NZDF General discussion thread

[Gibbo]

The NZ Govt Budget for FY 2022/23 is Thursday 19/5/2022. As usual the Budget reading starts at 2pm and details will be released on the Treasury website. I do not expect much out of it for Defence. WRT to last years budget given the rhetoric over the last 12 months from the Finance Minister I would expect Defence to take a hit. However, the Russo-Ukrainian war has changed things and the Finance Minister to may not get his way WRT Defence funding.

On another note, it appears that the PM is slowly moving NZ's foreign policy closer to the west and US than that previously held for the last 20 years. Apparently this is causing some angst amongst NZ foreign policy wonks, especially those in MFAT, who will now have to do some work and start thinking. If this is indeed the case then it is a good move and about time.

Ardern continues to forge a more US-friendly foreign policy | Stuff.co.nz

Finally Wellington are starting to awaken from a decades long slumber... although they're still in their dressing gowns drinking their 3rd coffee trying to wake up! There's a link in the Stuff article to an even more interesting article: Kurt Campbell: Where NZ has been ambivalent in the past

It's clearly a shot across the bows of China and also gives unavoidable transparency on expectations that NZ needs to do more...

"If there has been an area in the past where New Zealand has been more ambivalent, it has been occasionally on areas associated with hard security. I don't that will be the case going forward," he said. "I think there is an understanding that the challenges that are presenting themselves on the global stage are not so distant. They are closer and they have direct implications and New Zealand has a role in that.

I don't think it is in our interests to push New Zealand beyond its comfort zone but I do believe that there is a beginning of a discussion and debate about why New Zealand has to do more."

wow!

 

[Gibbo]

Another very good article in the public domain... this one highlighting the dire state of the NZDF at the moment. It gives good detail that most of the great unwashed will understand... the sort of detail that needs to be out there in the MSM. 'Insidious' loss of capability: The Defence Force's struggle to respond to emergencies big and small

Of course translating this to actually lifting spending is a huge leap... but with long lead times on projects momentum needs to be maintained. The opposition now has some fairly good fodder to throw at the Govt in the Defence portfolio so it'll be telling if they actually do make it an issue...if they don't then one would assume they are effectively indicating they don't want to spend the $$$ either.

 

[ngatimozart]

Another very good article in the public domain... this one highlighting the dire state of the NZDF at the moment. It gives good detail that most of the great unwashed will understand... the sort of detail that needs to be out there in the MSM. 'Insidious' loss of capability: The Defence Force's struggle to respond to emergencies big and small

Of course translating this to actually lifting spending is a huge leap... but with long lead times on projects momentum needs to be maintained. The opposition now has some fairly good fodder to throw at the Govt in the Defence portfolio so it'll be telling if they actually do make it an issue...if they don't then one would assume they are effectively indicating they don't want to spend the $$$ either.

Not bad and it illustrates the problem quite well. Whilst we here tend to focus on lack of capability, as Robert Ayson rightly points out, qualified personnel are also the other side of the coin, and NZDF are desperately short of those. More have voted with their feet since OP PROTECT got underway and people became disillusioned. It wasn't what they signed up to do and TBH it shouldn't have been a NZDF tasking at all. He's also correct about preceding governments of both parties reducing defence funding.

However more and substantial funding does need to occur not only to replace and restore old kit and capabilities, but also to ensure retention of current serving personnel, and to rebuild the human capabilities, potential and reserve. I think that now NZDF is in the most precarious and dilapidated state that it has been in 200 years. Put it this way if the kea went to war against us we'd be given a sound thrashing, and they are an endangered species.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Welp... ACT still talking about defence and still want to increase the budget on defece... it may become minor an election issue.. if we keep talking about it and more people write to the new outlets pointing out how bad it is and how concerning it is... (there has been some good ones recently) it may become a more than a minor issue

ACT's alternative budget: Bump up defence spending by $7bn to counter China's 'foothold in the Pacific'

 

[Rob c]

Welp... ACT still talking about defence and still want to increase the budget on defece... it may become minor an election issue.. if we keep talking about it and more people write to the new outlets pointing out how bad it is and how concerning it is... (there has been some good ones recently) it may become a more than a minor issue

ACT's alternative budget: Bump up defence spending by $7bn to counter China's 'foothold in the Pacific'

It is a start and with National having made a similar declaration we may see some thing happen. The big question will be if this happens, what will the money be spent on as most of our pollies have spent so little time on thinking about defence in the last 29 to 30 years they really have little idea on what is needed. I would suggest that a significant proportion of defence personnel that have been brought up in the current environment may not totally in tune with what is required to actually defend NZ. Conversations I have had with them in recent years indicate to me that some view them selves as in the disaster management role or peace keeping role. The real defence role will be a significant change in culture.

 

[Gooey]

The real defence role will be a significant change in culture.

It started with the warriors in the Air Force being made redundant with the loss of ACF, then the RNZN warfare officers with reduction to 0/1 FFH, then a whole range of specialists within Army (as, an aside, I wonder how our 105mm guns would survive in Ukraine?). Add in the career gymnastics of identity politics, Op Protect, and the reduced / ancient equipment overall, and this new culture is hardy surprising. Sadly, I have also experienced this first-hand when working with Wellington staff (always dangerous for moral at the best of times).

The so-what: is having to secure seconded, military personnel from elsewhere (ADF, UK, Canuk?) to provide full and frank defence advice, to the government, from professionals who have been exposed to modern warfare and doctrine; removing the anti-nuc powered law; returning to ANZUS; rebuilding a warrior culture within all of the services ... on top of securing increased funding that is starting to look like mission impossible for our pacifist, hermit kingdom.

As big a boy scout that I am, I just can't see this about turn in NZ national security policy being done in a meaningful way.

 

[recce.k1]

It started with the warriors in the Air Force being made redundant with the loss of ACF, then the RNZN warfare officers with reduction to 0/1 FFH, then a whole range of specialists within Army (as, an aside, I wonder how our 105mm guns would survive in Ukraine?). Add in the career gymnastics of identity politics, Op Protect, and the reduced / ancient equipment overall, and this new culture is hardy surprising. Sadly, I have also experienced this first-hand when working with Wellington staff (always dangerous for moral at the best of times).

The so-what: is having to secure seconded, military personnel from elsewhere (ADF, UK, Canuk?) to provide full and frank defence advice, to the government, from professionals who have been exposed to modern warfare and doctrine; removing the anti-nuc powered law; returning to ANZUS; rebuilding a warrior culture within all of the services ... on top of securing increased funding that is starting to look like mission impossible for our pacifist, hermit kingdom.

As big a boy scout that I am, I just can't see this about turn in NZ national security policy being done in a meaningful way.

Excellent points, from recent discussions on the NZ threads here it is clear that a critical priority is staffing and skillsets (as without them the kit becomes unusable ... even saleable in some cases)!

Perhaps incentives to have experienced personnel return and if possible to recruit from overseas? All this takes time of course, but a start needs to be made.

The other personnel (and kit) related issue appears to be that of "critical mass". For example why is the Navy (apparently) losing specialists? Ten years ago or so we were discussing the likes of marine technicians being attracted to the high-paid private sector. Is this still the case? Perhaps there is lack of career progression (or overload) if for example only operating two Frigates. Would greater Frigate numbers (or other vessels with combat and electronic warfare capabilities) allow for a larger personnel pool, with opportunities to progress and not be overworked (when taken from one role to fill another critical role etc)?

Another area where the Air Force appeared to have it covered was having 12 crews for the 8 NH90 helicopters when they came online. But is this still the case or has numbers been allowed to atrophy?

So perhaps for "critical mass" the obvious is to increase quantities of existing kit or roles where practical, along with personnel, to give Defence some options when taskings change due to Govt demands (and to allow for loss of some form or another).

Defence will have the solutions, they now need the opportunity and support (from Govt) to better grow their capabilities.

 

[Stuart M]

Paywalled site

China fishing deal reels in Solomon Islands (theaustralian.com.au)

----
The MOU says China and the Solomon Islands will conduct “investment co-operation” in key fields, including “port wharves, submarine optical cable construction, ship building and ship repair”, and undertake “exploration and development of offshore oil, gas and mineral resources”.

It will promote policies to “jointly establish marine economic co-operation parks and deep-sea fishing bases”, and pledges co-operation on “photovoltaic, wind power, tidal power and other clean energy” projects.
--------
MOU link (PDF)

DocScan_05_06_2022.pdf (theaustralian.com.au)

Articles 3 and 4 are most interesting and article 5 is actually quite funny if one recalls the CCP's reaction to adverse finding against it by international bodies.

So, here comes the Chinese fishing fleet.. undoubtedly with its 'minders' operating and maintained out of out of deep sea bases in the Solomon Islands.

There is also this. This is from the pre-covid world, but I suspect that something like is still being considered or actively planned.

Leaked documents reveal Chinese company's aviation plans for Solomon Islands to become a 'regional hub' - ABC News

"The MOU also lays out an ambition to upgrade almost three dozen airstrips across Solomon Islands, saying the purchase of planes is "in combination and is linked to facilitating the upgrade of Solomon Islands domestic airfields in 2 phases. For Phase 1, up to 15 airfields; for Phase 2, the remaining 20 airfields"."

To what extent will they be upgraded and to what length, one wonders?


As ever, one can say with a straight face that there will be no militarily bases in the Solomons, but there is no reason why something cannot be duel use.. so that straight face looks like its about to break into a laugh, especially when these two items are taken in conjunction.

 

[Gracie1234]

Solomon Islands will be set up as a maintenance and support hub for the exploitation of the rest of the pacific. Seems very short-sighted to me.

 

[Stuart M]

Excellent points, from recent discussions on the NZ threads here it is clear that a critical priority is staffing and skillsets (as without them the kit becomes unusable ... even saleable in some cases)!

Perhaps incentives to have experienced personnel return and if possible to recruit from overseas? All this takes time of course, but a start needs to be made.

The other personnel (and kit) related issue appears to be that of "critical mass". For example why is the Navy (apparently) losing specialists? Ten years ago or so we were discussing the likes of marine technicians being attracted to the high-paid private sector. Is this still the case? Perhaps there is lack of career progression (or overload) if for example only operating two Frigates. Would greater Frigate numbers (or other vessels with combat and electronic warfare capabilities) allow for a larger personnel pool, with opportunities to progress and not be overworked (when taken from one role to fill another critical role etc)?

Another area where the Air Force appeared to have it covered was having 12 crews for the 8 NH90 helicopters when they came online. But is this still the case or has numbers been allowed to atrophy?

So perhaps for "critical mass" the obvious is to increase quantities of existing kit or roles where practical, along with personnel, to give Defence some options when taskings change due to Govt demands (and to allow for loss of some form or another).

Defence will have the solutions, they now need the opportunity and support (from Govt) to better grow their capabilities.

Is it still true that defence keep moving its staff around every 2-2.5 years? Because if that's still the case, the needs of the service quickly become subordinate to the needs of the wife and kids. There is also the ongoing question of dealing with the rising cost of accommodation etc.

 

[Stuart M]

Solomon Islands will be set up as a maintenance and support hub for the exploitation of the rest of the pacific. Seems very short-sighted to me.

And that will be defended.. domestically against the local population via the security pact and if NZ and Australia complain i'm sure that Sogavare can be persuaded to again say that the Solomon are threatened with invasion and ask the CCP to defend the Solomons sovereignty.

Australia defends Solomon Islands ties as row over China escalates - BBC News

"We deplore the continual demonstration of lack of trust by the concerned parties, and tacit warning of military intervention in Solomon Islands if their national interest is undermined in Solomon Islands," Mr Sogavare said.
"In other words, we are threatened with invasion."

 

[Redlands18]

Is it still true that defence keep moving its staff around every 2-2.5 years? Because if that's still the case, the needs of the service quickly become subordinate to the needs of the wife and kids. There is also the ongoing question of dealing with the rising cost of accommodation etc.

Having spent 20 years in the Australian Army where all members are automatically entitled to accommodation at subsidised rates, both single and married and free removals, I find that NZDF members have to find there own accommodation extraordinary. In my time we tended to do a 6 year stint in one area/city/base, with 2 postings to different Units, sometimes you may have to move house but all expenses were paid for.

 

[Stuart M]

Having spent 20 years in the Australian Army where all members are automatically entitled to accommodation at subsidised rates, both single and married and free removals, I find that NZDF members have to find there own accommodation extraordinary. In my time we tended to do a 6 year stint in one area/city/base, with 2 postings to different Units, sometimes you may have to move house but all expenses were paid for.

Im not sure what the state of play is now.. iirc its was market rents and no expenses if you have to move. I expect other forumites will be more informed though.

 

[ngatimozart]

Having spent 20 years in the Australian Army where all members are automatically entitled to accommodation at subsidised rates, both single and married and free removals, I find that NZDF members have to find there own accommodation extraordinary. In my time we tended to do a 6 year stint in one area/city/base, with 2 postings to different Units, sometimes you may have to move house but all expenses were paid for.

When I was in NZDF it was about 3 years for permanent postings, subsidised married quarters for married bods and later those living in sin, all moving expenses paid, singlies if they decided to live off base then that was at their own expense. Our pay was always low compared to civvy street and other FVEY services so that was our "perk" so to speak. Then so pollies decoded that everybody had to pay market rates for accommodation and they sold off most of the married quarters. That was in the 2000s - 2010s from memory. It absolutely stinks and as far as I am concerned is despicable.

 

[Stuart M]

When I was in NZDF it was about 3 years for permanent postings, subsidised married quarters for married bods and later those living in sin, all moving expenses paid, singlies if they decided to live off base then that was at their own expense. Our pay was always low compared to civvy street and other FVEY services so that was our "perk" so to speak. Then so pollies decoded that everybody had to pay market rates for accommodation and they sold off most of the married quarters. That was in the 2000s - 2010s from memory. It absolutely stinks and as far as I am concerned is despicable.

It stinks and is one of the reasons for low retention. Another being moving around too much.

 

[Redlands18]

When I was in NZDF it was about 3 years for permanent postings, subsidised married quarters for married bods and later those living in sin, all moving expenses paid, singlies if they decided to live off base then that was at their own expense. Our pay was always low compared to civvy street and other FVEY services so that was our "perk" so to speak. Then so pollies decoded that everybody had to pay market rates for accommodation and they sold off most of the married quarters. That was in the 2000s - 2010s from memory. It absolutely stinks and as far as I am concerned is despicable.

Defence Housing Australia | Homepage

Defence Housing Australia provides housing and services to Australian Defence Force members and their families, we sell and rent investment properties and undertake land and property development, acquisitions and upgrades.

dha.gov.au

Married quarters for the ADF are done through Defence Housing Australia(DHA) and the way it works is. They lease a House from the public for a period between 3-12 years and the rental payment is guaranteed whether the house is occupied or not.

 

[Rob c]

When I was in NZDF it was about 3 years for permanent postings, subsidised married quarters for married bods and later those living in sin, all moving expenses paid, singlies if they decided to live off base then that was at their own expense. Our pay was always low compared to civvy street and other FVEY services so that was our "perk" so to speak. Then so pollies decoded that everybody had to pay market rates for accommodation and they sold off most of the married quarters. That was in the 2000s - 2010s from memory. It absolutely stinks and as far as I am concerned is despicable.

These were the conditions I had from memory, I think that when I was in a married quarter as a SNCO the rent was less than 10% of my gross salary, we also had access to a low interest mortgage system if we wanted to buy our own house. From memory the interest was 3% for the first 5 years and fixed at 5% for the rest of the duration. This was when mortgage interest rates were in excess of 10% and the defence budget was in excess of 2% GDP. That system got me our first home.
If I had a say in how any increase in the defence budget was spent my first two priorities would be 1. to improve the terms and conditions of the serving personnel and 2. to improve our surveillance ability to ensure we new what is going on in our area, both sea and airborne as these are the only way you can approach NZ. After that we would need to be able to control these approaches.

 

[Simon Ewing Jarvie]

Here's the second part of my article on NZDF attrition. Since publishing it a couple of days ago, I have had several recent exit pers advise that the scene was already set for the inward collapse and that Covid just provided the trigger. Curing NZDF’s Long Covid

 

[jbc388]

Here's the second part of my article on NZDF attrition. Since publishing it a couple of days ago, I have had several recent exit pers advise that the scene was already set for the inward collapse and that Covid just provided the trigger. Curing NZDF’s Long Covid

That is an excellant article with some good ideas that unfortunately the current govt/next govt just will not take it on board! No votes in it!!
We have current defence chiefs/leaders who have the current train of thought that if " I don't make to many waves I can be comfortable in my current position " and ride it out until retirement!
Then New Zealand has a current defence minister who is just not interested in the "Job" who is really only part-time! if you can find him!! and not interested in rebuilding the defence force, also a minister of finance has no interest in the NZDF as there are no "votes in it"
New Zealand now really has no combat force projection at all now it's all HDAR!! I have just met up with an old friend who has just left actually due to the MIQ situation! he told me soldiers now don't seem to think they have to train for warfighting! just peacekeeping and HDAR missions, The ministry of health should have been doing this (but having delt with them for work for years they would have made a "pigs ear" of MIQ).
The NZDF has now lost this skillset! which will take years to achieve and the way things are looking in the world time is running out!
That also open's up another major problem for the NZDF not being equipped for combat operations not enough personal, ships, lack of transport aircraft numbers, also lack of rotary aircraft,maritime survaillance, suitable armour for ground forces, anti aircraft missile systems, no fast jets the list goes on and on!!

All this has accured on the watches of both major political parties over the last 40 years and is going to bite us on the backside in the near future as China is steadly making inroads in the Pacific and NZ's sphere of influence which is now shrinking due to not being able to patrol effectively with only a few ships and a couple of aircraft!

 

[Rob c]

All this has accured on the watches of both major political parties over the last 40 years a

I think that 40 years is a little harsh I think 30
The 1980's were possibly the best for equipment buying or refitting for some time.
From memory the navy got Wellington and Southland then later in the decade the 2 ANZACs were ordered along with 2 possibles.
The army got the Unimogs new Land Rovers the Scorpions, new rifles and the 105's
the Air force got additional skyhawks rom the RAN, the P3's updated plus an additional P3, the Skyhawks Were rebuilt to a high standard and new missiles came. the Macchi's were ordered. and the defence budget was around 2.5 to 3% GDP. This list is by no means exhaustive.
The rot really set in with the new National Government in 1990's with Ruth Richardson's Mother of all budgets and Helen Clark continued the destruction. The following governments have simply limped along not wanting to compromise their money for votes agenda.