All this is very well, but where are you going to get the money from?
For the LHD the original JP 2048 Phase 4C that was originally funded for ~$1 billion. Now with JP3030, and where that money went I have no idea. But if Ausgov want an immediate ship for this kind of role then some additional funds would need to be made available, given the current expanding Australian economy that isn't an impossibility. However, Choules isn't going to live forever, it will be replaced, so if you think about moving that replacement forward, there would be some additional funds would be need to be made available. Savings in training and operations and operating costs would be further enhanced with 3 of a class instead of 2 + 1. Additional crew from the not replaced Balkipapan LCH x6 would be ideal for a new Amphib.
DFAT picks up the operating costs of Choules as a humanitarian ship. Doable, DFAT has had its own disasters regarding big projects. Many are in limbo. Choules can help fill the gap until they are complete. You also need a non-military presence. Choules can be DFAT's floating roadshow, focusing on civilian aspects where military vessels are not appropriate.
Instead of supporting and upgrading an orphan platform like Choules, a new LHD would simply utilize the same upgrades as the other LHD's.
So you are probably 90% their on theoretical crewing, and actual platform procurement you are probably looking at more like <$500m. Money, but not impossible amounts. Of course this is on the presumption things that are no long there haven't already been gobbled up by something else. DFAT is apparently focusing most of their assistance on the South Pacific and less on wider global aid (africa, mid east, south america). So some money will come from prioritising.
But you have a tremendous gain in capability. 3 full LHD's. If we are talking about projecting power throughout our region, the acquisition of another strategic projection ship (borrowing the Spanish name) would be core to that. I think we would have to moderate our view of the replacement of LCH to fewer (say 2) and not particularly massive. The third LHD I would think really wouldn't need a whole bunch of new landing craft, we can manage with what we already have from the LHD pool of landing craft and there are new acquisitions in that pipe anyway. The USMC could then embark more personnel and assets, as could other allies. We then really become the key facilitators for the region.
With 3 we can be a lot more active in our projection, and have a lot more active presence across the regions. The LHD's are powerful symbols of regional power. When they do turn up, people notice, leaders notice, and it sends a clear signal about Australia's commitment and capability. We can fill it with Australian army, USMC, NZ, UK, French, Singapore, experts, and make them feel part of a much larger team, but in a way that isn't overbearing or outside of what they are comfortable with. With a third LHD your getting at least 50% more presence and projection. Plus your lifting off the purely humanitarian/DFAT role off the LHDs and supporting that in a much more appropriate and focused way.
With 3 LHD's the full ARG would then have space for some of our smaller allies to participate. Which is super important. If we ever go into to PNG/Fiji/Samoa, you want some of the first people on the ground being other members of pacific island nations. That is absolutely critical. Optics, strategy, diplomatically etc. Plus its no secret, the military in a lot of nations have been historically involved in coups, so really franchising them in closer with us is of paramount importance. Look at how badly we dropped the ball when Timor when shopping for actual real military assistance. Do we really want to force countries like Timor to go to China, out of desperation, for assistance, support and training? When things go south where do you think they will go for advice and support. We are losing generations of key people.
Currently every time someone in the region tries to pull a big amphib operation off it has been compromised, even the Americans were left stranded at Rimpac, and the Brazilians literally got up and left that day, and it didn't exactly smooth over anxieties about commitment and capability. We can no longer rely on powerful friends, the world is now to complicated for that simplistic thinking.
But I know that what I am suggesting is probably not likely. We will, as we often do, aim low, and struggle to meet that. Underestimate the situation we are in and struggle to make it a priority. A 3rd LHD could be built and fitted out pretty quickly, we have done that. A new build of something we don't currently operation seems like a pain in the arse. We would be better off hassling the motherland (or spain) and grab sister for Choules from existing stock.
