Also the coming election is not a a foregone conclusion and sorry to rain on your parade Mr C, but if Labour do win the Treasury Benches then we'll see another lurch in defence policy and decline in defence capability. They will attempt to get rid of the frigates. They will can the ASW upgrades for the P3K2. That's their basic policy & nothings changed in their defence outlook since they were last in government. If the Greens retain or increase on their current number of MPs then they will have a major say in any coalition arrangement. The Kiwi Greens do not like defence. Sometimes I feel they like oil companies more.
Labour are only taking votes off the Greens and as a voting block not making traction. The Greens are trending down to 8% and Labour will not crack 35% on a good day. Winston does not get the 5% threshold this time and their is a chance that Labour winning back the North from Bill Hatfield his Mana Party is goneburgers. Colin Craigs Conservatives will win East Coast Bays if McCully gets shown the door or goes onto the list. With his 4% of the vote - made up of the Christians and the Muldoonists tired of a failing Winston. Act will win Espom again with the new candidate. Dunne to scrap home in Ohariu by 1000 votes, Maori Party to stay with the Nats and bring 3 seats in play and the "its the economy stupid" and "Vote Labour and get the Greens" mantra from the 9th floor will mean that Key will still gain more votes than Labour - Greens combined upwards of 45% and possibly 48% if they have a strong campaign soaking up soft centrist votes scared of the Greens. Key needs a 47.5% block to win and will romp home.