There are 2 big dead rats and 1 smaller dead rat with respect to New Zealand and the ANZAC relationship.
1. The 1986 Nuclear Free legislation.
2. The cancellation of the F-16 order and subsequent exit from the Nowra agreement and demise of the RNZAF Air Combat capability.
3. The smaller dead rat being the cancellation of the 3rd and 4th Anzac Class vessels.
Shortly Australia will fly 14 P-8A's and 4 MC-55's in other words maintaining 18 Airframes, however we will be reducing from six P-3K2's down to just four P-8A's.
What I posted above obviously struck a nerve and I thank those 12 people who ticked like. But the reality is that NZ has diluted substantially to almost non existence / part-time its combat capabilities that could contribute to the joint ADF/NZDF strategic weight that prior to 2000 it was genuinely attempting to achieve on a policy level per the 1997 DWP (which widely consulted the ADF/CoA) and unlike the Clark government did not in the Beyond 2000 and Defence Sustainability Initiative documents,
In the earlier post I said that the Nuclear Free legislation we can assume is the one dead rat New Zealand will refuse to swallow. The recent AUUKUS arrangement with the subs deal in a way is not a direct co-relative situation due to sub operations. The indirect side of the arrangement that is a different matter and will mean that New Zealand has to confront existential realities for the first time in a generation with respect to its defence posture.
As I noted tangible offensive capabilities are required from us to contribute to the Indo-Pacific security umbrella and in this part of that region this means bolstering and taking on some of that burden virtually all now shouldered on the ADF and effectively the Australian taxpayer.
The current DCP has the Anzac replacement pencilled in. The task ahead is to make that replacement project a proper capability - and the small dead rat to swallow is buying more than two surface combatants. The P-8A replacement is at hand. Another small dead rat is to acquire numbers that are at least a 1:1 replacement rather the current reduction to just four.
So if Jacindarella and the NZ political class won't swallow the Nuclear Free dead rat ..... the NZ political class sure as hell better start preparing the dinner table to swallow a few of these dead rats.
There are a lot of good things in the current DCP and I would not meddle with that and hopefully the higher end of the spending plan comes into fruition. But it is the missing things - the gaping capability gaps that are the concern not just for NZ, but for Australia to provide greater weight at the sharp end, and the wider security amongst our Indo-Pacific partners whom we benefit from and trade with.
That leaves the final dead rat to swallow which is an Air Combat capability. Below are edits (for reasons of space and brevity) the two reviews done prior to the cancellation of the the F-16 deal hitting the key relevant points.
Recommendations of the Final Report of the Air Combat Capability Study—October 1998 - Sir Wilson Whineray
This study recommends that the Secretary of Defence:
- Note that this study
has confirmed the White Paper
requirement for New Zealand to retain an air combat capability.
- Note that an air combat capability has
high utility in contributing to New Zealand’s defence strategy of self-reliance in partnership, including low level
security challenges to New Zealand sovereignty, our
security relationship with Australia, and
supporting regional and global security.
- Note that the study has confirmed the three operational roles of Close Air Support, Air Interdiction and
Maritime Strike, as the best match with New Zealand’s security requirements.
- Agree that New Zealand should not consider further an Attack Helicopter or Light Attack Aircraft as a replacement for the A-4K Skyhawk.
We should also not consider the P-3K Orion as the sole maritime strike capability.
- Agree that the operational performance and policy value of a
current production fourth generation multi-role fighter aircraft such as an F-16C/D makes it the
only capability option for meeting air combat capability requirements over the longer term.
The Quigley Report 2000
Review Of The Lease Of F-16 Aircraft For The Royal New Zealand Air Force
by the Hon. Derek Quigley
Summary and Conclusions:
1. This review is based on
three long-standing defence policy assumptions:
· that
balanced forces should be available to enable New Zealand to contribute to alliance operations;
· that
air combat capability is an essential part of a balanced force; and
· that the
three designated roles for the air combat force, close air support, air interdiction and maritime strike are appropriate for the NZDF's air combat capability.
8. In terms of existing policy,
the critical mass for the air combat force is a squadron of 18 aircraft.
20. The abandonment of the Air Combat Capability would be a fundamental departure from existing policy and would have major implications on an NZDF-wide basis. There would also be diplomatic issues involved.
21. Viewed from New Zealand's point of view, there are benefits in having well-trained and well equipped Defence Force personnel. New Zealand would lose a great deal across all three services if the level of access to leading-edge military professionalism and experience were reduced.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. That the Government consider approaching the United States Government with a view to renegotiate the current F-16 package to include a lesser number of aircraft.
2. That all Defence projects be reviewed as a matter of urgency, on a project by project basis, with a view to prioritising and funding them on the basis of their capacity - judged from an NZDF-wide perspective - to advance New Zealand's national interests.
The above pretty much is more relevant, more urgent today in 2021 than 21 years ago.
I congratulate the Morrison government on its bold, ballsy move on Friday with the Nuke deal and the AUKUS agreement. It is high time that the NZ Government got over itself and started sharpening the knives, and did the bold and ballsy, to fest on this last dead rat they must devour.
It should be the litmus test of commitment.