I don't see any where that the Soryu is regarded as the most advanced submarine in the world, Quite simply there is nothing to back such a claim up and when no evidence exist's that something is the best then that does not mean it is the best. So far best as I can tell with the Soryu is the Japanese are better at keeping stuff secret then any one else.The Soryu is widely acknowledged as the most advanced conventional submarine in existance at the moment. What will be offered to us will be a far different beast to the current Soryu Class. How is a European option safer? Their is certainly a commercial risk with the German offering in so far that TKMS is looking to offload HDW at some stage in the future and then waht. We are left with an orphan submarine and serious sustainment and IP issues. The French SMX is in my view pie in the sky stuff, but gives you a glimpse of what technologies may be available in the future. All three options share risk, just the Japanese option carries less risk in my opinion.
While TKMS has expressed willingness to sell HDW in the future in no way would that affect us, We would not be left with a purely orphan submarine as system's and tech is/would be based off of current systems/tech that is being fitted to boat's today (South Korean type 214's, Future Singapore type 218's), Not to mention that such a submarine of our inclined size would suit the need's of a number of countries that cant exactly go all nuclear (India and Canada could both show interest if we bring it to maturity).
In regard's to sustainment and IP issues, How did you arrive at that? Sustaining the boat's wont be an issue as they are more likely to be built here with a greater Aussie industry involvement, And even if HDW is sold off how would that affect part's we may need from them? They won't want to sell and make a profit off there invesment?? Sustaining them wont be an issue. IP right's also is a non starter as TKMS has already stated publicly they will give us full 100% IP rights to the boat's so no matter what happens with HDW the contract still applies unless the new owner and the Federal government both agree to renegotiate.
Yes all three share risk, The French is for the time being a pie in the sky proposal but if they manage to get people in the industry veteran's of the conventional submarine market then they could bring it to fruition .
The Japanese option may or may not be best conventional submarine out there but you can't look purely at the Soryu and say yep, It works that will be fine for us. It isn't the Soryu we are getting, We are getting the future evolution of the Soryu for which we know even less about then the Soryu. Combine that with Japan's non existent export of military hardware, and the rocky situation that the politics sit's on in regard to that and that also makes the Japanese option one of the riskiest. They have given no indication on supporting our need for full IP right's and what are we to do if they reinstate the ban on weapon's export's? We would be buggered.
The type 216 does have it's risk's and perhaps may not be the best submarine on the market but the design risk's with this and the future Soryu replacement are largely the same, What isn't a risk is being able to import/build these submarine in Australia as Germany has a good history with that and the best when it comes to Submarine export's. Being given 100% IP right's also protect's us from future changes abroad be the business or political in nature. The German option in regard's to the export history and the IP right's is actually the safest option.