The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[rsemmes]

-Friday...
A Russian ballistic missile strike in Ukraine’s Kyiv region has killed 10 people and ⁠injured almost 100 at ⁠the site of a defence industry event that Volodymyr Zelenskyy said should never have taken place. Pictures posted online by the Ukraine Emergency Services showed teams sifting through piles of rubble at the site north of the capital, adjacent to several houses, after Friday’s attack.
“Of course, the cause of this attack ⁠is Russian missiles, nothing but Russian terror,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address.

Ukraine war briefing: Russia launches deadly attack on weapons exhibition near Kyiv

Zelenskyy says defence industry event should not have taken place; US influencer Laura Loomer visits Kyiv. What we know on day 1,613

www.theguardian.com

-Saturday...
Twelve people were killed, including five children, in an drone attack ⁠on a holiday camp in a Russian-held part of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region, Russian-installed local authorities said on Saturday, ⁠accusing Ukraine of deliberately attacking civilians. Kyiv did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Ukraine war briefing: Iran accuses Kyiv of deadly attack on Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea

Zelenskyy says Iran is using Russian satellite images to help direct strikes in Middle East. What we know on day 1,614

www.theguardian.com

So, that is "nothing but Ukrainian terror", like "war crimes and undermining Black Sea security by attacking civilian merchant ships" (S. Koretskyi). I have called Zelenski "delusional", maybe it's just that he, together with the Prime Minister, are very good at doublethink... or that they suffer some dissociative disorder.

 

[crest]

a bit of info on the russian arena system it seems there loaded manualy at least from the video..looks like about 12 rounds and other defences

 

[Feanor]

i would presume that fact lends creadibilty to your theory

Things will be murky for a while. For example, we don't really have the full picture on what happened. Does Russia view the system as successful based on this event? Obviously the column didn't get where it's going, but even a 50% effective APS against FPV drones could be seen as worthwhile. We also don't know if there are production bottle-necks. So if we don't see many Arena-equipped tanks in coming months is it that they're not available? Is it that the system is deemed not good enough and undergoing additional development? Or is it that they're being held back for when Russia thinks they can re-introduce some level of mechanized warfare? Or are they being held back because interceptor stocks are low and you don't want to risk valuable assets when they will be less effective?

 

[KipPotapych]

Things that didn’t happen…



“Conventional sorties over DONETSK”, hitting a target about 7.5 km from the frontline with a bomb able to “glide” over 75 km. Google and Deepstate:





Following the logic, what could be concluded for the Russian bombs dropping 70-130 km behind the frontline?


Since there is a space for one more attachment. The recent Loomer popularity contest ends with her regular racist bullshit:



Also, shouldn’t these type of articles start with “Not to be a conspiracy theorist”?

Exclusive: In a Ukrainian bomb shelter, Laura Loomer explains shift on Russia’s war

Laura Loomer became infamous for spreading conspiracy theories online. Now, as she travels across Ukraine to see the damage inflicted by Russia in its yearslong war, she wants to admit that she fell for some falsehoods of her own.

apnews.com

She is gonna make bank on this real media trip. I mean is there an outlet that didn’t talk about this schizo in the past week or so? The daftness is rather spectacular. I am not sure, is it to validate the narrative or what is the goal of free advertising for this parasite that calculated rather well to cash in?

 

[KipPotapych]

A thought on that ^ Loomer bit there. Imagine that it is true what she said and she thinks she has not seen a single muslim in Ukraine. Consider how narrow these people’s understanding is and how clear their bigoted profiling is, simply based on looks of an individual. Could it be more stupid? Probably not much more so, but… I wonder if she took a tour to Kazan, Tatarstan, Russia, would she be truly bewildered about all those mosques and who they are for since the absolute majority of residents are white folks?

Someone should shoot her an idea to take a trip to Kazan next so that she can reinforce some bullshit narrative for her low-IQ readership how islam can make almost an entire city of white Russian people listen to namaz over a megaphone several times a day. This is some mind-blowing stuff! On the second thought, I could probably make good money myself feeding garbage to the borderline mentally-challenged individuals. This is not the first time I had that thought, to be honest. I mean someone will make bank regardless. Why not me? In fact, I am obviously fairly decent at pushing the Russian propaganda and I can certainly improve significantly if I got paid for it. I can be just as good pushing the other side’s fantasies if they paid better too. I mean the ideas I could feed these people about covid, white christian minority, other existential threats to their liberty, etc. I can literally show them why they are wrong, but why they are even more so right! Maybe with this post even, the goal is to discredit Loomer, while seeding the idea how the other imbecile influencers (as in influencing imbeciles) may be right, the ones who hit Russia instead (I saw Carlson and Owens mentioned… perhaps, another name I do not recall). Imma gon’be famous!


Anyway, as fun as it is… Ukraine hitting Iranian civilian/military vessel in the Caspian Sea, what’s that about? And why now? So much nonsense on the subject too. Like this, for example:



And the nonsense part applies to both of those individuals. Iran is not going to hit Ukraine with ballistic missiles and Ukraine is not going to hit Iran with Flamingos. In case of the former, it is rather obvious why. In case of the latter, hitting northern-most part of Iran would be at the upper edge of the current UA capabilities, other factors aside. The proposal is rather dumb. So why?

Some have suggested (and celebrated, obviously) that Iran had supplied Russia with the menacing drones and other support, hence, all fair and square. Remnants of threats to Belarus come to mind. Except Belarus is just over the border and Iran is far away, without a direct reach. Accompanied by this:



Imagine Ukraine knowing more about the Russian satellite movement than any other (somewhat and/or very) developed nation. “We have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance”… And of the Gulf States, to boot. Those capabilities must be quite epic.

Kind of weird though, with such capabilities and promise of being educated on handling of the Iranian drone and missile strikes, with all that expertise… Oh, wait a second… Maybe there is something here of why and whatnot.

Also, imagine having information on satellite movement and expected Iranian strikes that others do not know about, while tweeting about it postmortem. But hey,



That is just some rando’s conclusion in the comments to the thread cited above. Everyone knows, however, that UA military is the real deal, unlike ‘Mericans.

In the meantime, on the Russian strikes on Ukrainian logistics:

 

[seaspear]

Things will be murky for a while. For example, we don't really have the full picture on what happened. Does Russia view the system as successful based on this event? Obviously the column didn't get where it's going, but even a 50% effective APS against FPV drones could be seen as worthwhile. We also don't know if there are production bottle-necks. So if we don't see many Arena-equipped tanks in coming months is it that they're not available? Is it that the system is deemed not good enough and undergoing additional development? Or is it that they're being held back for when Russia thinks they can re-introduce some level of mechanized warfare? Or are they being held back because interceptor stocks are low and you don't want to risk valuable assets when they will be less effective?

There are various sites claiming the Arenas failure and complete tank losses , this system from my reading was not mounted on the more capable t-90m but an upgraded t-72 variant how likely may this have been an experiment ?, is such a system scalable to other veicles like mobile artillery and troop carrier

 

[Feanor]

There are various sites claiming the Arenas failure and complete tank losses

I don't think it was a complete failure. I think we have at least one shot of it clearly working. There's a lot of missing footage so it's hard to be certain of much. We also didn't get shots of Ukraine finishing off the immobilized tanks (unless I somehow missed it) which is also suspicious.

this system from my reading was not mounted on the more capable t-90m but an upgraded t-72 variant how likely may this have been an experiment ?

I don't believe this is correct. We've seen T-90M with Arena-M installed, and reportedly the new T-90M2 variant will come with Arena-M standard, likely either later this year or next year. T-72B3s with Arena were seen even before the war in testing, it was in the works longer. But the plan is for both tanks to carry it.

is such a system scalable to other veicles like mobile artillery and troop carrier

Theoretically? Sure. Can Russia make enough? I have my doubts.

 

[KipPotapych]

While I saw some people talking about the failure of the system, I do not believe they are serious people. Most serious people commented positively. Those in contact with the AFU units that participated in the battle commented even more positively. For example:



As per Rob, this information is from the field. Note that he says “to stop” each tank, not “destroy” it. That’s a lot of drones. For context:



Consider, for example, that this is getting, not quite, but probably to the ball park of the turtle tanks, while retaining complete tank functionality. Sure, some turtles or sheds took up to 70 drones to make a dent, but 20 is probably getting closer to some average, I would think. But again, functionality is the key. Can’t say this is an insignificant development. Time will tell.

My best guess is the videos released so far do not show much of value and the full story. The reports also suggest, like Feanor mentioned, many vehicles were not destroyed, but only immobilized. It certainly did not stop UA to add 28 (!) RU tank losses to their list that day, along with 12 other armored vehicles, 3 MLRS, ridiculous number of artillery, etc.



There will probably be more clarity in a relatively near future. As well as the overall level of failure or success of the attack. My understanding is that they got some troops where intended. The same reports suggested that the tanks chewed up a good chunk of drones by themselves for a fair number of infantry to get through. Validity of these reports is currently unknown, of course. It seems to me now that more information is available that the initial reports of “Russians took Ukrainians by surprise, but they managed” refer to this exact situation with a functional APS and not the attack itself. We will see.

Another thing that should probably be noted is that this is not some secondary direction and an opportunistic try, but one of the most defended parts of the front with some of the most capable units defending it. Those who tell you that this was just another chunk of meat thrown into the grinder by the Russians for no reason are very likely wrong and you should probably consider muting/avoiding these sources.


On a separate note, my (I hope) last mention of Loomer (talk about free advertising!):



“…world saturated with fakes, lies, and pervasive propaganda”. Laughing. I mean this is effing Loomer we are talking about! People not familiar should take a minute to learn about the person and “fakes, lies, and propaganda” she has been spreading for years. Those three words would probably be the defining three if one asked to describe her in three words. Anyway, it is beyond mildly hilarious and ridiculous.

Also, the text on the board in the photo above reads as follows (except for what is covered by her arm):

Thank you for welcoming me to Ukraine to learn more about your country! I hope you will improve your rapid response and ability to communicate with Americans and President Trump about how grateful you are to Americans. Love, Laura Loomer

Very nuanced. Surely came from her heart and new found love for Ukraine. Laughing again.