Russia - General Discussion.

[Ananda]

Russia Trains with China, Mulls Ditching U.S. Dollars Over Sanctions Threat

The Chinese Defense Ministry said joint drills "further enriched the connotation of the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia in the new era."

www.newsweek.com

All the talk of Putin make Ukraine getting more and more toward Western camp due to present situation. Has to shown that West also push Russian and China getting closer. The Western think tank can put doubt on thee level of alliance between China and Russia, but both of them don't have any other choices except each other at this moment.

 

[Steinmetz]

Russia Trains with China, Mulls Ditching U.S. Dollars Over Sanctions Threat

The Chinese Defense Ministry said joint drills "further enriched the connotation of the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia in the new era."

www.newsweek.com

All the talk of Putin make Ukraine getting more and more toward Western camp due to present situation. Has to shown that West also push Russian and China getting closer. The Western think tank can put doubt on thee level of alliance between China and Russia, but both of them don't have any other choices except each other at this moment.

I'll be curious to see if there will be anymore joint ventures and agreements announced during Putin's visit at the upcoming Olympics. I also don't see any hostilities stopping Putin from attending the Olympics.

 

[Ananda]

This French comentator in my opinion talk more realistically on how far Western economics sactions will bite Russia. So far the current sanctions only revive Russia own domestic consumptive products Industry. As Financial people I agree with his assesment there are ways for Russia to be still in International trade payment ecosystem, even SWIFT being cut out from them. It will cost them (just like it cost Iran), but there's ways to circumstate SWIFT ecosystem (thus USD dominated financial market system).

U.S. reportedly eyes clever new tool to discourage Russia from invading Ukraine

The Biden administration is reportedly considering sanctions that would strike at the heart of Russia's technology sector, hurting the production of phones, weapons and more.

www.msnbc.com

Russia main foreign trade income coming from Oil and Gas (Energy), mineral commodities, and Defense Equipment. The last one that need access toward international semiconductors market. We know US have big leverage on that considering the biggest producers are their Asian allies (Taiwan and ROK), also because US companies still control considerable R&D and patents for latest semicunductors.

However China also understand this, thus they are now trying the hardest to be more self reliance on semiconductors. Also China hold largest supply on rare earth materials (which Russia also hold large reserve on that). Thus in long run both China and Russia can help each other on that.

All of this can push for two competing economics blocks in Global economy, and I can tell you many outside West actually find the idea is tolarable. This back to the question, if Russia can live without economic incentives from West, what kind of leverage thus West going to have against Russia ?

In the end, West and Russia have to answer, how much Ukraine really worth. I still see Russia if they can not regain their leverage with overall Ukraine, perhaps Eastern Ukraine control by friendlier to Russia politicians will be enough. After all Eastern Ukraine with their black sea coast and Industrial center are probably more worthed for Russia then Western and Central Ukraine. Perhaps they will call it Republic of UkroRuss.

West already open the Pandora box by allowing carving ex Yugoslavia by enthic lines. Moscow seems to think, I'll do the same in Ukraine.

 

[Atunga]

This French comentator in my opinion talk more realistically on how far Western economics sactions will bite Russia. So far the current sanctions only revive Russia own domestic consumptive products Industry. As Financial people I agree with his assesment there are ways for Russia to be still in International trade payment ecosystem, even SWIFT being cut out from them. It will cost them (just like it cost Iran), but there's ways to circumstate SWIFT ecosystem (thus USD dominated financial market system).

U.S. reportedly eyes clever new tool to discourage Russia from invading Ukraine

The Biden administration is reportedly considering sanctions that would strike at the heart of Russia's technology sector, hurting the production of phones, weapons and more.

www.msnbc.com

Russia main foreign trade income coming from Oil and Gas (Energy), mineral commodities, and Defense Equipment. The last one that need access toward international semiconductors market. We know US have big leverage on that considering the biggest producers are their Asian allies (Taiwan and ROK), also because US companies still control considerable R&D and patents for latest semicunductors.

However China also understand this, thus they are now trying the hardest to be more self reliance on semiconductors. Also China hold largest supply on rare earth materials (which Russia also hold large reserve on that). Thus in long run both China and Russia can help each other on that.

All of this can push for two competing economics blocks in Global economy, and I can tell you many outside West actually find the idea is tolarable. This back to the question, if Russia can live without economic incentives from West, what kind of leverage thus West going to have against Russia ?

In the end, West and Russia have to answer, how much Ukraine really worth. I still see Russia if they can not regain their leverage with overall Ukraine, perhaps Eastern Ukraine control by friendlier to Russia politicians will be enough. After all Eastern Ukraine with their black sea coast and Industrial center are probably more worthed for Russia then Western and Central Ukraine. Perhaps they will call it Republic of UkroRuss.

West already open the Pandora box by allowing carving ex Yugoslavia by enthic lines. Moscow seems to think, I'll do the same in Ukraine.

China tells US to stay calm over Ukraine, and 'stop playing with fire' in Taiwan

China's top diplomat also warned Washington to 'stop interfering' in the Winter Olympics

www.telegraph.co.uk

China openly back Russia on the Ukraine issue, clearly telling the US it is against NATO expansion. It will be interesting to see how China and Russia can work to over come the semi-conductor issue and how they can collaborate to mitigate the heavy sanctions Russia has been threatened with. In my opinion if Russia is cut off SWIFT, it will enable the Chinese payment alternative become popular, that wouldn't be good for SWIFT and Trust in the system

 

[STURM]

Unsurprising that China would be in agreement with Russia over various issues. Like Russia, China too has certain issues with the West and opposes what it sees as Western hegemony and attempts to sideline it as a major power. Way back in 1999 at the height of the Kosovo war both countries announced a partnership to oppose Western hegemony and attempts to mould the world in its own image.

There is a limit to Russia/China cooperation however as both countries still have lingering distrust as well as certain other issues.

Ukraine: To war or not to war?

Both Russia and the US already gained all that they can from the Ukraine crisis, so why persist on the path to war?

www.aljazeera.com

''Putin is finally being taken seriously in the West with regard to his opposition to NATO’s expansion into the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Georgia.''

''In light of this dangerous military standoff, there is little or no doubt about Russia’s determination to do what it takes to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Or, about its willingness and capacity to project force in all the areas of the former Soviet Union and beyond. Its intervention on the side of the government during recent disturbances in Kazakhstan is a case in point.''

''But even victory could come with a hefty price of its own, weakening Russia and forcing it into a junior partnership with China in Asia. Not long ago, the United Kingdom won the second world war, but lost its empire and became a junior partner of the US.

China has already called for calm, making it clear that it opposes NATO’s expansion to the Russian border. But Beijing also has a vested interest in Moscow’s success against Washington in Ukraine, as it would pave the way for its own success against the US in Taiwan and the rest of Asia.''

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Also talking that Ukraine already transitioning to democracy after Euro Maiden, basically is (sorry mods for the term) still BS. If we are honest, that's not much different between Ukraine and Russia politics at this moment. Both still controls by oligarchs, is just the one in Ukraine is Pro West and the Russian ones incressingly anti US. So expecting Ukraine to be more democratic just because they are in closer trends to West, is still similar expecting Saudis and the Gulf kingdoms on democratics path, just because they are still pro west. Will Ukraine present Oligarchs open for "democratic" concession in the East with Pro Russian populations ? I didn't see that. Those Right Wing Ukrainian Nationalists Oligarchs does not want to give room for Pro Russian ethnics in the East. Similar thing is also happen in Russia. Ethnic politics is matter in both of them, and not democracy.

Ukraine is not equivalent to Saudi Arabia. It is a fairly modern nation with a fairly modern culture. As I explained with the Russian people, the Ukrainians are also ready for democracy. The generations that may have preferred the strongman approach to politics are now the old and less influential people.

Transition from anything to tyranny is fairly easy as long as the new government can quell protests. Transition to democracy isn't, as it relies not only on the people's readiness but other processes like laying the legal foundations of democracy and acting on them, and cleaning house from those who may undermine a democracy and the cultural aspects and values that typically accompany it (liberalism, pluralism etc).
So these take time, but alone are not a reason to reject democracy as outlandish.

Aligning with the west can actually help Ukraine accelerate democratization efforts. The government will be more pressured to act where needed, the people will feel more connected with the free world, and oligarchs will be shaken by increased economical relations with the west. Some will fade, some will get even richer, but eventually the situation will normalize around a western average.

 

[Ananda]

not equivalent to Saudi Arabia. It is a fairly modern nation with a fairly modern culture. As I explained with the Russian people, the Ukrainians are also ready for democracy. The generations that may have preferred the strongman approach to politics are now the old and less influential people

That's bias perception on Arabs, and too optimistic on Ukrainian. Again I'm not talking on the people it self, I'm talking more on their Political trends. How you say they are (Ukrainian) are already sophisticated when they are still fighting on ethics line. This's on the people (Ukraine and Russian) that basically has shares many ethnic traits.

I also have talk with some Russian that coming from Eastern part, and their pictures of Nationalist Ukrainian Maidan movement toward Russian Ethnic is different then Ukrainian regime propaganda.

What's is Modern Nation ? In the average level of education the Saudis is even higher then Ukrainian. Their HDI (including education level) is 34 vs 88 of Ukrainian. How your justification that Ukrainian people is more modern then Saudis ?

Both their government basically still oligarchy regime based. The difference is Saudis are Royal Oligarchy. There's no indication that what Ukraine has right now is not Oligarchy, just like what Russia has now.

I'm not going to go Politics on this, as it is against this forum. However as non Arab I'm offended on your perception that Ukraine are more Modern then Saudis. From what angle you put that ? Is it because Saudis is Arab and Ukraine White European ?

In every perspective Saudi's society is more modern then Ukrainian one. They more integrated with Western influence then Ukrainian ever been. However it's not barometer saying they're going to be more democratic society faster or slower then Ukrainian. Both are long way from there yet, and saying Ukraine integration with West will fasten that, it's really not a barometer.

What is democracy ? Is Poland already democracy society when anti imigran and right wing nationalistic drive now dominated Poland ? That's just an example on what's the level on calculating democracy mentality in one society.

 

[STURM]

Ukraine is not equivalent to Saudi Arabia. It is a fairly modern nation with a fairly modern culture.

I find this statement a bit off. A direct comparison between both countries is not possible given the varying factors but as much as I've been very critical of Saudi Arabia over various policies it carries out; I have to say that in many ways it's ahead of the Ukraine; at present...

Saudi Arabia may not be a liberal democracy but it has achieved a high state of development and it has a highly educated population. The Ukraine has the advantage in that it is located east of several democratic NATO/EU countries but it has various longstanding issues. Saudi Arabia in contrast in located in a region where elected governments are a rarity and where there is hardly any experience of actual democracy but thanks to oil money and they ability to carry out various reforms and modenisation efforts; plus decades of Western influence/ties; Saudi [and its neighbours] have reached a high state of development [in many ways comparable to the West which you're so fond of quoting]. The Arabs by large also have the advantage or rather the fortune of not having been under communism for decades; unlike various Eastern European countries; including of course the Ukraine.

Transition from anything to tyranny is fairly easy as long as the new government can quell protests.

Depends on what existed before the ''tyranny''.... If the government prior to that was not undemocratic or was not a tyrannical regime; making the transition to a tyranny involves a lot more than merely ability to ''quell protests''. A whole new system has to be put and cemented in place.

 

[STURM]

An interesting take on current events. Makes one wonder what's really going on? How accurate are Western claims on the invasion? Have the Russian really made up their mind or is it just sabre rattling on a major scale?

Ukraine faces enormous military odds against Russia

But Russia – and many experts – insist an armed invasion is not the intention.

www.aljazeera.com

''Puri believes politics may be a fourth Russian advantage.''

“Ukrainian politics is quite a fractious sport because it’s undergoing a period of protracted reform from an oligarchical system. Russia is ruled under the iron grip of the regime and there wouldn’t be any vacillation on the Russian side,” he said, calling any Russian-Ukrainian war “an unfair fight”.

“There are people with very different memories of the USSR and very different understandings of what Ukraine should be in the future,” added Puri, who spent a year in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region in 2014-15.

''The IISS’s Nigel Gould-Davies argued in the Moscow Times that Russia’s “immediate concern is not the 25-year history of NATO enlargement, but its own currently declining influence over Ukraine – whose Western ties are growing deeper, resistance to local pro-Russian figures like Viktor Medvedchuk sterner, and national identity stronger”.

“The fact is, the whole invasion threat could be a bluff,” Puri said.

“In that case, you can imagine in a couple of months, when the weather changes and a tank invasion is a lot less likely because it becomes a lot more boggy as the ice melts, the Russians would be laughing to themselves that London and Washington got themselves into such a fevered state over this, and Germany may be thinking, ‘we made the right decisions and re-engaged with Russia on a dialogue basis’.”

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Are you guys really trying to convince me a society that executes homosexuals is more progressive than a society that restricts some rights at best?

My whole extended family is in Ukraine. They are ethnic Russians living in Kiev (mostly). And I live in Israel - a liberal democracy. A Ukrainian moving to Israel can assimilate rather easily. A Saudi Arabian very much not, unless he's a minority, monarchy-hating progressive.

The fighting's not on ethnic lines. Pretty much every Russian and Ukrainian (and other) that migrated from there (by the way, plenty of such migrants in Israel without even being Jewish, due to a large Russian-speaking population), has done so because it's objectively bad to live in the region. Being either in Russia or in a state controlled by it, leaves plenty to desire. I've been there.
Those you see fighting on ethnic lines are a small minority that speaks far louder than its actual size/influence. Heck, I think the neo-nazis are even allowed on the frontlines because their ideology makes them a rare kind of willing cannon fodder.

The majority are seeking an economical solution and such would come from western Europe, not Russia, if it came to picking one. The whole thing about Russians and Ukrainians always being at each others throats is honestly just made up propaganda that spread to serve some interests since 2014. I think my last visit to Ukraine was in 2012. Not a single person I met there replied to me in Ukrainian. I did not hide my identity as an Israeli and ethnic Russian. And really none gave a shit.

Depends on what existed before the ''tyranny''.... If the government prior to that was not undemocratic or was not a tyrannical regime; making the transition to a tyranny involves a lot more than merely ability to ''quell protests''. A whole new system has to be put and cemented in place

A tyranny can be set up overnight. All examples I can think of in a 10 seconds time span are ones that came to be from swift revolutions. All that's needed is to secure loyalists to put in key positions. Planning beforehand is required, but when it starts, it can be very quick.

To set up a democracy, a lot has to be done AFTER it's officially set up. It requires the government to apply sweeping anti-corruption motions, pass the equivalent of a constitution, pass reforms in education to prepare the young generations, and reorganize many government institutions to become more independent of the government, and more. The nature of democracy is slow actions but high stability to balance it. It needs to be built over many years, and is part of the reason why the campaigns in the middle east took so long when goals turned from removing dictators to nation-building.

 

[STURM]

A Ukrainian moving to Israel can assimilate rather easily. A Saudi Arabian very much not, unless he's a minority, monarchy-hating progressive.

Great for Israel and great for any Ukranian [whether a Jew or a Goy] deciding to move there but Is that actually an accurate gauge to determine whether the Ukraine is more modern or has reach a more advanced state of enlightenment compared to Saudi or vice versa?

As I said; Saudi has the advantage or fortune of never being under communism; it has had decades of interaction with the West and its oil money enabled it to modernise and steadily improve the living conditions of its population; who have access to a good health and education system. I'm not saying everything is a bed of roses in Saudi; I'm personally very critical of Saudi policy in Afghanistan, Yemen and other places. I'm pointing out however that in many ways; despite never having an elected government and still maintaining strict Wahabbist Islamic laws; Saudi in various ways has progressed.

Are you guys really trying to convince me a society that executes homosexuals is more progressive than a society that restricts some rights at best?

I can't speak for Ananda but if you care to examine again what I wrote; Saudi in various ways is more advanced or modern than the Ukraine.

A tyranny can be set up overnight

But to enable it to survive enables a lot more than merely quelling protests... Doing something overnight and actually having it survive are 2 very profoundly diffrent things.....

All that's needed is to secure loyalists to put in key positions.

Tell that to all the coup plotters who failed or who were successful in launching coups in order to establish tyrannical regimes; only to fail for a lack of planning and other factors....

Also look at how long it took the Bolsheviks; the Iraqi Baathists and others; to cement their hold on power; to create a system which would survive..

 

[Ananda]

you guys really trying to convince me a society that executes homosexuals is more progressive than a society that restricts some rights at best?

I'm not trying to convince you on anything. You clearly don't like the Arabs and bias on that, so why bother. However talking that Ukrainian as wholle is better more modern and civilised sociaty then Saudis, that's where I draw the line.

What basis to say Ukrainian more modern then Saudis society ? Base on how the goverment and their politics ? certaintly not. Based on their HDI ? more shown how far Ukrainian below Saudis.

What Israel got to do on your arguments ? Because some Ukrainian Jews that move to Israel able to assimilate fast with their fellow Jews ? That's definetely not barrometer to say they are more modern and culture then Saudis.

I stick my arguments to put Ukranian and Saudi's on same level state toward democracy, because both society still known Oligarch as leaders, and both still work on ethnic lines. Showing how Ukrainian and Russian Jews move in numbers to Israel shown exactly that ethnics Ukrainian and Russian both still playing on ethnic lines. Economics can be a factor, but not enough to make one communities move on large number from their original countries.

With that kind of society, the Ukranian not differed from the like of Saudis, and are still far to become and transition as real democracy sociaties.

 

[Beholder]

What is democracy ?

Well, without entering into argument(i am israeli after all, so also biased lol), democracy have several components, which in turn correspond to several types of human rights:

1. Basic human rights. here You have right to live, right of freedom of movements and freedom of religion for example.
2. Political human rights. Here You have freedom of assembly, freedom of speech or elect and be elected for example.

So to judge how close country to democracy is very simple.What is with human rights within said country?
That is how close it is.
Stable democracies is where there are institutional support for human rights and where there was change of government without violence.
All other countries are in transitional period, or not democracies at all.
It does not matter who is in power at all.

Make Your own oppinion.

 

[Pentaprism]

I am surprised that the Western Media and Politicians are continually engaging in debates and discussions about whether Russia will invade Ukraine with hardly any discussion about other options Russia has. Apart from not wanting Ukraine to join NATO Russia has also made it clear that they are not happy about the continual flow of Weapons from NATO Countries to Ukraine. So surely if there is to be Military Action the first thing to do would be address this flow of weapons.

I would have thought that some Air or long range Missile strikes targeting Warehouses where these Weapons are housed would be logical. And/or take out the Airports or Sea Ports where the Weapons are arriving. Russia could probably also take out most of Ukraine's Airforce while it is still on the ground, destroy their Air Bases and sink it's Navy as well if it wants. This would make a pretty clear point - we're not going to tolerate Ukraine becoming a Powerful Military and/or host Western Weapons on Ukrainian soil. No need to invade an inch of Ukrainian soil and risk troops in a bloody and pointless battle. Civilian casualties could be limited to a trickle and Russia could argue, not implausibly, that the US would do the same if Russia started shipping Billions of Dollars of Arms to Cuba or Venezuela. They could even send a Shipment of Arms to Cuba first to test US reaction and then mimic their response

I'm not suggesting Russia will, or should, do this but it makes a lot more sense to me than this invasion the Politicians and Journalists keep banging on about.

 

[Feanor]

I am surprised that the Western Media and Politicians are continually engaging in debates and discussions about whether Russia will invade Ukraine with hardly any discussion about other options Russia has. Apart from not wanting Ukraine to join NATO Russia has also made it clear that they are not happy about the continual flow of Weapons from NATO Countries to Ukraine. So surely if there is to be Military Action the first thing to do would be address this flow of weapons.

If Russia started the current escalation, and I do say if, then the flow of arms into Ukraine is a direct response to that. And it hasn't been a continual flow. The current deliveries are pretty unprecedented.

 

[STURM]

I am surprised that the Western Media and Politicians are continually engaging in debates and discussions about whether Russia will invade Ukraine with hardly any discussion about other options Russia has..

There has been some discussion on this in the media/

Nord Stream 2: Why Russia’s pipeline to Europe divides the West

Germany claims the project is commercial, but the US fears Moscow will use the pipeline to increase leverage in Europe.

www.aljazeera.com

“Germany has been resisting pressure from the US because it absolutely needs reliable gas supplies from Russia and, for all it is now one of the top exporters of liquified natural gas in the world, the US cannot replace Russia in that role as key gas supplier to Germany,” said Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets.

“Ukraine stands to lose several billion dollars per year in transit fees – which is what makes NS2 a cheaper option for shipment – a key stream of hard currency income for the country.”

Bypassing Ukraine sharply reduced the country’s leverage with Russia and reduced its income. However, Europe and Germany depend on Russia’s gas, with this current conflict exposing vulnerabilities, meaning Nord Stream 2 has become both a deterrent to war in Ukraine and a punishment option in the event there is one'

So surely if there is to be Military Action the first thing to do would be address this flow of weapons.

Should there be military action the first thing the Russians would do is to neutralise as far as possible the Ukrainian military and to gain as fast as possible its military objectives [whether a race to the Dnieper or a land corridor to the Crimea]; leaving the Ukraine and NATO little time to react.

As far as Western arms into the Ukraine; I doubt if quantities of anti-tank weapons; body armour, munitions of various kinds and other stuff rattles the Russians. Arms supplies and other forms of assistance are welcomed by the Ukrainians and is a sign that NATO is actually dong something but ultimately will make little to no difference if the Russians do invade. The Russians have other things to worry about and they are comforted or emboldened by the knowledge that there is actual zero possibility of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil ready to defend the country and that NATO lacks the political will to be actively involved in immediate future conflict in he Ukraine.

Air or long range Missile strikes targeting Warehouses where these Weapons are housed would be logical. And/or take out the Airports or Sea Ports where the Weapons are arriving. Russia could probably also take out most of Ukraine's Airforce while it is still on the ground, destroy their Air Bases and sink it's Navy as well if it wants. This would make a pretty clear point - we're not going to tolerate Ukraine becoming a Powerful Military and/or host Western Weapons on Ukrainian soil.

Russia has already made it clear it opposes Ukrainian membership into NATO and the deployment of certain types of NATO weapons into Eastern Europe. Those points are well understood and are taken very seriously. As for military action; it would have to include actual ground operations and not be limited to air and missile strikes in order for Russia to achieve what it wants.

 

[Pentaprism]

There has been some discussion on this in the media/

Nord Stream 2: Why Russia’s pipeline to Europe divides the West

Germany claims the project is commercial, but the US fears Moscow will use the pipeline to increase leverage in Europe.

www.aljazeera.com

“Germany has been resisting pressure from the US because it absolutely needs reliable gas supplies from Russia and, for all it is now one of the top exporters of liquified natural gas in the world, the US cannot replace Russia in that role as key gas supplier to Germany,” said Ronald Smith, senior oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets.

“Ukraine stands to lose several billion dollars per year in transit fees – which is what makes NS2 a cheaper option for shipment – a key stream of hard currency income for the country.”

Bypassing Ukraine sharply reduced the country’s leverage with Russia and reduced its income. However, Europe and Germany depend on Russia’s gas, with this current conflict exposing vulnerabilities, meaning Nord Stream 2 has become both a deterrent to war in Ukraine and a punishment option in the event there is one'



Should the military action the first thing the Russians would do is to neutralise as far as possible the Ukrainian military and to gain as fast as possible its military objectives [whether a race to the Dnieper or a land corridor to the Crimea]; leaving the Ukraine and NATO little time to react.

As far as Western arms into the Ukraine; I doubt if large quantities of anti-tank weapons; body armour, munitions of various kinds and other stuff rattles the Russians. They are fully aware that there is actual zero possibility of NATO troops in numbers ready to fight on Ukrainian soil and that NATO lacks the political will to be actively involved in any future conflict of the Ukraine.

Yes there has been plenty of discussion about Sanctions and Energy Trade in the media. Looks to be something of a zero sum game, it sure hurts Russia but it also sure hurts Europe.

But all the discussion of Military action I have read assumes there would be a land invasion. I think this assumption is flawed. I believe Russia can make a strong point just with some limited tactical Air Strikes. They can deliver a strong but non fatal blow to Ukrainian forces then give them an ultimatum - you will lose your entire Air Force and Navy if you continue to import and stockpile Western Weapons. And Russia should be able to achieve this without risking serious Casualties on either side. If NATO can't get weapons into Ukraine then Ukraine can't join NATO so it achieves the result. And it checks US Power, which I believe is Putin's main aim.

In this scenario the Europeans would be reluctant to impose major sanctions if there is no invasion and few Casualties, knowing it will result in huge energy price hikes if they do. Of course they would have do something, but there would not be the necessary consensus to implement full scale sanctions.

Obviously Russia would like land access to Crimea, not to mention water supply from the Canals, but it's not worth jeopardising their Energy Business for. They already have sufficient access to the Black Sea and their Navy is far superior to Ukraine's.

I also disagree that Russia would not be concerned about the Anti-Tank Missiles and Anti-Aircraft missiles coming in. They learnt in Syria the Tank Missiles are a serious threat to all Land Vehicles and the amount Ukraine is receiving is not insignificant. Each shipment increases the costs to Russia of any Land Conflict in the future. The Drones are also a nuisance from their perspective.

 

[Atunga]

If Russia started the current escalation, and I do say if, then the flow of arms into Ukraine is a direct response to that. And it hasn't been a continual flow. The current deliveries are pretty unprecedented.

It's sad but the reality is that Russia is being pushed to take some sort of action against Ukraine so that sanctions can start pouring in hard, the arm supplies are designed to piss Moscow off, pushing them to take action. US never wanted NS2 pipeline to be built in the first place, Ukraine don't understand why Russia has to attack them first before the pipeline is sanctioned, Ukraine has been demanding for pre-emptive sanctions on the pipeline. in my opinion most of Russia's current problems comes from this pipeline.. gas has to go through Ukraine, like it or not

 

[Ananda]

that the US would do the same if Russia started shipping Billions of Dollars of Arms to Cuba or Venezuela. They could even send a Shipment of Arms to Cuba first to test US reaction and then mimic their response

Problem is Russia is not USSR. They don't have same capabilities to continue providing subsidise armament toward Cuba and Venezuela. I do believe that kind of thinking already set in mind in Moscow.

However so far US and West only providing mostly ATM. If Russia then reacted by giving Cuba (I emphasize giving as Cuba practically brooke) say more advanced Mig-29 version (say Mig-35) to Cuba (as this can be a significant improvement on Cuba Air power, in which then can be seen as increase threat level for US), then US probably will answer by giving (again I emphasize giving because Ukraine also brooke) F-16V for Ukrainian AF. Something that Russia clearly want to avoid as they can't playing that kind of tit for tat game with US. USSR can afford that kind of game, Russia can't.

does not matter who is in power at all

Well you also entitled to your own opinion. However who's in power and how they get it clearly in my book shown how one society has already have enough social construct to be democratic. When the power still moving from one oligarchy to another, when other ethnics Political power being push down on the pretext national security, then it's shown that society is still far to be ready as democracy one

in my opinion most of Russia's current problems comes from this pipeline.. gas has to go through Ukraine, like it or not

The German that support the Nordstream 2, is just make more Economics sense. US and Ukraine doesn't like it, but German public that have to pay from their wallets on more expensive Gas bill without NS2.

 

[STURM]

And it checks US Power, which I believe is Putin's main aim.

His aim is to ensure that Russia's backyard in secure; by not having Ukraine a a NATO member and not having larger troops and certain types of weapons from NATO is an area which is Russia's backyard and one in which Russia/the Soviet Union has long controlled.

But all the discussion of Military action I have read assumes there would be a land invasion. I think this assumption is flawed. I believe Russia can make a strong point just with some limited tactical Air Strikes.

And if that fails to achieve the desired results then what? What happens if after those ''limited tactical Air Strikes'' NATO still does not backdown and the Ukraine doesn't sue for peace?

What is ''flawed'' is the assumption that air and missiles strikes will lead to NATO and the Ukraine backing off and caving in to Russian demands. If Russia comes to a point where it decides that only military action can enable it to achieve its objectives; only an actual invasion will do; not some half measured actions which will leave others to doubt its seriousness and which might back it into an uncomfortable corner with no tangible payoffs..

but it's not worth jeopardising their Energy Business for. They already have sufficient access to the Black Sea and their Navy is far superior to Ukraine's.

This ignores the importance the Crimea holds for Russia. Establishing a land corridor cements its hold on the Crimea. Russia would prefer not to invade but it would if t reaches the point where it absolutely has no other choice...

I also disagree that Russia would not be concerned about the Anti-Tank Missiles and Anti-Aircraft missiles coming in. They learnt in Syria the Tank Missiles are a serious threat to all Land Vehicles

The issue is not the effectiveness of ATGWs but the very fact that in the overall scheme of things they will not be decisive in actually stopping a Russian invasion.... The Russians will lose sleep over a U.S. armoured division and a Brit mechanised brigade deployed east of the Dnieper but not over arms deliveries which although will improve the ability of the Ukrainians to resist an invasion; will not actually deliver a decisive outcome......

The Drones are also a nuisance from their perspective.

UASs are a nuisance for anyone on the receiving end of them and lacking the means to counter them.

One thing we've seen is the Russians become a very effective UAS operator at the tactical/operational level and being able to integrate them into highly effective strike/recce packages; we saw clear instances of UASs detecting targets and those targets being hit by a very accurate arty/MLRS salvo only minutes later.

We also know that the Russians integrate and deploy EW at various levels [even down to brigade level or lower] and have the ability to counter UASs. Also, given the air defence and EW capabilities they have and their widespread use; I would be very interested to see how Ukrainian UASs will be able to operate in a time of conflict.

the arm supplies are designed to piss Moscow off, pushing them to take action.

They are 'designed' to show the Ukraine that it is not alone despite NATO not willing to go to war over it and to send Russia a similar message.