Firstly, I am no expert, just an average military enthusiast
Whilst the F-18F is a decent aircraft, I am not entirely sure it is the best option for the long-range precision strike role currently occupied by the F-111.
Whilst the F-22 would be an ideal option; I am not sure it is entirely realistic (both politically and economically).
I would like to see the RAAF consider a version of the F-15 Strike Eagle. It has proven high-quality, long-range precision attack capability, can carry a substantial payload and has extensive, proven combat experience with multiple operators. Additionally new build aircraft are currently being built with advanced systems for Singapore (F-15SG (12 aircraft)) and South Korea (F-15K (40 aircraft)), plus the USAF use over 220 F-15E almost exclusively for close-air support. With the F-15E, the USAF already use operationally all the precision guided munitions which the RAAF would likely use including the JDAM, JSOW, WCMD and SBD. Australia could leverage this current production along with the latest aircraft systems and have a version tailored to meet the RAAFs specific needs.
With the serious delays and cost over-runs experienced by the F-35. Perhaps the F-18F purchase could continue, but instead of replacing F-111s, replace 24 of the existing F-18s (which require extensive upgrades). This would significantly upgrade our current capabilities and ensure there is no substantial capability gap should the JSF project experience further delays or additional costs. The RAAF would have a reliable MOTS (Military Off The Shelf) option until the JSF is operational in substantial numbers.
So er, they should operate 3 fast jet types in small numbers simultaneously?
The SH won't be cancelled until the Government reviews the decision in May this year. The current cancellation cost is $400m and is increasing at $100m per month. By May, depending on how long Government take to make a decision, the penalty could be as high as $700m.
$700m to achieve absolutely nothing. Then RAAF have to turn around and place a new order for F-15 aircraft. (I'm sure that would go down well in Australia given the current "problems" with Defence acquisitions and the F-15's crashing everywhere, I KNOW they don't relate to the "E" model we'd purchase but media and the public wouldn't differentiate).
We would then operate an F-15 model, different to that operated by the USAF and we'd lose most of the commonality benefits of operating the same type, to gain an aircraft that provides only a little more performance and a little more range and a little more payload. The SH arguably has the superior avionics and sensor capabilities which are truly important in modern warfare and are obviously far easier for current Hornet pilots to convert onto than Eagles.
Not a great deal of difference there, but cost is massively different with Singapores F-15SG's costing about $30m more per aircraft than our Super Hornets.
Taking this path would cost about $720m more than the current SH purchase, which would in effect equate to $1.42b more than the SH, for the same number of aircraft, factoring in the cancellation penalty for the Super Hornet...
We could not plug into the USAF support system to the same degree as we can with the USN support system, because our F-15 variants would be rather different to USAF spec. Our SH's are "off the shelf" for all intents and purposes (some carrier landing equipment has been replaced with land based landing equipment) and the Super Hornet is currently in the middle of a 450 odd aircraft production run, which is ahead of schedule and USN have given up airframes to allow us early access to the aircraft.
The same is not true of the F-15, with only relatively small orders for Korea and Singapore sustaining it's production line. I can't see either of those Countries giving up their production slots for us, given the small size of their orders. In my opinion any F-15's we'd choose would not be delivered until the current production runs are completed, so we wouldn't see an F-15 variant in RAAF service before 2012, meaning the F-111 would have to be extended and thus the F-15 acquisition would defeat it's primary purpose anyway...
I'm not so sure the F-15 is the aircraft for us, when you consider these things...
The F-22 is not a replacement for the F-111. It doesn't have the range either and it doesn't have the weapons or sensor capabilities to do so.
It doesn't have a maritime strike capability with an ASM like the Hornets, Supuer Hornets and F-111 do, yet this is one of our most important requirements for our air combat capability.
It would also require us to acquire and introduce the small diameter bomb at a time when we already have extensive weapon system integration tasks underway (JDAM, JASSM, Litening AT) because that's the only weapon it has for A2G operations that provides significant standoff range.
Without that weapon it can only employ bog-stock JDAM's at limited standoff range (20-25k's) which means it's only useful for attacking fixed targets within medium GBAD range...
Not much of a strike replacement in my opinion and one that is clearly inferior to the strike capability that the Super Hornet will provide...
In relation to those weapons you mentioend, I don't think RAAF will be using WCMD on any of it's aircraft, but all those other weapons will be employed, and indeed JDAM and JSOW have already been ordered for the Super Hornet, and (in the case of the JSOW) hopefully for the legacy Hornet in years to come.
