Raises some interesting points. Clearly it is written from a diplomatic perspective. I would argue that we are probably already in too deep with the US to change course now. Pine Gap and other facilities shared with the US have already made us a military target. If a war were to break out between the US and China it would probably just be a matter of time before these facilities were attacked.To try to get a better idea of the debate over strategic issues motivating AUKUS, I have been reading a new book out by Lowy Institute defence analyst Sam Roggeveen, formerly of the ONA. So far I am finding it well written and acknowledging the reality and seriousness of rising Chinese naval power, and the need to rethink Australian defence in light of it.
Roggeveen is in favour of increased spending on naval defence and mines and submarines specifically. However he criticises the logic behind AUKUS and value in SSNs, and so far as I have read he is arguing for a more self reliant posture for Australia. This review by former FM Gareth Evans gives a useful summary, and there are some podcasts where he sets out his thinking.
A compelling voice for rethinking Australia’s national security | Lowy Institute
Sam Roggeveen’s Echidna Strategy rightly challenges Australia to act as a diplomatic powerhouse, not a military one.www.lowyinstitute.org
I do actually agree that the west might well be misinterpreting China’s motives. Personally I believe China’s real intent isn’t to invade Taiwan but more to drive America out of the region. With America gone that leaves them free to do whatever they like.
The strategy they are using is a simple one. Just build as many ships, aircraft and missiles as possible. At some point the US will just realise they can’t match that capability and just walk away. With America out of the picture China’s neighbours will become far more compliant. Unification with Taiwan and complete control of the region will follow.
I think as we continue to move more into a multipolar world things will become a lot more complex for Australia. Not only do we need to deal with a more powerful China but also a rising Indonesia and India.
Being friends with the world’s only superpower has been extremely beneficial to Australia but we will soon find ourselves as the small kid in a schoolyard full of bullies.