The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[KipPotapych]

Update from Olenya:

Source: https://x.com/avivector/status/1930197847372083433

Another thread with more satellite photos: https://x.com/KOvsianyi/status/1930152545252413931

With a fair amount of clarity now, I see people counting 41, about 30, 23, 22, 17. 16, 13, and 11 units destroyed and damaged. Haha.

The War Zome article only concentrates the subject (numbers line up with Feanor’s last post):

Confirmed Losses Of Russian Aircraft Mount After Ukrainian Drone Assault

Some of the bombers were armed with cruise missiles when Ukraine’s drones rained down on them. Some of the bombers were armed with cruise missiles when Ukraine’s drones rained down on them.

www.twz.com

In the article above, they cited another article that talks about the tires on the aircraft. Interesting for someone with little knowledge of the subject matter (ie, me):

Russia Covering Aircraft With Tires Is About Confusing Image-Matching Missile Seekers U.S. Military Confirms

Russia's efforts to confuse munitions with seekers with imaging-matching capabilities speak to issues that go beyond the war in Ukraine.

www.twz.com

Another article on the related subject:

Satellite images show the unusual tire tactic and fake decoy aircraft that failed to save Russia's bombers from Ukrainian drones

Russia had employed deceptive measures at its airbases in the days and weeks leading up to the Ukrainian operation.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[vikingatespam]

I do agree. Those attacks against airbases could have been done with mortars (it has been done before),

An interesting conjecture; something I have thought about the vulnerability to here. A 81mm mortar would range out to 5 km easily, but you would need spotters with eyes on the target, and likely, no one is going to get away.

 

[vikingatespam]

Today, the SBU also released the full video. I haven’t counted everything — too lazy to deal with it. But maybe someone will find this info useful for their own calculations. Служба безпеки України

Spoiler: Times

Olenya:

• 00:02, 00:07, 00:25 — Tu-95; explosion moment at 00:32
• 00:10, 00:37 — Tu-95
• 00:16, 00:46, 00:53 — Tu-95
• 00:21 — Tu-95
• 00:41 — Tu-95
• 00:57 — Tu-22
• 01:05 — Tu-22
• 01:12 — Tu-22
• 01:22 — An-12

Ivanovo:

• 01:31 — A-50
• 01:55 — A-50

Dyagilevo:

• 02:01, 02:10 — Tu-22
• 02:17 — Tu-22
• 02:20 — Tu-22

"Belaya":

• 02:31, 02:40 — Tu-22
• 02:49, 03:28 — Tu-22
• 02:52 — Tu-22
• 03:02 — Tu-22
• 03:08, 03:13 — Tu-22
• 03:22 — Tu-22
• 03:32 — Tu-22
• 03:47, 03:56 — Tu-22
• 04:05 — Tu-95
• 04:18 — Il-78
• 04:24 — Tu-95

Another link is here:

https://ssu.gov.ua/novyny/sbu-pokazala-unikalni-kadry-spetsoperatsii-pavutyna-u-rezultati-yakoi-urazheno-41-viiskovyi-litak-stratehichnoi-aviatsii-rf-video

The video shows somewhere in the area of 41 "hits" (I didnt count), but I would take a hit to mean anything from very light damage to burning wreck. I dont know what warheads were used, nor the weight of the charge, but I would expect an explosion with a direct contact is likely fatal to the aircraft returning to service, except as spare parts. On the flip side a few "hits" appear to be 5-10 feet away, and it would be difficult to gauge the impact on the airplane. Its quite possible that the damage is not visible to satellite imagery.

I should note, that according to posts on project Owl, the RU are already cleaning up the debris and moving planes around.

Another note - around 3:35 you see that one Tu-22 was already hit, so some planes may have taken more than 1 drone. THis is rather interesting as I suspect a human operator would divert to an undamaged plane. Which in turn brings up something interesting in the video. The attack vectors are all rather different. A minority were very controlled hover-and-drop, but most were at various angles and heights. How much AI control was going on here ?

Another edit: notice how many hits were very carefully aiming for the joint at the fuselage and wing (wing root).

 

[seaspear]

Ukraine targeted the older bombers, there were other aircraft more modern that could also hold the khinzal missiles for instance would these been a better target ?

 

[vikingatespam]

Ukraine targeted the older bombers, there were other aircraft more modern that could also hold the khinzal missiles for instance would these been a better target ?

How many Khinzals are used compared to what the Bears lob onto UKR on a daily basis ? I suspect the Tu-160, which are rarely ever used for conventional deliveries, were deliberately left off the target list.

Im going to take a swag, that based off of the official UKR video, that 20% of the RU strategic bomber force just got retired. Thats a big win.

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine targeted the older bombers, there were other aircraft more modern that could also hold the khinzal missiles for instance would these been a better target ?

There are no more modern aircraft that carry the Kinzhal. Currently only MiG-31Ks carry them. And they're a poor target. Russia has many MiG-31s in storage that could be restored and converted as Kinzhal carriers.

How many Khinzals are used compared to what the Bears lob onto UKR on a daily basis ? I suspect the Tu-160, which are rarely ever used for conventional deliveries, were deliberately left off the target list.

Im going to take a swag, that based off of the official UKR video, that 20% of the RU strategic bomber force just got retired. Thats a big win.

Strategic bombers are only the Tu-95s and Tu-160s, so you're pretty close. The size of the Tu-22M fleet in active service is unclear so... it gets unclear. Either way, an ugly number.

In principle they could pull Tu-95s and Tu-22Ms out of storage, but I'm not sure how well they can overhaul them.

 

[hauritz]

How many Khinzals are used compared to what the Bears lob onto UKR on a daily basis ? I suspect the Tu-160, which are rarely ever used for conventional deliveries, were deliberately left off the target list.

Im going to take a swag, that based off of the official UKR video, that 20% of the RU strategic bomber force just got retired. Thats a big win.

Russia and America are both required to park their strategic bombers out in the open so both sides can use satellites to verify that the other is adhering to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty requirements. That being the case we may see many more of these aircraft retired.

Conspiracy time. This is actually doing the US and NATO a big favour since I doubt Russia has the capability to replace any of these assets. Hitting strategic assets like this will make it a little easier for US and other European nations to justify continuing to pour funding into this war and allow Ukraine access to even more capable long range strike weapons.

 

[vikingatespam]

Russia and America are both required to park their strategic bombers out in the open so both sides can use satellites to verify that the other is adhering to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty requirements. That being the case we may see many more of these aircraft retired.

Conspiracy time. This is actually doing the US and NATO a big favour since I doubt Russia has the capability to replace any of these assets. Hitting strategic assets like this will make it a little easier for US and other European nations to justify continuing to pour funding into this war and allow Ukraine access to even more capable long range strike weapons.

The Bears and Tu22 are the least important leg of the RU nuclear triad. I doubt anyone outside of RU or UKR really cares about these premature deaths.

 

[vikingatespam]

Not to keep talking to myself, but in the UKR video of the drone impacts, if you look at about 0:45, there is a second drone hit on a Bear. However if you notice, there is already one hit on it, in the upper center fuselage. The tires on the wings, which are not far away, do not appear to be disturbed from that original hit. Would this be evidence of shaped charges being used ?

Edit: at 3:03 something small drops from the drone. An arming pin or device of some sort ?

3:32: The Tu-22 is getting double-tapped, with the first hit right behind the cockpit.