Ok, WTF has happened to the Type 26 program.
Britain Struggles With Costs for New Frigates | Defense News | defensenews.com
The expected cost rumours coming out of the mill, but one number sticks out. Initially the concepts for the Type 26 ran around 5400 - 6000t,
supposedly the now expected displacement is 6500t but with a full load displacement of
8000!".
We're probably waving goodbye to a good chunk of those 13 hulls. Considering how much kit is being pulled through how on earth can there be cost issues?
I hate to say this, but it looks like it was quiet 'news' day, so someone has 'stroked the coals' on information from around 2010 /2011, where the initial design concepts of x2 hull designs, where effectively rolled into one.
Additionally, we know from experience, that initial design concepts, thru the design at pre & post contract signature, till a hull eventually enters service, the weight of said hull type can increase by as much as 1,000 - 1,500 GRT, as changes in design, capability & operability, progress thru the 5- 7 years or so it takes to get from 'back of a fag packet sketch' to ship sailing the oceans.
However, from the article, the thing I take on board is that the UK Govt is beginning to listen & think like the contractors it employs, by the utilisation of a 3rd party consultant.
It's no secret that the McKinsey Corp. had been 'assisting' UK Govt PLC since around year 2000 (if not before), on a wide variety of projects (not just of a military nature). Normally they are there to ensure 'fair play' & that VFM is being achieved, or to ensure that risk management is being used on items of High complexity, with High Risk, and Long periods of 'manufacturing', before the end product is available. All of this is 'good business sense'.
The reasoning for highlighting this fact, is also that there seems to be a step-change, in that the UK Govt & the supplier actually appear to be working hand in hand with each other to ensure success, with McKinsey appearing to be there as a 'safety blanket', ensuring that the wool isn't being pulled over anyone's eyes.
Previous Military projects over the last 15 years have been very 'them & us', with the UK Govt taking none of the responsibility for the actions & outcomes of decisions that have been made & that have allowed the supplier to look wholly 'unclean', when some of the reasoning behind design changes & cost overruns lie fairly & squarely at the feet of UK Govt PLC.
Another quote is that “
Cost is one of the areas of risk within the program that we are working through with BAE Systems before we commit to the manufacture decision. The support provided by McKinsey is a valuable contribution to this work.”
The UK MoD have in the past, made it very clear that the quantity of vessels (total numbers) CANNOT be changed, as they are of the belief that the RN is on the tipping point of becoming purely a national player, rather than a world player. IMHO, this means that rather than cutting the vessel numbers, they're more likely to manage the manufacturing scheme into 'batches'. Add into the mix BAE's ToBA with the UK Govt & it's pretty black & white, that to sustain the manufacturing capability, the UK Govt MUST agree to build a minimum of 13 ships. No if's, No but's.
Finally, the equipment 'pull-thru'...
UK Govt PLC still has to procure many of the equipments, THEN fit them to the T23's. This action will cost a fair bit of 'chump-change', add to that the 'refit & refurbishment' costs, before the kit is fitted to T26 & on top of the costs of actually designing & manufacturing the T26, then there is a WHOLE lot of funds that need to be managed, along a 30 year time-line.
That's no mean feat & will need more than a mathematician & a slide rule, to work it out...