Serious question - what are the constraints driving the 2028 deadline for more surface fleet warships? Does this relate to overlapping retirement dates for some ships and long term maintenance for others? How many hulls out of the water are we looking at?
There are no real retirements its likely nothing important gets retired for 20 years. Its the upgrades and life extensions.
- Collins gets their LOTE $6 billion upgrade
- Hobarts get their $6b upgrade
- Anzacs get their life extension and upgrade. Originally they were to be decommissioning by now, but now have to live onto ~2045? So just Phase1 of sea5014 is over $600m. This is the smallest, quickest, and least riskiest upgrade, but its on a old, already very upgraded platform, that has always had growth margin issues. Even when it comes out, its not exactly ideal for a peer war with China.
- LHD also have some work required
- AOR also have some work required
With the Hobarts, there are only three, so if you do any serious upgrade work then you loose deployable capability. That is the problem when you only build 3 of something. We knew this at the time. And we knew the AEGIS system and radar was already twighlighted before we even put them in.
The F-35 blk IV program will also result in reduced aircraft viability while its on going. Until it happens, the F-35 as a strike platform, particularly a maritime strike platform against a peer is pretty limited.
The adf helicopters other than Chinook/romeos all have big question marks on them.
There are multiple issues, in multiple areas. Some are Australian based, some are due to politicians, some are due to age of platforms, some are due to RAN, some are combination, some are ADF, some are due to global projects and US programs.
Huge issue going forward. But then again, not having any ships in the water doesn't exactly solve that problem either. Sure we don't need any crew if we don't have ships, but Australia needs a navy.. Not having a Navy doesn't solve capability needs.
We also aren't the only ones having issues either. The US will have no cruisers by 2027, effectively they are all broken now. The US fleet will be upgrading existing burkes to block 3, and retiring older blocks. The US has a massive submarine backlog of work, and of naval work in general.
Expecting someone else to flying and solve our problems is also farfetched. The UK has their issues, EU has their own threats, Asian allies may have more capability than Australia, but face much greater threats.
It is very much the time to grab onto some options, even if they aren't ideal.
Particularly given China's own pressures and needs that sees 2027-2028 likely to be peak China, before their economy starts shrinking and they end up tied down in their own dramas. Their best window to invade Taiwan will close for the next ~50 years. 2028 will see another US election. Even if US and China avoid war, they will still exist in 2028, competitive tension is likely to make the world unstable.
A confluence of factors.
seapowermagazine.org
