I have read and and in the process of digesting the
Australian Defence Strategic Review 2023. There's been much discussion on it in the Aussie threads.
"1.2 At times, the strategic risks faced by Australia have been significant. In the early post-Second World War period, the onset of the Cold War, the risk of a third world war and the threat of nuclear armageddon were real prospects. Australia, however, was geographically remote from the strategic centre of gravity in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. Regional conflicts in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s posed a threat in the near region, but no power in the (now called) Indo-Pacific could contest the United States or fundamentally challenge or change the United States-led post-war order.
1.3 In the latter Cold War period, Australia faced no direct military threat. The post-Cold War era that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union featured the emergence of the United States-led unipolar order. The Global War on Terror era, although politically and militarily very significant, did not pose an existential threat to Australia, nor to the United States-led regional strategic order.
1.4 Australia’s strategic circumstances and the risks we face are now radically different. No longer is our Alliance partner, the United States, the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific. Intense China-United States competition is the defining feature of our region and our time. Major power competition in our region has the potential to threaten our interests, including the potential for conflict. The nature of conflict and threats have also changed.
1.5 Regional countries continue to modernise their military forces. China’s military build-up is now the largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of the Second World War. This has occurred alongside significant economic development, benefiting many countries in the Indo-Pacific, including Australia. This build-up is occurring without transparency or reassurance to the Indo-Pacific region of China’s strategic intent. China’s assertion of sovereignty over the South China Sea threatens the global rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific in a way that adversely impacts Australia’s national interests. China is also engaged in strategic competition in Australia’s near neighbourhood.
1.6 As a consequence, for the first time in 80 years, we must go back to fundamentals, to take a first-principles approach as to how we manage and seek to avoid the highest level of strategic risk we now face as a nation: the prospect of major conflict in the region that directly threatens our national interest." PP.23 - 24.
That, I think, sums up the issues that face us here in NZ. It is my belief that we need to consider that whilst we have Australia between us and any threats, it doesn't mean that the same threats don't apply to us. The Japanese threats and advances in the South West Pacific 1941 / 42 certainly proved that. It's something that NZ has forgotten unlike the Australians.
The DSR also speaks of resilience during times of strife, and that's something that many NZ govts have chosen to ignore, much to our peril. We have forgotten the lessons of WW2 and if we were placed in the same position today we wouldn't be anywhere as capable as what we were from 1942 - 45. This is something that we need to address promptly and the sooner the better. The timelines and urgency of the DSR equally apply here.
www.rnz.co.nz
www.1news.co.nz
www.thepost.co.nz
www.beehive.govt.nz
