My two cents here.
Our current security environment that we live in is now more volatile than it has been in many many decades perhaps since WW2. This is the official position. Our current defence force that we have was built to support a different environment, less volatile and therefore we allowed our combat capabilities to reduce over time.
The big decision is how will we respond to this new environment. The fact that we are even discussing joining AUKUS shows to me a lean towards our historical partners who are stronger than us, as we are too small to stand alone. But because we are small does not mean that we do not need to contribute if we want their security support. I predict over 3-5 years our funding will get to 2% GDP.
As for funds, we have the money it is just a matter of prioritisation. Simple. Always has been.
Our GDP for 2023 was $405B. 2% of that is $8B. The Nato standard towards new kit is 20% of your budget, which is $2B a year.
The defence capability plan is out to 2040, 16 years.
From a Nato standpoint, we are Nato partners, what capability could be built with 40B of new kit over 16 years. This may seem unrealistic to some, but not compared to what other partners are doing and the change in the strategic environment. Please note, no one blinked when the Hercs and P8s were bought for Billions of dollars.
An Air Combat Force, could that be done for $10B?
A navy of 4 Frigates?
An additional hardened Battalion built for higher intensity?
Two transport vessels?
Drones across all domains?
Our Finance Minister was sitting next to Poland and Ukraine at a meeting in Europe not long ago, the fact that Ukraine is at war for survival and that Poland is spending 4% GDP on defence for a just in case scenario had a visible effect on her. Investing in deterrence is now understood at the top table. The cost of not investing is understood. We spend a little now or potential a lot later.
The other aspect to this is trade, our trade Minister has stated that Trade and Security are linked. This is not a statement that would of been made 5 years ago. We will not progress trade in SE Asia or with India without demonstrating that we put our resources where our mouths are.