NZDF General discussion thread

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Te Kaha looks to be arriving back on Sunday:

As long as it doesn't upset the Cup racing ;) Wouldn't want one of them multimillion dollar bespoke foiling yachts hitting Te Kaha when they're doing 50 knots. Already the Pommy team has gone into whinge mode.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The Summer 2020 edition of Line of Defence is out. Ex Minister of Defence Wayne Mapp in his column writes:

"New Zealand joining the recent Five Eyes communique about Hong Kong could probably be seen in this light. Our role in Iraq and Afghanistan can also be measured this way. Perhaps the most skillful of such strategic calculations was Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s decision to send a squadron of F 18 aircraft to Iraq in 2003. It was a high profile contribution, but it also had minimal risk of . Arguably Prime Minister Morrison has not been so adroit. Asking for an apology (in relation to Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao posting of an offensive fake image on Twitter) when there is no chance it would ever be made is not looking for a pathway out of the dilemma."​

Well Wayno, Scott Morrison had every right to demand an apology from the CCP / PRC authorities over that offensive image. It is how the CCP reacted that gives truth to their intentions and the two faced lies that they have been telling the world. I suggest that you read this article: China Lodges a War Against Australian Sovereignty | Defense.info and this may enlighten you to what is happening in the real world. Ross Babbage is a well respected author and a subject matter expert. I would further suggest that you read Prof Anne-Marie Brady's work on the CCP and its workings. She is a world authority on the topic. What the CCP / PRC is doing to Australia is not a trade war but a war against sovereignty. That is what Babbage wrote and if you look at the 14 demands made by the PRC of Australia to settle the dispute you can see that they are not about trade but sovereignty, pure and simple.

1608625688411.png
Source: 'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

So that's what we are facing and having to fight against as well Wayno.

Then Wayno went on to write this:

New Zealand’s defence procurement choices raise possibilities to send a signal to our various partners as to where our priorities lie. Successive Defence Reviews clearly indicate our priority is the South West Pacific, essentially from the Equator to the Antarctic. All of New Zealand’s sovereign territory and the realm countries are within this zone. It is an immense area of the world.
New Zealand’s defence assets are broadly configured to cover this region, although the small number of platforms means the coverage is episodic. Some assets, in particular, the frigates and the Orion aircraft, soon to be replaced by the Poseidon aircraft, have more utility outside the region. However, the immensity of the region is such that only the Orion/Poseidon aircraft have the range and endurance to undertake surveillance within the region and thus are the appropriate choice.
Within the next three to five years, New Zealand will have to make the choice on what ships will replace the two Anzac frigates. The current upgrades will see the frigates through to the early 2030’s, which will be 35 years after they entered service. Their replacements need to be planned now.
It would be a legitimate choice for New Zealand to replace the frigates and the current offshore patrol vessels with much more capable offshore patrol vessels, such as the Canadian Harry DeWolf class, capable of navigating the waters from the Equator to the Antarctic. They may be less useful outside the South West Pacific, but there is certainly enough maritime patrol, humanitarian and environmental work to keep them busy within the region.
Such a decision has a number of advantages. They are cheaper than frigates. They ensure better patrol capabilities within our region, while being less concerned with matters outside our region. We have other defence assets that would be more useful for coalition tasks, including the new tanker/logistics vessel, the Aotearoa, as well as the new Poseidon aircraft.
Such a choice would clearly show that our principal interests are within the South West Pacific. It would also show that New Zealand has not built a defence force that replicates, on a small scale, the expeditionary capabilities of our larger partners, but neither are we so insular that we have no capabilities that can contribute to wider coalition roles. (Emphasis mine)​

So according to Wayno we just get rid of our frigates whilst we have an adversary moving within the South Pacific that is waging a political war against our closest friend, neighbour, family member, and only ally. Has he forgotten that we have defence and security responsibilities for nations in the South Pacific? It seems that Wayno has entered his dotage or has become a member of the Auckland Peace Action Group. This is certainly not an article written by someone who has the security and defence of NZ's sovereignty at heart. Who's he working for now? Maybe he's a hidden Treasury operative.

Summer 2020/21 - Defsec pp30 - 31.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Summer 2020 edition of Line of Defence is out. Ex Minister of Defence Wayne Mapp in his column writes:

"New Zealand joining the recent Five Eyes communique about Hong Kong could probably be seen in this light. Our role in Iraq and Afghanistan can also be measured this way. Perhaps the most skillful of such strategic calculations was Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s decision to send a squadron of F 18 aircraft to Iraq in 2003. It was a high profile contribution, but it also had minimal risk of . Arguably Prime Minister Morrison has not been so adroit. Asking for an apology (in relation to Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao posting of an offensive fake image on Twitter) when there is no chance it would ever be made is not looking for a pathway out of the dilemma."​

Well Wayno, Scott Morrison had every right to demand an apology from the CCP / PRC authorities over that offensive image. It is how the CCP reacted that gives truth to their intentions and the two faced lies that they have been telling the world. I suggest that you read this article: China Lodges a War Against Australian Sovereignty | Defense.info and this may enlighten you to what is happening in the real world. Ross Babbage is a well respected author and a subject matter expert. I would further suggest that you read Prof Anne-Marie Brady's work on the CCP and its workings. She is a world authority on the topic. What the CCP / PRC is doing to Australia is not a trade war but a war against sovereignty. That is what Babbage wrote and if you look at the 14 demands made by the PRC of Australia to settle the dispute you can see that they are not about trade but sovereignty, pure and simple.

View attachment 47870
Source: 'If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy': Beijing's fresh threat to Australia

So that's what we are facing and having to fight against as well Wayno.

Then Wayno went on to write this:

New Zealand’s defence procurement choices raise possibilities to send a signal to our various partners as to where our priorities lie. Successive Defence Reviews clearly indicate our priority is the South West Pacific, essentially from the Equator to the Antarctic. All of New Zealand’s sovereign territory and the realm countries are within this zone. It is an immense area of the world.
New Zealand’s defence assets are broadly configured to cover this region, although the small number of platforms means the coverage is episodic. Some assets, in particular, the frigates and the Orion aircraft, soon to be replaced by the Poseidon aircraft, have more utility outside the region. However, the immensity of the region is such that only the Orion/Poseidon aircraft have the range and endurance to undertake surveillance within the region and thus are the appropriate choice.
Within the next three to five years, New Zealand will have to make the choice on what ships will replace the two Anzac frigates. The current upgrades will see the frigates through to the early 2030’s, which will be 35 years after they entered service. Their replacements need to be planned now.
It would be a legitimate choice for New Zealand to replace the frigates and the current offshore patrol vessels with much more capable offshore patrol vessels, such as the Canadian Harry DeWolf class, capable of navigating the waters from the Equator to the Antarctic. They may be less useful outside the South West Pacific, but there is certainly enough maritime patrol, humanitarian and environmental work to keep them busy within the region.
Such a decision has a number of advantages. They are cheaper than frigates. They ensure better patrol capabilities within our region, while being less concerned with matters outside our region. We have other defence assets that would be more useful for coalition tasks, including the new tanker/logistics vessel, the Aotearoa, as well as the new Poseidon aircraft.
Such a choice would clearly show that our principal interests are within the South West Pacific. It would also show that New Zealand has not built a defence force that replicates, on a small scale, the expeditionary capabilities of our larger partners, but neither are we so insular that we have no capabilities that can contribute to wider coalition roles. (Emphasis mine)​

So according to Wayno we just get rid of our frigates whilst we have an adversary moving within the South Pacific that is waging a political war against our closest friend, neighbour, family member, and only ally. Has he forgotten that we have defence and security responsibilities for nations in the South Pacific? It seems that Wayno has entered his dotage or has become a member of the Auckland Peace Action Group. This is certainly not an article written by someone who has the security and defence of NZ's sovereignty at heart. Who's he working for now? Maybe he's a hidden Treasury operative.

Summer 2020/21 - Defsec pp30 - 31.

Not Treasury NG. It is less subtle than that if you take a holistic overview of all he has written on DefSecMedia over the last few years. The world he sees from the the armchair in his North Shore study is very unlike the what real experts in international relations and security see in and around the Indo-Pacific and very different geo-political temperature to the decade ago when he was Defence Minster.

The mere fact that still has not cottoned on to the fact the Cold War 2.0 has been going on for a few years already says to me that what he says has no relevance in a Post 2020 strategic environment. This is the thoughts of a person stuck in 2002 and not 2020!
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
So according to Wayno we just get rid of our frigates whilst we have an adversary moving within the South Pacific that is waging a political war against our closest friend, neighbour, family member, and only ally. Has he forgotten that we have defence and security responsibilities for nations in the South Pacific? It seems that Wayno has entered his dotage or has become a member of the Auckland Peace Action Group. This is certainly not an article written by someone who has the security and defence of NZ's sovereignty at heart. Who's he working for now? Maybe he's a hidden Treasury operative.
He is so far out of touch it is not even funny... He still thinks we are in a benign environment.

And I am not sure replacing the other two OPV's and the SOPV with the Harry DeWolf class is in the budget. (They not that cheap) Adding inflation (around 2% for 2024-25 dollars) it is around $615,000,000 NZD per-vessel. Which is on the upper echelon of the budget for the SPOV $300m-$600m. (of course get it built in South Korea to save a dollar or 2). The OPV replacement is slightly less for both $600m–$1b for both or $300m-$500m each.

As for replacing the Frigates with them ... --- ... --- ... yeah I'm lost for words there... not sure how Harry DeWolf class is more capable than an ANZAC... even a pre-upgraded ANZAC... maybe for going south, sure and ice capable but that is it.

Such a choice would clearly show that our principal interests are within the South West Pacific. It would also show that New Zealand has not built a defence force that replicates, on a small scale, the expeditionary capabilities of our larger partners, but neither are we so insular that we have no capabilities that can contribute to wider coalition roles.
What about our shipping lanes through ... errrm lets say troubled waters ... or truely helping our allies,.... you wanting a coast guard not a sea going navy.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
He is so far out of touch it is not even funny... He still thinks we are in a benign environment.

As for replacing the Frigates with them ... --- ... --- ... yeah I'm lost for words there... not sure how Harry DeWolf class is more capable than an ANZAC... even a pre-upgraded ANZAC... maybe for going south, sure and ice capable but that is it.
Put it this way. There have been around 14 or 15 Defence Ministers since I got the chance to vote in the early 80's. Wayno would be only just above Mark Burton in sheer uselessness.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
What about our shipping lanes through ... errrm lets say troubled waters ... or truely helping our allies,.... you wanting a coast guard not a sea going navy.
Obviously it is also in Waynes World that somehow the Aotearoa and the Canterbury/NUSHIP are going to either sail around under the magic cloak of invisibility or basically rely on the surface combatants of others to protect them in anything above the very low intensity conflict band of any UNSC Chp VII scenario that we may will to be part of. Bet they will be thrilled about that.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Hard to believe anyone would consider a Harry Dewolf AOPS as a suitable replacement for an ANZAC frigate. The single 25 mm gun is sure to frighten off any PLAN vessel...is Wayno related to junior?
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Put it this way. There have been around 14 or 15 Defence Ministers since I got the chance to vote in the early 80's. Wayno would be only just above Mark Burton in sheer uselessness.
Hmmm, many moons ago I got to have a 45 minute 'chat' to him about Defence...it was when he was in opposition & Labour had not long ordered the NH-90 (note: yes this is political but purely provided for context of my view of Mapp)... he really showed fark-all knowledge of Air or Naval operations or equipment. He was more interested in cheap point scoring...I literally quote him verbatim with regard to the NH-90 purchase... 'that was just a Labour party sop to the RNZAF'... he didn't seem to know much about the type & clearly couldn't offer a good argument that they might not be the best choice... I smelt a hint of Army vs RNZAF rivalry as well.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Hmmm, many moons ago I got to have a 45 minute 'chat' to him about Defence...it was when he was in opposition & Labour had not long ordered the NH-90 (note: yes this is political but purely provided for context of my view of Mapp)... he really showed fark-all knowledge of Air or Naval operations or equipment. He was more interested in cheap point scoring...I literally quote him verbatim with regard to the NH-90 purchase... 'that was just a Labour party sop to the RNZAF'... he didn't seem to know much about the type & clearly couldn't offer a good argument that they might not be the best choice... I smelt a hint of Army vs RNZAF rivalry as well.
Taking a different slant on this subject going forward.

Would NZ get better value for money rolling its limited defence resources into combining its OPV / frigate force into a common class of vessel.
Would six corvette / light frigates be a more realistic proposition.
With only two frigates currently, it would be a brave government to send any truly into harms way. Its 50% of your majors.
Even with their upgrades they are not big ships
Not so problematic for Australia with a force of eleven such vessels.
While no one wants attrition, are NZ's talk of future Frigates / Destroyers a bit like Fast Air.
A bridge too far.
Can New Zealand afford to be in the big ship game????
Unless your going to spend the coin and get a Hobart sized vessel with a minimum of four, I don't think your going to to justice to the subject.

A vessel with a helicopter flight deck and hangar ,Sea Ceptor and a 35 / 40 CIWS on the bow, may provide more realistic and balanced options to both NZ and her allies.
Vessel availability, training and maintenance would be stream lined with such efficacy's gained.

Acknowledging you will not take on a major adversary at sea from sea; you will still have a force that can do all the constabulary stuff and contribute to medium levels of contingency's.

Add a couple of P-8's and do justice to another two supply / Amphibious ships and the NZ navy would be well placed going forward.

Otherwise spend the coin to do justice to acquiring destroyers in numbers, without also compromising other important areas of defence.
A doubtful proposition.

I suggest some reluctant future hard decisions to be made!



Regards S
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
Taking a different slant on this subject going forward.

Would NZ get better value for money rolling its limited defence resources into combining its OPV / frigate force into a common class of vessel.
Not unless the OPV role is conducted by a vessel much larger than currently envisaged and acts more as a patrolable MRV utilising deployed minor surface and sub-surface craft including autonomous vehicles.

Would six corvette / light frigates be a more realistic proposition.
No. That idea was rejected 35 years ago when it was proposed pre Anzac and the conditions within our 21st strategic environment going forward make it even less realistic.

While no one wants attrition, are NZ's talk of future Frigates / Destroyers a bit like Fast Air.
A bridge too far.
Can New Zealand afford to be in the big ship game????
Yes it can. Even after the initial hit from Covid the economy is far more resilient than these so called countries that can afford high end military equipment.

Unless your going to spend the coin and get a Hobart sized vessel with a minimum of four, I don't think your going to to justice to the subject.
You can get a Hobart sized vessel with comparable capability for a lots less than the Hobarts cost. New Zealand can afford four Frigates. Always was able to, always will be. Don't confuse choice to do or not to do something something with ability to do something.

A vessel with a helicopter flight deck and hangar ,Sea Ceptor and a 35 / 40 CIWS on the bow, may provide more realistic and balanced options to both NZ and her allies.
Vessel availability, training and maintenance would be stream lined with such efficacy's gained.
How is this so with respect to providing a more "realistic and balanced option to NZ and her allies? Have you any evidence to substantial your claim?

Acknowledging you will not take on a major adversary at sea from sea; you will still have a force that can do all the constabulary stuff and contribute to medium levels of contingency's.
New Zealand and its sea lines of communication which are amongst the longest in the world (and the reason why a fleet of OPV's was laughed off 35 years ago when suggested by well meaning, but ill-informed, amateurs) does not get to choose. New Zealand will not have some kind of miraculous protection from harms ways. Are you somehow related to Wayne Mapp? This is so misguided a comment I am speechless. It makes no recognition of the maritime domain threats that New Zealand faces are exactly the same as any other country within the Indo-Pacific.
[/QUOTE]
 

Nighthawk.NZ

Well-Known Member
I suggest some reluctant future hard decisions to be made!
Here is the thing... New Zealand is not actually broke and can easily afford alot more... but the political will is no longer there... and that is the bit that has to change.

Our politicians have sea blindness... we are an island nation, that relies on sea freight both in and out, we can not expect our allies in to do it all and have to give a decent contribution to any defence effort we can afford 4 frigates (if not more) ... (not necessarily the type 26 but the 31 etc) we can afford a ACF, we can afford MBT's etc but the political will is not there...
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
Here is the thing... New Zealand is not actually broke and can easily afford alot more... but the political will is no longer there... and that is the bit that has to change.

Our politicians have sea blindness... we are an island nation, that relies on sea freight both in and out, we can not expect our allies in to do it all and have to give a decent contribution to any defence effort we can afford 4 frigates (if not more) ... (not necessarily the type 26 but the 31 etc) we can afford a ACF, we can afford MBT's etc but the political will is not there...
And in many ways its a buyers Market.
Put up a RFT for a modern Medium size Frigate that doesn’t have to be built in Country, With say
57-127mm Gun
16-24 VLS with SR-MR SAMs
4-8 SSMs
LWT
CIWS
A decent quality CMS and Sensors
Hangar and Flight Deck for 1 Helicopter
And you will get anything up to 10 decent Tenders for a modern capable Frigate beating a path to your door, designed and either built or under construction in the last 15 years.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
And in many ways its a buyers Market.
Put up a RFT for a modern Medium size Frigate that doesn’t have to be built in Country, With say
57-127mm Gun
16-24 VLS with SR-MR SAMs
4-8 SSMs
LWT
CIWS
A decent quality CMS and Sensors
Hangar and Flight Deck for 1 Helicopter
And you will get anything up to 10 decent Tenders for a modern capable Frigate beating a path to your door, designed and either built or under construction in the last 15 years.
My thoughts on the matter:

In my view the pathway exists from the current Frigate programs underway within the other FVEYS countries. I very much like the USN / DoD approach in which they selected an integrator in LM, then said this is the mandatory baseline equipment fit-out per sensors, ew, decoys, CMS, radars, weapons, propulsion et al and here is out target price, and went out to the shipbuilder marketplace and said out of your current proven frigate design in terms of a baseline hull and machinery offer us a build package for us to consider.

New Zealand should look at the same approach. Secure a coherent suite of MOTS government furnished equipment, secure a lead integration contractor and finally secure a ship construction contractor answerable to the NZ Govt as customer.

Right now there are a number of component product lines for the Type 26 variants, the Type 31 and soon Type 32 as well as the FFG-62 frigate. In my view this is advantageous to the GONZ in that we have MOTS equipment that we can draw on in terms the extra economies of scale that our order can generate within the production block cycle. In other word available Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) from FVEYS frigate suppliers in combat systems. For example if the choice was for LM's CombatSS-21 as the CMS then we would order as a direct commercial OEM sale or FMS depending what was fiscally best that system or indeed the 330CMS from LM Canada per GFE. Again there are some things which are almost generic amongst our partner navies and close Indo-Pacific allies such as Phalanx, Mk41, Mk 54, NSM, etc and again these are fairly straight forward GFE acquisitions. There are also specific equipment items that the NZ Govt may wish to have continuance of, continuity of with respect to Sea Ceptor, soft decoys or indeed the 330CMS as mentioned that we already use and are familiar with in the current Anzac upgrade - again in use with at least one or two of the FVEYS family.

Contractual demarcation is legally straightforward or should be if done in a clear headed matter - each lead contractor party - the builder, suppliers, the integrator, is responsible for what they supply, install, sign off on, in terms of dispute and rectification with the NZ Govt under international arbitration rules. Support and supply contracts operatively would be under the same legal schemata.

I have always though the the bones of the Type 31/32 as a baseline hull and machinery is a good honest surface combatant. I have also considered that a modern level of capability upgrade that takes it beyond the original Iver F370 variant, would provide the RNZN with an excellent and capable GP frigate. If a conceptual merger of the Type 31 hull with the GFE combat systems of the Canadian Type 26 (per 330CMS, AN/SPY-7(V)1, SEA SENTOR S21700, 32-cell Mk 41 VLS, 6 cel ExLS for Sea Ceptor, NSM, S2150 sonar for example) would be a very cost effective surface combatant. In other words a beefed up Type 31/32 - modern take on the F-370. Noting that both LM and Babcocks have a significant footprint within the industrial defence base in New Zealand including a naval drydock and a capable aerospace & marine engineering base, the integration could even be completed within New Zealand. As the upgraded Anzac is to decommission in 2035, according to the latest estimates - one could even call it the "Type 35"!
 

KiwiRob

Well-Known Member
Here is the thing... New Zealand is not actually broke and can easily afford alot more... but the political will is no longer there... and that is the bit that has to change.

Our politicians have sea blindness... we are an island nation, that relies on sea freight both in and out, we can not expect our allies in to do it all and have to give a decent contribution to any defence effort we can afford 4 frigates (if not more) ... (not necessarily the type 26 but the 31 etc) we can afford a ACF, we can afford MBT's etc but the political will is not there...
The political will is no longer there, when has it ever been there?

TBF the ACF is gone and that's that, we don't need MBT's either.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The political will is no longer there, when has it ever been there?

TBF the ACF is gone and that's that, we don't need MBT's either.
The political will may change when the pollies get an enormous fright and crap their underwear. The ACF has a chance of coming back, but not necessarily in the numbers it once was.

Agree about the MBTs because they don't fit into our CONOPS and haven't done for decades. What we do need is something better than the NZLAV and I believe that we should go with the Aussie CRV as the NZLAV replacement. I would also include the Spike LR missiles because the Aussies are integrating them onto the vehicle and licence building them in Australia along with the 30 mm ammo.

It's also interesting that Rheinmettall are reported to be bringing out an Air Defence turret which has the 30 mm variant of their Millennium gun, AESA radar, Stinger missiles, E/O sights etc., fires AHEAD ammo, and will fit on most 8 x 8 armoured vehicles. They cost €5 - 7 million each, but are something worth considering, especially as our Army has no air defences, apart from M2 50 cal HB HMG.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
The political will is no longer there, when has it ever been there?

TBF the ACF is gone and that's that, we don't need MBT's either.
When electronic interference / warfare and reconnaissance HALE's such as the BZK-005’s, EA-03/WZ-9's Soar Dragons, ultra long range Devine Eagles and carrier borne Sharp Swords eventually start operating in the South Western Pacific, and that is in no way a remote possibility, but an ever unfolding likelihood in the years to come, as BZK-005’s and EA-03/WZ-9's are already entering Japanese and South Korea airspace as well as shadowing USN and JMSDF surface fleet assets in the SCS and SoJ, the sphincter inducing panic in both the NZ public and politicians will be something to behold. Political will is a fair weather friend and will bend in the breeze in a cooling wind.
 

MrConservative

Super Moderator
Staff member
During the past year Cabinet evaluated 4 future funding options from Treasury, which they will lock in for the next four years.

They were as follows:

Option A – Comprehensive Package: This package would allow NZDF to
implement the policy settings articulated in the DCP 2019 with minor risk to
output delivery, as well as increase use of current capabilities, prepare for the
introduction of new capabilities, and meet compliance and transformation
requirements with a minor level of risk. Significant efficiencies would need to be
achieved in personnel structure and the use of contractors.

Option B – Increasing Activity and Capability: This package would focus on
increasing NZDF’s activity levels and preparing for the introduction of new
capabilities. New and returning capabilities should be able to be utilised as
planned.

Option C – Sustaining Capabilities and Infrastructure: This package focuses
on maintaining current capability and introducing new capabilities in the medium term.

Option D – Base Funding: This funding scenario provides limited funding for
new FTE growth, scaled funding for MRO, operating capabilities, remuneration
increases for one year.

More detail on these options were addressed in Appendix A of the Report - however, the whole of Appendix A is redacted, which suggests that controversial and sensitive options are on the table and will require some finessing of the received public wisdom.

Going through them:

Option C: Is the status quo in delivering the DWP16/DCP19 but at a slower slower rate through the medium term.

Option D: Is basically slowing it down to a crawl with annual budget gateways, which even Treasury realises will have defence policy fall off a cliff.

Option A: Is essentially continue the current capability pathway, but look at ways of being more efficient in getting there.

Option B: Is ramping things up.

All this Treasury work was undertaken last year and presented to Cabinet at the beginning of this year. However, two things have happened. Covid and the ramping up by a few notches the strategic aggression of the PRC. This has not gone unnoticed and in recent weeks my belief that middle of the road Kiwi’s, who normally have neutral views or even previously mildly peacenik views are starting to realise their own and the nation states vulnerability in terms of wider national security.

Option B is what a number of us on DT have been calling for years.

Increasing Activity and Capability: This package would focus on
increasing NZDF’s activity levels and preparing for the introduction of new
capabilities. New and returning capabilities should be able to be utilised as
planned.

Returning capabilities? Do they mean an Air Combat Capability because it is the only capability set fully expunged?

In the medium to long term if the deterioration of geo-strategic stability continues to unravel, and sadly I suspect it will as Cold War 2.0 begins to dip further in temperature, it will confirm my considerable reservations about the inability for the NZDF in the future and its unbalanced force structure being able to secure the sovereign integrity of its airspace and its Air and Electronic Line of Communications, that it has not had to be concerned about in our former benign strategic environment.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
When electronic interference / warfare and reconnaissance HALE's such as the BZK-005’s, EA-03/WZ-9's Soar Dragons, ultra long range Devine Eagles and carrier borne Sharp Swords eventually start operating in the South Western Pacific, and that is in no way a remote possibility, but an ever unfolding likelihood in the years to come, as BZK-005’s and EA-03/WZ-9's are already entering Japanese and South Korea airspace as well as shadowing USN and JMSDF surface fleet assets in the SCS and SoJ, the sphincter inducing panic in both the NZ public and politicians will be something to behold. Political will is a fair weather friend and will bend in the breeze in a cooling wind.
It's not just those but the PRC fishing fleet as well. The PRC already have negotiated with the PNG a fish canning factory at Dura in PNG. This factory is supposed to be able to process the catch of 500 boats. PRC fishing fleets sweep the seas clean right through the water column from the bottom two the surface. They also make a habit of helping themselves to others EEZ even though they aren't allowed to. This has happened not only in the SCS, but in the North Korean EEZ, despite UN sanctions, off Africa, off South America, they were caught fishing in the Galapagos Islands marine sanctuary and EEZ.

So they will do the same in the top end of Australia and around through the South West Pacific, including our Realm's EEZ. Not all of the boats in the fleet are genuine fishing boats but belong to the Peoples Maritime Militia and are used to ram foreign EEZ resource protection vessels, Coastguard vessels etc., and generally run interference attempting to prevent the boarding and arrest of PRC fishing boats illegally fishing. This is SOP for them especially against weaker nations.

Once we start putting our foot down, they will react in the same way that they have against Australia. It's not a trade war against Australia, but a political war because its about sovereignty, and for all intents and purposes, it might as well be an open declaration of war because the PRC are trying to force Australia to surrender their sovereignty submit to them. That's what we are facing and what Cold War 2.0 is all about. It is far more dangerous than Cold War 1.0 was because the PRC is far more organised, richer, technically proficient, technology advanced, ruthless, single minded, authoritarian, militarily advanced, and ambitious than the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact was. The world is also far different than what it was during Cold War 1.0 and far more integrated which has made it more vulnerable to PRC mischief.
 
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