Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[John Fedup]

Just wondering what the army thinks about $18 billion on helicopters. Compared to the RCAF and RCN, the army is getting jackshit. Some serious kit upgrades are in order, primarily for border defence (and that's the southern border not the northern)!

 

[Terran]

The project is to acquire a set of capabilities, not just one type. The tiltrotor would be one of, from my understanding, up to four different types: Utility (to replace the Griffon - something like the H145M, H175M, or AW149), Attack (a new capability similar to the Apache), Recce (reacquiring a capability the RCAF had up until the late 90s with the CH-139 JetRanger), and this long-range assault capability represented by the tiltrotor. I've also heard it may be expanded to include a replacement (or upgrade) to the heavy lift side (currently Chinook). It's a developing story, but it's a funded program, so the project office is actively engaged with industry.

We might be able to infer the direction this project is taking with the following announcement: Airbus signs historic contract to provide 19 H135 military training helicopters to the Royal Canadian Air Force. In other words, towards a European type, at least for the Utility helicopter.

True though… This is Canada, and it’s hard to imagine them having the bandwidth, Budget and political capital to procure a number of aircraft.

Utility is an easy class to cover and the H135M is a fine training, air ambulance, Utility or VIP chopper class. Though it’s fairly short range. The H145M has been modified to be more military capable but it’s only moderately more capable than the H135. I mean the payload difference is only 700lbs.
The H175 is a closer match to the CH146 griffons in payload with a larger theoretical pax.
The AW149 is actually closer to the S70 Blackhawk.

Attack does not automatically require an Apache or equivalent. Bell’s concept work for FVL include a V280 gunship. Basically a V280 with the cabin replaced by missile racks and a M230 chain gun slung under the nose. It’s not a unique concept Sikorsky’s Blackhawk has been sold in a similar configuration called the “Battle Hawk” and the AW149 has external stores options for mounting ATGMs. Any of these configurations would be a major step up from the CH146 which is basically mounting gun pods. The three described configurations all retain the base fuselage so not dedicated attack choppers. Using the same base as the assault platform giving savings on common parts and training.

in Recce these days the trends seem to favor UAS rather than manned however if manned is required then the H135M has been designed with this mission the main problem point is how would it fair in the Arctic?

On the Heavy side there are fewer options to replace the capability of the Chinook. The Europeans flirted with their own heavy lifter but they never laid down any euros on it. Leaving heavy lift rotary wing as a U.S. monopoly barring Russian aircraft. It’s either CH53K but that line is likely to close sooner rather than later or CH47F block III. Even in the U.S. FVL it’s not realistic to expect a Chinook replacement until the at least the 2040s meaning Chinook is likely to be a century old family before it’s retired. Bell seems to be working on a tilt rotor jet hybrid for the job.

 

[John Fedup]

Agree, the Chinook will be around for a long time, probably 30 years or more and long after the CH53K ceases production, a great helio but way too expensive for most customers.

 

[MARKMILES77]

If this trade war continues to expand, is it likely Canada will continue with the planned buy of F-35s?
Cancelling this buy must be one of the ways Canada could retaliate against the U.S.A.

 

[Todjaeger]

If this trade war continues to expand, is it likely Canada will continue with the planned buy of F-35s?
Cancelling this buy must be one of the ways Canada could retaliate against the U.S.A.

Yes, but that could also develop into a situation where Canada cuts off their nose, to spite their face...

The current RCAF fighters are, to be blunt, aged and need replacement. If the RCAF were to restart the programme to replace the Hornets, how long would it be before new fighters could start in RCAF service, and when could the last Canadian Hornet be taken out of service.

 

[John Fedup]

Another option is to cut the purchase down to 40 jets and put the savings into GCAP. If things deteriorate further then a total cancellation could result and a 30-40 unit purchase of Gripens together with a Global Eye purchase could be an option together with a GCAP investment and purchase post 2035 for the latter.

 

[FormerDirtDart]

Another option is to cut the purchase down to 40 jets and put the savings into GCAP. If things deteriorate further then a total cancellation could result and a 30-40 unit purchase of Gripens together with a Global Eye purchase could be an option together with a GCAP investment and purchase post 2035 for the latter.

A problem with procuring Gripens though could be gaining US approval of the transfer of the GE F414 engines used in the current production aircraft. The administration recently halted Columbia's acquisition of Gripen by denying the re-sale of the engines.

 

[Todjaeger]

Another option is to cut the purchase down to 40 jets and put the savings into GCAP. If things deteriorate further then a total cancellation could result and a 30-40 unit purchase of Gripens together with a Global Eye purchase could be an option together with a GCAP investment and purchase post 2035 for the latter.

This could happen, but how long would it take for the RCAF to be able to reach IOC with at least a few replacement fighters? Keeping in mind that to reach something like IOC with an entirely new type would mean that pilots would need to be trained/transitioned, ground crews/maintainers, and an initial stock of parts, documentation and appropriate tools/diagnostics. Not to mention the actual fighters themselves. By my admittedly rather rough estimate, it would likely take about four years from contract signing to delivery of first units, assuming that no other issues are encountered. As @FormerDirtDart mentioned though, Gripen (and many, many other pieces of military kit) either contain US components, or US IP, which means the US gov't could still manage to throw a wrench into such plans.

 

[Terran]

Another option is to cut the purchase down to 40 jets and put the savings into GCAP. If things deteriorate further then a total cancellation could result and a 30-40 unit purchase of Gripens together with a Global Eye purchase could be an option together with a GCAP investment and purchase post 2035 for the latter.

If you wanted to get out of US ITARs you would have to go French Rafael.
However the PM would have to convince the French government that they wouldn’t plug the Rafael into the joint systems of NORAD. (The French don’t want to have America cooties on their flying baguette.)
They would also have to deal with the French logistics, training and other aspects (like them judging the French Canadian accent).
Problem is… long before delivery or even negotiation starts one of Three things will happen.

• The Trade war ends with a deal between Trudeau’s successor (#24) (likely successors successor #25 or #26) and the Trump admin. Putting the Kibash on a F35 replacement that before the notoriously slow Canadian military procurement process starts.
• The Trump Admin ends. The PM in 2029 cuts a new deal with POTUS #48. Canceling the cancellation…
• The Trump admin ends POTUS #48 and the Canadian PM in 2029 sign a trade deal but the PM In between managed to pull off what seemed a miracle but now a curse in canceling F35 creating a new mess as the cancellation fees now have to be paid before the Canadian government can move to negotiate a deal on new fighters.

Just consider for a moment.
Justin “Junior” (as @John Fedup affectionately describes him) Trudeau, 23rd Prime Minister of the Canada has 5 days to pack his U haul (budget? Penske? Dog sled?) because his party Votes on the 9th and will install a new PM (#24). Meaning his Eviction notice final, his move out date is coming and given Canadian reality prices I hope he has been frugal for his sake. The real poor SOB will be his replacement (#24). Canadian Parliament reopens the 24th of March (sadly not the 15th of March… if you know you know) a number of members have stated they will call a no confidence vote. If that vote goes through then Canada has a general election probably in mid April and a new government by May Meaning someone new Moves into 24 Sussex drive (though Justin never did) and the PM who takes power on the 10th (#24) is out of the job with maybe 50 days in office. As PM#25 moves in.

Donald J. Trump the 45th and 47th President of the United States of America Has 1416 days (March 5, The year of our Lord 2025) to pack his private 757 because barring any unforeseen events. November 7th 2028 is Election Day and President Trump has already served a 4 year term as POTUS. So January 19th 2029 a new American administration (at Noon some other suc… errmmm Distinguished individual gets the submit a Change of Address to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Washington DC Swear the oath and spend the next 4-8 years trying to clean up the orange stains on the furniture until they’re replaced by #49.)
Tempus fugit so which will go faster the terms of office? The Canadian Military procurement or a breakdown and negotiations between Washington and Ottawa?

 

[John Fedup]

A problem with procuring Gripens though could be gaining US approval of the transfer of the GE F414 engines used in the current production aircraft. The administration recently halted Columbia's acquisition of Gripen by denying the re-sale of the engines.

True enough and it would be additional confirmation America isn't a reliable ally. Typhoon is an option albeit an expensive one

 

[John Fedup]

This could happen, but how long would it take for the RCAF to be able to reach IOC with at least a few replacement fighters? Keeping in mind that to reach something like IOC with an entirely new type would mean that pilots would need to be trained/transitioned, ground crews/maintainers, and an initial stock of parts, documentation and appropriate tools/diagnostics. Not to mention the actual fighters themselves. By my admittedly rather rough estimate, it would likely take about four years from contract signing to delivery of first units, assuming that no other issues are encountered. As @FormerDirtDart mentioned though, Gripen (and many, many other pieces of military kit) either contain US components, or US IP, which means the US gov't could still manage to throw a wrench into such plans.

Yes, the US can throw up all sorts of obstacles, precisely the reason for finding alternatives. Trump America is now a greater threat than China or Russia to Canadian sovereignty. WTF do we want defence kit now from a country that is threat and has the means to screw kit purchased from said country and cut off spares?

 

[John Fedup]

If you wanted to get out of US ITARs you would have to go French Rafael.
However the PM would have to convince the French government that they wouldn’t plug the Rafael into the joint systems of NORAD. (The French don’t want to have America cooties on their flying baguette.)[\QUOTE]

Yes, but given the downhill slide in relations, Canadian involvement in NORAD could cease.

• The Trade war ends with a deal between Trudeau’s successor (#24) (likely successors successor #25 or #26) and the Trump admin. Putting the Kibash on a F35 replacement that before the notoriously slow Canadian military procurement process starts.
  [*]The Trump Admin ends. The PM in 2029 cuts a new deal with POTUS #48. Canceling the cancellation…
  [*]The Trump admin ends POTUS #48 and the Canadian PM in 2029 sign a trade deal but the PM In between managed to pull off what seemed a miracle but now a curse in canceling F35 creating a new mess as the cancellation fees now have to be paid before the Canadian government can move to negotiate a deal on new fighters.

Any reduction or cancellation would have to happen quickly (assuming alternatives are available). Assuming Trump is willing to leave in 2028, it is unlikely any successor will be any better. More importantly, Trump America has damaged the relationship. There is no trust and we need to disengage to a large extent.

Just consider for a moment.
Justin “Junior” (as @John Fedup affectionately describes him) Trudeau, 23rd Prime Minister of the Canada has 5 days to pack his U haul (budget? Penske? Dog sled?) because his party Votes on the 9th and will install a new PM (#24). Meaning his Eviction notice final, his move out date is coming and given Canadian reality prices I hope he has been frugal for his sake. The real poor SOB will be his replacement (#24). Canadian Parliament reopens the 24th of March (sadly not the 15th of March… if you know you know) a number of members have stated they will call a no confidence vote. If that vote goes through then Canada has a general election probably in mid April and a new government by May Meaning someone new Moves into 24 Sussex drive (though Justin never did) and the PM who takes power on the 10th (#24) is out of the job with maybe 50 days in office. As PM#25 moves in.

Agree, any new PM will have a $hitload of problems to deal with besides Trump. Regardless of which party wins (PP's conservatives have been falling in the polls) where will be no improvement in relations.. Trump is toxic with the Canadian electorate, federally and provincially. Trade and defence procurement will shift to reliable partners and involvement in GCAP and other major acquisitions/partnerships will involve Asia and Europe.

Donald J. Trump the 45th and 47th President of the United States of America Has 1416 days (March 5, The year of our Lord 2025) to pack his private 757 because barring any unforeseen events. November 7th 2028 is Election Day and President Trump has already served a 4 year term as POTUS. So January 19th 2029 a new American administration (at Noon some other suc… errmmm Distinguished individual gets the submit a Change of Address to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Washington DC Swear the oath and spend the next 4-8 years trying to clean up the orange stains on the furniture until they’re replaced by #49.)
Tempus fugit so which will go faster the terms of office? The Canadian Military procurement or a breakdown and negotiations between Washington and Ottawa?

Again, assuming he leaves and the MAGA infection won't vanish with his departure. It will more of the same crap. The US Canada relationship will end in divorce, Trump's legacy.

 

[Terran]

Yes, but given the downhill slide in relations, Canadian involvement in NORAD could cease.

That’s a hard step. Especially right now because of the established Canadian government instability.

Any reduction or cancellation would have to happen quickly (assuming alternatives are available). Assuming Trump is willing to leave in 2028, it is unlikely any successor will be any better. More importantly, Trump America has damaged the relationship. There is no trust and we need to disengage to a large extent.

It’s not like Trump has a choice in the matter. The President has a term limit. In 2029 his term ends. His popularity is such that he is unlikely to repeal the 22nd Amendment which as a Constitutional Amendment would demand a constitutional amendment itself. He may have had a tantrum and people may have rioted when his previous term ended but reality is he is an 79 year old man by 2029 he is pushing 83. In no condition to push any further.
Trump has been in office 44 days this term. The relationship will recover and historically American politics is a pendulum and Trump is a drama queen.
In the meantime The F35 is heavily invested into Canada and a few hours ago there were reports that a month long reprieve on some tariffs was coming from the Whitehouse.
Trudeau isn’t budging yet but as I said he doesn’t have long in office it’s his successors who land in the hot seat.

 

[John Fedup]

The relationship has been damaged sufficiently that it will never recover fully. The tariff dispute is finally going to lead to serious diversification of trade away from the US market and absolutely decreased purchases of US military kit in the long term along with more domestic production. Agree Trump will depart at some point due to old age however the MAGA crowd will still be around as will the voter pool that were content to support a convicted felon and pathological liar. If Trump thinks any of the potential junior replacements will roll over for him, he will be disappointed. Voters here despise Trump and any polly a$$ kissing Trump won't last long. Canada will never buy a 6th gen fighter from America and the F-35 acquisition will probably be safe. If pending upgrades fail to happen on time, the order might be reduced and EU or GCAP will be considered. At some point the army will need massive new investment which will result in new EU and Asian partnerships with some production in Canada.

 

[Sender]

F35 is probably a done deal, and despite all the rhetoric, is the exact right airplane for Canada. I agree with the sentiment re. cutting of our nose to spite our face. E-7 isn't a done deal though - GlobalEye will work just fine for the intended purpose, which is northern surveillance.

 

[John Fedup]

F35 is probably a done deal, and despite all the rhetoric, is the exact right airplane for Canada. I agree with the sentiment re. cutting of our nose to spite our face. E-7 isn't a done deal though - GlobalEye will work just fine for the intended purpose, which is northern surveillance.

Questionable if all 88 are actually acquired given the on going delays on key upgrades, TR3, block 4 software AND the ECU for the F135. It was the right jet for Canada until Trump America demonstrated it can’t be trusted. Cancellation or reduction will have economic consequences but an unreliable ally that can cut off spares and possibly disable F-35s are worse consequences IMO.

 

[Sender]

Questionable if all 88 are actually acquired given the on going delays on key upgrades, TR3, block 4 software AND the ECU for the F135. It was the right jet for Canada until Trump America demonstrated it can’t be trusted. Cancellation or reduction will have economic consequences but an unreliable ally that can cut off spares and possibly disable F-35s are worse consequences IMO.

In the NORAD context, it's by far the best airplane. TR3 is just a development problem, and is basically done in any case. There are 1100 of these things in service, and the fleet worldwide just passed 1 million flight hours, with a stellar safety record. Starting from scratch at this point will just delay the phase-out of the CF-18s even longer, and result in Canada acquiring an inferior airplane. I don't see the logic in this at all.

 

[John Fedup]

In the NORAD context, it's by far the best airplane. TR3 is just a development problem, and is basically done in any case. There are 1100 of these things in service, and the fleet worldwide just passed 1 million flight hours, with a stellar safety record. Starting from scratch at this point will just delay the phase-out of the CF-18s even longer, and result in Canada acquiring an inferior airplane. I don't see the logic in this at all.

You see logic in depending on a supplier (ally seems an overstretch now) that is willing to stab you in the back? I agree the F-35 is the only realistic option for fast IOC and although it has awesome capabilities when ready, its readiness rate hasn’t been great. Nevertheless we need jets asap but all 88, maybe not if timelines for GCAP or FCAS actually happen 2035.

 

[Sender]

I absolutely hate the way we are being treated, don't get me wrong. We cancelled a trip to NYC next week in protest, and will spend the March Break here instead. But starting up a new fighter project because of someone who will be gone in 4 years, and possibly a lame duck in 22 months, is NOT logical. If we're truly serious about building back our military capacity, we should be making fact based rational decisions, not political ones. We've had way too much of that for the past 30 years, and all it does is gets our troops inadequate kit. I agree with your earlier statement however about loss of trust, and I do believe the result of all of this is going to be closer ties with other allies, but we should have done that anyways a long time ago. This was just the kick in the ass that was needed to awaken our political masters.

 

[John Fedup]

Yep, lots of screw-ups for sure wrt defence procurement. To be clear, 40 F-35s are needed asap and if upgrades arrive and the political situation turns positive then the other 48 could follow. After that, a very hard look at all non-US kit for the army and airforce. The navy is ok, domestic building and non- US designs. Subs aren’t available from the US so they aren’t an issue.