Middle East Defence & Security

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Some more BDA footage from Iranian strikes on US facilities. Note while the damage looks extensive, it's not clear that the facilities hit were particularly significant (or insignificant for that matter). Some of the strikes do look very deliberate, hitting what appear to be fairly specific targets, others less so. I suspect it will be some time before we get a good idea of the true damage inflicted on either side.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Qatar has reportedly shut down gas liquefaction and it ain’t coming back for at least a month (two weeks to restart and two weeks to return to the normal production levels).


While I had great doubts about the school bombing reported on day one, the event is apparently real:


Various outlets reported the Iraqi Kurds crossing the border with Iran, indicating the start of the widely advertised operation. I am sure the source for the news was one and the same, but the “climax” came after the Fox confirmed the rumours.



I do not know whether this is true or not, but there certainly were a great number of individuals denying this is happening. A couple of exmaples:





The following article from the JPost list a few other parties that deny the reports (including the first tweet I cited above):


I tend to think that this is false - there would be more reports (rather sources) and footage if this was true. Probably just a media campaign for now. Overall, a lot of people appear to be willing to talk about the plan too, beginning yesterday.





The whole talk of some buffer zone for Israel, what hell does that even mean?

Reports indicate that some commanding officers in the US ranks believe (or at least say they do) that this is all God’s plan:


Remember Bush Jr talking about end of times prophecies and other nonsense in regard to Iraq? The lunatics here have been talking about this exact same garbage for the past couple of years. Imagine the world full of rational people and no wackos. At least on our side of things. I would bet five bucks this guy is part of the wacko community:


How this is even real life, I don’t know. In the meantime, another indication that the White House account is probably run by teenagers:


Another “community” representative:


Who the hell is the target audience for this garbage? The “community”, I guess.

Ran into a few memes the Russian Twitter coming up with on the subject. This one is pretty solid, even given translation shortcomings (translated by Grok from Russian):



Not Russian and not on the subject, but also decent:



Also good:



Overall, the greatest achievement of this administration so far is the memes. No one had ever come close, I don’t think.

Basically a meme:



So is this:



Brits trying to catch up:




China is undoubtedly enjoying the US depleting its missile inventory. If this continues for another month or two at the present rate then China may reevaluate the timetable for action against Taiwan.
A good, in my opinion, assessment on the subject:


 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
A good, in my opinion, assessment on the subject:


The above only matters when you have a Congress capable and willing to carry out their responsibilities which Trump has managed to end. Indeed China's industrial capacity now greatly exceeds the US (all due to Western corporate greed by agreeing to new manufacturing sites in China where China controls these sites and providing IP along with Western universities educating thousands of Chinese engineers and scientists because they could get larger tuition fees). Nuclear deterrence is now the option.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Sinking ships won't win this war. You can sink Iran's entire navy, shoot down its entire airforce and you still won't win. Really Trump and Netanyahu are gambling on regime change. Eventually America will run out of missiles and then what? I am not seeing any exit strategy here.

If there isn't regime change America will eventually be forced to withdraw. Iran will go back to trying to build nukes and sponsoring international terrorism. I doubt the US could stomach another Middle East land war.

What we might be seeing are the death throes of a fading superpower. America is gambling that it will score a quick win through airpower alone. I am not seeing a Plan B.
I wonder if the IRIS Dena was given any opportunity to surrender.
It’s a relatively small ship a long way from home without any surface or air protection.
Realistically, not a threat to the USN.
A captured ship and spared crew would of done much more for the US mission than sinking it with such loss of life.

It’s not about being soft but being smart.

Media and visual age and all.

Cheers S
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There's more and more footage coming out of strikes against Iran. Even though a few are clearly decoys, most of it seems to be against real targets and the damage is rapidly piling up. It does appear that Iran's air defenses are disorganized and are in bad shape. They even shot down an Iranian Yak-130, not sure what it was even doing in the sky. Iran's strike capability still exists but overall they're not doing well.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
I wonder if the IRIS Dena was given any opportunity to surrender.
It’s a relatively small ship a long way from home without any surface or air protection.
Realistically, not a threat to the USN.
A captured ship and spared crew would of done much more for the US mission than sinking it with such loss of life.

It’s not about being soft but being smart.

Media and visual age and all.

Cheers S
Unlikely that a sub would or could offer a chance to surrender.

Given the location, reporting it so surface ships could intercept it & perhaps capture it could have been feasible. It seems unlikely that it could have got home, past the USN.
 

personaldesas

Active Member
Screenshot 2026-03-05 at 22.49.54.png
Summary

• The U.S. and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in “Operation Epic Fury”. Militarily the campaign has been highly successful: Iran’s navy largely destroyed, air force grounded, missile and arms industry heavily degraded, and U.S./Israeli forces control the airspace.

• The main strategic issue is the lack of clear war aims. The Trump administration has given shifting justifications (missiles, nuclear program, regime change, retaliation), which weakens the overall strategy.

• Iran’s strategy is survival and escalation. The regime remains intact and is expanding the conflict regionally, including attacks on Gulf states and intensified fighting through proxies like Hezbollah.

• The conflict is beginning to draw in additional actors. Gulf states are under attack, France and Britain are defending bases, and NATO air defenses have already intercepted an Iranian missile headed toward Turkey.

• Economic escalation is significant. Iran has attempted to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and targeted energy infrastructure. Oil and gas prices have already surged, creating potential global economic effects.

• Internal instability is a risk. Iran’s large ethnic minorities could create conditions for civil war or fragmentation, particularly if insurgencies receive outside support.

• The article argues the U.S. should stop once Iran’s military capabilities are sufficiently degraded rather than pursue regime change, which could trigger wider regional chaos and a prolonged war.

Overall assessment:
Operationally successful campaign, but weak strategic clarity increases the risk of escalation and long-term instability.
 

Stampede

Well-Known Member
Unlikely that a sub would or could offer a chance to surrender.

Given the location, reporting it so surface ships could intercept it & perhaps capture it could have been feasible. It seems unlikely that it could have got home, past the USN.
I think there were many options.
Sinking was just one

I sure there must of been a way to communicate to the ship’s captain and I’m sure he had an idea as to his capability compared to that of the US armed forces.

Cheers S
 

koxinga

Well-Known Member
I think there were many options.
Sinking was just one

I sure there must of been a way to communicate to the ship’s captain and I’m sure he had an idea as to his capability compared to that of the US armed forces.

Cheers S
This line of thinking makes it seems as if the USN captain was fully in charge of the situation and the IRIN captain has no agency, which is false.

He knows his country was at war and his ship would be a target. He was at a foreign port. He could have sought for asylum, or made up a reason like engine trouble and sit out the war and probably no one would have fault him for it (one little corvette will do jack shit in this).

Likewise, the US captain had his orders and he did his duty and he was not required to offer surrender to his enemy (and exposing his own crew to a possible ASW attack from the Iranian corvette).

Both of them followed thru on their professional commitments and their flags. I think we should respect that and leave it.
 
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Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
This line of thinking makes it seems as if the USN captain was fully in charge of the situation and the IRIN captain has no agency, which is false.

He knows his country was at war and his ship would be a target. He was at a foreign port. He could have sought for asylum, or made up a reason like engine trouble and sit out the war and probably no one would have fault him for it (one little corvette will do jack shit in this).

Likewise, the US captain had his orders and he did his duty and he was not required to offer surrender to his enemy (and exposing his own crew to a possible ASW attack from the Iranian corvette).

Both of them followed thru on their professional commitments and their flags. I think we should respect that and leave it.
It took part in the International Fleet Review 2026 naval exercise hosted by India, because of this it is highly likely that the frigate was only armed with ammunition for self defence with its guns, specially if you keep in mind that Iran's navy is not in the best condition because of the economic situation at home.

I understand that a submarine doesn't have the space for a 100+ crew, and that foreigners aren't allowed to be on board, but USN surface vessels of the 5th Fleet could easily welcome the arriving frigate near Oman.

During the press conference Pete Hegseth claims it was a "quiet death", great marketing, but a 533 mm torpedo against your ship isn't a quiet and peacefull death at all. And the survivors only survived because they were rescued by Sri Lanka navy vessels, there are no reports that there was a rescue attempt by the US submarine. If another country performs such act, it will be undoubtedly regarded as a warcrime.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Nuclear deterrence is now the option.
Don’t believe that is relevant as far as Taiwan is concerned.

I think there were many options.
Sinking was just one

I sure there must of been a way to communicate to the ship’s captain and I’m sure he had an idea as to his capability compared to that of the US armed forces.

Cheers S
Agreed. But then you wouldn’t be able to post an “epic” video and brag about it. It’s weird that they do not understand that they are embarrassing themselves over and over again, as opposed to whatever they think they are doing. Like I said, it is like little kids (likely with some mental disorder). The whole world is watching.

At least the memes are good.


There's more and more footage coming out of strikes against Iran. Even though a few are clearly decoys, most of it seems to be against real targets and the damage is rapidly piling up. It does appear that Iran's air defenses are disorganized and are in bad shape. They even shot down an Iranian Yak-130, not sure what it was even doing in the sky. Iran's strike capability still exists but overall they're not doing well.
Some of the IL official numbers:

IMG_4230.jpeg


NoT AbOut ReGiMe cHangE tHoUgh!

IMG_4231.jpeg

The guy “predicts” regime change in Cuba as well:



This line of thinking makes it seems as if the USN captain was fully in charge of the situation and the IRIN captain has no agency, which is false.

He knows his country was at war and his ship would be a target. He was at a foreign port. He could have sought for asylum, or made up a reason like engine trouble and sit out the war and probably no one would have fault him for it (one little corvette will do jack shit in this).

Likewise, the US captain had his orders and he did his duty and he was not required to offer surrender to his enemy (and exposing his own crew to a possible ASW attack from the Iranian corvette).

Both of them followed thru on their professional commitments and their flags. I think we should respect that and leave it.
Exercises ended on Feb 25. Sri Lanka rescued 32 and recovered bodies of 84-87 sailors (they believe 180 were on board). Another Iranian ship looking to dock at Sri Lanka:


India said they will not be dragged into war, so the ship would probably be on its way regardless.


Part of the problem that I mentioned yesterday:



As expected, Russian oil is back in business. Reportedly, India is buying it at $4-5 premium per barrel (to Brent):


US also allowed India to buy RU oil already at sea until April 4. The article above talks about it, but here is the official documentation:


Russia has about 20 days worth of India’s daily consumption currently at sea (edit: that’s about $9.6B at today’s prices before the premium).

China temporary bans exports of diesel and gasoline:

IMG_4233.jpeg


Humour:

IMG_4229.jpeg
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Bessent on the suspension of “sanctions”:

IMG_4244.jpeg

I guess, it should be noted that the whole idea of the exiting secondary sanctions on India is rather questionable, imposed tariffs being found illegal by the SC of the US.

Edit: Recommended listen from the mark (about 38:30) for about 13 minutes on:

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
All these reports of Kurds entering the war against Iran. He stabbed them in the back in Turkey and Syria. Surely the Kurds wouldn't trust Trump again.
I don’t think there was any credible evidence of this happening yet and more sources have denied it than confirmed (only one that everyone keeps citing, I think, vs probably a dozen denials now - some posted yesterday).

But yes, I called it fell for It again award yesterday (and it is not the first one). From the CNN article I cited yesterday:

Any attempt to arm Iranian Kurdish groups would need support from the Iraqi Kurds to let the weapons transit and use Iraqi Kurdistan as launching ground.

“[It’s] very dangerous, but what can we do? We cannot stand against America,” said the senior Kurdistan Regional Government official. “We are very frightened.”


Saw a video of equipment moving allegedly to the Iranian border - like 3 or 4 trucks with two humvees each, if I recall correctly.
 

Interesting article claiming that the Russians are providing ISR to Iran. I wonder, why would they claim Russia is providing the location of warships if no warships have been targeted, as they also claim?

Fog of war is going to be very thick here I think. Israel and the Gulf states are censoring as much as they can, and all we will really see from Iran is basically propaganda footage. Proper BDA is going to get more and more difficult for the public sector.

But I don't agree with the assessment that Iran is doing poorly at all. Obviously they are going to sustain a huge amount of punishment; this is a war of asymmetric capabilities. But they are also going to inflict huge pain on the global economy, particularly agriculture and energy.



The effects of that campaign will really begin to tell in the next couple of weeks. It also seems clear that they can more or less hit what they target (bases, radars, ships, etc) with few exceptions and don't require huge waves of strikes to do so.

The war is unpopular in the US and will only become worse as economic effects tell. Trump will be under increasing pressure to find an off-ramp, which may not really exist.

Iran on the other hand will more than likely be able to endure the pounding. Unless you choose to believe IDF/CENTCOM propaganda, there really is no way to know how degraded missile launch capability is; based on visual evidence/air siren alerts, it seems missile launches have been pretty steady over the last few days, with consistent impacts. Iran knows the only path to a favorable outcome is to hunker down and eat bombs while maintaining an attrition strategy against the Gulf economy.

Will be curious how things evolve as interceptor stocks dwindle.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Unless a general internal revolution with Iranian military support to exterminate the clergy and their guard force happens boots on the ground will be needed. The former seems unlikely at this point and the latter is not an option hence no regime change which means failure.
 
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