Russian Air Force News & Discussion

[Feanor]

Some updates.

A new OTH radar is being brought online in the Russian Arctic. Note this is part of a network of larger stationary radars with alleged OTH and counter-VLO capabilities vis-a-vis radar. It's unclear how useful they will be individually but as part of the IADS they definitely add some value.

На Новой Земле установлена РЛС "Резонанс-Н"

Two S-400 regiments have been delivered this year. While they're mostly just replacing older systems, in some cases the older S-300 variants are being used to create additional units.

"Алмаз-Антей" поставил Минобороны второй за год полковой комплект С-400

Also 24 Pantsyr-S1 systems were delivered this year. We should expected to see the first Pantsyr-SM next year.

https://altyn73.livejournal.com/1413769.html

A new air defense brigade for the land forces is being set up in East MD, using new S-300V4 systems.

https://altyn73.livejournal.com/1414047.html

 

[Feanor]

Some more updates.

The first serial Su-57 is almost completed, the second being assembled. As a note, LRIP envisions 1 aircraft in 2019 and 1 in 2020, they will likely go to the GLITs in Akhtyubinsk. Next is a contract for 76 aircraft through 2027. If I had to take a guess I would say that 4 aircraft are going to the TsBP in Lipetsk and the rest are 72 aircraft for 3 regiments of 24.

Первый серийный истребитель Су-57

Meanwhile Su-35S deliveries continue, this time to the Russian Knights team.

Группа "Русские Витязи" получила четыре истребителя Су-35С

A Tu-22M3 has been spotted heading to the factory. It looks like it was pulled from storage. The Tu-22M3M program is about to begin, and it's possible they plan to increase total fleet size by pulling from storage.

Wall

An air defense regiment in Kaliningrad has been re-armed with Tor-M2 systems. Production of the type continues although at a relatively slow pace.

Зенитно-ракетный полк в Калининграде перевооружён на новейшие ЗРК «Тор-М2»

 

[ngatimozart]

Have they looked at restarting TU-160 Blackjack production or is that too expensive?

 

[Feanor]

Have they looked at restarting TU-160 Blackjack production or is that too expensive?

It's already being restarted. The Tu-214LMK is testing the avionics, and the first new Tu-160 is being assembled right now. PAK-DA development is proceeding slowly, and while it still appears that they plan on completing the project, the upgraded Tu-160 is likely to replace the aging Tu-95s well before the PAK-DA shows up to replace the older Tu-160s.

В Казань отправлены мотоотсеки ракетоносца Ту-160М2 | Авиация России
Первый серийный Ту-160М2 поступит в войска в 2021 году | Авиация России
Первый модернизированный Ту-160 соберут летом

 

[ngatimozart]

It's already being restarted. The Tu-214LMK is testing the avionics, and the first new Tu-160 is being assembled right now. PAK-DA development is proceeding slowly, and while it still appears that they plan on completing the project, the upgraded Tu-160 is likely to replace the aging Tu-95s well before the PAK-DA shows up to replace the older Tu-160s.

В Казань отправлены мотоотсеки ракетоносца Ту-160М2 | Авиация России
Первый серийный Ту-160М2 поступит в войска в 2021 году | Авиация России
Первый модернизированный Ту-160 соберут летом

Thanks Feanor, so I take it that they are intending to re-equip the Blackjack and Backfire regiments with new build variants. Do you know if they intend to increase the number of Blackjack and Backfire regiments at all? Even in today's environment, I would suggest that they would still be a major threat to any enemy maritime surface assets.

 

[Feanor]

Thanks Feanor, so I take it that they are intending to re-equip the Blackjack and Backfire regiments with new build variants. Do you know if they intend to increase the number of Blackjack and Backfire regiments at all? Even in today's environment, I would suggest that they would still be a major threat to any enemy maritime surface assets.

Tu-22M3s are not being built, just upgraded. And it looks like they will be pulling at least some airframes out of storage, increasing total fleet size (maybe, actually it's totally possible that currently serving Tu-22M3s will go into storage as airframes out of storage are upgraded). Tu-160M2s are going to be the backbone of the strategic aviation in the 2030s, if everything goes well, with PAK-DAs entering service slowly and in smaller numbers during that decade. Again this is assuming things are going relatively well (no 3rd world war, no imploding economy, no chokehold of international isolation). With that in mind, the Tu-160M and Tu-95MSM are going to remain in service for at least another decade, possibly longer, depending on the situation. The Tu-22M3s are in a more difficult situation. The idea of replacing them, one for one, with a new project died. Sukhoi had the T-60S proposal but it didn't take off.

Sukhoi T-60S - Wikipedia

In theory the Su-34 takes over the role but in practice that's obviously not happening. Instead it's likely that the Tu-22M3 fleet will be upgraded and will serve the rest of their service life as primarily a platform for a new lighter cruise missile (lighter then the X-101/102 that is) as well as for some guided bombs and lots (and lots) of unguided ones. Once all is said and done they will likely fade into history, with a smaller number of Tu-160M2s replacing some of their capabilities, and a Su-34M, or perhaps an Su-57 two-seat striker, replacing the rest.

As for threats to surface assets.... I would argue that with due concentration of force, the use of nuclear AShMs, and accurate intelligence (all are a bit of a stretch I know) but the combined might of Russian Long Range Aviation should still be capable of taking out damn near any single naval battle group including the USN. Not that this is a realistic scenario (again combined might here is ~50 Tu-95s, 15 Tu-160s, and ~60 Tu-22M3s). Between poor availability of the Liana system, the abysmal state of maritime patrol aircraft, and the mediocre readiness rates of the bombers themselves (they're not outright bad, but they seem to be unimpressive) it's a different story. However against opponents other than the US and maybe Japan, they are a huge asset. Look at the size of naval taskforces that the Brits and French have been able to put together. How many of those could effectively defend against a squadron-level strike of even Tu-22M3M armed with the now under development cruise missile? Not to mention second rate navies like the Turks. So yes, I think they're quite relevant. But I honestly suspect that in our hypothetical scenario above, they will be more relevant as conventional force projection for operations like the Syrian war.

EDIT: It appears that the Russian airforce is finally getting something comparable to Link 16/Link 22. While the system carries no public designation, it appears to be a standardized datalink across multiple types and generations of aircraft, and is even being retrofitted to existing aircraft. Now if only they can force interoperability across multiple branches of the military...

Wall

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Small aeroplanes, they dont get much attention, and also many projects are developing slowly.

For example, the Technoavia Rysachok, looks like a dying project to me, since 2015 the certification is on hold.
How about the Sukhoi Su-80? Thats a design with a lot of potential, specially because the An-38 is not in production anymore.

Are these projects not yet successful because there are still so many An-2, L-410 and An-24/26/32 left overs?


Now something bigger.
It seems that Russia is seriously working on the replacement of the An-124, the Il-106 (PAK-VTA), but of course we dont have to expect a flying prototype before 2030.

В ЦАГИ изготовлена аэродинамическая модель большегрузного транспортного самолета «Слон» - Новости - Пресс-центр - ЦАГИ
Russia Shows Wind Tunnel Model Of An "Elephant" Airlifter Replacement For The An-124

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

The good news is that the pilot survived and already been resqued by a Mi-8.
Russia’s 5th-gen Su-57 fighter jet crashes during factory trials, pilot ejects

So, this is the first crash, and second hull-loss incident after the fire from 2014?

 

[Silver Cat]

Looks like, PAK DA will be produced by Northrop Grumman Corporation :



@Silver Cat Provide the link to the source for this image please. Also, we have a requirement for more than one line of commentary in a post.

Ngatimozart

 

[Feanor]

The good news is that the pilot survived and already resqued by a Mi-8.
Russia’s 5th-gen Su-57 fighter jet crashes during factory trials, pilot ejects

So, this is the first crash, and second hull-loss incident after the fire from 2014?

Yeah, and it appears that this was the first serial aircraft, to be handed over shortly, quite likely before the end of the year. Rather unfortunate, and oddly coincidental with another similar crash, in an Su-30, by the same pilot, a few years back.

Крушение Су-57 и совпадения

Looks like, PAK DA will be produced by Northrop Grumman Corporation :

View attachment 46997

I wouldn't pay much attention to those pictures. The last information was that it would be subsonic and LO, so they're inspired by this, but are not terribly likely to be based on much more then that.

 

[StobieWan]

The good news is that the pilot survived and already been resqued by a Mi-8.
Russia’s 5th-gen Su-57 fighter jet crashes during factory trials, pilot ejects

So, this is the first crash, and second hull-loss incident after the fire from 2014?

Right now, they're running at a loss rate which is kind of reminiscent of early eighties jets -are they running on new engines yet ? I lost track of the program a bit back when they were trialling with the Saturns ?

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Right now, they're running at a loss rate which is kind of reminiscent of early eighties jets -are they running on new engines yet ? I lost track of the program a bit back when they were trialling with the Saturns ?

If im not wrong, all the prototypes and initial production batch are to be delivered with a highly upgraded Lyulka AL-31 variant, theAL-41F1 as an interim powerplant while an advanced clean-sheet design engine, the Saturn izdeliye 30, will come some years later after 2020.

 

[Feanor]

Right now, they're running at a loss rate which is kind of reminiscent of early eighties jets -are they running on new engines yet ? I lost track of the program a bit back when they were trialling with the Saturns ?

Iirc they lost 1 jet in trials, and now the first serial jet, so two out of iirc 10 (9 prototypes and 1 LRIP).

On the subject, by the way, the first Su-57E contract has been signed, for Algeria for 14 aircraft. The numbers are odd, since 14 would make sense for a VVS squadron (they usually have two training aircraft per regiment, and 12 is a squadron), while Algeria operates squadrons of 20. Along with the Su-57, they've bought the Su-35S and the Su-32 (Su-34). These are much needed contracts for all 3 jets, since all 3 lack export customers.

Алжир закупит российские истребители Су-57

 

[StobieWan]

Iirc they lost 1 jet in trials, and now the first serial jet, so two out of iirc 10 (9 prototypes and 1 LRIP).

On the subject, by the way, the first Su-57E contract has been signed, for Algeria for 14 aircraft. The numbers are odd, since 14 would make sense for a VVS squadron (they usually have two training aircraft per regiment, and 12 is a squadron), while Algeria operates squadrons of 20. Along with the Su-57, they've bought the Su-35S and the Su-32 (Su-34). These are much needed contracts for all 3 jets, since all 3 lack export customers.

Алжир закупит российские истребители Су-57

It's the amount of flying hours that concerns me - I don't think the fleet as a whole has a lot of hours (compared for instance to the F35 fleet as the other extreme of concurrency where there was already a fleet larger than some European air forces before even IOC)

I guess there's bad luck and small sample sizes at play as well,

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Iirc they lost 1 jet in trials, and now the first serial jet, so two out of iirc 10 (9 prototypes and 1 LRIP).

On the subject, by the way, the first Su-57E contract has been signed, for Algeria for 14 aircraft. The numbers are odd, since 14 would make sense for a VVS squadron (they usually have two training aircraft per regiment, and 12 is a squadron), while Algeria operates squadrons of 20. Along with the Su-57, they've bought the Su-35S and the Su-32 (Su-34). These are much needed contracts for all 3 jets, since all 3 lack export customers.

Алжир закупит российские истребители Су-57

I saw this news report a couple of days ago, but i did not dare to post it here, i doubted if it was true or not.
Algeria already ordered a couple of years ago the Su-32FN/Su-34, but after that nothing happen for a couple of years, and in March 2019, it was reported that Egypt would procure "over two dozen" Su-35 aircraft from Russia in a deal valued about $US 2 billion. However, Rosoboronexport denied any contract regarding to the supply of Su-35 fighters to Egypt has been signed.
And the Su-57....its still in final stages of development.
Im actually surprised that China has not yet ordered a small amount of Su-57, so they can reverse engineer, copy and steal everything for their J-20 and FC-31 projects.


Btw, wasn't it that T-50-5, the fifth flyable prototype, was heavily damaged by fire in June 2014, but then repaired and renamed to T-50-5R, and flying again?
And i thought there were 10 flying prototypes.

 

[Feanor]

I saw this news report a couple of days ago, but i did not dare to post it here, i doubted if it was true or not.
Algeria already ordered a couple of years ago the Su-32FN/Su-34, but after that nothing happen for a couple of years, and in March 2019, it was reported that Egypt would procure "over two dozen" Su-35 aircraft from Russia in a deal valued about $US 2 billion. However, Rosoboronexport denied any contract regarding to the supply of Su-35 fighters to Egypt has been signed.
And the Su-57....its still in final stages of development.
Im actually surprised that China has not yet ordered a small amount of Su-57, so they can reverse engineer, copy and steal everything for their J-20 and FC-31 projects.

Consider the Su-35S sale to China, and how Russia and China went back and forth for several years over the quantities to be sold. I suspect Russia wouldn't sell a small amount to China, certainly not this early.

Btw, wasn't it that T-50-5, the fifth flyable prototype, was heavily damaged by fire in June 2014, but then repaired and renamed to T-50-5R, and flying again?
And i thought there were 10 flying prototypes.

Yes it was, and I was under the impression that there were 10 prototypes total, including 1 being used for stress testing on the ground.

 

[StobieWan]

I get the impression that the Russians have gone very sour on selling small quantities of tech to the Chinese - as you say, the SU-35 sales weren't a glowing experience. I'm kind of imagining a conversation like:
China "Hey, Russia, we'd like to order some SU-57 please? How many ? Uh, just a couple. Like, well, like a breeding pair, y'know ? And if you can throw in all the tools you'd need to tear them dow..uh..maintain, yeah, maintain them?"
Russia "...."

We'll see if any export orders for the SU-57 turn up but I'm of the opinion that any customers will wait until the product is at least IOC and with a few years of service before showing serious interest. Russian aftersales parts and engine overhaul policies seem to translate into low availability and high cost as hidden factors - they need to work on the aftersales side to make serious inroads on export markets in future I'd say.

 

[Feanor]

Some updates.

A new air defense regiment has been deployed in the Arctic near Tiksi, using S-300PS systems, taken from a unit re-arming with the S-400. It appears that while most of the withdrawing S-300s are going into storage or being "donated" to foreign partners (hello there Kazakstan, Syria, etc.) some are being used to build out additional air defense units.

Новый зенитный ракетный полк в Тикси и продолжение перевооружения Войск ПВО

The first new Mi-38T medium helicopters has been handed over to the MoD. It's unclear what makes it such a huge improvement that it warrants moving away from the tried and true Mi-8.

Первый вертолет Ми-38Т передан Министерству обороны России

The first S-350 btln has been handed over. There was information earlier that they might be deployed in S-400 regiments, one btln to a regiment, to form a layercake of Pantsyr, S-350, and S-400 systems. This is a change to see how it will work in practice.

Gur Khan attacks!: Минобороны получило первый комплект новейшего ЗРК С-350 "Витязь"

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Some updates.

A new air defense regiment has been deployed in the Arctic near Tiksi, using S-300PS systems, taken from a unit re-arming with the S-400. It appears that while most of the withdrawing S-300s are going into storage or being "donated" to foreign partners (hello there Kazakstan, Syria, etc.) some are being used to build out additional air defense units.

Новый зенитный ракетный полк в Тикси и продолжение перевооружения Войск ПВО

The first new Mi-38T medium helicopters has been handed over to the MoD. It's unclear what makes it such a huge improvement that it warrants moving away from the tried and true Mi-8.

Первый вертолет Ми-38Т передан Министерству обороны России

The first S-350 btln has been handed over. There was information earlier that they might be deployed in S-400 regiments, one btln to a regiment, to form a layercake of Pantsyr, S-350, and S-400 systems. This is a change to see how it will work in practice.

Gur Khan attacks!: Минобороны получило первый комплект новейшего ЗРК С-350 "Витязь"

If i compare the data available at Wikipedia, than...
- The Mi-38 can handle more 1000 kg payload and some more passengers.
- Much further range.
- Ceiling increased with 500 meters.
- More aerodynamic and looks more up-to-date.

But of course it is also much more expensive.

And as you said the Mi-17 is a proven design, with more than 12.000 sold to 60 countries, so getting spare parts and trained personnel shouldn't be that hard.

 

[Feanor]

If i compare the data available at Wikipedia, than...
- The Mi-38 can handle more 1000 kg payload and some more passengers.
- Much further range.
- Ceiling increased with 500 meters.
- More aerodynamic and looks more up-to-date.

But of course it is also much more expensive.

And as you said the Mi-17 is a proven design, with more than 12.000 sold to 60 countries, so getting spare parts and trained personnel shouldn't be that hard.

Well that's just it. For a medium helo the Mi-8 family is already fairly large, and fairly heavy. Now they want a bigger and heavier replacement? The Mi-8 family is at least cheap, due to high production volume and easy availability of spares. What are the chances that the Mi-38 will get the same market share? In my opinion, 0. Look at the Mi-24/35 and Mi-28, even though the Mi-28 is out, the Mi-24/35 is still in production and still sells well. The Mi-28 on the other hand has had barely any export orders (literally two customers with ~40 helos each).

EDIT: The VVS bought buckets of Mi-8 variants over the past decade. So much of the Soviet Mi-8MT fleet has been replaced and even specialized EW variants are getting replaced with upgraded versions. So even if they forge ahead with complete replacement of all remaining Soviet-era Mi-8s, will it be enough? I doubt it. And the Mi-8 family isn't even done yet. The Mi-171A2 is going into production now, with upgrades and development of further Mi-8 variants continuing.

EDIT2: The second Mi-38T has been handed over to the VVS.

Министерству обороны России поставлен второй вертолет Ми-38Т