RAAF Stopgap air plan is 'dumb'

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abramsteve

New Member
Occum said:
This is a very good argument for Australia buying the Raptor, don't you think?

Back on topic. Looks like the RAAF are seeking updates on proposals for interim fighter solution - the RAAF stopgap air plan. Word is that Tornado and Super Bug are in the mix, with the F-15 sitting in the background.
Interesting. Whilst I would prefer the Super Hornet over the Tornado any day, I did at one stage wonder why the Tornado wasnt chosen as a replacement for the F-111. I dont know about the range or payload differences?

I do like the idea of a 20/60 mix F-35/F-22. Just a question though, what was the issue with tanking? Aren't we purchasing 5 new tankers?
 

Big-E

Banned Member
abramsteve said:
I do like the idea of a 20/60 mix F-35/F-22. Just a question though, what was the issue with tanking? Aren't we purchasing 5 new tankers?
As wonderful as this sounds where do we expect the money to come from? No way is AU going to be able to fork over the extra billions for the F-22s. Add to that there really isn't an operational requirement for them. JSF will be more than a match for any threats she will face. AU acquiring F-22s is like using a diamond encrusted Rolex to tell you what time it is when your 9.99 K-mart brand does the samejob.:lol2
 

abramsteve

New Member
Big-E said:
As wonderful as this sounds where do we expect the money to come from? No way is AU going to be able to fork over the extra billions for the F-22s. Add to that there really isn't an operational requirement for them. JSF will be more than a match for any threats she will face. AU acquiring F-22s is like using a diamond encrusted Rolex to tell you what time it is when your 9.99 K-mart brand does the samejob.:lol2
I understand what your saying, and if purchasing F-22s would stretch the budget to the point where it was useless for anything else then I agree with you completely. I also know that there is little to no chance that we could afford them, but as Ive said before, why settle for less when you can have more? ;)

Anyways realisticaly when it comes to defence procurements, I think the universal language of the past decade has been 'its not the best, but it will do becuase it fits the budget'

What are your thoughts, though, of the Tornado? Mainly as a replacement strike aircraft. It an aircraft thats been around for a while now, but is realy little heard of...
 

Big-E

Banned Member
abramsteve said:
What are your thoughts, though, of the Tornado? Mainly as a replacement strike aircraft. It an aircraft thats been around for a while now, but is realy little heard of...
She's a good aircraft that is comming to the end of her service life. I believe they have stopped exports if I'm not mistaken... I may be wrong but they might have to buy them used.


We discussed the concept of bringing in F-14s to replace the F-111s earlier in the thread and the consenus was the cost of training the crews, maintanence, and transition would not be worth the effort which is why I came to the opinion of saving your procurement funds for JSF. Same goes for the Tornado. You might as well upgrade the F-111s.:rolleyes:
 

abramsteve

New Member
Cheers for that.

The days of us buying second hand are hopefully over (especially with the Seasprite drama) and as you said the cost of training and transitioning, coupled with second hand planes just wouldnt be worth it. Upgrading the F-111s seems to be a touchy subject, but at least 2010 gives me 4 more years to watch them fly!

I love the Super Hornet, but I dont want to see us falling behind again in 10-15 years becuase of budgets. The Hornets we have have a few years left in em... I think you may have swung me towards saving money for JSF procurements. :)
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Big-E said:
She's a good aircraft that is comming to the end of her service life. I believe they have stopped exports if I'm not mistaken... I may be wrong but they might have to buy them used.
Correct. Tornado production ended in the last millennium.

The RAF's trialling an AESA replacement for the radar on the IDS Tornados, which suggests by the time the GR.4 retires, those airframes will be geriatric. The ADV airframes are, apparently, in such a state that there's not much chance of anyone wanting to buy them when Typhoon replaces them. Italy & Saudi Arabia are upgrading IDS Tornados to keep 'em running longer. The Germans haven't even decided how to replace all theirs yet.

It doesn't seem very likely that any would be available for sale.
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Tanking Off Load

abramsteve said:
............. Just a question though, what was the issue with tanking? Aren't we purchasing 5 new tankers?

True, but 5 tankers is really a training capability, not an operational capability. For medium size tankers like the MRTTs, the rule of thumb for this off load capability is one tanker for four fighters. If you work the numbers for the different scenarios, that's not a lot of aircraft in the air and the JSF is not being designed for Lone Ranger tasks with the norm being 4 shipset sorties. However, the more concerning point is the risk, with tanking being a single point failure in this type of force structure. Kind of like putting all your eggs in one basket. Without tanking, you can't go far or carry much.

To overcome the above and mitigate the risks, the requirement becomes somewhat paradoxical: more tankers with less dependency, or rather, without full dependency on tankers. There's the challenge.

:)
 
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Aussie Digger

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Occum said:
True, but 5 tankers is really a training capability, not an operational capability. For medium size tankers like the MRTTs, the rule of thumb for this off load capability is one tanker for four fighters. If you work the numbers for the different scenarios, that's not a lot of aircraft in the air and the JSF is not being designed for Lone Ranger tasks with the norm being 4 shipset sorties. However, the more concerning point is the risk, with tanking being a single point failure in this type of force structure. Kind of like putting all your eggs in one basket. Without tanking, you can't go far or carry much.

To overcome the above and mitigate the risks, the requirement becomes somewhat paradoxical: more tankers with less dependency, or rather, without full dependency on tankers. There's the challenge.

:)
Agree completely, however even moreso than the fighter issue, RAAF is hamstrung by available funding when it comes to the number of MRTT's it operates.

The 5x A-330's will at least be an improvement over the B-707's and there has been a rumour around the traps that RAAF may acquire 3 or so additional (ex-Qantas A330's) in years to come. There are also rumours that the additional C-130J purchase (if it goes ahead) will come as KC-130J's to provide a boost for our A2A refuelling capability, particularly for Army helo's, though no doubt useful for our Hornet/JSF fleet as well...

IF either of these were to be acquired it would provide a more useful capability, but I think RAAF is resigned to a limited A2A refuelling capability for it's forseeable future...

As to the interim fighter, I think Tornado's would be a complete waste of money. Block II SH's would be FAR easier aircraft to integrate into RAAF, would arguably provide greater capability (particularly if they came with APG-79 AESA's) with their A2G AND A2A capabilities (both of which exceed legacy Hornets).

Tornado's would simply introduce another ancient fighter/bomber with basically the same support requirements as the F-111, but without the infra-structure already in place.

They would not provide a significant enough enhancement in capability over our HUG BUG's to justify the cost IMHO. SH's would because they could replace a significant number of HUG BUG's in every role and save the money needed to be spent on the CB replacement...
 

cherry

Banned Member
What are the chances of the existing 12 x C-130J being converted to the tanking role in addition to a possible purchase of approx. x 6 additional C-130J?
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Couple of questions to think about.

Ever tanked a high performance jet behind a slow mover?

What happens to flexibility in operations the more the refueller and receiver speed and altitude performance vary?
 

Big-E

Banned Member
Occum said:
Couple of questions to think about.

Ever tanked a high performance jet behind a slow mover?

What happens to flexibility in operations the more the refueller and receiver speed and altitude performance vary?
Tanking behind a KC-130J isn't an issue of speed, they are plenty fast enough. I have been training the Marines here at MCAS Beaufort to hook up to these very Texacos. It's true they have to throttle up to get a good lead on your Hornet but it isn't an issue of performance and they can ceiling at over 30k feet which is tanking altitude anyway.
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
No one is saying it can't be done but look at the relative AOAs in your thumbnail. By the way, how do the the max range and max endurance cruise speeds compare? Can the KC-130Js accompany the flight for cruise climb top up or are you limited to RRPs?
 
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Aussie Digger

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cherry said:
What are the chances of the existing 12 x C-130J being converted to the tanking role in addition to a possible purchase of approx. x 6 additional C-130J?
Slim to nil I fear. Even the reports of additional C-130J's or A330's being purchased are mere rumour and speculation. Options such as equipping either of them for AAR duties is further to that.

Once the DCP is released over the next few days, we might have some more concrete evidence.

Occum, surely you would concur that AAR equipped C-130J's are better than nothing? A fleet of 16-18 LARGE AAR's to equip RAAF with a proper operational tanking fleet would be nice, but it's "pie in the sky" stuff and it's NEVER going to happen, short of a major deterioration in our strategic situation.

Britain is having trouble affording such a large fleet and has a budget many times ours...
 

Whiskyjack

Honorary Moderator / Defense Professional / Analys
Verified Defense Pro
Aussie Digger said:
Slim to nil I fear. Even the reports of additional C-130J's or A330's being purchased are mere rumour and speculation. Options such as equipping either of them for AAR duties is further to that.

Once the DCP is released over the next few days, we might have some more concrete evidence.

Occum, surely you would concur that AAR equipped C-130J's are better than nothing? A fleet of 16-18 LARGE AAR's to equip RAAF with a proper operational tanking fleet would be nice, but it's "pie in the sky" stuff and it's NEVER going to happen, short of a major deterioration in our strategic situation.

Britain is having trouble affording such a large fleet and has a budget many times ours...
Even RAF will only get 9 available tankers with another 4-5 available in an emergency. Comparable to RAAF in many regards.
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
Innovate rather than Obfuscate

Aussie Digger said:
Occum, surely you would concur that AAR equipped C-130J's are better than nothing? A fleet of 16-18 LARGE AAR's to equip RAAF with a proper operational tanking fleet would be nice, but it's "pie in the sky" stuff and it's NEVER going to happen, short of a major deterioration in our strategic situation.

How much do you reckon the commercial airline based tankers being recommended by the RAND report on USAF Tanker Fleet Re-Capitalisation (and others before them) would cost in terms of (1) capital and (2) operational costs?

There seems to be a lot of speculation and obfuscation but not a lot of analysis based estimation and calculation.

Sure, even a constrained capability is better than none but why make such decisions based on perception and rumour. Look at the hard numbers first and what can be done and how to do it, rather than give up and accept a far lesser capability than what could be achieved with some good old Aussie know how and innovative thinking.

:)
 

WaterBoy

New Member
On paper, the idea of 'second hand' airliners for conversion looks economically effective, but most of these aircraft are second hand for a reason. Improper maintenance procedures, corrosion around galleys & high airframe cycles generally lead to much higher acquisition & operating costs than previously projected. The main reason airlines opt for 'second hand' aircraft isn't the economics, it's the immediate availability of extra capacity that they offer.

:)
 

Occum

Defense Professional
Verified Defense Pro
WaterBoy said:
On paper, the idea of 'second hand' airliners for conversion looks economically effective, but most of these aircraft are second hand for a reason. Improper maintenance procedures, corrosion around galleys & high airframe cycles generally lead to much higher acquisition & operating costs than previously projected. The main reason airlines opt for 'second hand' aircraft isn't the economics, it's the immediate availability of extra capacity that they offer.

:)
Some good points here, so let's continue.

There are other reasons why 'pre-loved' aircraft come onto the market and these include fleet upgrades, economic downturn, right through to Chapter 11 arisings and, either, the resulting restructure activities or collapse.

One would not go for high cycle airframes. For instance, there are a number of low hour B747-400s around that are up for sale and coming up for sale. Just how long they remain available will depend on which direction the USAF fleet re-capitalisation takes.

Proper due diligence on purchase weeds out candidates with checkered maintanance histories.

Repair and refurbishing such things as galley areas during the major that would done as part of the cargo/refueller conversion would not be onerous or expensive. This is pretty standard stuff when all said and done. Again, proper due diligence on purchase can mitigate even this risk, particularly when the purchaser has significant buying power and is prepared to be selective.

An important consideration is that the aircraft is being taken from the high utilisation environment of commerical ops for which it is designed into a low utilisation environment. A maintenance schedule and ageing aircraft program that reflects this can generate significant returns in terms of preparadness and cost effectiveness.

Anyone know the latest price for cargo conversions of B747s (including aircraft)?

:)
 

WaterBoy

New Member
About a third the price of a new build B747-400F. For that very reason there is currently a high demand for B744's to be converted into freighters. In asia, Cathay Pacific, Dragonair & MAS Cargo are actively acquiring airframes, & in Dragonairs' case, are even prepared to source airframes with different engine suppliers. Qantas even attempted to acquire some airframes for conversion when it was considering a freight subsidiary. (despite being 'stung' by ex MAS aircraft before)

The demand for the B747 as a freighter is substantial, with the B747-400F & upcoming B747-800F being the heavyweight lifters of freight flying. As a further indication of this demand, the only order for the B747-800 is as a freighter, & the A380F is already on order for early delivery in 2009 with FEDEX & UPS.

Admittedly B747's do tend to have lower life cycles than most airliners so there is some economic advantage to their conversion. This combined with the current fuel prices has operators of B747 'classic' freighters are very keen to replace these airframes. Without substantial avionics upgrades these older jumbos are facing substantial airspace & noise restrictions worldwide.

The B747 as a refueller seems a massive overkill, with substantial operating restrictions & operational costs. Most of the RAAF bases have pavement restrictions limiting B747's to significantly less than their maximum weights. Generally, B747's burn 8-10 tons of fuel per hour, verses an A330 which burns 4-5 tons per hour.

The other argument concerning engine reliability & twins really isn't relevant. The inflight failure rate of modern turbofan engines is astoundingly low. Combined with continual engine parameter & trend monitoring unanticipated component failures rarely occur. Even if this were to occur, an A330 at maximum weight will still climb to ~FL150, or 'drift down' to FL240 at 300kts. I agree to RAAF should consider more AAR capability, I just don't think old B744's are the best or most cost effective option.

Regards,

WaterBoy :)
 
A

Aussie Digger

Guest
WaterBoy said:
About a third the price of a new build B747-400F. For that very reason there is currently a high demand for B744's to be converted into freighters. In asia, Cathay Pacific, Dragonair & MAS Cargo are actively acquiring airframes, & in Dragonairs' case, are even prepared to source airframes with different engine suppliers. Qantas even attempted to acquire some airframes for conversion when it was considering a freight subsidiary. (despite being 'stung' by ex MAS aircraft before)

The demand for the B747 as a freighter is substantial, with the B747-400F & upcoming B747-800F being the heavyweight lifters of freight flying. As a further indication of this demand, the only order for the B747-800 is as a freighter, & the A380F is already on order for early delivery in 2009 with FEDEX & UPS.

Admittedly B747's do tend to have lower life cycles than most airliners so there is some economic advantage to their conversion. This combined with the current fuel prices has operators of B747 'classic' freighters are very keen to replace these airframes. Without substantial avionics upgrades these older jumbos are facing substantial airspace & noise restrictions worldwide.

The B747 as a refueller seems a massive overkill, with substantial operating restrictions & operational costs. Most of the RAAF bases have pavement restrictions limiting B747's to significantly less than their maximum weights. Generally, B747's burn 8-10 tons of fuel per hour, verses an A330 which burns 4-5 tons per hour.

The other argument concerning engine reliability & twins really isn't relevant. The inflight failure rate of modern turbofan engines is astoundingly low. Combined with continual engine parameter & trend monitoring unanticipated component failures rarely occur. Even if this were to occur, an A330 at maximum weight will still climb to ~FL150, or 'drift down' to FL240 at 300kts. I agree to RAAF should consider more AAR capability, I just don't think old B744's are the best or most cost effective option.

Regards,

WaterBoy :)
And what of the rumour of RAAF picking up ex-Qantas A330's which are due to be "phased out" due to Qantas consolidating on new build B-787's?

There's no mention in the DCP of any funding for this, but a similar precedent was set with the "quick" adoption of the extra 2 Wedgetails AND C-17's despite a lack of publicly announced funding or even previous strategic "need". (Meant in the sense of Government statements as opposed to "actual" need).

You seem to have a bit of specific knowledge with these issues, Waterboy, do you think the proposal likely???
 

WaterBoy

New Member
Qantas has never had a jet aeroplane type less than 20 years. 4 A330-200 aircraft are going to Jetstar International. After Jetstar Intl get B787's maybe, but in this weeks 5 year plan they are to return to Qantas. The delayed A380 arrival has left the airline short of capacity. Sorry to disappoint but no nothing about the DCP!

:D
 
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