Russia - General Discussion.

[Ananda]

South Korean deals with Poland seem to indicate significant technical openness.

South Korea is open to tech co-op, when the tech is theirs. The point in previous post that I made, more to the problem that the like of ROK, India and Turkey MIC face in global competition. Problem that their MIC still using many other people tech. When the tech is theirs, then they are relative more open comparing to others more mature MIC players.

Like I said before, the game now for most Arms Export market, is the willingness to open tech transfer. Most arm imported nations want to reduce their imports in time, and build their own domestic MIC. So prediction the pace of Imports will be reduce on those big imports market, and change with whose going to be biggest providers of tech. Doesn't means imports will gone, but the scope in time on those big imports market will change to parts supplies on MIC to MIC supply chains.

all that, the Ukrainians did much, much better than the Russians early on.

I don't want to comment much on the war in this thread, as it's supposed to be on other thread topic. However as I mentioned on the other thread, both sides shown enough debacles, which made this war turn into this grinding attrition war since May last year. Thus I don't see any sides will change that soon this year. Any progress from either sides in the ground will come on grinding costs.

Thus the point that I made in previous points more related toward Ukranian abilities to strike deeps into Russian soils 'significantly'. Especially something that will reduce Russian MIC infrastructure.

I don't see even with more Western supplies, Ukraine will be able to hit Russian MIC facilities within deep in Russian proper much. Ukrainian MIC practically destroyed in the early phase of war, because that's part of Russian strategy. However thinking Ukrainian can retaliate the same way toward Russian MIC will not happen. Unless this War already turn in to hot war with NATO committed their own boots in the ground. Which we know this means WW3.

Ukrainian use drones and covert operations will not done much toward Russian MIC infrastructure. Yes they can do some 'small' damages as they already shown in their incursions toward Russian based in Russian proper. However this mostly just so far act more as 'symbolics' attacks that good for Political and Moral points. Not really done something that change much in the ground.

 

[ngatimozart]

South Korea is open to tech co-op, when the tech is theirs. The point in previous post that I made, more to the problem that the like of ROK, India and Turkey MIC face in global competition. Problem that their MIC still using many other people tech. When the tech is theirs, then they are relative more open comparing to others more mature MIC players.

Like I said before, the game now for most Arms Export market, is the willingness to open tech transfer. Most arm imported nations want to reduce their imports in time, and build their own domestic MIC. So prediction the pace of Imports will be reduce on those big imports market, and change with whose going to be biggest providers of tech. Doesn't means imports will gone, but the scope in time on those big imports market will change to parts supplies on MIC to MIC supply chains.



I don't want to comment much on the war in this thread, as it's supposed to be on other thread topic. However as I mentioned on the other thread, both sides shown enough debacles, which made this war turn into this grinding attrition war since May last year. Thus I don't see any sides will change that soon this year. Any progress from either sides in the ground will come on grinding costs.

Thus the point that I made in previous points more related toward Ukranian abilities to strike deeps into Russian soils 'significantly'. Especially something that will reduce Russian MIC infrastructure.

I don't see even with more Western supplies, Ukraine will be able to hit Russian MIC facilities within deep in Russian proper much. Ukrainian MIC practically destroyed in the early phase of war, because that's part of Russian strategy. However thinking Ukrainian can retaliate the same way toward Russian MIC will not happen. Unless this War already turn in to hot war with NATO committed their own boots in the ground. Which we know this means WW3.

Ukrainian use drones and covert operations will not done much toward Russian MIC infrastructure. Yes they can do some 'small' damages as they already shown in their incursions toward Russian based in Russian proper. However this mostly just so far act more as 'symbolics' attacks that good for Political and Moral points. Not really done something that change much in the ground.

The Russian MIC isn't necessarily an ideal short / medium target for Ukraine or others in the current conflict. I would suggest that purely military targets, especially Engels and other airbases, SAM, military depots, Black Sea naval bases etc., be the priority targets. The Russian IADS has already shown to be leaky and that behoves better possibilities for any aggressor wanting to access Russian airspace for any reason. However this situation won't last forever and IF the Russians acquire a political / military leadership that is near the standard of the WW2 Stavka, and as ruthless, then the situation will change for the better from the Russian POV.

 

[Ananda]

However this situation won't last forever and IF the Russians acquire a political / military leadership that is near the standard of the WW2 Stavka, and as ruthless, then the situation will change for the better from the Russian POV.

This is me just being devil advocates . That's why I do believe Putin still better for Ukraine and even Collective West to stay on his position. If he is gone someone that more ruthless, nationalistic and (ussualy on that packages) more militaristic can come out. This can create better Russian military leadership in the ground. Can be said Zhukov 2.0 ? Not an ex KGB like now.

 

[Feanor]

Is Russian MIC and aerospace industry hold any export or delay international supplies to customers?

This Algerian tweeters seems shown confidence their order still being delivered by Russian.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1610592060775464960

This for BE200, amphibious plane.

What engines is it flying and when did Russia get them? That's not a type. Not where, when.

At what stage of the development cycle is the PD-8?

 

[Ananda]

First Algerian Be-200ChS seaplane unveiled in Russia

The first Beriev Be-200ChS (Be-200ES) amphibious aircraft ordered by Algeria has been publicly unveiled in Russia prior to it undergoing flight tests

www.key.aero

The first Be-200ChS amphibious aircraft was built for Algeria

As reported, at the end of December 2022 at PJSC Taganrog Aviation Scientific and Technical Complex named after G.M. Beriev (TANTK) PJSC "United Aircraft Corporation" in Taganrog, without publicity, the roll-out of the completed construction of the first amphibious aircraft Be-200ChS (Be-200ES)...

vpk.name

More on that Algerians BE 200. Seems it is also veing used to shown that Russian MIC can still deliver export order.

what stage of the development cycle is the PD-8?

So this is still use Motorsich D-436 ? Russian before talk PD-8 is going to be use on export (this I also got from Indonesian sources when Rosoboron pitch for Indonesian Amphibious contract). Saying Russian engine will be use to replace all Ukrainian engine.

Isn't Russia speed up PD-8 to give SuperJet 100 Russian version engine ? Is not ready yet ? Last time I check Aviadvigatel already using IL-76 as flying test bed early last year.

Anyway getting Motorsich going to be problematic for export customers also. I do doubt Motorsich facilities still operational.

 

[Ananda]

Why Are We Exporting Something We So Desperately Need?

It's critical that we stop permitting gas exporters to liquefy American natural gas and sell it overseas. Taking natural gas out of the domestic market causes a ripple effect across our entire economy, raising prices for energy, heat, and everyday consumer goods.

www.newsweek.com

Like I said before, election year closing by. I don't want to talk US domestics politics, as it is getting murkier (not to mention mods not liking that topic). However US domestics politics like it or not will determine US foreign politics (not the other way around). Especially under current political environment.

How far US domestics politics going to continue the path that current administration taking on Ukraine and Euro support, is going to be interesting to see.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

I occasionally enjoy reading the political articles in the US press.
They alternate very interesting studies and analyzes with articles of incredible stupidity and naivety.
I suppose that's the beauty of being a young nation and not having the weight of millennia of civilization behind it...

I also find it incredibly surprising how a large part of Americans are completely unaware of being an imperial power and of having a real global empire to govern, manage and run.
The isolationist and nationalist outings of certain newspapers and politicians are really fun to read, for a European like me…

 

[TayJG]

However as I mentioned on the other thread, both sides shown enough debacles, which made this war turn into this grinding attrition war since May last year. Thus I don't see any sides will change that soon this year. Any progress from either sides in the ground will come on grinding costs.

What Ukrainian "debacles" do you speak of?

Unless this War already turn in to hot war with NATO committed their own boots in the ground. Which we know this means WW3.

I find it odd that you mention this, since this is highly unlikely.

Ukrainian use drones and covert operations will not done much toward Russian MIC infrastructure. Yes they can do some 'small' damages as they already shown in their incursions toward Russian based in Russian proper. However this mostly just so far act more as 'symbolics' attacks that good for Political and Moral points. Not really done something that change much in the ground.

I don't know about that. Didn't Russia move an enormous amount of bombers far to the East after Ukraine hit their bomber base in Engels?

Also having to post up more air defense in all bases, logistics and command hubs spreads out the air defense - weakening it. It also prevents Russia from using S-300 as artillery, as they have been doing. The attack on the Kerch straight bridge likely played a considerable role in forcing Russia to withdraw from Kherson and its environs. The bridge has still not been repaired yet.

Then there was the naval drone attack that hit the Admiral Makarov. I wouldn't dismiss all of these attacks as Jimmy Doolittle Tokyo raids.

 

[TayJG]

I occasionally enjoy reading the political articles in the US press.
They alternate very interesting studies and analyzes with articles of incredible stupidity and naivety.
I suppose that's the beauty of being a young nation and not having the weight of millennia of civilization behind it...

I also find it incredibly surprising how a large part of Americans are completely unaware of being an imperial power and of having a real global empire to govern, manage and run.
The isolationist and nationalist outings of certain newspapers and politicians are really fun to read, for a European like me…

I would say it's fairly absurd to say that the US has a "real global empire to govern."

It's one thing to use hyperbole, but if one doesn't realize that one is using it, that's another level.

 

[TayJG]

I'm not sure poverty is the issue, rather the priorities. Russia could field a carrier replacement if this was a priority. But what Russia can't do is field a giant nuclear submarine fleet, gigantic ground forces, a large strategic bomber fleet with both Tu-160Ms and PAK-DAs, 600+ combat jets, and multiple carriers.

Well I notice a few things: Russia is building T-72B3 and not T-90MS, no T-14, plus Russia has taken enormous losses in the war, plus seems to be getting reduced money from sanctions and less sales of natural resources, so I think Russia will not be able to afford to replace Kuzentzov.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

How can you say Russia is building a certain type of tank, or that they are getting reduced money (?) because of western unilateral sanctions?
And what is the connection between those things and the Kuzni?
Energy prices this year were at an all-time high and Europe's request was high because of the need to replenish stock.

Russia fossil fuel exports by type 2022 | Statista

The revenue from Russian fossil fuel exports stood at over 700 million euros daily in December 2022. Russia's gas income per day was below 100 million euros.

www.statista.com

Russian economy was hit very hard but their defense indutry is in mass-mobilization regime and many economical assets are moving from private to the state.
So, while being in a situation of huge economic losses ( Rostat reported that the automotive sector had a peak of minus 80/90% Russian car market's China pivot may be a sign of country's economic future ) russian economy is far from collapsing.
That being said, resources destined to the armed forces will increase ( and by a lot ) and won't probably impact the ability to maintain in service a certain ship/submarine/bomber/tank.
Is it worth to spend a stupid amount of resources to keep the Kuznetsov in service? No.
Is it affordable to loose their only aircraft carrier and show weakness? No.
Which one is more important, money or prestige? I have my answer, but its not universal.

We can only wait to see...

 

[TayJG]

How can you say Russia is building a certain type of tank, or that they are getting reduced money (?) because of western unilateral sanctions?
And what is the connection between those things and the Kuzni?
Energy prices this year were at an all-time high and Europe's request was high because of the need to replenish stock.

Russia fossil fuel exports by type 2022 | Statista

The revenue from Russian fossil fuel exports stood at over 700 million euros daily in December 2022. Russia's gas income per day was below 100 million euros.

www.statista.com

Russian economy was hit very hard but their defense indutry is in mass-mobilization regime and many economical assets are moving from private to the state.
So, while being in a situation of huge economic losses ( Rostat reported that the automotive sector had a peak of minus 80/90% Russian car market's China pivot may be a sign of country's economic future ) russian economy is far from collapsing.
That being said, resources destined to the armed forces will increase ( and by a lot ) and won't probably impact the ability to maintain in service a certain ship/submarine/bomber/tank.
Is it worth to spend a stupid amount of resources to keep the Kuznetsov in service? No.
Is it affordable to loose their only aircraft carrier and show weakness? No.
Which one is more important, money or prestige? I have my answer, but its not universal.

We can only wait to see...

Because I think even Russia said they were building T-14 at a very slow pace before the war. Russia also says that it's building T-72B3. The are pictures of new ones being transported to the front.

The obvious connection of all these things is that if Russia doesn't even have the resources to build its second best tank (T-90MS) then they don't have the resources to build a new carrier. The only reason Kuznetzov is still around is because Russia didn't have the resources to replace it....and that was BEFORE Russia was crippled by the war.

Energy prices were at an all time high last year and so were sanctions on Russia. Russian energy production was at record lows and the people they sold to shaved off 1/3 of the price that Russia would have gotten from Europe.

Russia's economy was terrible even before the war, now we have sanctions, plus all the Russian men who fled abroad to avoid conscription who are probably many of Russia's brightest and best minds. Then there's all the casualties Russia has and will continue to take from the war. Russia has some 120 million people, if I recall correctly, but even before the war their economy was smaller than some individual US states (i.e. California separately, Texas separately and New York separately). A country that only has natural resources and can't even sell them to the wealthiest countries on the planet is not in a good position to spend money on things like an aircraft carrier.

 

[Feanor]

Well I notice a few things: Russia is building T-72B3 and not T-90MS, no T-14, plus Russia has taken enormous losses in the war, plus seems to be getting reduced money from sanctions and less sales of natural resources, so I think Russia will not be able to afford to replace Kuzentzov.

You're dead wrong. T-90M production is thoroughly documented. Feel free to peruse the Russian Land Forces thread. We've also seen more T-90Ms put into service in the past 10 months, then had entered service in the 3 preceding years put together.

Financially Russia can replace the Kuznetsov if they so choose. The question is whether this is a priority. From a manufacturing standpoint producing the replacement domestically is not currently possible and would be an expensive, and likely disastrous mess if attempted. But purchasing one in China or India (now that they're producing) is in principle possible. It remains to be seen whether Russia is willing to take a step of that nature, personally I have my doubts. But the production of the new floating dock in China is a sign, and the isolation and economic problems that follow may make this option more palatable.

 

[TayJG]

You're dead wrong. T-90M production is thoroughly documented. Feel free to peruse the Russian Land Forces thread. We've also seen more T-90Ms put into service in the past 10 months, then had entered service in the 3 preceding years put together.

Financially Russia can replace the Kuznetsov if they so choose. The question is whether this is a priority. From a manufacturing standpoint producing the replacement domestically is not currently possible and would be an expensive, and likely disastrous mess if attempted. But purchasing one in China or India (now that they're producing) is in principle possible. It remains to be seen whether Russia is willing to take a step of that nature, personally I have my doubts. But the production of the new floating dock in China is a sign, and the isolation and economic problems that follow may make this option more palatable.

You're talking out the wrong end. T-72B3 production can clearly be seen. If Russia can afford to build T-90M, then why does it build T-72B3 and take old T-62's out of storage and put them into combat? Also, you've not specified how many T-90Ms you claim are being built.

Russia clearly cannot replace Kuznetsov for all the reasons I've mentioned. I also posted up some sources debunking the argument that Russia was doing fine due to its oil sales, in fact the opposite is occurring. For some reason an unknown moderator deleted my sources because supposedly they have no comment.

I don't see any reason to believe that India would be an attractive place to have a carrier built.

Regardless, as I've said Russia clearly is too poor to afford a carrier and actually it's thinking like that that caused them to be losing the war in Ukraine in the first place.

 

[seaspear]

Everything I have been able to access suggests more a stalemate than either side winning or losing Russia is still able to substantially increase its boots on the ground through mobilisation, its weapons production for some months is at a high pace

 

[Ananda]

Didn't Russia move an enormous amount of bombers far to the East after Ukraine hit their bomber base in Engels?

Really ? Do you have enough claim to base on ? Moving 'some' to other base not same as 'enormous'. As debacles by both sides is clear information on open sources to see. I don't want to educate you on this, as you must first educate your self.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

I havent seen any debacles in this war.
Some very poorly conducted operations by the Russians and some errors by the ukrainians, various tactical mistakes and maybe a couple of " questionable " choices...but no debacles.
The closest thing we had Is the Russian retreat from Kharkiv and Lyman, but even that One cant really be classified as a debacles, at least from my idea of " debacle"

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Someone here stated that " Russia Is Building T72B3 instead of T-90MS"


Russian TV, today.
This Is the Ural plant.


T-90MS, Indeed.

 

[Feanor]

Someone here stated that " Russia Is Building T72B3 instead of T-90MS"

View attachment 50001
Russian TV, today.
This Is the Ural plant.
View attachment 50002

T-90MS, Indeed.

Russia is building both. The last delivery included a batch of T-72B3mod'22s and T-90Ms. One of Russia's advantages is an MBT production line greater then anything Ukraine or any of its western backers have available. This doesn't meant the US or Germany can't outproduce but they would need to expand production to do so. The mystery is whether Russia can produce the T-14. Many Russian sources say no, but none are industry insiders... If T-14 production is really non-viable due to sanctions, I think they need to revisit OKR Burlak.

EDIT: Russia is also pulling everything from storage they can. We now see T-72As back on the front lines (before they were there with the 90th TD), T-62Ms are nothing new, and T-80BVs are increasingly common.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Russia is building both. The last delivery included a batch of T-72B3mod'22s and T-90Ms. One of Russia's advantages is an MBT production line greater then anything Ukraine or any of its western backers have available. This doesn't meant the US or Germany can't outproduce but they would need to expand production to do so. The mystery is whether Russia can produce the T-14. Many Russian sources say no, but none are industry insiders... If T-14 production is really non-viable due to sanctions, I think they need to revisit OKR Burlak.

EDIT: Russia is also pulling everything from storage they can. We now see T-72As back on the front lines (before they were there with the 90th TD), T-62Ms are nothing new, and T-80BVs are increasingly common.

Everything true.
I was just pointing out a claim that was made with no proof.

Actually I do have some doubts about the T-14. Production of the Armata Is a big question Mark.
Su-57 Is a mistery too... Can 4 Planes/year be considered serial production?
Those are the official numbers... 12 planes in 3 years...