Of course a lot of this also depends on how seriously we view the security of this region in the 2030s.
At the moment 2030 is lot further off than the next federal election so naturally the politicians from both sides are more interested in winning votes in South Australia and West Australia than they are in dealing with threats on the other side of the wall (GOT reference)
If we are seriously looking at the 2030s as being a potentially turbulent period then we should be arming ourselves as quickly as possible.
As things stand we are facing a potential capability gap with our submarines during the 2030s.
Yes I feel submarine availability and numbers will be an interesting dance late next decade.
Also interested as to when we can say we have 7 subs and then keep counting.....2030's?
For the immediate future I do have reservations as to available numbers of our surface fleet for the next decade.
I certainly see some challenges ahead.
I feel China's posturing will be commensurate with the modernisation of her fleet.
This fleet expansion in both numbers and quality of vessels is only going to give confidence to the Chinese governments increasing global robustness, particularly in the Indo / Pacific sphere.
Now this does not necessarily mean they are the bad guys but they are the big guys on move and my concern is that their naval growth will alter the military balance very quickly and thus lead to increasing uncertainty in the region.
The 2030's is a concern but I'd suggest the early 2020's will see a lot more use of Chinese soft power backed up by an increasingly aggressive Chinese coast guard force to get there way in the South China Sea.
Supported by an increasingly global navy this is a challenge for all in the region.
At some point the west will be forced to either confront or back down.
This is dangerous stuff.
Now I don't advocate a position one way or the other but we will be forced to make hard choices at some stage and I'd suggest that will be in the early 2020's not the following decade.
For our navy time may not be on our side as we transition to our new bigger fleet.
Suggest Navy starts building up crew numbers now and looks at how to employ some of our retiring ships for future service. We don't need another dive wreck!.
2 x FFG's, ANZAC's, Sirius all still have something to give.......!
If we have to make hard political choices then better to have some strength to back them up.
Time will tell if China has out played everyone with the South China Sea.
If so, is it in our interests for such dominance to occur south of the equator.
Chinese surveillance ships in our region will be an increasing norm.
I trust in the future they don't bring some of there PLAN friends.
Regards S