As we are in a Canadian Navy thread I will keep my comments relevant to that, as I was basing my comments around this topic and should be viewed strictly as such.That statement is factually incorrect. See here for an overview of the Canadian nuclear industry: Canada 2019
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Nuclear energy in Canada is undergoing a renaissance, and is quite healthy. In no way is it weaker than it was a decade ago. In fact, I would argue the exact opposite is the case.
- Canada has no enrichment facilities, enrichment industry or enrichment experience or development this is a notable aspect of the CANDU design and a strong point in its limitation in terms of proliferation compared to many other technologies.
- Canada has no experience with reactors based off enriched nuclear fuel
- Every nuclear submarine operates on enriched nuclear fuel, with 99.9% of them operating on highly enriched fuel.
In addition to the IEAA link you provided, the world nuclear association has a broad summary on Canada and its nuclear industry which others can read and make their minds up. I don't find either particularly encouraging regarding the future of the Canadian nuclear industry and its relevance to submarines. I do not make this opinion based on just these two sources and encourage those to discuss more widely. While there are some positive future looking statements, I find tangible firm commitments hard to see, in the naval context.
Shrinking nuclear expertise and technology into submarines is a huge challenge. Adapting technology CANDU to this challenge is not possible. Nuclear subs and nuclear weapons have historically been intertwined, so choices made regarding CANDU as safe-ish non-proliferation source, is not appropriate to subs due to laws of physics.
While France might be willing to sell the basic design for the SSN, there is no historical precedent that they would sell the reactor technologies today. Australia's submarine program is a conventional interpretation (essentially a new sub base-lining the SSN) and Brazils design will use an indigenous reactor. If Brazil ever commissions its SSN, it will be the first non-nuclear weapon state to do so, also notes FAS understanding of French concerns regarding transferring nuclear technology to customer nations. All three programs are quite big, expensive, have significant risk, and are complex, I would struggle to see Canadians getting continued bi-partisan support over decades for such a project. Certainly the Canada class acquisition suggests it is impossible (SSN) and the Victoria class acquisition that even a conventional capability would seem to be a project of great difficulty in terms of commitment.
On Submarines and the Canadian ship building strategy, The Canadian Global Affairs Institute has a piece that covers some of this and quotes the Canadian Naval Review, who you think would be the most upbeat about the possibility.
It would seem that a conventional overseas build is the only realistic (or perhaps optimistic) option for Canada at this stage.The simple reason that submarines are not included in the shipbuilding strategy is that a small fleet of approximately four or even as many as eight submarines would detract from the goal of the strategy. There is no synergy gained by adding submarines to a coordinated approach for surface ship construction. Submarines are not included in the NSPS because it makes no military, economic or industrial sense to do so. The number of submarines cannot reasonably support continuous work, so adding them to the NSPS would promote the very “boom and bust” cycle that the strategy was intended to solve.44
Politely putting on my moderator hat - conventional sub discussion is fine in context of the RCN. I request we put aside any Canadian SSN (and doubly Australian SSN) talk as it tends to quickly cause issues. If you wish to discuss real SSN's of specific navies that should occur in the relevant threads of those navies. If you wish you discuss nuclear technologies in general, there are more relevant/appropriate places to discuss that.
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