Interesting developments on the “pressure” on Russia today. First to note is the secondary sanctions. The grace period of 50 days and “around 100%”. This is interesting for a couple of reasons. One is, according to the report from Axios (via Tatarigami for me because I did not read the actual article as I had no interest), Trump told Macron that Putin wants to take it all in 60 days, whatever that means.
I am only assuming that came from the recent conversation (a week or so?) Trump had with Putin. Unless, of course, he has some intel of what is about to happen, but this is highly unlikely (see the tweet cited above, for example and sake of some citation). In case of the former, the 50-day grace period roughly lines up with the 60 days to “take it all”. Basically, Trump is saying here that he is giving Putin a chance at this last push to see what happens. Given his “deadline” history, the 50 days to be extended for another 50 or something else has a rather high probability.
The other interesting thing is the “around 100%” secondary tariffs. I had said previously here that the 500% tariff threat is a complete nonsense and has no credibility. Around 100% somewhat coincides with what he is aiming for with China anyway. This number, for example, could be around 60% in his mind, could be something else. So he is inserting here a threat to Russia, via pressure on China (and India), by what he is intending to do anyway and those who follow the “tariff” game closely likely realize that this (100%)) is too high of a number as well (China has more cards here). At the end of the day, “probably around 100%” gives the threat (maybe) more credibility, but still falls way short.
I personally do not see any other way of looking at it yet. Maybe more will be revealed in the coming days, but this is the first impression.
The second development is the advertised Patriot somethings and a whole 17 of them. Some people jumped on the wagon and reported the upcoming delivery of 17 batteries.
That would be complete nonsense, again, in my opinion. Good luck with finding 17 batteries to provide, especially (some?) within days. Others interpreted Trump’s statement to mean 17 missiles for the Patriot. Well, that would be an even bigger nonsense, I would think. So what did Trump mean? Who the hell knows is probably the correct answer. When a reporter asked him to clarify if he was talking about missiles or batteries and the whole thing, he replied “It’s a full complement, with the batteries…” It is pretty clear he has no idea what he is talking about.
But Zelensky later (or was it before, actually?) “confirmed” that he is expecting 3 batteries, two coming from Germany and one from Norway. First thing here is that Norway doesn’t have a Patriot battery, but was willing to finance one. Germans, in turn, said that they are not providing anything else from their existing stock (and another no on the Taurus missiles).
it was also reported that Germany will supply their Patriots to Ukraine as it purchases replacements, which make a lot more sense.
Pistorius also said that the decision on Patriots is coming in days or weeks.
Trump also said that it is one country that has the 17 Patriot somethings and some of them will be sent to Warsaw. I would guess he meant Poland and then to Ukraine. Some “inside sources” (I do not trust) said the following, however:
I do not trust this to take as is, but it does make sense.
Furthermore, what is the number 17? 17 “units” would represent two full batteries at or near bear minimum (provided 6 launchers per). Anyway, who the hell knows. More details will probably be revealed.
The next development is the announcement of a $10-billion aid package to Ukraine.
First of all, this ain’t the “first aid package”. This is the first direct purchase of the American made weapons to (maybe) supply Ukraine. This is important. Why? Well, most importantly, this is likely the confirmation of the US withdrawal from providing aid to Ukraine. The fate of the USAI and PDA is yet to be determined, but the limit of newly approved aid from the USA to Ukraine is now approaching 0. Infinity used to be the implied answer to the equation. That’s a huge difference. Confirmed by Trump:
That’s not a full quote, by the way, but it projects the idea. This isn’t the worst case scenario for Ukraine, which is the US withdrawal and prohibition of US purchased weapons to be supplied to Ukraine discussed here previously, but it is certainly far from ideal or even good outcome.
The next thing to note, “sold to NATO allies” but “intended for Ukraine”, ultimately. Then there also was this reported:
it was stressed by Pistorius (I think) that these were not “intended for Ukraine”, but for the Russian deterrence. Question arises here, is it a part of the advertised $10B aid package? This wouldn’t be the first such occurrence and far from it. Maybe kato has more info on this.
A notable reaction from the Russian stock market after today’s announcements:
Dmitriev, however, went to the nuke threats again (something about global winter coming or whatever it was).
Funny that both markets, the American and Russian, basically perceive Trump to be a man of TACO. Well deserved though. The guy is an idiot.
Last thing that I thought was interesting. Rutte repeating Rubio’s unsubstantiated number of 100,000 Russians killed in 2025.
I would think it goes along with the “daddy” and “well-respected” comments, among others, and brown “stuff” with unpleasant smell (Trump perfume?) all over his face. But it seems to be working with the “dear leader”. Doesn’t go well with the “have to learn Russian” though.
Edit: Lemming take on the Russian stock market reaction:
lansinginstitute.org
