NZ National Security Strategy.
Part 1
This is a multipart post with the first two tonight. These two cover my grounds for a National Security Strategy and the reasons why I believe that we are looking at future NZDF acquisitions the wrong way.
I think that we’re going about this the wrong way. We’re basically equipping for the last war we fought and not the next one that we’ll have to fight. The real problem is that we don’t have an overall strategy so everything is somewhat piecemeal. In any case we’re woefully underprepared regardless. This has been something that I have been thinking about for quite a while.
We need a National Security Strategy and I am using the term national security in a very broad sense. National security is more than just defence and the intelligence services such as the SIS and GCSB. It also includes food, fuels, medical supplies as well and any other essential imports, as well as exports. It also includes internal societal issues created because of changes in employment practices, internal migration especially urban drift, increased immigration, alienation of some groups within society, increased refugee and displaced person numbers especially within the region, regional instability etc.
Simon Ewing-Jarvie has launched a podcast series looking at the future of NZ in 2050 using statistics from Statistics NZ and elsewhere. Whilst it’s crystal ball gazing it’s based upon facts and he has been somewhat conservative in things such as population taking the lower end of the estimates. One number that stuck out was that by 2050 he said 40% of NZ’s population is estimated to be resident in Auckland and that will create all sorts of problems such as friction between Auckland and the rest of the country due to Auckland's domination of the country’s economy, political landscape, resources etc. So there is a significant amount to think about.
Another problem we have is that most of those in senior positions within NZDF, the political and bureaucratic elite are comfortable with what equipment types, force structures etc., that we have and are not prepared to move outside of their comfort zones, which paradoxically was something they would have done in their younger years, especially the NZDF personnel. Until that changes we will keep repeating the same mistakes. As Simon E-J said in his podcast series we were very lucky at the start of both WW1 and WW2 because both times we were woefully unprepared. Now we are in a worse condition than prior to either war and we cannot trust to luck a third time.
So how do we form a National Security Strategy (NSS)? It has to be a whole of government (HOG) approach and document that is applicable right across the government, so that when the balloon goes up every Ministry / Department knows what is required of it and can swing into action right away without waiting for direction from a Cabinet that has to decide what to do. That’s what happens now, hence a delay between the onset of the crisis and the response.
The NSS document gives the government apparatus the authority to swing into immediate action. It specifies the planning, preparations, risks and the responses that each Ministry / Department are required to do and who with. It details the limits and extent of their powers and authorities in the first response and then in subsequent proceedings. It specifies the responsibilities and actions that Parliament and the Executive have and are required to undertake. So it will have to be authorised by a specific Act of Parliament. The NSS will of course include the strategy for the defence of NZ and NZ defence policy. Ideally the Act that authorises it should include a provision that any changes to the NSS must be approved by Parliament with a 75% majority. This would include defence policy and capability. There would be a formal assessment of the geopolitical and geostrategic situation every two years with a report and recommendations if any be made to Parliament in camera.
WRT to NZDF it will definitely have a maritime focus, with three regions of concern:
South Pacific.
The South Pacific region is the home region of NZ comprised of the continents of Zealandia and Australia, along with numerous Polynesian and Melanesian island nations. Generally the region is peaceful with state on state conflict being rare. However there have been incidents of internal conflict within some states, such as the Fijian coups, Tongan riots, Samoan unrest and the Boungainville rebellion. The island nations are generally third world nations and struggle to find foreign investments. They have found themselves caught up in the great game between the great powers with the PRC using debt trap diplomacy to manoeuvre itself into the region in its continual quest for resources and influence. The USA has lately increased its soft power response as well, but generally leaves NZ and Australia to undertake most of the heavy lifting in the region below the equator.
Over the next 30 – 40 years lack of opportunities and poverty will force many from the islands to move to NZ and Australia looking for a better life. Simon E-J argues that as the Pacific Islanders depopulate and abandon their islands outsiders will move in from other regions due to their being forced out from their home regions. He argues that the world refugee population will be at a conservative estimate 230 million and possibly 1 billion people out of a population 10 billion people. Therefore we will be facing a situation similar to the Australian boat people problem only in greater numbers.
Alongside this will be the higher probability of failed states within the region and the internal discord that will occur. The possibly of interstate conflict also arises because of diminishing resources as outsiders have stripped the surrounding ocean of its protein and other resources. Flashpoints include Bougainville and PNG, Indonesia over West Papua, Fiji again with racial tensions between the indigenous Fijians and ethnic Indians, other island nations where internal order collapses and the governments are unable to operate.
Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
The Antarctic Treaty lapses in 2048 and prior to that will be subject to renegotiation. The treaty covers the geographical are from 60°S. However prior to that some state and non state actors will most likely attempt to circumvent the treaty bans on resource extraction and non peaceful military activities upon the continent. Within the surrounding waters illegal and unreported fishing activities will continue, but at a far higher rate than currently. There will also be more surface and subsurface naval activity occurring below 60”S as nations protect their assets in the region. Currently the VMF (Russian Navy) are believed to be operating a regular SSBN patrol in the region using a boat from its Pacific Fleet Base Vladivostok. They believe that if they launch their ICBM over the South Pole the US will not be able to react as quickly because they are oriented towards missile launches from the east, Western Pacific, Russia and over the North Pole.
Within the next five to 15 years the PLAN will also be capable of undertaking such missions so 60°S and below between the longitude of Cape Horn – Tierra del Fuego and the longitude of Perth or Aden, will have SSBNs and SSNs cruising it on deterrence patrols and undertaking ASW respectively. Those vessels will also be transiting waters adjacent to the Realm of NZ, not forgetting that there are some real deep waters off our eastern coast with depths of 2,000 m not uncommon, especially in the Hikurungi Trench, around Kaikoura, off the South Island east coast from off Ashburton south, and below the South Island. A submarine can hide in Cook Strait due to the flow noise from the high tidal flow of 9 knots and the morphology of the strait. There have been incidents of Soviet Russian submarines being reported in the Cook Strait area during the Cold War.
So we will face challenges in our southern waters and below 60°S to our interests in and around Antarctica that will not be in our interests. When a state and / or non state actor breaches the Antarctic Treaty and the subsequent agreements by undertaking prohibited activities on or around the continent, we are not in a position to counter those activities. Finally it will most likely occur well before the current Treaty period lapses.
Part 1
This is a multipart post with the first two tonight. These two cover my grounds for a National Security Strategy and the reasons why I believe that we are looking at future NZDF acquisitions the wrong way.
I think that we’re going about this the wrong way. We’re basically equipping for the last war we fought and not the next one that we’ll have to fight. The real problem is that we don’t have an overall strategy so everything is somewhat piecemeal. In any case we’re woefully underprepared regardless. This has been something that I have been thinking about for quite a while.
We need a National Security Strategy and I am using the term national security in a very broad sense. National security is more than just defence and the intelligence services such as the SIS and GCSB. It also includes food, fuels, medical supplies as well and any other essential imports, as well as exports. It also includes internal societal issues created because of changes in employment practices, internal migration especially urban drift, increased immigration, alienation of some groups within society, increased refugee and displaced person numbers especially within the region, regional instability etc.
Simon Ewing-Jarvie has launched a podcast series looking at the future of NZ in 2050 using statistics from Statistics NZ and elsewhere. Whilst it’s crystal ball gazing it’s based upon facts and he has been somewhat conservative in things such as population taking the lower end of the estimates. One number that stuck out was that by 2050 he said 40% of NZ’s population is estimated to be resident in Auckland and that will create all sorts of problems such as friction between Auckland and the rest of the country due to Auckland's domination of the country’s economy, political landscape, resources etc. So there is a significant amount to think about.
Another problem we have is that most of those in senior positions within NZDF, the political and bureaucratic elite are comfortable with what equipment types, force structures etc., that we have and are not prepared to move outside of their comfort zones, which paradoxically was something they would have done in their younger years, especially the NZDF personnel. Until that changes we will keep repeating the same mistakes. As Simon E-J said in his podcast series we were very lucky at the start of both WW1 and WW2 because both times we were woefully unprepared. Now we are in a worse condition than prior to either war and we cannot trust to luck a third time.
So how do we form a National Security Strategy (NSS)? It has to be a whole of government (HOG) approach and document that is applicable right across the government, so that when the balloon goes up every Ministry / Department knows what is required of it and can swing into action right away without waiting for direction from a Cabinet that has to decide what to do. That’s what happens now, hence a delay between the onset of the crisis and the response.
The NSS document gives the government apparatus the authority to swing into immediate action. It specifies the planning, preparations, risks and the responses that each Ministry / Department are required to do and who with. It details the limits and extent of their powers and authorities in the first response and then in subsequent proceedings. It specifies the responsibilities and actions that Parliament and the Executive have and are required to undertake. So it will have to be authorised by a specific Act of Parliament. The NSS will of course include the strategy for the defence of NZ and NZ defence policy. Ideally the Act that authorises it should include a provision that any changes to the NSS must be approved by Parliament with a 75% majority. This would include defence policy and capability. There would be a formal assessment of the geopolitical and geostrategic situation every two years with a report and recommendations if any be made to Parliament in camera.
WRT to NZDF it will definitely have a maritime focus, with three regions of concern:
- South Pacific.
- Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
- Northern, Eastern, and South East Asia.
South Pacific.
The South Pacific region is the home region of NZ comprised of the continents of Zealandia and Australia, along with numerous Polynesian and Melanesian island nations. Generally the region is peaceful with state on state conflict being rare. However there have been incidents of internal conflict within some states, such as the Fijian coups, Tongan riots, Samoan unrest and the Boungainville rebellion. The island nations are generally third world nations and struggle to find foreign investments. They have found themselves caught up in the great game between the great powers with the PRC using debt trap diplomacy to manoeuvre itself into the region in its continual quest for resources and influence. The USA has lately increased its soft power response as well, but generally leaves NZ and Australia to undertake most of the heavy lifting in the region below the equator.
Over the next 30 – 40 years lack of opportunities and poverty will force many from the islands to move to NZ and Australia looking for a better life. Simon E-J argues that as the Pacific Islanders depopulate and abandon their islands outsiders will move in from other regions due to their being forced out from their home regions. He argues that the world refugee population will be at a conservative estimate 230 million and possibly 1 billion people out of a population 10 billion people. Therefore we will be facing a situation similar to the Australian boat people problem only in greater numbers.
Alongside this will be the higher probability of failed states within the region and the internal discord that will occur. The possibly of interstate conflict also arises because of diminishing resources as outsiders have stripped the surrounding ocean of its protein and other resources. Flashpoints include Bougainville and PNG, Indonesia over West Papua, Fiji again with racial tensions between the indigenous Fijians and ethnic Indians, other island nations where internal order collapses and the governments are unable to operate.
Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
The Antarctic Treaty lapses in 2048 and prior to that will be subject to renegotiation. The treaty covers the geographical are from 60°S. However prior to that some state and non state actors will most likely attempt to circumvent the treaty bans on resource extraction and non peaceful military activities upon the continent. Within the surrounding waters illegal and unreported fishing activities will continue, but at a far higher rate than currently. There will also be more surface and subsurface naval activity occurring below 60”S as nations protect their assets in the region. Currently the VMF (Russian Navy) are believed to be operating a regular SSBN patrol in the region using a boat from its Pacific Fleet Base Vladivostok. They believe that if they launch their ICBM over the South Pole the US will not be able to react as quickly because they are oriented towards missile launches from the east, Western Pacific, Russia and over the North Pole.
Within the next five to 15 years the PLAN will also be capable of undertaking such missions so 60°S and below between the longitude of Cape Horn – Tierra del Fuego and the longitude of Perth or Aden, will have SSBNs and SSNs cruising it on deterrence patrols and undertaking ASW respectively. Those vessels will also be transiting waters adjacent to the Realm of NZ, not forgetting that there are some real deep waters off our eastern coast with depths of 2,000 m not uncommon, especially in the Hikurungi Trench, around Kaikoura, off the South Island east coast from off Ashburton south, and below the South Island. A submarine can hide in Cook Strait due to the flow noise from the high tidal flow of 9 knots and the morphology of the strait. There have been incidents of Soviet Russian submarines being reported in the Cook Strait area during the Cold War.
So we will face challenges in our southern waters and below 60°S to our interests in and around Antarctica that will not be in our interests. When a state and / or non state actor breaches the Antarctic Treaty and the subsequent agreements by undertaking prohibited activities on or around the continent, we are not in a position to counter those activities. Finally it will most likely occur well before the current Treaty period lapses.
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