Maybe we should first settle on exactly what kind of war we are talking about. War between equal opponents, or modern army vs. obsolete third-world military?
I’m talking about real war and the only kind we will face for the next 50 years (at least) in any realistic assessment of the future. To get a good frame of reference for what we will face in the future can I suggest people read (its not long, just a few pages) or at least have a look at:
Square Pegs for Round Holes? Current Approaches to Future Warfare and the Need to Adapt by Brig. Michael Krause, Australian Army
http://www.defence.gov.au/Army/lwsc/Publications/WP/WP_132.pdf
It details quite clearly the western (US lead) defence capability overmatch and how no one can really challenge it in the foreseeable future. And by this I very much mean China, Russia or anyone else with pretensions of fielding a modern army. Quite simply they can’t spend anywhere near close to the west and the west is exponentially fielding new technologies and capabilities that they won’t come to match.
Just staying within the top 12 defence spenders (Australia is 12th) the US and those countries with mutual defence alliances with the US are spending 66% of the world’s defence expenditure compared to China and Russia each on 6%. US defence spending is growing and US wealth, population, access to natural resources, etc are all growing.
As Krause says “The United States is showing no signs of flagging in its hegemonic pre-eminence, and while the growth of so-called challengers such as China and India is extraordinary, both countries are still so far behind that they would have to eclipse all historical trends to catch the United States.”
Planning to fight a non-existent enemy of equal military capability is a sure fire path to making sure we don’t have the right force structure to win. Because no such threat is there and just because we don’t have an enemy peer army doesn’t mean enemies won’t find ways to fight us – this is what we need to be able to defeat.
And next to this, outmanouevering is not THAT easy. As I said, MBT's aren't slow, immobile steel beasts anymore. They can change their position and direction as fast as any light vehicle, in rough terrain even faster.
Sure but again they will be outnumbered and outflanked because of the much faster high-level tactical mobility of the lightweight mechanised force.
Part of the problem of peacetime individual and collective training is it focuses on the particular task of the unit in hand. In battle all elements of the combat force are applied. While a lightweight force may not have the armour to get into a close range slugging fight with MBTs it doesn’t have to. If any enemy digs itself in then it loses manoeuvrability and will simply be bypassed or destroyed by artillery or air delivered precision weapons.
Armour has its role but increasingly it’s not out in comparatively open terrain (rural) where highly informed, high speed, ultra-high lethality weapons systems will see, concentrate and destroy them. The role of armour is to provide the protection to engage in close combat in restricted terrain. This is the objective of what I’m trying to communicate – we have to start refocusing tank design away from being an anti-tank system to being a close support system.