It will be interesting to see if Australia gets slapped down over the F-22's now that the Def Min has committed to requesting a change of law from Congress. It will certainly be something I think
dp from prev comments I've made: I apologise for merging this together from other comments, but I'm sick to death of retyping!
I'd be betting that the answer given to Smith about unavailability resulted in a quiet exhale... it covers their butts at a number of levels.
Don't get me wrong, I don't object to the plane in RAAF roundels, I just happen to think that the quality of debate has been dumbed down to a pimply faced 15 yo boys level of enthusiasm. A fed govt that is looking at thinning expenditure (even though Defence has been embargoed) will not want to invite a secondary logistics burden into forward estimates for the next 35 years. On top of the fact that there is a spectacular failure on the part of the "clown club"/"conflict of interest clubs" to competently articulate why they are so necessary to our military well being.
The JSF has a better upgrade path etc and it fulfills our core requirements. There is a reason why we ran away from the Mirage 111OA and Mirage 111OF mentality.
Smith will be counting his blessings at being publicly offered the get out of gaol card....
On top of which I would add, the problem in australia is that the gee whiz brigade are unable to look at this outside of the "its sexy, its the best, and we have to have it"
this is way beyond a simple military retail event.... the complexity of what else is involved has swept straight past the broadsheet press and baskervillian lobby set....
and as I've prev said, this is a political gordian knot for the US. If Oz gets a bite then they immediately have their other 2 major allies of interest jumping up and down (Japan and Sth Korea). Either one of those becomes a nightmare as well.
The US is then placed in the position of releasing the platform not just to Oz, but then to 2 other significant allies of importance (as they can't do one or the other in case they pi$$ either one off) Sth Korea and Japan are closer to Taiwan developments than Aust will be.
They then face the issue of getting production levels up for 3 allies ahead of potential extended orders for USAF. It then becomes a "who's on first?" scenario.
Again, I would suggest that if anyone thinks that this is easy then they start to add up the sequences.
As for future guessing against a US change of Govt. What Smith needs to understand is that Obey is a Democrat - with substantial influence (hence why the Amendment got legs in the first place). A change of US Govt won't make it any more likely. Our best chance if we were ever to try and influence was under the Republicans, and yet they were handcuffed via Congress through Obey.
We already had Ashmore (R) get a job change when he suggested at the DPC in 2004 that the US would look favourably on an Australian request where need was compelling. In political terms he was kicked up the freckle as he had a job change soon after. In addition, where is the compelling need?
Thats why I get brassed off with these dances around the May Pole debates about the F-22. Its far more complex than just a sale to Australia. It becomes a geo-political issue immediately for the US. Its a Catch 22 as well, there are some in Congress who are vehemently opposed to the US selling off any Tier one battle changer like the F-22 when they have done all the hard investment and development yards. Selling it from the car yard to foreign buyers is seen as offensive to the US taxpayer. (Aegis as a contrarian example is 30 years old, and if you really stretch it out is legacied from 45 years ago, so its not exactly jewel in the crown in comparison).
We need to move beyond dumbed down debate where we think that we have the right to buy it just because we're good mates etc....
Governments, local politics, international politics etc... are far more complex. What is a simple military retail event for Oz is actually a political gordian knot for the US.
My sense of it is that Smith has been given a face saving exercise to engage in.