aggressive one.

This would imply a major improvement in Russian military OPSEC. These photos and videos aren't normally produced by the government. They're a result of lots of troops moving through relatively populous country along a limited number of roads and railways. Of course a secret deployment of troops directly to Ukraine's border would support the possibility of Russian invasion. If you're trying to deter invasion, you do the opposite, make your preparations visible, and make plenty of statements indicating your readiness to respond like Russia did in spring. I'm still curious to see any hard data on actual Russian troop deployment to the Ukrainian border. The last info seemed to indicate that forces from West-2021 exercises are sitting at Yelnya, near the Belorussian border. Since then I've some satellite imagery of the same, but nothing indicating Russian troops near Lugansk or near Rostov-na-Donu.

It seems most analysts agree that invasion of all of Ukraine is very unlikely. One scenario could be to focus on the eastern rebel-controlled regions, perhaps integrating them into Russia. A large number of Russian passports have been distributed in the rebel controlled areas, and Putin has made it clear repeatedly that Russia can and will "protect" Russians (i.e. people having Russian passports).

I wouldn't be surprised if an all out Ukrainian offensive against the rebels would be met with a Georgian War-style campaign of "enforcing peace" followed by recognition of the LNR-DNR in some capacity. But this doesn't require invading Ukraine. Offensives from inside rebel territories would require moving men and material in that direction. Again, I'm not seeing it.

Another scenario could be that Putin is just using a military buildup to increase pressure on Ukraine, the US and Europe, and aim for a better position before negotiating a deal.

This would make sense if there was some deal being negotiated. But what is Putin asking for? Certification of North Stream 2? That's hardly served by tensions with Ukraine. Recognition of Crimean annexation? It doesn't seem like a realistic goal under current conditions, and even if it was the goal, increasing tensions in the Donbass wouldn't help.

Analysis by Gustav Gressel, well worth a read:

Why Russia could invade Ukraine again – European Council on Foreign Relations (ecfr.eu)

The article doesn't really answer it's own question (unless you count the whole "weaken Ukraine" angle, but an invasion would be a high price to pay for such a general and nebulous goal, arguably a peaceful end for Ukrainian gas transit would do more damage in the long run then a short high-intensity military campaign). It discusses how Russia could invade, and what forms it could take, but it doesn't answer the why from a standpoint of Russian motivation.

I find it very hard to believe that Ukraine is planning an offensive against the rebels. Since the rebels are receiving heavy support from Russia already, and since Ukraine must assume that this support will increase rapidly and dramatically if Ukraine attacked, it would be counter-productive for Ukraine to move against the rebels. They cannot gain anything, instead they will lose the rebel-controlled regions for the foreseeable future, and with no prospects of negotiations, just like Georgia did in 2008.

Agreed. Unless Russia is kept out of the equation somehow, there is no realistic way to win that war militarily (presently of course). Of course I wouldn't underestimate the ability of some of the more marginal nationalist groups to lose touch with reality. But thankfully they're not presently in political power.

While we're at this, here's the text of the Minsk Accords translated in full. Please consider Notes section at the bottom, it's often left out of the text, but it has some of the more complex portions of this agreement.

Minsk Agreement: Full text in English

The full text of the agreement signed in Minsk on Thursday, February 12. This text was translated into English by UNIAN from a text posted online by the Kremlin. It is not an official translation. Editing clarifications in the text appear in square brackets.

www.unian.info

 

[Vivendi]

Feanor,

Thanks for a consistent and comprehensive response, as always you raise many valid points.

It is indeed puzzling that the US (and it seems now also Germany, France and Italy) believe there is a troop buildup but no significant movements have been tracked through open sources. I recall that after the buildup of Russian troops this spring it was said that some equipment was left in place, and that this would allow Russia to rapidly increase again later on since some heavy equipment was already "in the area". However, could it also make it easier to hide troop movements, I assume it might be harder to track movement of people than movement of heavy equipment?

No matter what the truth is, it seems that things are happening: Biden had a 2-hour meeting with Putin to discuss Ukraine, and recently Biden also made it clear that the US has no intention of sending troops into Ukraine, and also working to arrange additional meetings with Russia: Russia Ukraine: Sending US troops not on table - Biden - BBC News

But when asked about possible military action, Mr Biden said the US's moral and legal obligations to its Nato allies in the region did not extend to Ukraine, who is not a member of the 30-member organisation.
"The idea that the US is going to unilaterally use force to confront Russia invading Ukraine is not on the cards right now," he said.
The US president said he hoped high-level meetings with Russia and at least four major Nato allies to discuss Russia's concerns would be announced by Friday.

I don't entirely agree that the Gressel article does not properly define the "why", but that's just my opinion.

Russia has a clear aim: to weaken Ukraine so much that it will be relatively easy to control the country’s politics. Moscow can achieve this by forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreement on its terms – which would establish a de facto Russian veto on Ukrainian domestic affairs – and by starting and exploiting anti-government revolts. Alternatively, Moscow could pressure Washington to ‘deliver’ Ukraine by signing security guarantees that favoured Russia. These guarantees would prohibit Ukraine from not only joining NATO but also engaging in any form of cooperation with the West that would strengthen its resilience. This would eventually force Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

 

[Feanor]

Feanor,

Thanks for a consistent and comprehensive response, as always you raise many valid points.

It is indeed puzzling that the US (and it seems now also Germany, France and Italy) believe there is a troop buildup but no significant movements have been tracked through open sources. I recall that after the buildup of Russian troops this spring it was said that some equipment was left in place, and that this would allow Russia to rapidly increase again later on since some heavy equipment was already "in the area". However, could it also make it easier to hide troop movements, I assume it might be harder to track movement of people than movement of heavy equipment?

It hypothetically could. Again it's possible that Russia concentrated forces in secret, somehow. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The claims of Russian troop concentrations are fairly vague. Does the US have knowledge of Russian troops massing across the border from Sumy, Kharkov, Lugansk, or near Rostov-na-Donu? That would help. Are they still just talking about Russian troops at Yelnya when they're talking about this troop concentration? If so, it doesn't support the narrative of a Russian invasion. Again look at where Yelnya is.

The best I've found so far has a couple of photos of smaller units at the Pogonovo training grounds, near Voronezh, some units in Crimea, and again Yelnya. Either way, the point at which invasion preparations reach a certain stage, we would see large troop formations moving near the Ukrainian border. And we've seen this in the past many times (with far less media and diplomatic attention from the west). This time around we see far more muted Russian movements that could be interpreted as preparations of some kind for action in Ukraine (but might not be) and we see a huge amount of attention on it from western press and political circles. It looks odd.

Boots On The Ground: Satellite Images Reveal Russian Troop Buildup Near Ukrainian Border And In Crimea

Maxar Technologies, a satellite-imaging company, has released photographs that show a big Russian troop buildup near the Ukrainian border and in Crimea.

www.rferl.org

EDIT: Behind the scenes, an anonymous source in the State Department is quoted saying that Ukraine was told NATO membership is unlikely within the next decade. This falls in line with similar statements on EU membership made at other occasions.

But senior State Department officials have told Ukraine that NATO membership is unlikely to be approved in the next decade, according to a person familiar with those private talks who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Biden assures Ukraine's leader of US support to deter Russia

President Joe Biden has reached out to Ukraine’s leader as the United States moves to take a more direct role in diplomacy between that country and Russia.

apnews.com

 

[Vivendi]

Relevant article from "the drive":

Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Spotted Moving Closer To Ukraine (thedrive.com)

What do Feanor and our other Russia experts make of this? Consistent with what was known from other sources?

In other news, BBC reports that Putin has compared the situation in Donbas to "genocide".

The Russian president's remarks on Thursday were aimed at addressing the issue of discrimination against Russian speakers beyond Russia's borders, many of whom live in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

He said that Russophobia was the first step towards genocide.
"We see and know what is happening in Donbas," he said, referring to the conflict zone. "It certainly looks like genocide."

Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide - BBC News

TASS reports the same:
Developments in Donbass look like genocide — Putin - World - TASS

What is the background for raising the genocide flag? To me it sounds strange that the rebels in Donbass with support from the resourceful Russian army would be incapable of preventing genocide in Donbass. Is something lost in translation here?
In any case it sounds ominous.

Finally, Russia claims that Ukraine are moving artillery closer to the rebel controlled area: Russia accuses Ukraine of mobilising artillery, feigning negotiations | Reuters

It seems to me that Russia is escalating their rhetoric quite substantially right now.

 

[SolarWind]

Calling the Donbass war a genocide may signal that Russia may be considering an intervention, similarly as what happened immediately prior to the annexation of Crimea, as similar calls were made back then, that is that ethnic Russians of Crimea were under threat of terrorism or physical violence. But reports suggesting Russia is ready and poised to attack, and analysis that it could annex the breakaway Donbass regions, if not more, seem to already have been published, so this does not exactly ring as news. As far as what message it might send depends on what is actually taking place, as some doubt regarding the truthfulness of recent news reports are raised by Feanor.

Air defense systems and long range artillery close to the border, if they are there, might be meant to counter any strike UAVs and their control stations, such as the Bayraktar system, that Ukraine now operates, in order to "even the odds" for the "insurgents". But these systems are obviously capable of much more than the control of threat from UAV systems.

Finally, for the last number of years, I have seen many published reports of Ukrainian artillery moving close to rebel controlled areas. A war keeps raging there with Russia seemingly continuing to provide enough support to the Lughansk and the Donetsk breakaway regions to keep them afloat.

 

[Feanor]

Relevant article from "the drive":

Russian Air Defense Missile Systems Spotted Moving Closer To Ukraine (thedrive.com)

What do Feanor and our other Russia experts make of this? Consistent with what was known from other sources?

This is the sort of material that's consistent with a Russian military buildup. There's a few videos here from late October, which may be units moving after West-2021. Emphasis on may. One of the more recent tweets refer to a motor-rifle unit from Tyva moving to Smolensk region. Yel'nya is in Smolensk region. The other one is talking about the 4th Guards Tank Div elements moving to Maslovka. That point is actually on the Ukrainian border (or right next to it). So far not corroborated with other sources.

In other news, BBC reports that Putin has compared the situation in Donbas to "genocide".

Russia Ukraine: Putin compares Donbas war zone to genocide - BBC News

TASS reports the same:
Developments in Donbass look like genocide — Putin - World - TASS

What is the background for raising the genocide flag? To me it sounds strange that the rebels in Donbass with support from the resourceful Russian army would be incapable of preventing genocide in Donbass. Is something lost in translation here?
In any case it sounds ominous.

It does, and there's nothing lost in translation. Putin said the situation in Donbass looks a lot like genocide. This sounds a lot like rhetoric from 2014 and even more so from the Georgian War.

Finally, Russia claims that Ukraine are moving artillery closer to the rebel controlled area: Russia accuses Ukraine of mobilising artillery, feigning negotiations | Reuters

It seems to me that Russia is escalating their rhetoric quite substantially right now.

A few other things happened. Right around the Zelensky-Biden phone call, a Ukrainian Navy ship (the Donbass, a "control ship") headed towards the Kerch straight, ignoring all signs from Russian Coast Guard, and without following the normal transit procedure for the straight. It hung out off to the side, near the straight for some time, then turned around. Russian ships, helos, and ground-attack jets, were scrambled. It looked like preparations for a repeat of the last Kerch straight incident that were cancelled after whatever was discussed.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Новая провокация в Керченском проливе

Корабль управления Донбасс по сообщениям погранслужбы ФСБ вышел из Мариуполя и двинулся к Керченскому проливу, не отвечая на запросы. Сейчас он тусуется в 18 милях к северу от пролива, уклоняясь от общения с контролирующими пролив службами и игнорируя указания по смене курса.…

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Also Russia closed ~70% of the Azov sea for navigation. Allegedly it's due to military exercises involving artillery live-fire.

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diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

Another delivery of 30 Javelin launchers and 180 missiles took place.

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Your life is the best story! Just start your blog today!

diana-mihailova.livejournal.com

 

[tequilashooter]

Военный США отвёл украинской армии 40 минут в бою с российскими ВС (topcor-ru.translate.goog)

The US military took the Ukrainian army 40 minutes in a battle with the Russian Armed Forces

In the event of a direct armed conflict between Moscow and Kiev, the Russian army will defeat a significant part of the troops of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a very short period of time. This was stated by Robert Lee, professor of the elite King's College London, a veteran of the US Marine Corps, writes the American newspaper The New York Times.

The retired Marine calculated that Ukrainian troops would hold out in combat against their well-equipped Russian counterparts for less than one hour. The Russians can destroy Ukrainian troops very quickly, within the first 30-40 minutes - the professor is convinced.

The publication noted that some prominent Ukrainian functionaries agree with this opinion. For example, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Brigadier General Kirill Budanov. He said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to fight the "aggressor", but to contain a full-scale "invasion", Kiev needs more weapons, which it hopes to receive from the West in the form of support.

However, even support does not guarantee anything, since the Russians have colossal firepower and the ability to destroy the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over long distances. This can lead to the loss of Ukraine's defense capability, since the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose controllability. Communication, supply and coordination will cease to work.

The commanders of large formations and the commanders of individual units will have to conduct hostilities at their own discretion. However, stocks of ammunition will quickly run out and a widespread retreat will begin. Therefore, Ukraine will be able to effectively resist Russia only with direct military assistance from the armies of NATO countries and allies of the bloc, when they are on Ukrainian territory.

@tequilashooter

This is simply a cut paste of the the article you linked. You have added no value to this post and simply regurgitated the less that reliable article. Please read the rules.

For a start if you had bothered to check on Robert Lee you would find he is a graduate student .... not a professor.

Robert Lee | King's College London - Academia.edu

In addition the papers he has published are all related to cyber issues. The article you copied seems to be a combination of a range of reports such as this one ....

Ukraine Commanders Say a Russian Invasion Would Overwhelm Them - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

This post adds nothing to the discussion. If future posts continue in the vein you should expect some sort of sanction.

alexsa

 

[kato]

Военный США отвёл украинской армии 40 минут в бою с российскими ВС (topcor-ru.translate.goog)

"User-generated" propaganda website Warfiles.ru as a source hiding the URL behind a translator website... uh, okay.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In a "wartime" it is not even guaranteed Ukraine will put up a fight, despite the rhetoric. Unless the US and allies decide to physically aid Ukraine with more than just some equipment, of course.