So Trump is again doing his ping pong rhetoric, but the common theme in every message is "the war must end soon".
I think we're all in agreement, on all sides, that wars should ideally be quick and if it could end then it'd be good.
But the way things are headed, I think the final outcome may be bad for all sides.
IDF is moving to implement early stages of the Gaza City campaign. It could choose to stop at the outskirts, or go for the whole city and flatten it.
Regardless, it's shaping up to a situation where the IDF permanently holds a significant, deep perimeter around Gaza, and corridors dissecting it.
Why is it bad for Israel? Because that forgoes several critical war objectives, particularly those referring to a day after.
Why is it bad for Hamas? Because they're exhausted and their potential for reconstitution is just a fraction of its pre war condition. No construction materials and machinery are coming in, hence no terrain modification.
And there's the wildcard that is the hostages. Most of the remaining ones are dead, so less valuable no matter how cruel that sounds.
We don't know what Hamas is asking for them. But it can only be bad for Israel.
The universal truth is that the fewer remain, the more difficult they are to get out. It is possible the last hostage deal has shut that door in our faces. And so it is realistic that Israel will for the first time say "No, there's a price too high."
In the situation described, does the war really end?
I think it'll be more of a media perception thing.
The next stage may initiate. Not one between Israel and Hamas, but a Gazan civil war between Hamas and other factions. Factions that need time and resources to recruit, train, and take action, yet need to be on a leash to not turn into another Hamas.
Even if they win, it won't result in a demilitarized Gaza. It will just be differently militarized. Going forward from there will be a difficult challenge that will require a lot of hands on approach from Israel and the US (if the latter wants to shape things).
Important visual context to this post:
I also recommend following him:
