Boardgamer88
Member
What do you think is the likelihood of China sending military aid to Russia?
Also, 1st time posting!
NZDF General discussion thread
- Thread starter NZLAV
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Also, 1st time posting!
Some companies are moving some assembly out, but are they moving out the component manufacturing? In my industry companies are still moving to China, they have to it’s the largest market.
You glossed over China being the world largest luxury goods market, the biggest new vehicle market, one of the largest suppliers of many minerals. Sanctioning the US would be far easier than sanctioning China.
The world is changing, the US has scored so many own goals over the past decade it’s place at the top of the pile is ending. 10 years ago it would be unthinkable for Saudi Arabia to even consider trading oil in any currency other than USD, they are now considering trading in Yuan. If Saudi changes other OPEC countries will likely follow, take away the petrodollar and the US is in a world of hurt.
Remember there are 8 billion people on the planet, the western alliance accounts for less than 1 billion of them. What happens when all these 7b people decide they don’t want to be controlled/told what to do by Washington, London and Brussels.
Sanction China and I believe it’s going to hurt the west/us more than it will hurt them, they still have the rest of the world to trade with.
Welcome aboard.
I actually don't know and I wouldn't want to put a probability on it. The current relationship between the PRC and Russia is somewhat complex and I think that despite all the talk around it, it as purely a transactional relationship from the CCP point of view. The Russians have something that they want, and they do what it takes to get it. At present their interests align and that is advantageous to the CCP probably more than to Putin, because from the CCP POV it will stand to gain more out of the relationship. Russia has technologies and knowledge that CCP still requires such as jet engine metallurgy and it can't steal that knowledge or experience. It is gaining much experience and knowledge but its metallurgy isn't up to the latest Russian level yet. So it still buys Russian fighter engines etc.
I get the impression that Putin wants a closer security pact with the Chinese but the CCP is holding back, being a bit more cautious and Putin's attack and war on Ukraine has shown the wisdom of that. The CCP see themselves as the dominant partner in this relationship and I think that is a fair assumption because they only two areas that Russia is really superior to them is in nuclear weapons capability and natural resources such as hydrocarbons. From the Russian POV they need the PRC money and that has been true for quite a while and that is why the are the subordinate partner in the relationship.
The CCP will be looking at what's best for them in the long term and what's most advantageous for the least amount of risk. The response by the EU, NATO, US, UK and rest of the world to Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be of considerable concern to them because, like Putin, they believed that the EU, NATO and the west was fractured and easily pliable. This has been shown not to be and they will be rethinking their next moves. They've also picked a fight with the EU over their illegal embargoing of Lithuanian trade goods and attempts to threaten third country's firms from doing business in or with Lithuania. The EU has taken the PRC to the WTO for illegal trade practices. Australia has also applied to be a party to that action.
The trouble is the CCP mindset and whether the backlash against Russia will be enough to give them pause. There's a definite arrogance within the CCP, especially amongst the higher echelon, that they are not subject to foreign rules and that foreigners should do as they are told. In the last few years there's also an arrogance amongst their foreign diplomatic corp that they can do as they please and this is the much vaunted "wolf diplomacy" which really appeals to the nationalistic fervour that exist within the PRC. The CCP has a habit of whipping up nationalistic fervour when things aren't so good at home and at present things aren't the best domestically.
There is also the factional fighting within the CCP which is common within all political parties. However at present the factional fighting within the CCP is between two factions; Xi Jinping's faction and the Jiang Zemin faction which is quite deadly. The Jiang faction goes right back to Deng Xiaoping's time. When Zhao Ziyang was fired because of his lack of socialist discipline during the student demonstrations in 1989 that ended with the Tiananmen Square massacre by the PLA-GF, Deng ended up having to replace him with Jiang Zemin, and Deng didn't trust him or like him, but his hand was forced. He probably knew that Jiang was corrupt but he couldn't force him out. Since then the Jiang faction has always been associated with excessive corruption. Everyone accuses Putin of being a kleptomaniac, but he's a baby compared to the Jiang faction. So when Xi went on his anti corruption drive he made a lot of very highly placed enemies including those in the PLA and security forces. If Xi loses the vote in November to extend his term, his continued life span will be measured in days.
So it's not really cut and dried and that's what makes it so difficult to determine what they will do because of the internal as well as the external politics.
They import a lot of coal, food iron ore, energy etc. If it's sanctioned where are they going to get it from? And how are they going to pay for it because they will be kicked out of SWIFT? Because the third countries who supply it to them will be sanctioned as well.
Shanesworld
Well-Known Member
There have been efforts to setup an alternative to swift in the past. Dont know how far they got but it was a BRIC effort.
Two chinese companies rather wisely bought into systematics which was one if the first major pieces of banking software in i think the early 1990's. I used it when i worked for national bank of new zealand and so does lloyds. It typically has a nice windows based user interface over the front but generally alot of key nodes around the world use systematics still. It is rumoured that thats how the chinese foreign service have gleamed alot of transactional info from major corporates and avenues into industries of interest.
They'll have plans to get want they want.
And they have been stockpiling.
Flip side is they have major food issues. They (again according to Peyer Zeihan) slaughtered more pigs in 2021 than in the rest of the world due to an outbreak of swine ebola. Pork is a major food source in china.
Some of my suppliers are actively pursuing other locations for manufacture or suppliers and telling us to prepare for further shortages while they shift. Automotive connectors, heat shrink, wire, ali sheet and a printer toner cartridge.
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Gracie1234
Well-Known Member
I think you will find that China has upset a lot more countries than just the west. The actions taken within the fishing grounds of South America have not gone down well, the South China Sea interactions are well known, as well as the resource exploitation of Africa, are all areas of concern.
There has been a huge capital flight out of China with investment going to other completing low-cost manufacturing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.
China is a strong powerful country that deserves a seat at the table but it does have weaknesses and relies on a large number of imports, raw materials and food. We are all very interconnected and any action will have significant consequences globally.
My concern is that the current situation might be used to accelerate agendas towards China.
They import a lot of those things from Russia. How are you going to sanction that?
They will use CIPS, several banks in NZ and Australia use it already. It's growing, with the US kicking Russia out of SWIFT what do you think a lot of countries/financial institutions are going to do?
Cross-Border Interbank Payment System - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
You talk about third parties being sanctioned which is exactly my point, all these sanctions are doing is cause more problems then they resolve. I don't think you understand this. I believe the world is rapidly moving away from the US and Europe, the West is no longer trustworthy.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I would be interesting to see what a CCP financially controlled world would look like several decades from now. A four letter word starting with “S” IMO.They import a lot of those things from Russia. Who are you going to sanction that?
They will use CIPS, several banks in NZ and Australia use it already. It's growing, with the US kicking Russia out of SWIFT what do you think a lot of countries/financial institutions are going to do?
Cross-Border Interbank Payment System - Wikipedia
You talk about third parties being sanctioned which is exactly my point, all these sanctions are doing is cause more problems then they resolve. I don't think you understand this. I believe the world is rapidly moving away from the US and Europe, the West is no longer trustworthy.
If they make the same mistakes as the controllers of Swift have then someone else will start up another system.
It'll be a long time before they can meet all their import needs of those things from Russia. Consider gas & oil, for example. They'd need a lot more means to transport them. Pipelines go the wrong way. Russia exports a lot of wheat, but much of it goes through the Black Sea, & those exports were suspended for a while after the invasion, & last I heard were still reduced. And China imports a lot of foods that Russia can't supply. It might get good deals on Russian iron ore, if transport is available (a big if!): the biggest buyer of Russian ore was Ukraine, & China second, but China shot itself in the foot over Australian ore.
danonz
Member
I think the sanctions are part of the problem they get thrown around by politicians trying to look good because they don't have any other options. After Russia was Sanctioned for Crimea mainly from pressure from the USA on the Europeans. I think they saw that as almost a declaration of war against the Russian Federation. I think If the USA keeps using its $ as weapon it will eventually not be the worlds reserve currency, other large international players will see what is happening now and plan for the future.
Boardgamer88
Member
So new zealand is stepping up it contribution to Ukraine
www.1news.co.nz
NZ to send body armour, helmets, camouflage vests to Ukraine
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern also announced New Zealand would give an additional $5 million in aid.
Gracie1234
Well-Known Member
I presume the kit being sent is old and no longer needed. The generation before the current.
Looking at what is happening in the world is quite extraordinary, it could well be the beginning of a rollback of globalisation. A world where liberal democracy trade with each other but not with other forms of government. Sounds like Cold War 2 to me.
Economically many countries would be keen on this, as it would create the China economic miracle for them. Massive inflows of capital as countries set up factories within their borders. Japan has provided funding to help some of their businesses move away from China, other countries have provided huge tax breaks such as Thailand.
Would all of this be painful, yep. Should it, will it be done.....i really do not know, but as a country, we will be impacted and need to prepare for a larger number of scenarios that we will not have a choice in responding to.
Sitting on the fence and playing both sides is getting harder as the fence is getting more narrow with less room to manoeuvre.
Looking at what is happening in the world is quite extraordinary, it could well be the beginning of a rollback of globalisation. A world where liberal democracy trade with each other but not with other forms of government. Sounds like Cold War 2 to me.
Economically many countries would be keen on this, as it would create the China economic miracle for them. Massive inflows of capital as countries set up factories within their borders. Japan has provided funding to help some of their businesses move away from China, other countries have provided huge tax breaks such as Thailand.
Would all of this be painful, yep. Should it, will it be done.....i really do not know, but as a country, we will be impacted and need to prepare for a larger number of scenarios that we will not have a choice in responding to.
Sitting on the fence and playing both sides is getting harder as the fence is getting more narrow with less room to manoeuvre.
kiwipatriot69
Active Member
If it wasn't Russia /Ukraine it could quite easily have been a Taiwan /China situation forcing the world to do sanctions which the threat of nuclear weapons if we send military assistance.
Another probable future scenario to worry about. In my honest opinion we should of been divesting from Chinese trade /diversifying with other trading partners decades ago.
"The democratic world’s response to Moscow’s aggression and war crimes is right, both ethically and on national security grounds. This is more important than economic efficiency. But these actions do have negative economic consequences that will go far beyond Russia’s financial collapse, that will persist, and that are not pretty. Over the last 20 years, two trends have already been corroding globalization in the face of its supposedly relentless onward march. First, populists and nationalists have erected barriers to free trade, investment, immigration, and the spread of ideas—especially in the United States. Second, Beijing’s challenge to the rules-based international economic system and to longstanding security arrangements in Asia has encouraged the West to erect barriers to Chinese economic integration. The Russian invasion and resulting sanctions will now make this corrosion even worse.
There are several reasons why. First, China is attempting to navigate a nonconfrontational response to the Russian invasion. Both its financial system and its real economy are observing the sanctions because of the potential economic retaliation if they finance or supply Russia, let alone bail Moscow out. But anything short of fully joining the blockade will feed anti-Chinese policies in the West, reducing the country’s economic integration. Second, countries fear being subject to the whims of Washington’s economic might, now that it is re-enamored with its apparent power. Right now, the United States’ economic actions may be just, and there may be little risk of countries not invading Ukraine ending up on the wrong side of U.S. policies. But the next time, the United States may be more selfish or capricious." The End of Globalization? | Foreign Affairs
Globalisation will end at some point because it did the last time it occurred which was at the end of the 19th Century and the first decade and the 20th Century ending with the start of the First World War. After WW1 it took another 70 years before globalisation was attempted again. In between times countries were quite trade protective and some still are that way despite globalisation. The article quoted above goes on to posit that globalisation is ending because of the Ukrainian war and the sanctions on Russia that are wrecking its economy.
The Saudis are considering selling their oil to the PRC priced in the yuan instead of the US$ which would mean that they would be sidestepping the US$. They are somewhat cranky with the US at the moment. Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales - WSJ. I read elsewhere that some of the Arab Gulf countries are considering following the Saudi lead. I think that Iran may also begin to accept payment from the PRC for its oil in yuan as well instead of the current bartering arrangement. However at present the yuan payments still have to go through SWIFT, and Iran is blacklisted by SWIFT.
All of this means considerable burning of the midnite oil by the denizens who inhabit the MFAT and Treasury dungeons in Wellington, as they try to figure out what's happening. That's if they've picked up on it yet. The end of globalisation will have a considerable impact upon the NZ economy and it is highly probable that it will lead to an increase in international tensions because trade has always been a double edged sword. It can bring nations closer together because of mutual interests, or it can create rivalries between nations resulting in greater competition leading to mutual antagonism and possibly war. We already have one unscrupulous nation in the region that is known to steal intellectual property, industrial secrets, and trade secrets, without any compunction, and it's not scared to bully nations smaller than itself, to get what it wants.
So we have an emerging global substantial risk to our economy and an increasing geopolitical and geostrategic threat in our region that will be harmful to our sovereignty, economy, security, and wellbeing. We don't have an all encompassing National Security Strategy in order to plan to mitigate and survive these threats because our pollies have their heads stuck in the sand.
I see that our glorious MIA Minister is undertaking a promenade to Fiji and Australia upon who's Ministers of Defence he shall impart his wisdom and copious knowledge of Defence only surpassed by Napoleon and Alexander the Great.
Minister of Defence to visit Fiji and Australia | Beehive.govt.nz
Minister of Defence to visit Fiji and Australia | Beehive.govt.nz
I can imagine Australian Defence Minister, Peter Dutton, having a few 'quiet' words with his NZ counterpart. If he hasn't already. Dutton certainly doesn't hold back. Should be interesting!
I hope he does.
kiwi in exile
Active Member
Contrast this with the kind of rhetoric we get from out PM, Minister of foreign affairs and DefMin
'May very well destroy the man himself': Dutton says Putin miscalculated war in Ukraine
Ardern was asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin could be called a war criminal.
"It's not for me to make a judgement that is for our international bodies to make. Is what he's doing morally wrong and reprehensible. Absolutely. Should he be held to account by the world? Yes."
www.1news.co.nz
I know its not her place to legally designate him a criminal of war crimes, but FFS
'May very well destroy the man himself': Dutton says Putin miscalculated war in Ukraine
Ardern was asked if Russian President Vladimir Putin could be called a war criminal.
"It's not for me to make a judgement that is for our international bodies to make. Is what he's doing morally wrong and reprehensible. Absolutely. Should he be held to account by the world? Yes."
NZ to send body armour, helmets, camouflage vests to Ukraine
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern also announced New Zealand would give an additional $5 million in aid.
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