Arguably, additional deliveries beyond the currently last planned F-35A (of 72) in 2023 should be about reasonable, viable, and timely expansion of the Joint Force’s Air Capability.
The Super Hornets and derivative Growlers will have a part to play for a long while yet given both new and in development weapons are being specified for their use.
As per budget projections, the RAAF is both set to and budgeted to grow by well over 1,000 personnel between now and 2025/26.
Like with the Navy, we’ve got to ditch our force structure ideology based upon a population many millions lower than that of today - and with many millions more come the mid 2030s.
It could all go many ways.
Realistically it will probably not stray too much from the original plan.
Block four and the time table of it's roll out to international customers may be a strong influence on the longevity of the S Hornet / Growler fleet.
If delayed some consideration may be given to whats over the horizon.
If not suspect, I would suspect more F35's down the track.
Maybe late 20's. Maybe mid 30's! The Hornets have enough life to give us both options
Part of the conversation will also be the manned / unmanned mix.
Will the later be a compliment or a replacement for current platforms.
This will evolve.
Another consideration will be the lessons from the on going Ukraine / Russia conflict.
Realistically what does this mean for our geography and way of conducting business.
Also we have to pay for our aspirations.
There are budgets for what is planned for around the corner, but when you add in some delays and change in direction across the services then we start robbing Peter to pay for Paul .
Inevitably something has to give.
What ever the outcome, no doubt clever people up high on the RAAF ladder are constantly juggling the what ifs for both now and the immediate future.
We however are not privy to such conversations, so we do the next best thing.
Speculate!
Cheers S