How about Google?
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Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues
- Thread starter Chino
- Start date
All South China Sea countries have overlapping claims, with Vietnam currently controls most Spratly Islands in this region. They dispute against each other.
Map of various national outposts in the Spratly Islands
China has 14 land neigbors,
India is the only one China has real territorial problems with. That makes having problems with one out of 14, it's not so bad as many claimed.
Now for something completely different.
If possession is 9/10 of the law, as Kenshin has stated, then those islands which China has built military bases on are now Chinese territory, regardless of the legality of their presence. Yet the US is still sailing ships through them using the principle of Freedom of Navigation (FON). An example from April 2020
Which takes precedence? Possession or international recognition? It seems to me that international recognition is more important than possession.
I am thinking back to the Falklands as well as Gibraltar. Argentina seized the Falklands in '82 but the international community denounced the move. Now, both the Falklands and Gibraltar are recognized as British overseas territories though other countries can rightfully claim the land as historically theirs. However, it is because the international community recognizes them as British that Argentine and Spanish efforts to reclaim those lands are essentially stalled. To my mind, the international community hasn't made up its mind on the various islands being disputed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. But that doesn't make possession the go-to rule for deciding which islands belong to whom. So, I would disagree with Kenshin about the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai islands being rightfully Japanese because Japan controls them. That sort of thinking is what led to colonialism and imperialism - another issue Japan hasn't properly confronted (in my opinion).
If possession is 9/10 of the law, as Kenshin has stated, then those islands which China has built military bases on are now Chinese territory, regardless of the legality of their presence. Yet the US is still sailing ships through them using the principle of Freedom of Navigation (FON). An example from April 2020
Which takes precedence? Possession or international recognition? It seems to me that international recognition is more important than possession.
I am thinking back to the Falklands as well as Gibraltar. Argentina seized the Falklands in '82 but the international community denounced the move. Now, both the Falklands and Gibraltar are recognized as British overseas territories though other countries can rightfully claim the land as historically theirs. However, it is because the international community recognizes them as British that Argentine and Spanish efforts to reclaim those lands are essentially stalled. To my mind, the international community hasn't made up its mind on the various islands being disputed by Japan, China, and Taiwan. But that doesn't make possession the go-to rule for deciding which islands belong to whom. So, I would disagree with Kenshin about the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai islands being rightfully Japanese because Japan controls them. That sort of thinking is what led to colonialism and imperialism - another issue Japan hasn't properly confronted (in my opinion).
Best argument is naturally agreement with party you are arguing with, that validate your claims(like border demarcation).
In cases you stated it's actual power that takes precedence.
International recognition by itself is one tool that force decision of dispute without actual agreement among contenders. Unless both parties agree that such recognition can be an arbiter in dispute.
I would say short of power, legal arguments(past agreements, or right of self determination vs territorial integrity where applicable) hold more water.
Then historical precedents, in absence of legal claim.
If legal arguments can't be made, then power(military, economical, diplomatic(international recognition is extension of this)) will determine who will have territory.
So because international community is not always neutral it can be seen as another kind of power projection. As possession of territory is.
Standalone here is UNSC resolutions, especially under article 7. In essence it's threat of force that most powerful countries will not object, even support.
I think it will stay this way, till majority of world turn to liberal(human rights and democratic) values(most likely, as human rights endorsed by UN), or other universal value system.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
At least 80 plots of land near sensitive sites have been sold to Chinese and South Korean companies in the past decade and transactions are on the rise, according this article:
amp.scmp.com
"We do not believe it can be a coincidence’, says official within the Cabinet Secretariat."
Embassies often become an (ELINT) center for collecting military information from the host-country. But building multiple embassies close to military bases and installations in one country is too obvious, so it seems that they try to solve it with company offices and factories.
Japan suspicious as Chinese firms buy land near military bases
‘We do not believe it can be a coincidence’, says Japanese official.
amp.scmp.com
"We do not believe it can be a coincidence’, says official within the Cabinet Secretariat."
Embassies often become an (ELINT) center for collecting military information from the host-country. But building multiple embassies close to military bases and installations in one country is too obvious, so it seems that they try to solve it with company offices and factories.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Japan to drop fiscal 2021 budget plan for F-15 modification
Due to ballooning costs, Japan has decided not to include spending in the next budget for upgrading F-15 fighter jets to carry long-range cruise missiles.
www.japantimes.co.jp
Not very significant news as Japan is already producing the extended range ASM-3 for the F-2s and purchasing the JSM for the F-35s. Still I'm sure that the JASDF would like to have LRASMs as well.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
WRT China, many nations should not only worry about properties adjacent to military facilities but also next to key high technology industries. Chinese spying is just as aggressive on commercial entities as well.At least 80 plots of land near sensitive sites have been sold to Chinese and South Korean companies in the past decade and transactions are on the rise, according this article:
Japan suspicious as Chinese firms buy land near military bases
‘We do not believe it can be a coincidence’, says Japanese official.
"We do not believe it can be a coincidence’, says official within the Cabinet Secretariat."
Embassies often become an (ELINT) center for collecting military information from the host-country. But building multiple embassies close to military bases and installations in one country is too obvious, so it seems that they try to solve it with company offices and factories.
PLAN LHD Update from naval News
www.navalnews.com
Number three is on the way.
Five to follow.
Regards S
China's Third Type 075 LHD Taking Shape in Shanghai - Naval News
Photos by Chinese ship spotters show that China's third amphibious assault ship, a Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD) known as Type 075, is at an advanced stage of construction and will be ready for launch in early 2021.
www.navalnews.com
Number three is on the way.
Five to follow.
Regards S
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This link describes some recent legal disputes between Japan and S Korea.
www.realcleardefense.com
History Haunts Japan–South Korea Ties
Geopolitical expediency has previously pushed South Koreaand Japan closer together, but a painful past keeps intruding. The Seoul Central District Court last month delivered a verdict requiring&n
Northeast Asia update — Part 1
1. The 1st Boeing KC-46 tanker destined for the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) took its maiden flight. Japan is the KC-46 program’s first international customer and is scheduled to receive its first jet in 2021. While the aircraft is built in Everett, USA, Boeing’s Japanese partners produce 16% of the KC-46 airframe structure. Japan is now on contract for a total of four KC-46 tankers.
2. In Feb 2019, Airbus delivered its the first A330 MRTT to the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF). In 2015, the ROKAF placed an order for 4 KC-330 Cygnus, and each aircraft is equipped with the Airbus Refuelling Boom System, and can be configured in a variety of layouts to carry passengers and freight or for medevac purposes.
3. If the Taiwanese are sensible, they would place an order for 4 to 6 tankers too. That will not only extend the time their fighters can stay in the air but also the strike range of these fighters to assist in securing their SLOCs.
1. The 1st Boeing KC-46 tanker destined for the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) took its maiden flight. Japan is the KC-46 program’s first international customer and is scheduled to receive its first jet in 2021. While the aircraft is built in Everett, USA, Boeing’s Japanese partners produce 16% of the KC-46 airframe structure. Japan is now on contract for a total of four KC-46 tankers.
2. In Feb 2019, Airbus delivered its the first A330 MRTT to the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF). In 2015, the ROKAF placed an order for 4 KC-330 Cygnus, and each aircraft is equipped with the Airbus Refuelling Boom System, and can be configured in a variety of layouts to carry passengers and freight or for medevac purposes.
3. If the Taiwanese are sensible, they would place an order for 4 to 6 tankers too. That will not only extend the time their fighters can stay in the air but also the strike range of these fighters to assist in securing their SLOCs.
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Northeast Asia update — Part 2
5. Japan faces a complex situation concerning its relationship with Taiwan. Japan’s “One-China” policy recognizes the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and maintains Japan-Taiwan relations as a working relationship on a non-governmental basis. In relation to the defence of Taiwan, we need to watch the Japanese reaction to any PLA esclation carefully; if the JSDF sees an attack on Taiwan as an existential threat, their response will pull in the US 7th Fleet.
6. In the past, Tokyo could rely on Washington to “take care of” Taiwan. But these days are over, and given that I believe that Taiwan cannot survive on its own by the late 2030s. The more Japan does to assist, allows for the use bases and facilities in Japan for “the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East,” the more likely it is that the US will defend Japan, when JSDF troops are under PLA attack. Active American-Japanese preparations in relation to a Taiwan contingency would be a very big step. “Kishi referred to a recent increase in PRC war planes crossing median line in TW Strait and a need to study ways for JSDF to cooperate with/US forces defending Taiwan in event of PRC aggression.”
7. IMO, any step by Tokyo to defend Taipei will produce a reflexive PLA response. The CCP will find it necessary to retaliate, punishing Japan at any cost. As the effort to discipline Seoul for deploying THAAD radars shows, Beijing will bear significant pain—economic, political, reputational costs—if they deem it necessary. Just imagine how much more extreme a reaction the sensitive matter of Taiwan would produce.
8. Presently, the JSDF avoids sending active-duty military personnel or defence officials to Taiwan. Japan instead relies on informal channels using retired officers and even members of the National Diet to communicate and share perspectives on strategic issues.
4. While that may be the case, a more nuanced view will generate more insights on the regional security dynamics. Managing this complex multipolarity in Northeast Asia will be more difficult than Tokyo policymakers have found in the past, because there is no clear collective security formula that would capture the eclectic strengths and anxieties of the various countries involved.
5. Japan faces a complex situation concerning its relationship with Taiwan. Japan’s “One-China” policy recognizes the government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and maintains Japan-Taiwan relations as a working relationship on a non-governmental basis. In relation to the defence of Taiwan, we need to watch the Japanese reaction to any PLA esclation carefully; if the JSDF sees an attack on Taiwan as an existential threat, their response will pull in the US 7th Fleet.
6. In the past, Tokyo could rely on Washington to “take care of” Taiwan. But these days are over, and given that I believe that Taiwan cannot survive on its own by the late 2030s. The more Japan does to assist, allows for the use bases and facilities in Japan for “the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East,” the more likely it is that the US will defend Japan, when JSDF troops are under PLA attack. Active American-Japanese preparations in relation to a Taiwan contingency would be a very big step. “Kishi referred to a recent increase in PRC war planes crossing median line in TW Strait and a need to study ways for JSDF to cooperate with/US forces defending Taiwan in event of PRC aggression.”
7. IMO, any step by Tokyo to defend Taipei will produce a reflexive PLA response. The CCP will find it necessary to retaliate, punishing Japan at any cost. As the effort to discipline Seoul for deploying THAAD radars shows, Beijing will bear significant pain—economic, political, reputational costs—if they deem it necessary. Just imagine how much more extreme a reaction the sensitive matter of Taiwan would produce.
8. Presently, the JSDF avoids sending active-duty military personnel or defence officials to Taiwan. Japan instead relies on informal channels using retired officers and even members of the National Diet to communicate and share perspectives on strategic issues.
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Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
|"Whipps said nobody could dictate who his Pacific country of fewer than 20,000 people was friends with, recalling China’s decision in 2017 to effectively ban tour groups, branding it an illegal destination due to its lack of diplomatic status."|China sends fighters as Palau president, U.S. diplomat visit Taiwan
TAIPEI — Ten Chinese military aircraft including fighter jets entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone on Monday, as Palau’s president visited the Beijing-c…nationalpost.com
Apparently the US ambassador didn't take questions - but I guess he didn't need to. Just being there was a sign that Biden isn't going to roll-back Trump's last minute relaxation of regulations on meetings with Taiwanese officials.
At this point, does China wonder if it can split Taipei and Washington through concessions to the US, or does it just give up and assume it's in for another rocky 4 years?
Ah...thats why. For years Lion Air had often charterflights from Denpasar to Macau, then continue to Palau, and after that back again via Macau to Denpasar (DPS-MFM-ROR-MFM-DPS), but suddenly before the Covid-19 pandemic these flights stopped.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Japan to scrap 1% GDP cap on defense spending: Minister Kishi
Chinese incursions in Senkakus require 'radically different' budget approach
asia.nikkei.com
It will be many months before the defence budget for 2022 is proposed, but even if there aren't big increases lifting the self-imposed GDP% cap could enable Japan to have a more well-rounded military in the foreseeable future.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Taiwan announces two arms procurement deals with U.S.
The article refers to signing two contracts with the US for arms sales approved last year.
HIMARS - deliveries to complete by 2027
Coastal Harpoon Defence Systems - deliveries to complete by 2028
Taiwan probably would have preferred them sooner, but I expect some units will be deployed in the years running up to the completion dates, so probably not too bad in the circumstances.
The article refers to signing two contracts with the US for arms sales approved last year.
HIMARS - deliveries to complete by 2027
Coastal Harpoon Defence Systems - deliveries to complete by 2028
Taiwan probably would have preferred them sooner, but I expect some units will be deployed in the years running up to the completion dates, so probably not too bad in the circumstances.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
| "angering Beijing which regards Taiwan as its own territory." |/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/GQNJDFJSRJPIDH2W5JSDYA7F4U.jpg)
Japan deputy PM comment on defending Taiwan if invaded angers China
Japan's deputy prime minister said the country needed to defend Taiwan with the United States if the island was invaded, Kyodo news agency reported late on Monday, angering Beijing which regards Taiwan as its own territory.www.reuters.com
Interesting that these comments came from such a senior member of the Japanese government. I'm sure it doesn't reflect official policy, but it's another example of the Japanese political class finally waking up to the reality that Japan can't just camp down within its own borders and hope the US keeps it safe everywhere else.
This reaction was predictable, but i dont think china will boycot the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, becoming again number 1 will be a great propaganda performance.
Yep, I posted about it in the China Geopolitical & Geostrategic thread last week. What now makes it more interesting is that it's the Deputy PM and Finance Minister Taro Aso making the comments. Last week it was the Minister of Defence Yasuhide Nakayama, so IMHO this has the appearance of a new Japanese policy being floated and one that will be contentious both at home and in three particular nations; the PRC, North Korea, and with the current South Korean administration. Undoubtedly Vlad the Red will also put his roubles worth and oar into it as well, decrying Japanese militaristic adventurism.Japan deputy PM comment on defending Taiwan if invaded angers China
Japan's deputy prime minister said the country needed to defend Taiwan with the United States if the island was invaded, Kyodo news agency reported late on Monday, angering Beijing which regards Taiwan as its own territory.
Interesting that these comments came from such a senior member of the Japanese government. I'm sure it doesn't reflect official policy, but it's another example of the Japanese political class finally waking up to the reality that Japan can't just camp down within its own borders and hope the US keeps it safe everywhere else.
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
I agree, this is clearly an attempt to get towards a new policy of direct involvement to protect Taiwan alongside the US.
However, although it will be controversial, I think that it may not be as unpopular as some would think. Japan's "pacifist" position has always been strongest amongst the war generation, and these days they're mostly gone. Even someone who is 80 will have been too young to remember World War II.
Japanese sentiment towards Taiwan is already very friendly. When you couple both of those factors with China's constant ramping up of overt aggression, I can see enough Japanese people being convinced that it's necessary to help defend Taiwan that it turns into government policy, whether unofficial or official.
I know an 81 year old who has a vivid memory of the war. Pretty lights in the sky, & she didn't understand why her mother (died aged 95 or so - I remember her) was crying & dragging her to a shelter, while carrying her little brother & yelling at her big sister to keep up. My wife's talking to her on the phone right now.
It was July 28th 1945 (I looked it up). 41% of Ujiyamada was burned that night. Unless the USAAF was trying to wipe out the pearl industry, or destroy the Ise grand shrine, it was pretty pointless. By then, the planners of the raids had a lot more bombing capacity than targets.