Reading this thread as someone not as knowledgeable as most (possibly any) of you, I am trying to get my head around what the dilemmas are here for Australia in regard to our surface fleet (such as it is). It seems to me that there is a drive to have more warships, but there is real concern that the number we have will actually fall long before it gets better.
My understanding being that we don't expect the first Hunter to be commissioned now until 2032 at the earliest, and that they will then be delivered two years apart. But Anzac herself will be 36 years old in 2032, and by the time the eighth Hunter is delivered in 2046 (at that rate of one every two years) the youngest Anzac, Perth, would have been in commission for 40 years.
I understand that there are doubts the Anzacs will last, in spite of their upgrade program, and there are crewing challenges, and speculation now too that the Hunters are to be cut to six ships, and that we then might go for an AAW version for the last three, and/or that we might get another class in the nearer term to deliver a larger fleet sooner, with tier 1 and tier 2 warships being discussed too. Most of it is speculation I guess.
I can see the logic in acquiring another class of warship sooner - like ASAP - maybe even built overseas to both ensure our existing fleet doesn't diminish in size and to instead try to grow the numbers.
Ideally, but also realistically though, what are we looking at? Could we get four ships ordered and delivered on a similar-ish schedule to the Hunters, preferably sped up to one every 18 months, so that we could replace the Anzacs one for one by, say, the end of 2037? Then the fifth and sixth Hunters would be extras, taking the force to 13 ships, and next an AAW version or a whole new class of maybe six could take us to 16, with the last three of those replacing the Hobarts from 2047 (when Hobart herself will be 30 years old)?
Is building an extra class - basically an interim frigate or maybe something more capable - and quickly the only way to guarantee our existing numbers and build up the surface force sooner? If so, is it feasible to build it here or is it best to look overseas? I'm really interested in the bigger picture thoughts here. Hope I'm making sense.
And just for a very left-field thought, could we be interested in looking to a country like Finland which is building a class of four corvettes (really light frigates) that will hit the water at a rate of one a year through to 2031? Only came across that program because it is the same shipyard that is building the new Spirit of Tasmania ferries.