Russia - General Discussion.

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
The point was that it wasn’t Russians who wrote the book on warfare and wiping out the enemy’s energy grid, in particular. In numerous previous posts, you referred to the strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure as terrorist attacks, while in reality this has been done practically in every war in the past, likely close to, 100 years. Given, of course, at least one side of the conflict was capable of doing so. In other words, this is a very common and desired practice. In case of Ukraine, which is a huge country and had (perhaps poorly or, rather, not well developed but) an established military industrial complex, these strikes are especially warranted and often preferred to the destruction of assembly and repair facilities, for example.

The particular WP article was presented and quoted in order to show that there was expressed intent for the purpose of the strikes to cause human suffering to the civilian population of Serbia in order to induce some political rumbling within the country in hopes for a regime change, which was not likely going to work. Furthermore, the knowledge that this strategy does not deliver the desired results, in regards to the public dissatisfaction with the parties in charge of their state at the time, but instead increases the hostile moods towards the attacking side, is not new and has been around for decades (I will refrain from citing academic evidence for this because this goes beyond the scope of this thread). Yet, in the example of Serbia, it was done and set yet another precedent for this being a sound and normal strategy in major war efforts; moreover, the intent was to cause human misery without delivering a substantial military advantage.

I see these claims of “I fully support investigations of all war crimes” and similar… I don’t want to say not genuine because you and many others likely really believe that they fully support doing so, but definitely one-sided, righteous, and a little too late also comes to mind and I have not seen this amount of support during the previous western campaigns and definitely haven’t seen any international tribunals set up to investigate the “white knights” and certainly no one is rotting in jail for any of the atrocities committed by the said parties.

Furthermore, there is a great (even though malicious) reason, like I mentioned in the other post, for the military circles in the United States to be strongly pushing against the release of “evidence” of war crimes committed by Russia in the past 13 months.


“Russia wanted to integrate Ukraine into the Russian Empire” and the expense of rebuilding the energy infrastructure are not very (or at all) convincing. Long before these strikes began in October, the entire cities were largely destroyed. In particular, cities that were and are planned (by the Russian state) to be an integral part of “the Russian Empire”.


I am not going to comment on the “Swedish volunteer” suggestions, for obvious reasons.

These biased reports do not necessarily depict of the actual situation. That includes the recent report by the HR Council cited above.

Capt. Ironpants did a great job outlining some of the issues and clear bias. They seem to know quite a bit about the organizational structure and requirements for such reports, definitely way more than I do. However, I have read almost every report produced by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine since the start of hostilities in 2014 and can state that I see a clear difference between every one of those and the ones cited above. For instance, the HR council report highlights that

The Commission has documented a small number of violations committed by Ukrainian armed forces, including likely indiscriminate attacks and two incidents that qualify as war crimes.

This is clearly laughable. And I already outlined what the statement about the energy grid attacks looks like.

The reports you sighted mention all these bombings of hospitals, attacks on healthcare workers, ambulances, health care facilities, etc. Note that all this attacks and shelling were done by the Russian military forces. In general, this war is portrayed, since the beginning, so that only one side, the Russian side, is levelling the cities, only Russian rockets fall on civilian infrastructure killing civilians (except for the most obvious ones: A U.S.-Made Missile Went Astray in Ukraine, Injuring Civilians), violating basic human rights, torture, etc. The Ukrainian authorities provide evidence and stories. Any attempt to counter or suggest otherwise is met with great hostility from the Ukrainian government and outright rejected as Russian propaganda and narrative. The recorded facts about their troops setting up command posts and firing positions in or next to schools, hospitals, residential buildings, other civilian infrastructure (all being war crimes) are all dismissed as untruth and the reporting parties attacked and presented as Russian supporters/agents.

For example, you probably remember this report by Amnesty international: Ukraine: Ukrainian fighting tactics endanger civilians And the unprecedented apology they had issued after the outrage and backlash from the Ukrainian authorities: Statement on publication of press release on Ukrainian fighting tactics The head of the Amnesty International office resigned as a part of the outrage: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/07/amnesty-international-ukraine-pokalchuk-resignation/ This is all unprecedented and unheard of.

You clearly have not read any of the couple of dozens reports presented by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights since 2014. I’d imagine if you did, I’d be able to find similar posts by you before 2022. For your convenience, here are a few excerpts from one random such a report that Google fed me first:

The practice of placing military objectives near civilian objects and facilities necessary for the survival of the civilian population continued on both sides of the contact line, increasing the risk of shelling of such objects and facilities. Hospitals and schools were affected by shelling, as well as other types of infrastructure[…]

OHCHR documented cases of summary executions, enforced disappearances, incommunicado detention, arbitrary deprivation of liberty, torture/ill-treatment and conflict- related sexual violence,5 most of which occurred before but could only be documented during the reporting period […]

OHCHR was nevertheless able to document, on both sides of the contact line, the persisting practice of torture, ill-treatment and sexual violence involving conflict-related detainees, often to extract confessions. OHCHR also documented a new development linked to the arrest and detention of citizens by law enforcement under terrorism charges for conducting business and paying ‘taxes’ in territory controlled by armed groups.

The persistent lack of accountability for human rights violations and abuses contributed to the prevailing sense and state of impunity. For instance, little progress was achieved in bringing to justice those responsible for the killings of protesters at Maidan in 2014 and for the 2 May 2014 violence in Odesa.

Ukrainian authorities continued to fail to effectively investigate human rights violations perpetrated by members of the Ukrainian military or security forces. In cases against members of armed groups, however, prosecutions have begun to address specific human rights violations (such as unlawful detention, torture and ill-treatment) rather than relying on more general charges of terrorism[…]


Kind of amazing that these atrocities have basically stopped instead of increasing on the Ukrainian side, in spite of hundreds (thousands?) of “Russian infiltrators” civilians being executed left and right in the first couple of months of the war and other crimes reported by other organizations as well, but also including the UNHCHR as well.
I can tell you one of the likely reasons for the changes in AI (and likely other) reports. Their personnel have to operate mostly within the host country and dependent upon its authorities, visas and permission to operate in-country. Report something that reflects badly on the host country and you might well be swiftly declared PNG and must leave in all haste. It can also be very dangerous. As in bombs under your bedroom window or worse. Seen that in more than in one country.. It may be be proper reports will come out once it is all over and there is no longer need to protect staff so they can continue to work, but we must wait for that. Or maybe not. It all depends.

AI can be uneven (same for some other human rights NGOs). It mostly depends on the country. In some countries where you would never expect it, they can be very, very reliable in their reports and their staff amazingly courageous. In other countries, well. I am not in any way dissing any human rights or humanitarian staff. You cannot help anyone from prison or the grave.

There can be other reasons, but I won't go into them here. It appears to me for a number of reasons that the AI staff are good and honest in this case,, but ran into ... er, problems. I will give them them the benefit of the doubt for sure, and exercise patience. It's really is all one can do under the circumstances.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Israel-Poland diplomatic crisis is over, both will mend ties and Poland will reinstate its ambassador to Israel.

This could either mean a lot, or it could mean absolutely nothing. In recent years, Israel lost on quite a lot of Poland's modernization and armament drive due to the sore ties.

Israel plays a key role in the the western supply of armament to Ukraine by backfilling for any European sent kit.

Some may speculate that the classified sections of the deal may include Israeli approval of re-sale of Polish kit to Ukraine, for example the Spike, but I believe it's still unlikely at this stage. However, in the last few months, the Israeli MoD has, reportedly, quietly granted several export licenses to Ukraine.

Regardless, Israel's contribution to Poland's modernization is yet another blow to Russia's attempts to create a new deterrence balance vs Europe.
‘Crisis over’: Israeli, Polish FMs sign deal to mend ties, return envoy to Tel Aviv
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So Russia is deploying tactical nukes to Belorus. Facilities are under construction now and it seems these will be Iskander munitions, meaning both Russia and Belorussian units could theoretically use them. I don't think I need to post link, this is headline news internationally, but let me know if you want (Russian) sources. Obviously this is a major step, but considering the potentially unstable position of Lukashenko, and the very real chance of a NATO country intervening in Ukraine or even in Belarus (should Lukashenko die unexpectedly or "win" his next election with sufficiently little public support).
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

seaspear

Well-Known Member
President Lukashenko in the past has made contradictory statements on Belrus joining Russia referring to its sovereignty so would be interesting if there was a referendum ,with the question of the "returning " of nuclear weapons to Belrus, they are not to be under control of Belrus
Nuclear Disarmament Belarus (nti.org)
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


Russia seems really complete to switch their Hydrocarbon market from Euro zone to Asia. Alltough the direct takers mostly India and China, however the other Asian market seems also source indirectly from India and China.

Some can argue Russia selling cheap thus reducing their revenue margin. On the other hand, they are cornering the market in Asia, and got replacement market despites all western sanctions.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
Although India and China are getting crude oil cheap they then can refine and sell the refined products of such in competition to Russia whose own refineries are slowing in production ,the real profits are in the refined product , much of the selling price of crude goes towards shipping cost ,Russia may not have a choice in selling oil at any price because to shut down production places the wells at risk of difficulties of restarting
 
Russia seems really complete to switch their Hydrocarbon market from Euro zone to Asia. Alltough the direct takers mostly India and China, however the other Asian market seems also source indirectly from India and China.

Some can argue Russia selling cheap thus reducing their revenue margin. On the other hand, they are cornering the market in Asia, and got replacement market despites all western sanctions.
It looks like things are going the way many of us predicted, the Russians have not only switched to expected new markets but also found unexpected ones in the Middle East. If things progress this way I don't think there is going to be a too big reduction in export quantities. Currently the price cap is irrelevant as oil prices have been going down due to fears of recession and sluggish economic data.

In the meantime European economies are doing poorly, especially more industrialized nations such as Germany, which are affected more by energy price volatility. The US is not helping matters much with the prices of LNG being high as it is and big subsidizes to US based companies which are enticing many European companies to relocate there.

The problem I have is that all of it was predictable, and many people (including myself) said it would happen this way. even during heights of the cold war Europe was importing energy from the Soviets not because they liked them but because they understood it was necessary for their continued development. I would have some unsavory words for people who are sleepwalking the entire continent to bankruptcy, it's like they didn't think doubling energy bills (so far, could be more) to both industries and households would be a big deal and lead to insolvencies and rampant inflation which was already a big problem due to supply shortages and large quantities of newly printed money pumped in to the economy.

This is the main reason I expected negotiations about ending the war to begin much earlier and sanctions and trade restrictions lifted, as continuing on a current course would have consequences for the long term.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
problem I have is that all of it was predictable, and many people (including myself) said it would happen this way.
I already put market analyst link back in this thread during first break of this war. Effort from West to "blockade" Russian hydrocarbon from global market will not going to happen. It's simply because Hydrocarbon is in finate supply, while global demand still there. When politics try to hindered market access, market will always react to counter that, and finding their own adjustment.

Like I said in my post, some will argue that Western sanctions has manage to push Russia to sell their oil cheaper then average market. However it is still for Russian give them enough margin, as they still manage to sell considerably above their costs. While they still manage to sell most of their oil production. Remember collective West political leadership call in media, their aim is to 'criple' Russian oil income. That's so far has not happening.

Russia sell cheaper to East, while West has to find relatively more expensive hydrocarbon then what the East gain from Russia. As I already put before, this war going to cost Russia and the West on energy market, while East will gain relative advantage on same energy market.

Ironically the one in the East that going to take most advantages, is also the one that collective West especially US try much to deter. China so far still come as one of winner on this energy market turmoil.
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
It looks like things are going the way many of us predicted, the Russians have not only switched to expected new markets but also found unexpected ones in the Middle East. If things progress this way I don't think there is going to be a too big reduction in export quantities. Currently the price cap is irrelevant as oil prices have been going down due to fears of recession and sluggish economic data.

In the meantime European economies are doing poorly, especially more industrialized nations such as Germany, which are affected more by energy price volatility. The US is not helping matters much with the prices of LNG being high as it is and big subsidizes to US based companies which are enticing many European companies to relocate there.

The problem I have is that all of it was predictable, and many people (including myself) said it would happen this way. even during heights of the cold war Europe was importing energy from the Soviets not because they liked them but because they understood it was necessary for their continued development. I would have some unsavory words for people who are sleepwalking the entire continent to bankruptcy, it's like they didn't think doubling energy bills (so far, could be more) to both industries and households would be a big deal and lead to insolvencies and rampant inflation which was already a big problem due to supply shortages and large quantities of newly printed money pumped in to the economy.

This is the main reason I expected negotiations about ending the war to begin much earlier and sanctions and trade restrictions lifted, as continuing on a current course would have consequences for the long term.
But Europe/the west in general is not continuing on the current course, this is driving western nations to speed up conversion to alternatives.
Climate change policies isn't all about climate change.. its a polite way to get the west of the hook of dependence on dubious regimes for energy supplies, so this war speeds up a long term fiscal threat to those dubious regimes with Black Gold, Texas Tea etc, not the west.
 
Russia sell cheaper to East, while West has to find relatively more expensive hydrocarbon then what the East gain from Russia. As I already put before, this war going to cost Russia and the West on energy market, while East will gain relative advantage on same energy market.

Ironically the one in the East that going to take most advantages, is also the one that collective West especially US try much to deter. China so far still come as one of winner on this energy market turmoil.
Indeed China (the whole Indochina region) are going to be big winners in relations to this war, and that's regardless of the outcome, with the US in close second place (how close depends on who wins the war in the end). Whether Russia wins or loses it's still going to rely on China for much of resources it needs (both monetary and in terms of goods and services) which would allow the Chinese to strike good deals for Russian energy and various types of other raw materials as well as agricultural products. Similarly whether West wins or loses it's going to be exhausted in terms of its capability to provide military equipment to potential Chinese enemies while its economic growth (especially in Europe) is going to be stifled for some time by various factors such as high energy and food prices.

If the Urals barrel price has been selling for under fifty dollars a barrel well below the CAP price to India and China etc. wont this affect oil prices elsewhere from other sources?
Logically it should however Russian oil is not sold freely on Western markets, so it doesn't act as a counterweight to higher prices from elsewhere. One more reason is that the Russians are selling oil for much higher prices then reported sometimes the difference being up to 25$ a barrel.

But Europe/the west in general is not continuing on the current course, this is driving western nations to speed up conversion to alternatives.
Climate change policies isn't all about climate change.. its a polite way to get the west of the hook of dependence on dubious regimes for energy supplies, so this war speeds up a long term fiscal threat to those dubious regimes with Black Gold, Texas Tea etc, not the west.
That's all good and well if Europe was actually doing it however in reality Europe is restarting it's coal plants in what they described as short term necessity (I have serious doubts about how short is going to be if the war continues). If we are talking about alternative providers of energy then switching from Russian regime to that of Middle Eastern countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia doesn't improve the "dubious regime" department, if on the other hand we are talking about alternate sources such as green energy the technology is simply not there maybe in 20 years or something like that. Only energy source that could have replaced fossil fuels was nuclear energy but we collectively gave up on that idea some 30-40 years ago, how difficult would it be to replace fossil fuels in Europe with green energy is shown by the fact that only 17% of EUs energy comes from green sources.
 
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