Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
seaspear said:
Would Canada think its in its best interest to join either of the two European concerns who are in the process of getting partnerships for the development of a sixth generation fighter ?
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It might be in Canada's interest (tech transfer, workshare POV) but I am not sure it would be for any potential partners given our procurement record of late. A Euro-Canada deal would have to include some stringent purchase numbers on Canada's part. I don't see either a future Euro or Japanese jet as being cost effective compared to a US offering due to the larger numbers involved.
 
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H

hauritz

Well-Known Member
John Fedup said:
This article hypes the SH as a viable alternative to the F-35 as stealth is no longer the primary feature. From a USN perspective, the SH block 3 version is a decent addition to the USN aviation fleet but only because it will also have F-35Cs and the USMC’s F-35Bs for missions requiring Lo observability. As the RCAF will only have a single fleet of fast jets, the SH is not a viable choice. The SH will not be viable 30-35 years from now, the F-35 hopefully still will be, certainly more than a 4th + fighter..

ANALYSIS: Super Hornets find place in stealth fighter generation
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I also don't really believe that the SH is viable as a single choice. The USN supplement the SH with the EA-18G and F-35C. Also if Canada do decide on the SH it could be operating 4th gen aircraft well into the 2060s while most of its allies and potential enemies will have moved onto 6th and maybe even 7th gen technology.
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This article suggests the US won't sell F-35s if industrial off-sets are on the table thus giving junior an excuse to bail on the F-35. Any European off-sets for Canada would be minimal (especially local assembly in Quebec). The contest will be between LM and Boeing. Should Turkey be forced out of the F-35 program, LM has an additional carrot to wave in front of junior. According to a poll out today, if the election were held today, junior would no longer be PM.

Trump may have given Trudeau the excuse he needs to ditch the F-35 once and for all
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Another link detailing letters sent by the US DoD to Canada regarding the F-35 program and off-sets. This dispute will likely see the tender being delayed until after the next election. The decision will then be based on the election outcome with the Cons supporting the F-35 and the Liberals anything but the F-35. A minority government may produce something worse, no decision until another election.

U.S. threatens to pull F-35 from jet competition over industrial requirements | National Newswatch
 
Black Jack Shellac

Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
John Fedup said:
Another link detailing letters sent by the US DoD to Canada regarding the F-35 program and off-sets. This dispute will likely see the tender being delayed until after the next election. The decision will then be based on the election outcome with the Cons supporting the F-35 and the Liberals anything but the F-35. A minority government may produce something worse, no decision until another election.

U.S. threatens to pull F-35 from jet competition over industrial requirements | National Newswatch
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Yes, we were discussing this issue back around comments 1050 and 1052. I think the fix is in. LM will be eliminated as they cannot guarantee contracts for work as part of the original agreement. Boeing is eliminated due to previous misbehavior. So it is going to come down to who greases Bombardier with the most work, Saab or Airbus.

Of course this could all change as there is an election this fall, but I don't think so. I don't think the Cons (if they won) could justify sole source - not after they got politically barbecued for doing that 4 years ago, and they likely will be a minority. So they would have to kill the RFP and go out for tender again with a new RFP, thus delaying the procurement even longer - that is likely not palatable either. If they rigged the selection, then there would be a lawsuit (likely will be a lawsuit anyways).

The saga continues
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
First off the election outcome will be the prime mover. There is no way any Euro build by Bombardier will fly, short of all production being performed in Toronto which is unlikely as Bombardier wants to move away from the Downview site. Even then, the cost will negate any industrial benefits IMO. Boeing is in no way out as they can offer off-sets and the SH is more affordable operationally and per unit cost than the Typhoon. The Gripen really only has a price advantage and nothing else. The F-35 is the best choice and a properly issued RFP specifying the unique features of the F-35 which make it the best choice for the next 40 years is not bid rigging as junior and his minions would have the electorate believe. The F-35 pricing will be in the $80+ US range, certainly competitive with the block 3 SH considering its superior capabilities.

The question is, do the Cons have the balls to issue such a RFP should they form a majority government in the fall. The likely outcome is a minority which would not be good news.
 
Black Jack Shellac

Black Jack Shellac

Active Member
John Fedup said:
First off the election outcome will be the prime mover. There is no way any Euro build by Bombardier will fly, short of all production being performed in Toronto which is unlikely as Bombardier wants to move away from the Downview site. Even then, the cost will negate any industrial benefits IMO. Boeing is in no way out as they can offer off-sets and the SH is more affordable operationally and per unit cost than the Typhoon. The Gripen really only has a price advantage and nothing else. The F-35 is the best choice and a properly issued RFP specifying the unique features of the F-35 which make it the best choice for the next 40 years is not bid rigging as junior and his minions would have the electorate believe. The F-35 pricing will be in the $80+ US range, certainly competitive with the block 3 SH considering its superior capabilities.

The question is, do the Cons have the balls to issue such a RFP should they form a majority government in the fall. The likely outcome is a minority which would not be good news.
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Agreed
 
C

Calculus

Well-Known Member
A few interesting bits of information related to this latest twist.

1. The MND has stated publicly that the competition is skewed towards technical capabilities over cost and industrial offsets: U.S. government again urges Canada to acquire American fighter jets, despite Pentagon threats
So, this may be another example of our so called defence journalist corps getting it all wrong again, as they usually do.

2. Latest F35 pricing: Price Drop: Lockheed Pitches $80M F-35A to Pentagon
Note this very likely makes the F35 cheaper than the block 3 SH.

3. Airbus named number 1 defence contractor this year in Canada: CDR Names AIRBUS Canada's Top Defence Company for 2019 - Canadian Defence Review | Canadian Defence Review
I have said it before earlier in this thread, Airbus (with Typhoon) is a very strong contender.

So, the way I see it is if technical capabilities are indeed the most heavily weighted evaluation criteria, the competition will still favour F35, followed by Typhoon, SH (block 3), and Gripen. Typhoon however has the advantage of having no (or little) political baggage, an offer of local assembly, and full industrial offsets. So, realistically, this competition is between F35 (assuming the Americans don't yank it from the competition) and Typhoon.
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
There is no way the Typhoon can possibly be cost competitive against other competitors on price even if it was entirely built in Europe instead of having that corporate welfare operation in Quebec build it. Kinematic performance might be better than the SH but weapons options, IRST, and radar favour the SH. The blocks 3 upgrades offer addtional capabilities. Agree, if technical capability is the primer mover, the F-35 wins. The new $80 million price helps as well.

Junior has another $hitstorm in the making if he sticks to the industrial benefits condition in the RFP and the US then refuses to bid the F-35. His government knew the terms of the JSF program and it was the Liberals that joined Canada to it and pumped millions into the program. No industrial benefit package involving Typhoons can match the workshare involved in producing 4,000 F-35s. What Airbus business opportunities lie head for Canada when this company already faces constant whining from the established Euro partners and of course they had to agree to build some A220s in the US or Trump would have screwed them (that still might happen). Bottom line, it's the SH or F-35. Andrew Scheer should state right now that his party will cancel any junior RFP that insists on the industrial benefits thus risking Canada's investment in the JSF program.
 
King Wally

King Wally

Active Member
I find it shocking that Canada is still receiving F35 workshare? I would have yanked it by now and only offered it back once a competition was finalised. I'm sure the Japanese or South Koreans could have covered the input pretty fast if offered, and presently the Canadian gov apear to show little respect or regard for the economic boost it's bringing in now. Sometimes you have to take things away before people realise it's worth.
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I don't think it is an easy process to ramp up parts from new vendors, regardless of location. There are numerous stories about F-35 parts shortages so taking Canada out now might make the situation worse With the possibility of Turkey being kicked out of the program, it probably isn't in LM's interest to terminate Canada until the fighter RFP details are known. If the industrial benefits requirement is in the RFP, LM should beat DoD to the punch and declare an end to Canada 's further involvement.
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Another article about junior boxing himself in wrt to the fighter jet RFP. The comment about other bidders refusing to bid if the industrial benefits clause is removed from the forthcoming RFP is a possibility, mainly with the Euro contenders as this specification is there only viable card and not great one IMHO. Boeing will bid regardless in order to mend fences and you never know, P-8s and KC-46s might still be in the cards, especially the former.

REFILE-Canada seeks to address U.S. complaints about bidding process for fighter jets -source - Reuters
 
C

Calculus

Well-Known Member
I was fortunate to be able to attend CANSEC yesterday. It has been widely reported that SAAB has a full-scale mock-up of the Gripen E on display. However, what has not been reported (to my knowledge) is that Airbus also has a full-scall mock-up of Typhoon on display, with a lot of interesting literature (including a glossy brochure titled Typhoon Canada) with information about current and anticipated future operational costs and availability, achieved through continuous improvement initiatives with reduced maintenance and inspection intervals (from the current 500 hours to 750 in 2021 and beyond in 2024). They also confirmed that the Typhoon being offered to Canada will have Captor-E, upgraded cockpit, upgraded mission computers with sensor fusion, ground attack, a full training package, and full integration with American systems and weapons.

This was an impressive and comprehensive display, and shows Airbus is very committed to this competition.

I have attached a few pictures from the show.
 

Attachments

John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I can't see Typhoon ever beating out the SH. The latter's capabilities and price competitiveness combination are simply superior. Assembly of Typhoons in Quebec... I would welcome that as one of his election promises prior to the October election. Even the Russian cyber hackers couldn't save their appeaser junior from a Scheer victory were he to make that promise.

Hopefully the F-35 wins and provides the RCAF with a viable fighter for the next 30 years and Canadian aerospace workshare on over 4,000 jets.
 
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
So LM rivals don't like the changes to the tender process. Well guys, LM threatened to exit unless they got changes so maybe you should do the same and see where it gets you. A single LM bid would certainly get the program moving and better still, in the right direction.
 
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