Middle East Defence & Security

[crest]

Well it would be the most logical course. If they can't, or think they can't (and therefore don't try) to disrupt the strike campaign against them, then their strategy would have to be to do as much damage to the economy and infrastructure of the region as well as continue to hit military targets where opportunity presents itself. Most of the Middle Eastern states around that area have ties to the US, and are arguably American allies. So in the long run, showing them that following the US into a war like this could cost them dearly might move the needle at least somewhat. And the mounting costs both domestically and internationally would put pressure on the US.

That's my read on it aswell, I would add that they may (imop rightly) also believe that oil flow trumps whatever benefits they believe hosting u.s military forces grants. So the closure of the strait and withheld ability to also strike refineries are just as important to moving that needle. The fact those options also take time and would require a pre planed strategy of husbanding resources for a prolonged conflict reinforce the idea that it may Infact be a intentional drop in rate of fire. Or at least partially intentional as attrition no doubt is indeed happening but the degree is imop unknown. Tho from what I have seen Iran has put extensive time and efforts to make that difficult Infact it seems that they expected to be unable to realistically protect there own airspace and planed accordingly.

Now how effective those efforts are is the question at least in my opinion. U.s capabilities are afterall extraordinary. Tho in this conflict I do question there sequenceing if not there pre operation expectations. After all I think the protests initial decapitation strikes and potential Kurdish involvement would have been more effective if done in conjunction with these airstrikes not piecemeal efforts.

 

[Feanor]

That's my read on it aswell, I would add that they may (imop rightly) also believe that oil flow trumps whatever benefits they believe hosting u.s military forces grants. So the closure of the strait and withheld ability to also strike refineries are just as important to moving that needle. The fact those options also take time and would require a pre planed strategy of husbanding resources for a prolonged conflict reinforce the idea that it may Infact be a intentional drop in rate of fire. Or at least partially intentional as attrition no doubt is indeed happening but the degree is imop unknown. Tho from what I have seen Iran has put extensive time and efforts to make that difficult Infact it seems that they expected to be unable to realistically protect there own airspace and planed accordingly.

Now how effective those efforts are is the question at least in my opinion. U.s capabilities are afterall extraordinary. Tho in this conflict I do question there sequenceing if not there pre operation expectations. After all I think the protests initial decapitation strikes and potential Kurdish involvement would have been more effective if done in conjunction with these airstrikes not piecemeal efforts.

That would have require US decision-makers to plan it all out. Instead it seems they thought they could topple the regime with a few decapitation strikes and are now in an asymmetric rock throwing contest with regional and even global implications.

 

[John Fedup]

This was not a well planned operation if regime change was the goal (IMHO it should be). If it was, boots on the ground along with willing allied boots should have been in place along with support from disenchanted Iranians albeit a difficult package to organize. Also essential was an assessment of the Iranian military support against the IRGC units. If the goal was only a degrading of Iran's military and IRGC without regime change then this "stuff" is a waste of resources and an economic drain that pi$$es off many allies. The word "plan" along with Trump and his bourbon fool at DoW shouldn't be in the same sentence....just my two cents.

 

[crest]

That would have require US decision-makers to plan it all out. Instead it seems they thought they could topple the regime with a few decapitation strikes and are now in an asymmetric rock throwing contest with regional and even global implications.

Yeah I'm of the belief that they keep trying to do it on the cheep. And may now be in a bit of a jam. Infact I think they are now rolling the dice on the u.s presence in the region at large if this doesn't end well

 

[crest]

This was not a well planned operation if regime change was the goal (IMHO it should be). If it was, boots on the ground along with willing allied boots should have been in place along with support from disenchanted Iranians albeit a difficult package to organize. Also essential was an assessment of the Iranian military support against the IRGC units. If the goal was only a degrading of Iran's military and IRGC without regime change then this "stuff" is a waste of resources and an economic drain that pi$$es off many allies. The word "plan" along with Trump and his bourbon fool at DoW shouldn't be in the same sentence....just my two cents.

Lol yeah pet hegseth what's that quote about him "he's the kinda guy who watched team America and found it inspirational". At least McNamara was just wrong not stupid

 

[uguduwa]

To be fair I am not even sure about regime change if the people want the monarchy back which means that things would come to where they are eventually..

 

[koxinga]

Mojtaba Khamenei was elected the Supreme Leader, succeeding his father.

Don't think that's part of the regime change plan and it is Iran signalling to the US they are not giving up how they want to do things.

 

[KipPotapych]

In the meantime,




Edit: and oil is only part of the picture that not many look behind (to note the move indicated above ^ is happening now - WTI closed at $91 or some such on Friday - while below is from the beginning of the war, so a nine-day move):

 

[crest]

In the meantime,

View attachment 54435


Edit: and oil is only part of the picture that not many look behind (to note the move indicated above ^ is happening now - WTI closed at $91 or some such on Friday - while below is from the beginning of the war, so a nine-day move):

View attachment 54436

Also worth noting is the rare earth stocks I don't have all the individual numbers for a link but here is a article with many of them. Obviously the longer this goes on the more they will mater as there critical for the defence industry notably in radars and missle systems

Rare Earth Stocks: REalloys Lights Up As Iran War Stokes Demand

Rare earth stocks REalloys, MP Materials and USA Rare Earth are in focus as the Iran war highlights their key role in missile systems.

www.investors.com

 

[rsemmes]

Is the US as incompetent with this SCO as Russia with its SMO or even more, because it is far more "technology advanced"?

 

[hauritz]

In the meantime,

View attachment 54435


Edit: and oil is only part of the picture that not many look behind (to note the move indicated above ^ is happening now - WTI closed at $91 or some such on Friday - while below is from the beginning of the war, so a nine-day move):

View attachment 54436

Australian Goverment says to stay calm. No need for panic buying. Which is code for you need to absolutely panic. Turns out we have around 40 days fuel reserve and they are already pretty much rationing diesel.

Would not surprise me to see the navy going into harms way as we try to get oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz again.

 

[Feanor]

Europe to Asia air traffic is currently forced into a small corridor between Armenia and Azerbaijan, since Iran is at war, and Russian airspace is closed. If Azerbaijan enters the war, that window will close. The impacts of this conflict will apparently continue to pile up.

Colonelcassad

Если Азербайджан втянется в войну, то Евразию может ждать крупнейший логистический кризис с точки зрения авиаперевозок.

t.me

 

[John Fedup]

Australian Goverment says to stay calm. No need for panic buying. Which is code for you need to absolutely panic. Turns out we have around 40 days fuel reserve and they are already pretty much rationing diesel.

Would not surprise me to see the navy going into harms way as we try to get oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz again.

Does AUKUS entitle Australia to America’s new oil reserve (formerly Venezuela )?

 

[SinisterMinister]

Anyway, there is no winning for Iran here, regardless of the definition of victory, but if the country can absorb the bombardment and the regime can handle the internal affairs, the regime is guaranteed to survive this round in the short to medium term, in my opinion. This is especially true if the US-Israel campaign will continue to include the destruction of critical infrastructure and real functionality of the country/society. These are counterproductive in regard to the regime change. Consequences can also be dire for the region, as well as the entire world, but this will be complained about and dealt with “the day after”, of course.


What I think is more probable in this scenario is that the “regime change” will basically come with the disintegration of the state, which is the worst case scenario, in my opinion.

I think this is a misread of the strategic situation. This war is the culmination of 20 years of build up in American FP circles. This is THE attempt to take down the Iranians once and for all. Failure to do so in itself constitutes a significant Iranian victory because a) it will require a reset in US policy and b) it grants the regime massive legitimacy. Being able to inflict this much economic pain, this quickly, invalidates future military action as a possibility whenever a deal is reached. And it also forces the Americans to put the brakes on any Israeli attempts to do the same.

It's getting very hard to see a scenario where this doesn't end with, at the very least, sanctions relief for Iran and potential reparations. Whether that is from the Trump administration or Trump's replacement in an impeachment scenario. Americans WILL NOT tolerate significant economic pain for this war, especially if it comes with a market unwind + pullback of Gulf investments. I see a resetting of the table as a level of Iranian victory that was probably previously unthinkable.

 

[John Fedup]

I think this is a misread of the strategic situation. This war is the culmination of 20 years of build up in American FP circles. This is THE attempt to take down the Iranians once and for all. Failure to do so in itself constitutes a significant Iranian victory because a) it will require a reset in US policy and b) it grants the regime massive legitimacy. Being able to inflict this much economic pain, this quickly, invalidates future military action as a possibility whenever a deal is reached. And it also forces the Americans to put the brakes on any Israeli attempts to do the same.

It's getting very hard to see a scenario where this doesn't end with, at the very least, sanctions relief for Iran and potential reparations. Whether that is from the Trump administration or Trump's replacement in an impeachment scenario. Americans WILL NOT tolerate significant economic pain for this war, especially if it comes with a market unwind + pullback of Gulf investments. I see a resetting of the table as a level of Iranian victory that was probably previously unthinkable.

Agree, if this situation continues continues or ends up with the current regime still functioning, it will be a political disaster for Trump. Massive expense and economic pain are indeed not a good-look for Nov elections. Worse, the survival of the current Iranian regime will likely see China increase its support for Iran with more than just words of support. The attacks on expensive and hard to replace radar warning sites in the Gulf and Jordan will be a wake up call for sure.