KAI KF-21

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The consequence from the reduction of 20% to 7,5%, is that Indonesia will not receive a prototype.
The matter of KF-21 negotiation is fluid. So anything can change including that Prototype matter ;). KF-21 deal with Indonesia now move to Blk 2, a version that not exist yet. Could this mean it's time for F-16 replacement? How about J-10CE come out as alternative replacement?

See, everything still fluid and toss up.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

6.5 Trillion Won or USD 4.5 bio. What's not clear if this is part of KF-21 overall first batch, including export order ? Or this is overall value for Indonesia 48 order ? I tend to see the first one.

In that case the first batch (KF-21 Blk 1) included some export order to Indonesia. While in media Indonesia MinDef aim for Blk 2, which as this moment still in development. The talk for Indonesia order on original agreement is to assembly in DI facility. This just shown the negotiation still fluid.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
  • The deal according to this still 48 but divide into 3 batches of 16,
  • Not cleae yet if it will be Blk 2 or Batch 1, as ROK talk there will be export order on existing Blk 1 in production line. While Indonesia MinDef already talk if deal continues, Indonesia batches will be part of Multirole Blk 2.
  • Not clear yet how far Industrial cooperation that DI got from KAI.
So based on this the target of 11-12 squadron will come from:
  • 3 sq of Rafale with options of 4 sq (if additional option of 12-18 being taken),
  • 2 sq of M346FA as Hawk 200 replacement,
  • 3 sq of KF-21 as F-16 replacement (which in my opinion more coincide with KF-21 blk 2 timing).
The other 3 sq in my opinion put it as interim as it will be stop gap until TAI KAAN with ITAR free engine available. The Flankers could also be keep until KAAN ready with talk of all Su-27 can be replace by Su-35 and Su-30 will be maintain as Su-30 Mk2. The composition still speculate from current 11-5 or 9-7 or 8-8 combo of Su-30Mk2 and Su-27/35.

All this just base on the rumours and speculation base on procurement contract that MinDef already talk in media and marketing lobby rumours. Personally for those 3 sq of Interim Fighters, I'm speculating on 1 sq of Flankers combo and 2 sq of J-10B. Why ? Because shown Indonesia keep embracing BRICS (especially in defense co-op) to China and Russia, and second thing as the fiscally affordable solution. The Flankers and J-10B will share same engine and being station on Eastern Indonesia.
 
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