Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) News and Discussions

[John Newman]

Not many takers for LRIP 9 and 10. BTW, that's the perception Singapore Mindef is having, and given they are considered one of the smartest buyers, I take their move as a good indication of where F-35 progress is at. Furthermore, from our own RAAF purchase and timeline, you can see where we are heading. We will only be operating 14 F-35s for a while to come after 2020-2022, before we will decide to place the big orders. Says a lot about the F-35 program isn't it. Unlike the US Marines having lost or losing their Harriers, RAAF does not need to rush to place the order having now a good sizeable fleet of Rhinos and Growlers.

Where did you get the info from that the RAAF will only be operating 14 F-35A's after 2020-2022??

Have a look at the recent Senate Committee report on the F-35 (published in October), and go have a look at the acquisition timeline (these figures were provided by Defence to the Senate committee):

Report – Parliament of Australia


See Chapter 4:

• 2 aircraft in 2014 - (cumulative total - 2)
• 8 aircraft in 2018 - (10)
• 8 aircraft in 2019 - (18)
• 15 aircraft in 2020 - (33)
• 15 aircraft in 2021 - (48)
• 15 aircraft in 2022 - (63)
• 9 aircraft in 2023 - (72)

Again, please tell me where your figure of only 14 airframes after 2020-2022 comes from? Doesn't seem to quite match the information that Defence provided to the Committee.

 

[John Fedup]

Unless LM challenges this so called interim purchase, they can forget any future F-35 acquisition from Canada. It is not only them that lose, the RCAF will end up up with jets that will have no future much past 2035 and Canadian aerospace companies will end up will zero business from the JSF program. Even if the the Conservatives form the next government, the financial hole junior is digging will leave little money for either a follow-on SH order or a small F-35 buy. By not contesting this BS, LM will send the RCAF down the same road NZ took years ago when they exited the fast jet capability.

Here's a link that LM should read.
Former military procurement chiefs slam Liberals’ fighter jet plan | National Newswatch

 

[hauritz]

Unless LM challenges this so called interim purchase, they can forget any future F-35 acquisition from Canada. It is not only them that lose, the RCAF will end up up with jets that will have no future much past 2035 and Canadian aerospace companies will end up will zero business from the JSF program. Even if the the Conservatives form the next government, the financial hole junior is digging will leave little money for either a follow-on SH order or a small F-35 buy. By not contesting this BS, LM will send the RCAF down the same road NZ took years ago when they exited the fast jet capability.

Here's a link that LM should read.
Former military procurement chiefs slam Liberals’ fighter jet plan | National Newswatch

Apparently they will be giving themselves 5 years to evaluate all of the contenders for the CF-18 replacement.

Since the Conservatives have already indicated that they want the F-35, and the Liberals have already decided to acquire the superhornet I don't see the point of this exercise. It will be a straight up competition between the F-35 and Superhornet.

Of course this will give them an excuse for continuing to defer the decision well into the distant future.

 

[John Fedup]

Apparently they will be giving themselves 5 years to evaluate all of the contenders for the CF-18 replacement.

Since the Conservatives have already indicated that they want the F-35, and the Liberals have already decided to acquire the superhornet I don't see the point of this exercise. It will be a straight up competition between the F-35 and Superhornet.

Of course this will give them an excuse for continuing to defer the decision well into the distant future.

There is no point in a competition 5 years from now, period. This is why LM must contest this NOW! The fact they don't seem to have plans to contest is very strange and troubling. This is their only chance IMHO. The cost of this interim buy will be huge regardless of which jet were to be ordered. Given junior's continuing financial mismanagement there will be minimal money available and we will be luckly to get an additional 18 let alone 45-50 additional jets in 5 years. Having 18 SHs up and running in 2020 (likely optimistic) and then trying to add 18 F-35s, how realistic is that given we would have 18 SH at FOC, pilots trained, simulators, and spares in place? Surely LM must realize this. Boeing sure as shit does.

 

[hauritz]

There is no point in a competition 5 years from now, period. This is why LM must contest this NOW! The fact they don't seem to have plans to contest is very strange and troubling. This is their only chance IMHO. The cost of this interim buy will be huge regardless of which jet were to be ordered. Given junior's continuing financial mismanagement there will be minimal money available and we will be luckly to get an additional 18 let alone 45-50 additional jets in 5 years. Having 18 SHs up and running in 2020 (likely optimistic) and then trying to add 18 F-35s, how realistic is that given we would have 18 SH at FOC, pilots trained, simulators, and spares in place? Surely LM must realize this. Boeing sure as shit does.

It certainly is a ridiculous situation.

In Australia's case it was always made clear that the F-35 was the aircraft that they wanted and that the Super Hornet was only an interim solution.

However Canada has not committed to the F-35 and have only just now decided to conduct a competition to replace the classic hornets.

The Super Hornet and all of the accompanying infrastructure will be in place ... so what chance does any other competitor have anyway?

I suspect that there will almost certainly need to be additional "interim" Super Hornets sought to cover for the remaining CF-18s, and that will effectively be the last nail in the coffin for the F-35.

In fact I will call it now ... Canada will buy an additional batch of Super Hornets and then buy ex-RAAF Rhinos around the end of the next decade.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

I agree that is a very likely end game. Good deal for Australia.

 

[t68]

It certainly is a ridiculous situation.

In Australia's case it was always made clear that the F-35 was the aircraft that they wanted and that the Super Hornet was only an interim solution.

When people bring up the Super Hornet deal here in Australia they forget they were not a replacement for the legacy Hornets but F-111, and the Growler's are not replacing anything but is a new capabilty.

In fact I will call it now ... Canada will buy an additional batch of Super Hornets and then buy ex-RAAF Rhinos around the end of the next decade.

Was hoping that they would go the Kiwis way. But that's wishfully thinking.


Wonder how the operations in ME will effect the timeline for keeping them in RAAF service with the long transits to and from the AO

 

[ADMk2]

When people bring up the Super Hornet deal here in Australia they forget they were not a replacement for the legacy Hornets but F-111, and the Growler's are not replacing anything but is a new

That isn't correct. The Super Hornets were brought to provide additional capability for the RAAF as the Government of the day didn't think that the approved replacement capability for the F-111 based strike and reconnaisance capability would adequately cover Australia's defence needs in light of the delays in the JSF program.

The approved F-111 capability replacement was F/A-18A/B Hornets upgraded under the Hornet Upgrade zprogram and fitted with JASSM standoff weapons and JDAM / Laser JDAM improved precision strike weapons, along with Litening AT targetting pods to replace the reconnaissance capability, plus a new fleet of KC-30A refuellers to extend their strike range...

That is why they are the 'Bridging Air Combat Capability' - they are literally the bridge between legacy Hornet operstions and F-35 operations and their role in addition to providing additional air combat capability in the interim, is to help familiarise RAAF with advanced AESA radar and combat systems, LO operations, handling, maintenance and security requirements and a host of other things (including networked weapon systems) that it can't learn from legacy Hornet operations, ahead of the necessity of such things with F-35 operations...

Was hoping that they would go the Kiwis way. But that's wishfully thinking.

I'd be happy with that too, but it's very wishful I think...

Wonder how the operations in ME will effect the timeline for keeping them in RAAF service with the long transit to and from the AO

The Super Hornets are not in the MEA on operations... They did the first rotation and haven't been back since. However I'm not sure that transit times fatigue the aircraft particularly, take off's, landings and high G maneuvering tend to fatigue the aircraft structure more... I suspect they would most likely be doing less of that in the MEA on their current operations than they would at home training, even if they were deployed...

 

[ngatimozart]

Was hoping that they would go the Kiwis way. But that's wishfully thinking.

Without derailing the thread if we were going to spend that amount of money we might as well wait 3 or so years and acquire F35As. There's not that much of a difference in cost if the projected F35 costs stay close to forecast.

 

[Delta204]

As I suspected...

Boeing met federal officials 7 times as often as Lockheed Martin in lead-up to fighter deal - Politics - CBC News

Plus: http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...ed-to-sign-lifetime-gag-order-on-fighter-jets


I'm not as doom and gloom as some of the others here. In fact its shenanigans like this will haunt the Liberals and work against them (hopefully) in the next election - like it did to their predecessor. So at least take comfort in that John!

I believe we are at the beginning of what will be a very long, drawn out and messy defence procurement.... wait a second...

 

[t68]

That isn't correct. The Super Hornets were brought to provide additional capability for the RAAF as the Government of the day didn't think that the approved replacement capability for the F-111 based strike and reconnaisance capability would adequately cover Australia's defence needs in light of the delays in the JSF program.

The approved F-111 capability replacement was F/A-18A/B Hornets upgraded under the Hornet Upgrade zprogram and fitted with JASSM standoff weapons and JDAM / Laser JDAM improved precision strike weapons, along with Litening AT targetting pods to replace the reconnaissance capability, plus a new fleet of KC-30A refuellers to extend their strike range...

That is why they are the 'Bridging Air Combat Capability' - they are literally the bridge between legacy Hornet operstions and F-35 operations and their role in addition to providing additional air combat capability in the interim, is to help familiarise RAAF with advanced AESA radar and combat systems, LO operations, handling, maintenance and security requirements and a host of other things (including networked weapon systems) that it can't learn from legacy Hornet operations, ahead of the necessity of such things with F-35 operations...

That's sounds very plausible for the current situation but everything I have read in both goverment and private websites flies in the face of that.

From my understanding the original intension was that JSF would replace legacy Hornet fleet from around 2010,and with strategic/ Martime strike still to be acheived with F111 until the mid 20's which would also be replaced with JSF. From what I understand is the RAAF was so against Super Hornets as they want a one aircraft fleet to reduce the logistical tail. The straw that broke the camels back from what I understand was the F111 destructive wing test's and the ever increasing set back with the JSF program if it wasn't for those two events we would never have seen F/A-18F let alone the growlers, but with hindsight it was most probably the best decision ever made.

As for the MRTT we had to replace the 707 tankers as there was concerns about noise regulations effecting the operational ability, and with the loss of range of stratigic/Martime strike with the demise of F111 AAR became of more importance, we could not have one without the other as no other aircraft fit the bill unless we bought 2nd hand B1 Lancer which was never going to happen.

 

[ADMk2]

That's sounds very plausible for the current situation but everything I have read in both goverment and private websites flies in the face of that.

From my understanding the original intension was that JSF would replace legacy Hornet fleet from around 2010,and with strategic/ Martime strike still to be acheived with F111 until the mid 20's which would also be replaced with JSF. From what I understand is the RAAF was so against Super Hornets as they want a one aircraft fleet to reduce the logistical tail. The straw that broke the camels back from what I understand was the F111 destructive wing test's and the ever increasing set back with the JSF program if it wasn't for those two events we would never have seen F/A-18F let alone the growlers, but with hindsight it was most probably the best decision ever made.

As for the MRTT we had to replace the 707 tankers as there was concerns about noise regulations effecting the operational ability, and with the loss of range of stratigic/Martime strike with the demise of F111 AAR became of more importance, we could not have one without the other as no other aircraft fit the bill unless we bought 2nd hand B1 Lancer which was never going to happen.

I'm not sure which websites you are reading, but they aren't correct. If you want to see what was planned, start with the white paper 2000.

Both the Hornet and F-111 was planned for withdrawal and replacement from 2012 (in the case of the Hornet and in between 2015 and 2020 by 'up to 25' of what would become the JSF (p.92.) in the case of F-111.

However as you correctly identified confidence in F-111's continuing capability declined in the early 2000's (the infamous wing test failure was but one of many reasons why) and the decision was made that the Hornet fleet soley with planned upgrades could replace the capability.

 

[ngatimozart]

If you want to discuss the RAAF Shornet acquisition please do so over on the RAAF rather than derailing the RCAF thread. Thanks guys.

 

[John Fedup]

I'm not as doom and gloom as some of the others here. In fact its shenanigans like this will haunt the Liberals and work against them (hopefully) in the next election - like it did to their predecessor. So at least take comfort in that John!

It's a very small comfort Delta as the next Con govt will be left with a financial sink-hole for an economy. I am still trying to figure out WTF LM is taking this lying down. This decision should be challenged!

 

[t68]

It's a very small comfort Delta as the next Con govt will be left with a financial sink-hole for an economy. I am still trying to figure out WTF LM is taking this lying down. This decision should be challenged!

They may be waiting to play their Trump card!

But seriously we don't know what's happening behind the scenes, I imagine your PM has dug hole for himself all the way to China and trying to extract himself from with out looking like a you know what, I wish politicians could just be truthful with them selfs and admit it they where wrong, it would save a lot of upheaval in the long run.


The ALP did when they keept on bang about getting F22 in place of F35, but when they came into power and saw the reality well things changed rather quick.

 

[John Fedup]

They may be waiting to play their Trump card!

Too bad it isn't likely a card worth playing. Seriously, if this buy happens, it will close the door for any future F-35 buy with 100% certainty if the Liberals are re-elected. Even if the Cons win, the money to buy a reasonable number will be small and the extra cost to support two jets....again IMHO this won't happen. A President Trump would have trouble supporting one American company over another involving a foreign sale. I can foresee some ugly political blowback if this were to occur so it isn't worth his while to step into this Canadian C-F.

The ALP did when they keept on bang about getting F22 in place of F35, but when they came into power and saw the reality well things changed rather quick.

Junior, along with his Liberal Party got elected, was advised on this stuff, and unlike the ALP, maintained his ignorant position. Furthermore, it has come out that he placed a gag order on over 250 military and government bureaucrats involved in the evaluation process for life! Hardly necessary if the evaluation process was positive on the Superhornet. Lying sack-of-$hit.:ar15

 

[ngatimozart]

Flight Global has an opinion piece Canada's F-35 participation deserves scrutiny that suggests that if Canada wants to keep the F35 contract work then it has to commit to a F35 purchase sooner rather than later. IMHO drawing out and postponing any acquisition is not going to cut it in the long term and other partners should rightfully demand that Canada either commit to an acquisition or lose all F35 related work. No ifs, buts or maybes. Time to take the kid gloves off.

 

[John Fedup]

Partners should rightfully demand that Canada either commit to an acquisition or lose all F35 related work. No ifs, buts or maybes. Time to take the kid gloves off.

Agree 100%. Furthermore, LM should demand a competition on the 18 jets to be purchased. If the government refuses, start an immediate cancellation on existing contracts and advise them they will refuse to bid on the second batch. This is no loss to LM as they have zero chance of winning if SHs are purchased.

 

[Novascotiaboy]

So with the Super Hornet to be the "interim" fighter for Canada we should focus our time on the next acquisition while we await the details of the SH buy.

FWSAR needs to get underway. Our long serving legacy Hercules and Buffalo aircraft need replacement as quickly as possible.

There are three candidates? C27J, C295 and the extreme long shot the KC390. In a previous post I stated my desire for the C295 as it will give us more bang for the buck. Both initial upfront cost and operational costs are less than that of C27J. Aircraft need to be based where the aircraft can cover the greatest area. Canada is huge. Even though we lack a base on Baffin Island I believe we should have aircraft forward deployed to Iqaluit to cover the eastern arctic and the Davis Strait. I also believe that Newfoundland should have a dedicated FWSAR capacity based with the Cormorants in Gander.

Whatever is chosen should have an AAR capability in order to lengthen the on station time.

Twenty airframes at $50 million apiece is a billion dollars just for the planes. In service support and training plus life cycle costs over the next two or three decades is beyond my math skills.

What do people think is the likely outcome? We guessed wrong about Trump and the Super Hornet so what's the odds on favourite?

 

[John Fedup]

How about a cynical analysis. Both the Federal and Quebec governments have provided questionable funding to Bombardier's C-Series. In order to pacify Boeing from launching a protest, an order is placed for Superhornets. Thus, to keep Airbus from protesting, order some C-295s. Of course the only protest so far is coming from Embraer so maybe junior should order some KC-390s.

On a serious note, I favour the C-27J. SAR is time sensitive so the C-27J's superior speed is an advantage. It has better range and cargo capacity. It's commonality with the C-130J engines, glass cockpit, and pallets are addtional advantages. All together these justify the higher price. That being said, junior will pick the cheapest plane, the C-295 even though the RCAF favours the C-27J. The RCAF brass could hardly be more pissed off with junior than they are already are.