Official Chengdu J-20 Discussion Thread

[uaf]

The likelyhood that the PLAAF will have a fighter in the capabilities of the F-22 by 2020 is unrealistic. Look how long it took to develop the Raptor. Even with China's large man power, they don't have any experience developing an aircraft that complex. I don't doubt they could develop a aircraft that looks like the F-22, and can be as or more manuverable by then. If the aircraft use Russian all aspect thrust vectoring nozzles, the jet could have awesome moves in the air. I think the part China will have problems developing is the advance stealth tecnology and advance avionics. Remember the U.S. has about a 20 year advantage in stealth technology. Also the F-22 is considered by many of the pilots that fly it an Mini-AWACS. The Raptor can pull in / push out so much information it is in a class by itself. China will be able to duplicate some aspects of the F-22 in the next 15 years but not all of them.

Hi ! yea you are right china wont be able to match F-22 Raptor in next 15 years but at least they are trying to ( IF J-XX exists ) Some one on this forum said that " China will leave Russia behind in terms of Technology used in most of areas " and I agree with it just look at the the leap advances in space or Aircraft Technology ( its debatable if Chinese are actually trying to copy others more than focusing on research )

I read it J-10 has almost every time over came to Su-27/Su-30/J-11 ( again the source is Wikipedia ) but lets just appreciate J-10 is a success which few people believed China will ever be able to do so.

Rather than saying China will never be able to do that or USA will ever have the supremacy in the air its ridiculous. It has happened in past when superpowers were considered invisible but they collapsed Question is WHEN rather than IF .

I agree with rjmaz1 China does’t need J-XX to be as effective as F-22 for now I don’t see any war b/w USA and China in near future. Never underestimate your opponents either they can or can’t only time will tell but yea J-XX wont match F-22 in 15 years.

Cheers

 

[Viktor]

Hi ! yea you are right china wont be able to match F-22 Raptor in next 15 years but at least they are trying to ( IF J-XX exists ) Some one on this forum said that " China will leave Russia behind in terms of Technology used in most of areas " and I agree with it just look at the the leap advances in space or Aircraft Technology ( its debatable if Chinese are actually trying to copy others more than focusing on research )

I read it J-10 has almost every time over came to Su-27/Su-30/J-11 ( again the source is Wikipedia ) but lets just appreciate J-10 is a success which few people believed China will ever be able to do so.

Rather than saying China will never be able to do that or USA will ever have the supremacy in the air its ridiculous. It has happened in past when superpowers were considered invisible but they collapsed Question is WHEN rather than IF .

I agree with rjmaz1 China does’t need J-XX to be as effective as F-22 for now I don’t see any war b/w USA and China in near future. Never underestimate your opponents either they can or can’t only time will tell but yea J-XX wont match F-22 in 15 years.

Cheers

China will leave Russia in tehnology in some parallel unverese maybe.
J-10 you are mentioning is made by Izraels help (first Lavi project) after because of US preassure got cancelled Russians finished project, even engine is Russian etc ...

China gets Russian help in all branches of warfare weapons.
China is still 20 years behind in weapons tehnology - it has modern weapons simply because of buying and excellent knowledge in copy - paste technic.

 

[uaf]

China will leave Russia in tehnology in some parallel unverese maybe.
J-10 you are mentioning is made by Izraels help (first Lavi project) after because of US preassure got cancelled Russians finished project, even engine is Russian etc ...

China gets Russian help in all branches of warfare weapons.
China is still 20 years behind in weapons tehnology - it has modern weapons simply because of buying and excellent knowledge in copy - paste technic.

1-There is absolute no comparison between J-10 and Lavi fighter these are mere speculations just because it looks like Lavi fighter just google it or visit these links and if u got any prove of it than I would be glad to accept it ??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Lavi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-10

J-10 is the clone of Typhon that’s my speculation what about that ?? its nothing but nonsense we pint point something without any concrete prove.

2-I never said Russia isn’t helping China if you search J-10 project actually was initiated to counter SU series but the scenario has changed now Russian companies need money in order to stay in business and China has it that’s the main point in Soviet era the Defense budget was almost same of USA now Russia hasn’t got that much money in order to develop new technologies they need money on the other hand China has huge market there are already almost 10+ companies competing to provide next generation aircraft for PLAAF more the competition excellent the finished product plus the unit cost will also decrease when PLAAF will induct large numbers of plans which Russia doesn’t have at this moment. That’s were China is very strong and the way they are advancing they will defiantly leave Russia behind due to large number of skilled people , Huge Economy (potentional) and domestic market ( for plans ).

What if India go for F-18 or Typhon or Rafale for 126 MRCA deal who will loose Sukhoi and Mig and what if China stop buying Su27/Su30/J-11 as they already choose J-10 rather than J-11 who will loose ?? , what will be next move of Russia offer Su-30 Mki to Pakistan ?? ( Which i think will happen sooner or later when USA can offer planes to both India and Pakistan why Russia can't and if 126 MRCA deal goes to western side it can happen very soon )

Well Russia will have to look for new markets or these companies will die their own death because Russia don’t have domestic market like China. keeping in view all these point ( Mentioned China and Russia because biggest buyer of Russian made Products )

1-Economy ,2-Ability to purchase large number of aircrafts 3-Cheap cost 4-No Shortage of skilled people

China will leave Russia Behind soon if not 5 years than may be in 10.
Cheers

 

[Grand Danois]

Israel's role in China's new warplane

 

[uaf]

Israel's role in China's new warplane

Yea i read it there can be some help from Israel's companies but still it only looks like Lavi the satats does't , second there is comprehensive debate going on on F-16.net Pakistan never provided any thing of F-16 to Chinese thats what the team says which inspected F-16 in Pakistan.

Cheers

 

[Grand Danois]

I'm afraid you'll have to point me in the direction of the F-16.net lavi/J-10/F-16 threads.

 

[Viktor]

1-There is absolute no comparison between J-10 and Lavi fighter these are mere speculations just because it looks like Lavi fighter just google it or visit these links and if u got any prove of it than I would be glad to accept it ??
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Lavi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J-10

J-10 is the clone of Typhon that’s my speculation what about that ?? its nothing but nonsense we pint point something without any concrete prove.

Lavi is not a clone of any fighter. By its capabilities Lavi surpassed F-16, was cheaper and US in a fear of loosing markets for F-16 baned its companies whitch where producing advanced parts for the fighter to do so and in exchange Israel was allowed to buy more advanced US weapons. Thats the truth.

2-I never said Russia isn’t helping China if you search J-10 project actually was initiated to counter SU series but the scenario has changed now Russian companies need money in order to stay in business and China has it

Russians for the veary same reason (money) greatly helped PLA in designing advanced weapons. (subs, ships, planes, etc)
Russian will in future help Chinese design weapons and will probable sufininced some designs togeather now that they are becoming more politicaly, economicaly and military bound to each other, but Russia defence industry is gaining momentum around the world and China is not anymore main sorce of money for the crippled industry (Venecuela, Algeria, India, etc).
You are teribly wrong if you think Russia is not developing new weapon systems with full speed.

that’s the main point in Soviet era the Defense budget was almost same of USA

Never was the same - few time less

now Russia hasn’t got that much money in order to develop new technologies they need money

Look at the oil prices and the exports!

on the other hand China has huge market there are already almost 10+ companies competing to provide next generation aircraft for PLAAF more the competition excellent the finished product plus the unit cost will also decrease when PLAAF will induct large numbers of plans which Russia doesn’t have at this moment.

Actualy its 2-3 companies whitch are compeating with extensive Russian help. Besides do you realy think Chinese J-xx will surpass PAK-FA?? Russia plans to buy 600 of them + unidetify number of Migs 5th generation fighter. So mutch about not having money.

That’s were China is very strong and the way they are advancing they will defiantly leave Russia behind due to large number of skilled people , Huge Economy (potentional) and domestic market ( for plans ).

True but in a time certanly not 20-30 years from now.

What if India go for F-18 or Typhon or Rafale for 126 MRCA deal who will loose Sukhoi and Mig and what if China stop buying Su27/Su30/J-11 as they already choose J-10 rather than J-11 who will loose ?? , what will be next move of Russia offer Su-30 Mki to Pakistan ?? ( Which i think will happen sooner or later when USA can offer planes to both India and Pakistan why Russia can't and if 126 MRCA deal goes to western side it can happen very soon

What if, what if??? India will most probably buy Mig-35 as it is not worse from F/A-18E/F and will arm its Migs as well as Su-30MKI with AESA radar as well as AL-31FM1 engines and it is mutch batter not to mix several diferent fighters. Maintaining!!!
india must thing in a big deal such is MCA on Russians too because it could easily happent --- Su-30MKP-- or some more advanced variant.

China will leave Russia Behind soon if not 5 years than may be in 10.

Want to bet?nfloorl:

 

[tphuang]

Israel's role in China's new warplane

I don't want to burst your bubble too much, but please don't use sources like Asian times, strategypage, missilethreat, FAS or wikipedia on anything Chinese related.

As for J-10 and Israelis, the J-10 project started in 1986 by CAC and the Israelis started their help in 1987 and left in 1995. J-10 didn't really become certified until late 2003 (or early 2004, depending on who you ask). As you can see, the Israeli were very helpful in J-10's development, but their real help has often been overrated. If you want to find out where J-10 drew most of its features, check the failed J-9 project (which is what CAC was working on before J-10). After looking through J-9, you will see plenty of resemblance in J-10. Also, a major point of note is that J-10 is a larger plane than Lavi and it uses a larger sized engine.

Actualy its 2-3 companies whitch are compeating with extensive Russian help. Besides do you realy think Chinese J-xx will surpass PAK-FA?? Russia plans to buy 600 of them + unidetify number of Migs 5th generation fighter. So mutch about not having money.

you really have no idea about the Chinese military industry, do you? Check it up a little bit. Russia plans to buy 600? You guys got enough money to have 58 su-34 by 2015. Where do you think you are going to get money for 600 5th generation plane. Seriously, be a little realistic.

 

[Grand Danois]

I don't want to burst your bubble too much, but please don't use sources like Asian times, strategypage, missilethreat, FAS or wikipedia on anything Chinese related.

So how do you burst a bubble just a little? :

What sources do you consider credible then?

Addendum: Did go for a look at the J-9. It seems it was never built. And simulations had its limits pre-1980. And as the J-10 project began in 1985, besides the canard experimentation on J-8's, how much technology was there to transfer?

 

[tphuang]

So how do you burst a bubble just a little? :

What sources do you consider credible then?

Addendum: Did go for a look at the J-9. It seems it was never built. And simulations had its limits pre-1980. And as the J-10 project began in 1985, besides the canard experimentation on J-8's, how much technology was there to transfer?

hard to say really, the most credible sources when it comes to pla are the pictures, after that it would be the official reports whether it is from xinhua, people's daily or CCTV, interviews with certain pla members (this often appears on Chinese forums), then it would be certain members of Chinese online forums (although this is often disregarded by non-Chinese speakers), following that would be the export news with other countries (for example, kanwa reports on what Russians exported/delivered to China), then whatever China shows in different defense exhibit (for example, we found out the existence of YLC-20). When it comes to pla, even well known sources like kanwa and Janes often mishits when it comes to pla news, so dedicated PLA observer sites like sinodefence and huitong's site are not always accurate and then there are just sites that do nothing but bs.

As for J-9, delta-canard is a big part. Also, another major factor inherited from J-9 is the requirement for high speed performance. imo, the biggest help that Israelis provided Chinese in the J-10 project is probably the help in avionics.

 

[Grand Danois]

That is also my impression of the data available. Being one of the Westerners with no access to Chinese language sites/forums, that is pretty much what is there.

The secrecy somehow begets interest. Besides, figuring out what pictures are for real or photoshopped is entertaining.

So, if the airframe is derived from the J-9, wouldn't the Israeli originated avionics have their legacy from the F-16/Lavi?

 

[kams]

Check it up a little bit. Russia plans to buy 600? You guys got enough money to have 58 su-34 by 2015. Where do you think you are going to get money for 600 5th generation plane. Seriously, be a little realistic.

I have no idea whethet\r Russia can/will buy 600 5th gen fighters or 58 Su-34 by 2015. But since 2005, Russian economy appears to be doing remarkably well and unlike PLA, there are well researched, independent, verifiable sources to confirm it .

From the year 2000, Russia's Foreign debt was reduced from 50 percent of Russia’s GDP to 30 percent, Russia’s debt of $3.3 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was repaid ahead of schedule in 2005, and $15 billion of
the $40 billion owed to its creditors in the Paris Club was also repaid ahead of schedule. Foreign exchange reserves more than tripled and now amount to over $225 billion.

Russia's real GDP grew to $696 billion from $193 billion in 1999. Between 2000 and 2005, the average GDP growth was 6.6%. Oil and Natural Gas production accounts for between 16=20% of Russian GDP.

I can go on, but above should illustrate that Russian economy is growing at a good pace. I for one would not like to make a bet on how many 5th Generation fighters they will be buying 10-15 years from now.

 

[tphuang]

I have no idea whethet\r Russia can/will buy 600 5th gen fighters or 58 Su-34 by 2015. But since 2005, Russian economy appears to be doing remarkably well and unlike PLA, there are well researched, independent, verifiable sources to confirm it .

From the year 2000, Russia's Foreign debt was reduced from 50 percent of Russia’s GDP to 30 percent, Russia’s debt of $3.3 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was repaid ahead of schedule in 2005, and $15 billion of
the $40 billion owed to its creditors in the Paris Club was also repaid ahead of schedule. Foreign exchange reserves more than tripled and now amount to over $225 billion.

Russia's real GDP grew to $696 billion from $193 billion in 1999. Between 2000 and 2005, the average GDP growth was 6.6%. Oil and Natural Gas production accounts for between 16=20% of Russian GDP.

I can go on, but above should illustrate that Russian economy is growing at a good pace. I for one would not like to make a bet on how many 5th Generation fighters they will be buying 10-15 years from now.

696 billion is not a lot, the 5th generation fighters will only get more expensive, Russian military expenditure may be going up, but they still got a long way to go before they can buy hundreds of frontline fighters like in the 80s.

So, if the airframe is derived from the J-9, wouldn't the Israeli originated avionics have their legacy from the F-16/Lavi?

not derived per se, but it's more like it got a lot of test data from J-9 (+ other domestic project) and also some from the Lavi project. As for avionics, it's the same deal, they got help from the Israelis. But there are other factors like a general advancement in the Chinese electronics industry. Anyhow, my point is that J-10 is not the Lavi clone that certain groups label it.

 

[crobato]

I have no idea whethet\r Russia can/will buy 600 5th gen fighters or 58 Su-34 by 2015. But since 2005, Russian economy appears to be doing remarkably well and unlike PLA, there are well researched, independent, verifiable sources to confirm it .

From the year 2000, Russia's Foreign debt was reduced from 50 percent of Russia’s GDP to 30 percent, Russia’s debt of $3.3 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was repaid ahead of schedule in 2005, and $15 billion of
the $40 billion owed to its creditors in the Paris Club was also repaid ahead of schedule. Foreign exchange reserves more than tripled and now amount to over $225 billion.

Russia's real GDP grew to $696 billion from $193 billion in 1999. Between 2000 and 2005, the average GDP growth was 6.6%. Oil and Natural Gas production accounts for between 16=20% of Russian GDP.

I can go on, but above should illustrate that Russian economy is growing at a good pace. I for one would not like to make a bet on how many 5th Generation fighters they will be buying 10-15 years from now.

Well before that, Mexico has to be buying a lot of stealth fighters too from 10 to 15 years from now by the same token. Congratulations, since you only achieved the GDP of Mexico.

 

[crobato]

China will leave Russia in tehnology in some parallel unverese maybe.
J-10 you are mentioning is made by Izraels help (first Lavi project) after because of US preassure got cancelled Russians finished project, even engine is Russian etc ...

China gets Russian help in all branches of warfare weapons.
China is still 20 years behind in weapons tehnology - it has modern weapons simply because of buying and excellent knowledge in copy - paste technic.

China has already left Russia in many areas of technology, fundamental among them are just about every field in electronics.

 

[kams]

Well before that, Mexico has to be buying a lot of stealth fighters too from 10 to 15 years from now by the same token. Congratulations, since you only achieved the GDP of Mexico.

Obviously you did not get what I was saying. Look at the growth from 1999 to 2005. Most people do not realize that Russian Economy is growing at more than double the rate of other G-7 countries. Based on that, try to look at where it will be 10, 15, 20 years from now. Then start making your predictions .

In your opinion Mexico has the same industrial infrastructure as Russia?

 

[uaf]

Lavi is not a clone of any fighter. By its capabilities Lavi surpassed F-16, was cheaper and US in a fear of loosing markets for F-16 baned its companies whitch where producing advanced parts for the fighter to do so and in exchange Israel was allowed to buy more advanced US weapons. Thats the truth.




Russians for the veary same reason (money) greatly helped PLA in designing advanced weapons. (subs, ships, planes, etc)
Russian will in future help Chinese design weapons and will probable sufininced some designs togeather now that they are becoming more politicaly, economicaly and military bound to each other, but Russia defence industry is gaining momentum around the world and China is not anymore main sorce of money for the crippled industry (Venecuela, Algeria, India, etc).
You are teribly wrong if you think Russia is not developing new weapon systems with full speed.



Never was the same - few time less


Look at the oil prices and the exports!



Actualy its 2-3 companies whitch are compeating with extensive Russian help. Besides do you realy think Chinese J-xx will surpass PAK-FA?? Russia plans to buy 600 of them + unidetify number of Migs 5th generation fighter. So mutch about not having money.



True but in a time certanly not 20-30 years from now.




What if, what if??? India will most probably buy Mig-35 as it is not worse from F/A-18E/F and will arm its Migs as well as Su-30MKI with AESA radar as well as AL-31FM1 engines and it is mutch batter not to mix several diferent fighters. Maintaining!!!
india must thing in a big deal such is MCA on Russians too because it could easily happent --- Su-30MKP-- or some more advanced variant.



Want to bet?nfloorl:

Russian companies are helping China not just because China needs their help more because Russia needs money other wise India would had pulled out of many agreement ( reason don’t sell to China) just like the conditions they put for Pakistan.( Russian accepted it just because Pakistan’s market is reasonably smaller than Chinese )

I gave you some links just for some information about Lavi and J-10 or do some google there are very few similarities b/w J-10 and Lavi.No doubt some Israel’s companies may have contributed but if you are saying it’s a Israeli import I m sorry that’s not how it looks like. Do You remember after world war II Russian and American used most of German technology ( scientists ) to produce next generation of fighters do you remember how American Pilots were amazed in Korea when they saw Mig-15 I think , so I should say that what ever advances in military aviation Russia had is only because of using secret German Technology ?? Man you can learn from anyone at least to make a first step.

Why can’t J-XX be better than Pak-Fa after the soviet era Americans have almost gone 10 years ahead of Russian Why ?? More money more research and more the results. Russian economy may be doing wonders but not like Chinese, a considerable part of their economy is becoming oil based again Chinese is not. It can be @ 6.6/7 % but not 10.4/11 % China has the largest ( or second) Foreign exchange reserves in the WORLD China’s trade surplus has almost surpassed 165 Billion $ mark , China has more than 1 billion people and infact Russia is amongst few countries whose population is decreasing rather than increasing.

True China has already left Russia behind in most of electronics area and there is no shortage of Money or skilled people still you think China wont be able to catch Russia LOLzz

Not 20-30 years now what in 1000 years than ???

Yea alright tell Indians Buy Russian leave others they are more interested in western planes than Russian

Bet with you .... Oo come on I wont live for thousand years will ya :

 

[kams]

True China has already left Russia behind in most of electronics area and there is not shortage of Money or skilled people still you think China wont be able to catch Russia LOLzz

Crobato China has already left Russia in many areas of technology, fundamental among them are just about every field in electronics

Both of you made identical statements. I am curious to know in what way China is ahead of Russia in Electronics? Is it in sheer volume of investment and out-put in semiconductors or technology wise? If its former, you may be right. But regarding latter, both China and Russia are in the same level.

Between 2000-2004, the Chinese semiconductor industry grew 31% from $2.2 billion to $6.7 billion. In 2004, there were 670 IC companies employing a workforce of 130,000, of which 40,000 were engineers. IC manufacturing, there were a total of 39 fabrication plants by the end of 2004: one 12-inch plant, nine 8-inch plants and 29 4-inch to 6-inch plants.

This growth is really impressive. However almost 50% of this industry low value-added IC packaging and assembly. As per Mr. Yu Zhongyu, President of the Chinese Semiconductor Industry Association , all the micro components and memory of domestically manufactured consumer electronics products are imported.

The thinnest chip made in China is 0.18 micron manufactured by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, which is owned 100% by Taiwan based corporation. In case of Russia, Mikron makes 0.18 micron chips.

 

[Viktor]

Check it up a little bit. Russia plans to buy 600? You guys got enough money to have 58 su-34 by 2015. Where do you think you are going to get money for 600 5th generation plane. Seriously, be a little realistic.

Russian economy is growing at high speeds and number of 600 5th generation planes is official statement given after Russian air force introduced strategy of development until 2015. After all PAK-FA is not going to cost 380 milion $.

Im not Russian Im Croatian.

 

[uaf]

Both of you made identical statements. I am curious to know in what way China is ahead of Russia in Electronics? Is it in sheer volume of investment and out-put in semiconductors or technology wise? If its former, you may be right. But regarding latter, both China and Russia are in the same level.

Between 2000-2004, the Chinese semiconductor industry grew 31% from $2.2 billion to $6.7 billion. In 2004, there were 670 IC companies employing a workforce of 130,000, of which 40,000 were engineers. IC manufacturing, there were a total of 39 fabrication plants by the end of 2004: one 12-inch plant, nine 8-inch plants and 29 4-inch to 6-inch plants.

This growth is really impressive. However almost 50% of this industry low value-added IC packaging and assembly. As per Mr. Yu Zhongyu, President of the Chinese Semiconductor Industry Association , all the micro components and memory of domestically manufactured consumer electronics products are imported.

The thinnest chip made in China is 0.18 micron manufactured by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, which is owned 100% by Taiwan based corporation. In case of Russia, Mikron makes 0.18 micron chips.

you got to be kidding China is the world's fastest growing market for semiconductors and ranks as the world's third largest market, with $19 billion in annual sales, and it is expected to become the world's second largest market by 2010.

http://www.sia-online.org/backgrounders_china.cfm