I think, I've said enough in my replies but I will just throw some questions in there for people to reflect upon:Rich said:For a few reasons. First off Political stability in the affected nation. A guy like Musharraf is a Dictator sitting on the razors edge of instability in a Nation State that will always be in danger of being overthrown by Islamic Fundamentalism. The place, and places like it, are political powder kegs.
Mr. WebMaster, I know this topic was not supposed to talk about islamic Fundamentalism or its effects, but sure has digressed into that scenario. So let me provide you with my comments. I'm sure not even one of my comments will satisfy your questions. But lemme try.WebMaster said:I think, I've said enough in my replies but I will just throw some questions in there for people to reflect upon:
Last time "islamic fundamentalism" took power in Pakistan was what year?
No, Never Islamic Fundamentalism never took hold in Pakistan. Pakistan is ruled by president who has no mandate( Means democracy), It has a elected parliment which consists of the Islamic Fundamentalists, Is'nt it ? Now If some one from that government says, We will nuke an X country , Is'nt it the responsibility of the government.Last time those "islamic fundamentalists" (pakistani or non-pakistani) expressed their desire to use the weapon and against which country? And why?
Hmm.. Interesting , but simple question, Why did CIA keep quiet when it knew Dr.Khan left sweeden with secrets? Now , who was most hated in arab word at that time ? India or Israel ? Who needed something to counter the Israelis? Why did US not stop the arms help to Pakistan , financially and by arming with weapons until Afghan war stopped(1990)? Why did US put in sanctions until the Afghan war was over ? Did'nt it knew that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapon from 1970's ?Who started the Pakistani nuclear program? Who is supporting it? Who is protecting it? How many were Islamic fundamentalists?
Nay, I never heard any such things. But everyone's concerned.Last time we heard nukes were "missing" in which country? This includes mini-nukes, briefcase nukes?
Now, For example, US and Canada share border and enjoy cordial relations , So even if US helps canada, Does any other country know about that ? Pakistan was helped by China many times in many ways, now, why it was done can be explained by china's ambitions. But when the level of co operation between two countries is more than expected in many areas, Its suspected not convicted that they share technology. If I'm wrong, I'm sorry!Last time we heard nuclear secrets and/or other military secrets were transfered to China from which country?
Dunno, It happens on SMALL and LARGE scale, some come out and some do not. We cannot talk about when and where until we have a exhaustive list of such things , when every country reports.Last time we had nuclear reactor related accidents in which country?
No, But whats the condition now ? Maybe, Who knows some terrorist organisations may have brought it at labor weekend sale at some remote place ? Now that provides organizations not countries, then against whom is anyone going to target ?Last time a nuclear bomb was used by which country on what other country and if that country had the nukes would it have been used?
Russia and forver Soviet republics, and considering the number of nukes, every country which have big nuke arsenals may have equal probability . Now It may not mean any sense now, but things do change, No one can change destiny , can we ?Which countries have nuclear weapons in the thousands where chances of one going in the "wrong" hands is greater? It is like cars on the road, the more you have the more chances of accidents.
No one will use nukes until if the person who commans authority has gone nuts. I accept you point, but about stability, its wrong. People( Form Countries) fulfill their amibitions , which may be because of variety of reasons. Just because we burn put out backyard on fire does'nt not mean that neighbour will do that for stability. Its his sense of perception, for his needs suiting the conditions and future. Same is true, Pakistan attacking India that too with nukes is not possible, one of the reason is MAD, second and third might seem too political.Even if Islamic fundamentalists get power in Pakistan, that does not mean they will use the weapon without any reason? Let's take Pakistani nukes out of the picture for a minute and say there is war between India and Pakistan - India is forced to use the weapon on Pakistan knowing very well that Pakistan does not have the nuclear weapon. Would we call Indian decision to use the nuke a fundamentalist choice? Or would we just act like deer in front of headlights and let few million Pakistani die because they are all bad old islamic fundamentalists? The Pakistani nukes ADD to the STABILITY of the region as well as the country, if those nukes were not there last time the hostilities were high, the war was inevitable.
How ? Any good ideas ? Did'nt US know pakistan was making nuclear stuff from 1970's from the sweedish ?It did know, It also knew at time of Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, But nothing concrete came out until end of Soviet Invasion. Hard choices have least of responsibility and remorse, they will show their effects slowly, its like caffene.If we were really SINCERE about condition of Pakistani nukes, we would look into ways to rid South Asia of such weapons... unfortunately, for almost 3 decades we were like deer in front of headlights until Pakistan tested the weapon in 1998. As I said, the fundamentalist problem is world wide, no fundamental bastards should ever get their hands on nuclear weapons in any nuclear power state. Pakistanis built the nukes to make sure they protect the integrity, unity and sovernty of Pakistan. It wasn't like picking flowers, it was a hard choice and hard choices are made with responsibility factor already factored in.
That is what I am saying, IT MAY happen from any of the nuclear power states including Pakistan. I MAY fly to the moon, so? We are working on big IF but being very selective about it. Better part of my question was WHEN did those "islamic fundamentalists" EXPRESSED desire or feeling or will to nuke another country? They are in government opposition but can't even get their bills to pass or take care of things domestically to let alone be a threat to a foreign power. Even if they were in power, they would NOT have the control of Pakistani nuclear weaponry, that is Military's job and multiple levels of command has to approve the use of nuclear strike under certain circumstances. Why do we prop up the fear when nothing that would suggest an automatic nuking of another country if Islamic fundmentalists take power. The social fabric? It is the same social fabric which has approved operation of Pakistan army to operate within Pakistan to kill terrorists. After United States, who has reserved more troops in war against terror? Pakistan.Mr. WebMaster, I know this topic was not supposed to talk about islamic Fundamentalism or its effects, but sure has digressed into that scenario. So let me provide you with my comments. I'm sure not even one of my comments will satisfy your questions. But lemme try.
No, Never Islamic Fundamentalism never took hold in Pakistan. Pakistan is ruled by president who has no mandate( Means democracy), It has a elected parliment which consists of the Islamic Fundamentalists, Is'nt it ? Now If some one from that government says, We will nuke an X country , Is'nt it the responsibility of the government.
Looking at the larger picture, Islam does not mean bad, nor Pakistan means a 'Axis' country. Taking cue from US, just because President Bush( I'm a great fan of his bushism's) attacked Iraq, should not mean that all americans are war mongerers. We have to understand, Its only a section of population which is thinking differently. But the attitude towards US War on Terror is treated as invasion in other countries. Is'nt it ?
Pakistan is also similar, It has a small section of population who are touted as 'Islamic Fundamentalists', they try to convince the illterate population of their machinations, which unfortunatey show results in some cases. Does not mean all Pakistani's are bad though!!
Its this social fabric which causes concern that something of tha sort MAY HAPPEN.
CIA knew.... the world knew about other nations developing nuclear weapons as well as testing them, of course nothing was done to stop that. Every country does what they need to do for protection of their borders and that is what Pakistan did and that is the reason behind Pakistan acquiring nuclear technology, every country has the right to defend it self right?Hmm.. Interesting , but simple question, Why did CIA keep quiet when it knew Dr.Khan left sweeden with secrets? Now , who was most hated in arab word at that time ? India or Israel ? Who needed something to counter the Israelis? Why did US not stop the arms help to Pakistan , financially and by arming with weapons until Afghan war stopped(1990)? Why did US put in sanctions until the Afghan war was over ? Did'nt it knew that Pakistan was developing nuclear weapon from 1970's ?
Say what? One hand you are singling out "islamic fundamentals" as the threat and those who MAY use nuclear weapons and only other hand you are saying you don't want to count people as Islamists? Make up your mind, will ya?We cannot count the number of people as 'Islamists' and 'Non-Islamists' , Its tough, Either wise, we are biased or we do not understand whats what.
The missing Russian nukes? Former Soviet states? Do a google on 'em.Nay, I never heard any such things. But everyone's concerned.
I'm not sure what you mean... a lot of countries get help from many other countries. How do you think countries got the nuclear and missile technology? Pakistan got help from china, rest of the countries had their technologies delivered from hell by satan, right?Now, For example, US and Canada share border and enjoy cordial relations , So even if US helps canada, Does any other country know about that ? Pakistan was helped by China many times in many ways, now, why it was done can be explained by china's ambitions. But when the level of co operation between two countries is more than expected in many areas, Its suspected not convicted that they share technology. If I'm wrong, I'm sorry!
Search on google for nuclear reactor accidents... happened in Russia, US? Ukraine, India? But yeah, an accident MAY happen in Pakistan...Dunno, It happens on SMALL and LARGE scale, some come out and some do not. We cannot talk about when and where until we have a exhaustive list of such things , when every country reports.
That is not answer to my question... buying nukes is not same as buying bread from the super market. Get real will you? It takes years of research, huge plants, scientists, etc. to MAKE nuclear weapons before you can sell them and to sell to who? Guy with a pickup truck? Excuses, excuses, excuses to ignore all weapons buildup, all other nuclear powers but one.No, But whats the condition now ? Maybe, Who knows some terrorist organisations may have brought it at labor weekend sale at some remote place ? Now that provides organizations not countries, then against whom is anyone going to target ?
We are not talking about density, it is simple logic. The more cars you have on the road, the more probable chances of accidents happening.Russia and forver Soviet republics, and considering the number of nukes, every country which have big nuke arsenals may have equal probability . Now It may not mean any sense now, but things do change, No one can change destiny , can we ?
I'm more worried about Islamic militant elements in Pakistans military and command structure then any "civilian Goverment. We cant forget that Pakistan is in large measure the birthplace of Islamic Fundamentalism, or at least its womb. Much of Al Qaeda and Islamic militants can claim the Madrassas, or religious schools, in Pakistan as their Alma Mater and any comfort in the fact that no religious parties hold office, or that Musharraf holds power, is less comforting when remembering Tehran circa-1979 and the Shah.http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/pakistan/Civilian government has no control over Pakistan's nukes and Pakistani military is not that stupid. Still, it's nuclear weapons falling into wrong hands is a big if, Musharraf is not the only progressive leader in Pakistan. Religious parties never held any position beyond senate to be any cause of concern, even if they do get the prime minister or whatever, still they know better not to use the nukes offensively. The extremist groups that existed in the 90s are all dismantled and their supporters busy in either hiding from the government or helping their brothers against Pakistani and coalition forces in Afghanistan. Even if this big dreaded IF comes to life, it can't be worst than Iran or even worst North Korea.
Iran has a fairly capable IRBM capability already and growing larger, and more sophisticated all the time. And they realize just by having nukes they will have far more influence in regional and world affairs. And were talking about people here who say they cant wait to die and go to paradise. The kind who would fly airplanes into buildings. The mental stability of the unelected ruling Mullahs of Iran give me even less comfort. But a even scarier, and probably more possible scenario would be a small group of lunatics getting their hands on a weapon. And/or poor handling or storage of these weapons along with untested command and control.Iran, will definately try to scare the world, will not succeed in implementing a nuclear command and control. Just by building nukes will not get them anything, they need delivery weapons like the ICBM's which they do not have. Also, they know for every weapon they build they have 100+ weapons falling on them in retaliation. They will more likely couple with Middle east countries and use OIL as a weapon, rather than Nukes.
I'll take a commie who enjoys wallowing in luxury over a religious fanatic anyday.North Korea is esoteric and and the rules decides everything. Its tough to guage what he will do.
No, Im sorry, but the activities of The Khan network cast the entire Pakistani nuclear program into a sinister light. It will grow even more sinister when Iran builds their bombs.. Pakistanis built the nukes to make sure they protect the integrity, unity and sovernty of Pakistan. It wasn't like picking flowers, it was a hard choice and hard choices are made with responsibility factor already factored in.
And all this changes should their unelected Military strongman get ousted by a populist revolt. I myself question the Pakistani commitment to fighting Islamic Fundamentalist terror. The two are like two wolves in the same cage to begin with Pakistan has a long history of collusion with Al Qaeda. Hell, they are the ones who created the Taliban in the first place.According to a report of IAEA, "Pakistan has taken stringent measures to secure its nuclear materials and is continuously pursuing to meet international standards in regulating its nuclear activities".
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060809/kyodo/d8jcsvcg0.htmlPakistan sets up tri-command nuclear force: officials
(Kyodo) _ Pakistan has set up three commands in its armed forces equipped with nuclear weapons and missiles and capable of retaliating for any first nuclear strike by India, Defense Ministry officials, strategists and nuclear experts have revealed.
The Armed Strategic Force, or ASF, is comprised of special commands in Pakistan's army, air force and navy that store nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles in semi-knocked-down condition in peacetime for assembly and deployment during periods of high tension with India.
"We have an Army Strategic Force Command, we have the Air Force Strategic Force Command and the Naval Strategic Force Command...They are being controlled by responsible people," Defense Ministry spokesman Shaukat Sultan told Kyodo News in a recent interview.
"The strategic force in the army is headed by a three-star general and they have various missile groups under them," he said.
The army component, set up in 2003 under Lt. Gen. Ghulam Mustafa, forms the backbone of the combined strategic force and its silos and warehouses, mostly underground, dot the map of Pakistan, according to officials and experts interviewed by Kyodo.
"There might be up to 100 facilities where missiles and nuclear weapons and their parts are stored in peacetime," said a source well-versed with developments on the nuclear front.
Sultan refused to divulge the number of people involved in the storing, security and possible deployment and operation of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, but independent inquiries reveal the army's strategic force has nearly 6,000 "appropriately trained and skilled people."
It is equipped with medium-range Shaheen missiles along with long-range Ghauri missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, capable of striking almost anywhere in India, with which Pakistan has fought three wars since independence in 1947.
The air force component of the ASF has F-16 fighters, supplied by the United States in the 1980s to support Pakistan's frontline role during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and French-made Mirage aircraft, both modified to deliver nuclear weapons.
In what has been hailed as an impressive technological feat, Pakistan rewired the F-16, reprogrammed its computer and fitted it with under-wing carriages to carry a nuclear device, the shell of which was reconfigured for the purpose.
"It is poetic justice that the nuclear device fitted on the F-16 aircraft resembles an American conventional bomb," remarked an official source.
As for the navy's strategic force, defense analysts said Babar, a newly developed cruise missile, is the best candidate for induction, though Pakistan has yet to follow India in test-firing such a nuclear-capable missile from a naval platform.
Both Pakistan and India carried out nuclear tests in May 1998, triggering international sanctions and calls for them to desist from weaponization, namely miniaturizing nuclear devices for placement on surface-to-surface missiles. Neither, however, has discontinued their weaponization and missile development programs.
Shireen Mazari, head of Pakistan's Institute of Strategic Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, said it would be "ludicrous" to do otherwise. "If you develop weapon capability, you are going to weaponize," she said.
Sultan confirmed that Pakistan has indeed been carrying out an India-specific modernization and weaponization program, but he said its nuclear weapons and related missiles have never been deployed.
Likewise, India has carried out a weaponization program but without moving to deployment, according to P.R. Chari, a former Indian Defense Ministry official who is currently a research professor at the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies in New Delhi.
As a precaution against theft or misuse, Pakistan's nuclear devices and nuclear-capable missiles are stored in partially knocked-down condition, nuclear warheads are not mated with delivery systems, and the weapons require codes to operate, Sultan said.
"The launch mechanism, the device and various other mechanisms, they are kept at different places. To launch them, you have to first put them together," he said, adding that the codes are available to very few, even among strategic force personnel.
Despite having been sanctioned for their 1998 nuclear tests, India and Pakistan have both engaged in dialogue with developed countries like the United States and Japan to introduce safeguards against pilferage, theft and accidental use of nuclear weapons.
"We are in touch with the International Atomic Energy Agency, we are in touch with the U.S. authorities, and they fully know what kind of command and control system we have...There is no chance that there is any pilferage or any accidental use," Sultan said.
The defense spokesman said that while the three strategic force commands remain affiliated with the respective services -- army, air force and navy -- they take orders from the Nuclear Command Authority headed by President Gen. Pervez Musharraf with representatives from the government and the military.
Musharraf, who came into power in October 1999, set up the NCA in February 2000 to decide on nuclear weapons deployment.
The NCA's secretariat, known as the Strategic Plans Division, is located in the office of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, adjacent to Islamabad, and headed by three-star Lt. Gen. Khalid Kidwai.
The division oversees the activities of all the nuclear and missile-related organizations, including the ASF, with the assistance of two committees that respectively decide about the size of the minimum nuclear deterrence and their deployment.
The creation of the ASF was hastened by the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks on the United States, which exposed Pakistan's vulnerability to a preemptive strike by India or forces hostile to Pakistan's nuclear program.
At the time, India had offered bases to the United States for operations against the Taliban and al-Qaida positions in Afghanistan that would involve overflying Pakistan, which was then one of only three countries recognizing the Taliban government.
Pakistan responded by also joining the coalition against international terrorism and offering bases to the United States.
Sultan said one reason Pakistan acted as it did was because failure to do so would have endangered its strategic assets. "Had we not taken the decision, had we not joined the coalition, probably, yes, there could have been a strike," he said.
The spokesman said that with the setting up of the ASF, Pakistan is now in a position to retaliate if India were to opt for a preemptive strike against Pakistan.
"One can say that Pakistan would be able to survive any kind of strike and will be able to respond," he said. "But let me put on record that this is only an academic discussion. Normally, no two countries should talk about these serious matters. It is not only dangerous for one country, it is dangerous for the whole world."
The "need" is based on contingencies. For example, weve always maintained we need a Triad of strategic forces in order to keep a legitimate retaliatory capacity against a Soviet first strike. I say "Soviet" because we are still stuck somewhat in that time frame. Our triad of forces includes bombers, Ohio class SSBNs, and ICBMs, which will shortly consist only of Minuteman-lll. Along with the strategic picture was/is the Theatre picture where NATO also maintained theatre nuclear weapons to offset the vast Soviet conventional superiority. We used to have a much larger arsenal of both types of weapons. As far as I know our only "theatre" option now is gravity bombs where'as we used to have both IRBMs and artillery weapons in Europe.TheOne said:Hi there,
I think you me and everyone has read about nuclear weapons and stockpiling. At the height of the cold war, both US and USSR had enormous stockples of nuclear weapons( Fission, Fusion nd Stuff). I think each nation had an excess of over 10,000 of these. They had SALT I, SALT II stuff, but what happened? They led to lowering of arsenals to 5000-6000 odd, that too with more deadly MIRV's.
Now my question is whats the need of having so many nuclear weapons, Was the nationalistic attitude of the countries or narrow mindedness of the nation is responsible for this.
Each nation could have been contented with 1000 or odd , but both nations had created enormous stockpiles which have to be take care off.
Now, we know that USSR broke up and the nuclear weapons presented a big problem for western nations , that they may fall into hands of fundamentalists or dictators or "AXIS" nations.
But in future, Imagine, even US breaks down( its also confederation of states), or may be some other different problem , How will it be tackled?
Why does either US/Russia/China/UK/France do something in this aspect ? Or do they think that having 10000+ nuclear weapons would help their supremacy or being counted as P-5 in the world.
Cheers
I also dont want to speak for the Mods but they do allow leeway for a thread to evolve as long as its done respectfully. I have many Pakistani friends and surely dont intend anything I say to be an insult. I think, and hope, the future between us will be friendly. But Musharraf is in a very difficult position and we should both be grateful, Pakistanis and Yanks, Hes in power. I myself admire the man but my eyes are also wide open.Why does either US/Russia/China/UK/France do something in this aspect ? Or do they think that having 10000+ nuclear weapons would help their supremacy or being counted as P-5 in the world.