The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Ananda]

It appears Russia is preparing for the annexation of Kherson region and possibly southern parts of Zaporozhye as well.

The talking this area will be revive Taurida Governorates of old Russian Empire.



Off course it will not fly on Modern International law, but seems this's what Russia trying to sell. Well if China can claim SCS nine dash line based on some old Imperial China record, seems Russia will so the same on reviving old Russian Empire provinces.

Just curiosity the area on this Taurida Governorates is similar area of Kherson and part of Zaporizhye that under Russian control now. Wonder if this is by design from beginning.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Ukraine conflict: Russian soldiers seen killing unarmed civilians

The incident, captured on video seen by the BBC, is being investigated as a suspected war crime.

www.bbc.co.uk

The BBC reports it has footage of Russian soldiers shooting unarmed Ukrainian security guards in the back. The Russians were stupid enough to hang around the facility without their helmets and masks on, only destroying cameras after they'd had their identities recorded.

 

[John Fedup]

Ukraine conflict: Russian soldiers seen killing unarmed civilians

The incident, captured on video seen by the BBC, is being investigated as a suspected war crime.

www.bbc.co.uk

The BBC reports it has footage of Russian soldiers shooting unarmed Ukrainian security guards in the back. The Russians were stupid enough to hang around the facility without their helmets and masks on, only destroying cameras after they'd had their identities recorded.

A CNN report on this mentions one person was the business owner and the other person was a security person hired to help protect the business. Their video shows both being interviewed by the soldiers then they walk away and the soldiers reappear and shoot them in the back. Great video for enhancing future weapons deliveries to Ukraine and illustrative of Russian brutality and stupidity.

 

[T.C.P]

Allegedly the first use of Brimstones in Ukraine-

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/uo4avf
Its an interesting launcher. I remember report around a couple years back, that MBDA were developing a brimstone that could be launched from an APC chasis, as a pure anti tank system. I wonder how much progress that project has made.

 

[catullus76]

In assessing whether or not the Russians have the number of troops needed to take Donbas I've heard claims that you need about a 3 to 1 advantage to take territory in the open field and perhaps 5 to 1 in the city. Does anyone know how many soldiers the Germans had from March 1918 to August 1918 when they actually succeeded in taking territory. I realize that now that the Ukrainians have better weapons than the Russians that the ratios are slightly harder to calculate.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It seems that the Russian armed forces ar back at Zmiiny.
I wonder if they have learned from the past and keep in mind that UCAVs are flying around all the time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524846288105263108

And Ukraine still may have some Neptunes left over.

 

[Feanor]

It seems that the Russian armed forces ar back at Zmiiny.
I wonder if they have learned from the past and keep in mind that UCAVs are flying around all the time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524846288105263108

And Ukraine still may have some Neptunes left over.

Or not Neptunes... we have unconfirmed reports of Manta T-12 unmanned drones, and confirmed reports of Brimstones, the latter with a launcher platform disguised as a regular civilian truck. We also know Ukraine has M-777s, with at least rocket-assisted projectiles. Hell, Ukraine still has BM-27s, BM-30s and Tochkas in service.

Добрый Морячок

#новости США направили на Украину неизвестное количество беспилотных дронов. С большой вероятностью, это Mantas T-12. Сайт FedScoop недавно сообщил, что украинские военные прошли обучение работе с беспилотными военно-морскими системами на военно-морской базе в Литтл-Крик, штат Вирджиния...

t.me

Наземная пусковая установка управляемых ракет Brimstone вооруженных сил Украины

В украинских социальных сетях 12 мая 2022 года была распространена краткая видеозапись со впервые продемонстрированной используемой вооруженными силами Украины наземной пусковой установкой для запуска британских управляемых ракет MBDA Brimstone. На видео с пусковой установки с короткими интервалами…

bmpd.livejournal.com

США поставили Украине 155мм снаряды с дальностью стрельбы до 30 км (видео)

gurkhan.blogspot.com

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: Encouraging a smarter discussion

1. Infantry vs armour is always an unequal fight — as a former conscript trained to operate 2 types of anti-tank weapons, I think of the warfare seen in the Batle of Kyiv, Ukraine, as a delay or counter-mobility battle. The main aim being to bog down (or slow down the rate of enemy advance) — to buy time, to better prepare the defences and to channel the enemy to preferred kill zones through the recce vs counter-recce fight.

2. Being seen, is often death for recce elements. Having family members who are trained as tank crew or armoured infantry, the leg infantry side of my family, like me and my son, have a pretty good idea of our preferred anti-armour tactics; which also means infantry troops prefer to fight in complex terrain. Infantry units need to choose the location of the fight, when combat power is unequal.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1525006113770553344

3. This thread is an interesting discussion on the software in modern ATGMs like the NLAW but this particular missile is not well suited for every army’s anti-armour CONOPS (eg. Singapore, Isreal & Taiwan). In some ways this is an over simplified take, when applied to the different tactics being used in Ukraine, in a complex terrain fight.

 

[Atunga]

It seems that the Russian armed forces ar back at Zmiiny.
I wonder if they have learned from the past and keep in mind that UCAVs are flying around all the time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524846288105263108

And Ukraine still may have some Neptunes left over.

What really happened at snake island? The Ukrainians claim they destroyed Russian army and their equipments. The Russians claim they counter attacked the Ukrainians and shot down helicopters and killed most of the Ukrainians on the island..

Ukraine battles Russia in Black Sea over strategic Snake Island

A remote island off Ukraine occupied by Russia on the first day of its invasion has, as Kyiv steps up efforts to retake it, become the focal point of what some defence officials believe may become a battle for control of the western Black Sea coast.

www.reuters.com

@Feanor do u have any update on what really happened on snake island? Ur updates have been very helpful in keeping the balance of information.. thank u for the nice work u do with updates, more grease to your elbow.. it’s hard to believe any side completely in this war.. the West and Ukraine is proving to be worst than Russia in the propaganda department.

 

[Exonian]

Zimiinyi/Snake Island has become a symbol of Ukraine defiance against Russia, perhaps a little like Verdun for France, or Ypres for Belgium in WWI.

I would think it is important that Ukraine does not allow Russia to properly militarise the Island for offensive action, but they need to be clever how they use the munitions they have available and not to overreach. One tactic could be to use the Island as a kind of 'tethered goat' to attract Russia Navy to attempt to fortify the Island, then destroy them piecemeal at each attempt. If successful the Island could become the modern equivalent of Iron Bottom Sound as Russia loses further vessels.

 

[Atunga]

Continue to see reports that suggest Ukraine lost a lot trying to take back snake island….

MEDIA DELETED. MISINFORMATION.

any information on the Ukrainian counter offensive? It’s seems like anytime Ukraine makes progress in one area they lose in 3 other areas.. Western media not covering the lose of Popasnaya at all.. can Ukraine really push Russia out? Or is this just western thinking? If Russia still manages to accomplish its objectives in Ukraine with a high number of casualties, can Russia still call it a win? The Russians still feel very confident that they will win and they still claim to be going soft in Ukraine. Power stations, electric grids, internet connections, decision making centres are still up and going, the Russians have not gone after the leadership of Ukraine, something that will throw Ukraine off balance. When u consider all this put together, u can see why they call it a special military operation and not war against Ukraine

 

[STURM]

an Russia still call it a win?

Well they can't call it a loss now can they? What defines a ''win'' is up to the Russians; following the failure in the north they claimed that it was part of their plan and the plan called for seizing the Donbass. As a face saving gesture their definition of what constitutes a ''win'' will evolve.

the Russians have not gone after the leadership of Ukraine, something that will throw Ukraine off balance.

That was a question I was wondering about and there was mention in a BBC video I watched [can't remember the title] about Russian infiltrators trying to look for Zelensky. He's working from an undisclosed location and heavily guarded.

why they call it a special military operation and not war against Ukraine

They called it that because it was less politically impactful.

 

[SolarWind]

Continue to see reports that suggest Ukraine lost a lot trying to take back snake island….

MEDIA DELETED. MISINFORMATION.

any information on the Ukrainian counter offensive? It’s seems like anytime Ukraine makes progress in one area they lose in 3 other areas.. Western media not covering the lose of Popasnaya at all.. can Ukraine really push Russia out? Or is this just western thinking? If Russia still manages to accomplish its objectives in Ukraine with a high number of casualties, can Russia still call it a win? The Russians still feel very confident that they will win and they still claim to be going soft in Ukraine. Power stations, electric grids, internet connections, decision making centres are still up and going, the Russians have not gone after the leadership of Ukraine, something that will throw Ukraine off balance. When u consider all this put together, u can see why they call it a special military operation and not war against Ukraine

This has been stated before, Kiev as a whole, and most importantly its historic sites, have great symbolic meanings for Russian leadership-approved Russian psyche. I think this is the reason they would not subject Kiev to bombardments and destruction as elsewhere. Ukrainian command must know that Kyiv has such meaning for Russia and they might exploit that. Russian activity supports this view as they originally seek night-time takeover using special ops, and later completely withdraw upon failure of that. Moreover, declaring a full all-out-war against Ukraine would have its consequences that might be currently unacceptable to Russian leadership. This seems a sum of reasons why this is a "special military operation" and not a war.

I also have to say, Russian troops' foolish and excessive barbarism and savageness in their war crimes are absolutely abhorrent and disgusting. Russia will not be able to wipe this out from history. The only way to begin to redeem itself would be if Russia prosecutes the war criminals on its own instead of denying the issue.

 

[Feanor]

What really happened at snake island? The Ukrainians claim they destroyed Russian army and their equipments. The Russians claim they counter attacked the Ukrainians and shot down helicopters and killed most of the Ukrainians on the island..

Ukraine battles Russia in Black Sea over strategic Snake Island

A remote island off Ukraine occupied by Russia on the first day of its invasion has, as Kyiv steps up efforts to retake it, become the focal point of what some defence officials believe may become a battle for control of the western Black Sea coast.

www.reuters.com

@Feanor do u have any update on what really happened on snake island? Ur updates have been very helpful in keeping the balance of information.. thank u for the nice work u do with updates, more grease to your elbow.. it’s hard to believe any side completely in this war.. the West and Ukraine is proving to be worst than Russia in the propaganda department.

The difference here is that Ukraine's claims about this incident are corroborated by evidence while Russian claims are so far completely unsubstantiated. The only destroyed helo we can confirm is a Russian "dolphin-nose" Hip variant from the 487th Helo Rgt. We have no confirmation on any destroyed jets, and the scale of the incident according to Ukraine's claims, somewhat confirmed by Russian sources, isn't that big.

Ukraine took out a handful of air defense systems, and then hit the island killing and wounding some service members, then double-tapped the evacuation team. That's about it. Russia then made repeated and growing claims about a sunk Ukrainian landing boat, and at this point over 2 dozen claimed downed Ukrainian aircraft (the claimed number might be higher now, it keeps growing and I'm somewhat behind). I have only seen two data points consistent with (but not directly supporting) Russia's narrative.

One is that satellite image of Ukrainian vessels moving away from the island, allegedly after a failed landing attempt. Yes, in a failed landing attempt, vessels would be moving away from the island. However, there could be many other reasons for this, and the authenticity of the image is not confirmed. The other is that Ukraine released information on the death of a Ukrainian Naval Aviation pilot. Russian sources promptly linked this to the Zmeiniy Island incident. However Ukraine has made a practice of releasing confirmation of deaths late (sometimes weeks later) so we don't really know when this pilot was killed. He could have been killed at Zmeiniy, hypothetically.

Now we have Russian forces back on the ground at Zmeiniy. The debris field from multiple downed Ukrainian helos (the initial claim was 3 destroyed while landing troops) should be huge. That island is tiny. Where are the telegram posts with picture of smashed Ukrainian helos scattered over the island? They photograph and publish footage of the same two destroyed Kozak armored cars at Izyum 3, 4, 5 times... all in all the Russian narrative around Zmeiniy is not currently credible and won't become credible without considerable amounts of additional evidence.

 

[Twain]

any information on the Ukrainian counter offensive? It’s seems like anytime Ukraine makes progress in one area they lose in 3 other areas.. Western media not covering the lose of Popasnaya at all.. can Ukraine really push Russia out?

That really depends on two things, Continued supply of modern western weapons and the state of the russian army. They are already running short of components for advanced systems.

Russian troops are using dishwasher and refrigerator parts to fix military equipment

And the U.S. Commerce Secretary is taking credit for it.

fortune.com

Russian troops are using parts from dishwashers and refrigerators to fix their broken military equipment in Ukraine, a top U.S. official has said.

Or is this just western thinking? If Russia still manages to accomplish its objectives in Ukraine with a high number of casualties, can Russia still call it a win? The Russians still feel very confident that they will win

I'm sure that russia will declare it a win no matter the end state, that won't make it true. Strategically they have already lost.
Here's just a few reasons why

1 Finland and sweden are joining nato
2 The russian military will be years recovering from this
3 Nearly the entire industrialized word is united against them
4 Europe is already moving toward reducing the use of russian oil and gas forcing russia to sell it at a discount to china and india

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1519646904140795905

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1523601803644137472

5 NATO members are significantly increasing defence budgets to buy equipment that is superior to russian equipment
Even if Putin conquers all of Ukraine, he's already lost

and they still claim to be going soft in Ukraine. Power stations, electric grids, internet connections, decision making centres are still up and going,

Somehow I don't think the residents of Bucha, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, mariupol and many man many other cities and towns would agree with you that russia is going soft on them. Most infrastructure is still intact for a few related reasons. (here's a few)

1 Russia already has a shortage of PGM's

Russia May Be Showing It’s Running Low On Precision-Guided Munitions

Precision-guided missiles are expensive, with complex electronics, and analysts say Russia likely hadn't built up a large supply before it invaded Ukraine. After expending over 1,200, Russia is likely running short.

www.forbes.com

2 Less than accurate russian PGM's

Russian Guided Weapons Miss the Mark, U.S. Defense Officials Say (Published 2022)

The lack of warplanes at Russia’s Victory Day parade underscores President Vladimir V. Putin’s failure to build a capable modern air force.

www.nytimes.com

3 Contested Airspace

No Stealth: Why the Russian Air Force Keeps Failing in Ukraine

Why aren't the Russians able to achieve air superiority?

nationalinterest.org

the Russians have not gone after the leadership of Ukraine, something that will throw Ukraine off balance. When u consider all this put together, u can see why they call it a special military operation and not war against Ukraine

• Russians twice targeted Zelensky compound with attacks, Ukraine says
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has 'survived three assassination attempts in the past week': Plots were foiled by double agents within the FSB

Russia tried, they failed

 

[Feanor]

I also have to say, Russian troops' foolish and excessive barbarism and savageness in their war crimes are absolutely abhorrent and disgusting. Russia will not be able to wipe this out from history. The only way to begin to redeem itself would be if Russia prosecutes the war criminals on its own instead of denying the issue.

Russian government reaction to the publicity surrounding Bucha is very telling. Unfortunately despite the evidence, I suspect Russian government officials will deny, obfuscate, and do next to nothing to address the issue.

 

[SolarWind]

Russian government reaction to the publicity surrounding Bucha is very telling. Unfortunately despite the evidence, I suspect Russian government officials will deny, obfuscate, and do next to nothing to address the issue.

One has to wonder what level of isomorphism information goes through before it reaches the top in Russian leadership and how corrupt and divided the chain is in that they themselves seem to fall for these obfuscations.

 

[Feanor]

Some details on Zmeiniy. We have our first post-strike footage of the whole island. No sign of the helo wreckages. One patch that could conceivably be the destroyed Mi-8ATMSh. A Russian Pantsyr is on the island, and a second landing boat brought it (you can still see the sunken one next to it).

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[ngatimozart]

What really happened at snake island? The Ukrainians claim they destroyed Russian army and their equipments. The Russians claim they counter attacked the Ukrainians and shot down helicopters and killed most of the Ukrainians on the island..

Ukraine battles Russia in Black Sea over strategic Snake Island

A remote island off Ukraine occupied by Russia on the first day of its invasion has, as Kyiv steps up efforts to retake it, become the focal point of what some defence officials believe may become a battle for control of the western Black Sea coast.

www.reuters.com

@Feanor do u have any update on what really happened on snake island? Ur updates have been very helpful in keeping the balance of information.. thank u for the nice work u do with updates, more grease to your elbow.. it’s hard to believe any side completely in this war.. the West and Ukraine is proving to be worst than Russia in the propaganda department.

The Russian claims are incorrect. As @OPSSG has stated here, the helicopter was a Mi-8AMTSh , a type not operated by the Ukrainians.

Your allegations about the the "West and Ukraine is proving to be worst than Russia in the propaganda department." require evidence from reliable, reputable, verifiable sources. Such evidence is to be provided within 24 hours, that is 0300 UTC-GMT Sunday 15/5/2022. Failure to do so will result in Moderator sanctions against you.

EDIT: 0700 UTC-GMT Sunday 15/5/2022.
@Atunga banned for one month for failing too provide the required evidence.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: Encouraging a smarter discussion

The difference here is that Ukraine's claims about this incident are corroborated by evidence while Russian claims are so far completely unsubstantiated. The only destroyed helo we can confirm is a Russian "dolphin-nose" Hip variant from the 487th Helo Rgt. We have no confirmation on any destroyed jets, and the scale of the incident according to Ukraine's claims, somewhat confirmed by Russian sources, isn't that big.

Ukraine took out a handful of air defense systems, and then hit the island killing and wounding some service members, then double-tapped the evacuation team. That's about it. Russia then made repeated and growing claims about a sunk Ukrainian landing boat, and at this point over 2 dozen claimed downed Ukrainian aircraft (the claimed number might be higher now, it keeps growing and I'm somewhat behind). I have only seen two data points consistent with (but not directly supporting) Russia's narrative.

…

Now we have Russian forces back on the ground at Zmeiniy. The debris field from multiple downed Ukrainian helos (the initial claim was 3 destroyed while landing troops) should be huge. That island is tiny. Where are the telegram posts with picture of smashed Ukrainian helos scattered over the island? The photograph and publish footage of the same two destroyed Kozak armored cars at Izyum 3, 4, 5 times... all in all the Russian narrative around Zmeiniy is not currently credible and won't become credible without considerable amounts of additional evidence.

4. Thanks for explaining, much appreciated. IMO, the post by @Atunga is the act of a Russian propagandist, sowing misinformation in an failed attempt to mislead.

What really happened at snake island? The Ukrainians claim they destroyed Russian army and their equipments. The Russians claim they counter attacked the Ukrainians and shot down helicopters and killed most of the Ukrainians on the island..

... it’s hard to believe any side completely in this war.. the West and Ukraine is proving to be worst than Russia in the propaganda department.

5. And there are plenty of useful idiots are engaging that in defending the undefensible (eg. the Russian war of aggression, the fairly well documented war crimes and their deliberate targeting of civilians) — our team of Moderators will not allow @Atunga to strip Russian defeat on the snake island battle of its context in DefenceTalk.

6. Allowing this behaviour is problematic, as some portion of his post is factually not true. We have also deleted a link provided by him to a disreputable source — aka a fake source created by a right wing nut case.

7. There aren’t two sides to a lie. The forum should be non-partisan, but not neutral. Discussions here must be biased in favor of the truth and facts.