Japan, Koreas, China and Taiwan regional issues

[swerve]

So according to this article the US supports Japan with the plan to become the third most powerful country in the world. With increasing the defence budget for 100% Japan wants to achieve that in just 5 years!

I wonder how they want to achieve that without WMD.

Biden steunt Japans plan om op twee na sterkste leger ter wereld te vormen

Het is de eerste keer dat de Japanse premier Washington bezoekt. Het bezoek moet symbool staan voor een versteviging van de militaire en economische samenwerking tussen de twee landen.

nos.nl

Crap reporting.

It could have the third biggest military budget converted at prevailing exchange rates & ignoring the massive increase in Russian spending this year, but obviously that isn't the same thing as the most powerful armed forces. It ignores price differences & how long that level of spending has been going on.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

In diplomatic coup, Taiwan president speaks to Czech president-elect

A highly unusual move given the lack of formal ties.

www.reuters.com

This is an interesting development. The next president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, held a telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which most countries are usually afraid to do. He appears to be much more pro-Taiwanese than his pro-China predecessor, and advocates a "two-system" approach to supplement the existing one-China policy. Don't ask me what that means in principle, but that he's even talking about it is significant.

I'm sure China will be frustrated by this. The more that governments officially interact with Taiwan, the less scope it has to push back in a meaningful way. But I don't see any other way forward for democracies. Pandering to Chinese foreign policy hasn't made China less aggressive.

 

[ngatimozart]

In diplomatic coup, Taiwan president speaks to Czech president-elect

A highly unusual move given the lack of formal ties.

www.reuters.com

This is an interesting development. The next president of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, held a telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which most countries are usually afraid to do. He appears to be much more pro-Taiwanese than his pro-China predecessor, and advocates a "two-system" approach to supplement the existing one-China policy. Don't ask me what that means in principle, but that he's even talking about it is significant.

I'm sure China will be frustrated by this. The more that governments officially interact with Taiwan, the less scope it has to push back in a meaningful way. But I don't see any other way forward for democracies. Pandering to Chinese foreign policy hasn't made China less aggressive.

Both the Czechs and Slovaks manufacture weapons systems that would be good for the Taiwanese.

 

[Vivendi]

CIA Director Burns says Xi has ordered his armed forces to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Also says that the CIA believes Xi was "surprised and unsettled" by Russia's performance in Ukraine.

Burns says they don't believe he has decided to conduct an invasion in 2027 "or any other year" but that this highlights "the seriousness of his focus and ambition".

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621499592888967168

There has been quite a lot of signaling from various US officials the last few months regarding Taiwan and China...

 

[Vivendi]

Reuters reported just now that the UK allowed exports of submarine parts and technology to Taiwan last year. Exclusive: UK approves increased submarine-related exports to Taiwan, risking angering China

The value of licences granted by the British government to companies for the export of submarine-related components and technology to Taiwan totalled a record 167 million pounds ($201.29 million) during the first nine months of last year, according to UK government export licensing data. That is more than the previous six years combined, according to analysis by Reuters.

China is not amused it seems, and China's foreign ministry said in a comment "If this is true, it is a serious violation of the one-China principle, undermines China's sovereignty and security interests, and undermines peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”

I was somewhat surprised by this, I thought only the US was providing significant defence related export to Taiwan these days.

 

[koxinga]

I was somewhat surprised by this, I thought only the US was providing significant defence related export to Taiwan these days.

I am not surprised, given the complexity of such a program and there are probably certain techologies that the US are unable to supply, given they have not made a naval diesel submarine in decades. The Germans, French, Swedes, Dutch, Spanish, Italians along with the British (BAE) are all major players and leaders in the diesel electric sub space.

These suppliers either kept a low profile or use proxy companies / shell companies to offer a shred of pausible deniability to all concerned, much like how Iranians/NKs get around prying eyes.

 

[swerve]

I am not surprised, given the complexity of such a program and there are probably certain techologies that the US are unable to supply, given they have not made a naval diesel submarine in decades. The Germans, French, Swedes, Dutch, Spanish, Italians along with the British (BAE) are all major players and leaders in the diesel electric sub space.

BAE hasn't built a diesel submarine since 1993 - HMS Unicorn, now HMCS Windsor. All nuclear since then.

 

[Meriv90]

Plus not all of us produce oceanic ones.
Italy has mainly green water.
Most europeans ones should be under the 2k tons. Above and around 3k should be only Japanese, Dutch and Swedish (your Collins).

What would be Taiwan needs in term of submarines? Green water ones defending against invasions or Oceanic with VLS for deep strikes for example.

 

[Redlands18]

I am not surprised, given the complexity of such a program and there are probably certain techologies that the US are unable to supply, given they have not made a naval diesel submarine in decades. The Germans, French, Swedes, Dutch, Spanish, Italians along with the British (BAE) are all major players and leaders in the diesel electric sub space.

These suppliers either kept a low profile or use proxy companies / shell companies to offer a shred of pausible deniability to all concerned, much like how Iranians/NKs get around prying eyes.

The Italians are actually building German Type 212 Subs and haven't actually designed a new Submarine since the Sauro class in the 1970s. The Dutch built evolved versions of the US Barbel design, and their next Subs will be based on either, the Swedish A26, the French Barracuda (basically the Attack design), and the German Type 212CD.
In reality the only DE Submarine designers left in Europe are France, Germany, Sweden and Spain.

 

[Meriv90]

You would go for Spanish S80 vs a full Italian built U212NFS? Yes with German components but with design authority, proved by the NFS variation vs the German/Norwegian CD?

P.s. we keep designing them

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yo! Seems to not get the news that deserve, but Fincantieri showed for the first time a new submarine model for export at IDEX 2023, the S800. This is the first model of a new project of submarines intended for export, this model in particular would have 850 tons of displacement. <a href="https://t.co/ldqF6eadca">https://t.co/ldqF6eadca</a> <a href="https://t.co/9JDyNwYC4g">pic.twitter.com/9JDyNwYC4g</a></p>&mdash; Ciro Nappi (@CiroNappi6) <a href="

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627711765743038466

">February 20, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Ecco come sarà il nuovo sottomarino di Fincantieri S800 - Startmag

Il nuovo sottomarino di FIncantieri S800 è la classica piattaforma pensata per operare in acque costiere o poco profonde

www.startmag.it

Missioni segrete underwater. Ecco il mini-sottomarino di Fincantieri

Presentato ad Abu Dhabi il mini-sottomarino di Fincantieri S800, per le operazioni segrete in acque poco profonde

formiche.net

We just specialize for obvious geographic reasons and historic ones on the smaller side.

 

[koxinga]

BAE hasn't built a diesel submarine since 1993 - HMS Unicorn, now HMCS Windsor. All nuclear since then.

BAE operates in the same underwater space and some of the technology is used across both nuclear and diesel boats... BAE is supporting the Collins class if I am not mistaken.

The Taiwanese have their own design for the sub (no real surprises there, given the Clinton, Bush administrations were on-off about providing them with diesel boats); where they needed were components that probably did not make economic sense to develop on their own.

Plus not all of us produce oceanic ones.
Italy has mainly green water.
Most europeans ones should be under the 2k tons. Above and around 3k should be only Japanese, Dutch and Swedish (your Collins).

What would be Taiwan needs in term of submarines? Green water ones defending against invasions or Oceanic with VLS for deep strikes for example.

Just to clarify, they are not buying a full built submarine or design from Europe. They just need specific tech.

I do not want to presume what their CONOPS will be. But I have some guesses.

Deep strike with dedicated VLS sounds sexy but if you look deeper, it has limited impact or value. With 8 boats and 4 - 6 VLS cells per boat, you are looking at less than 50 warshots. Against a target rich environment, that is a drop in the ocean and we see this in Ukraine. In wartime, reloads at Keelung would be very difficult so it might well be a once off capability. For their first time building a sub, I doubt they will want to increase the risk of the design and they will stick with what they know.

Anti-invasion, tying down PLAN ASW forces would be a militarily relevant and economical use of subs.

 

[Ananda]

Taiwan Denies Drafting Special Budgets for Submarine Follow-Ons and AEGIS Frigates - Naval News

Taiwanese media reported recently that Taiwan's ministry of national defense (MND) was tasked with drafting "special budgets" for submarines and frigates. However the MND denied such claims.

www.navalnews.com

Taiwan first indigenous submarine schedule to be launch by September this year. Shown their project is on going and so far on schedule, base on this month old news. This is the bespoke design, which even though call indigenous design, I do believe they are using some 'consultants'. Looking the design (which in my opinion derive from their existing Dutch build subs) then most likely the 'consultants' coming from 'Euro' zone naval industries.

They (the consultants) for obvious reasons will keep their name hidden, and I don't see Taiwan is in need to disclose them. Just as Koxinga put, what they need is expertise, some parts, and tech as base. The rest they're doing it in house, as they have mature shipyard industries.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

The Italian defence minister and it's delegation are currently in Japan to attend the DSEI 2023.
The main reason is of course the GCAP fighter program, but many other military and political matters are being discussed.

Italy also confirmed they will send the Cavour CSG in the Indo-Pacific within the end of this year/early 2024

Italy looks to the Indo-Pacific by sending carrier, fostering defence ties - Decode39

The deployment of the flagship Cavour aircraft carrier confirms Rome’s desire to become a proactive player in the region, closely connected to the Med.

decode39.com

 

[seaspear]

This article from Al Jazeera refers to P.L.A officials scrutinising the Ukraine Russian war and lessons to be learnt in its context for China in particular for any actions in Taiwan it was noted to have an ability to shoot down the Starlink satellite network, the use of drones even Himars was discussed , but especially what can be learnt from the damage to Russian tanks and counters
Ukraine war focuses China military minds on Starlink, US missiles | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

 

[Vivendi]

Tom Shugart with a quite interesting thread on Twitter on air bases.

Tom Shugart on Twitter: "Let’s talk about airbase hardening and dispersal, shall we? Some of you may have seen a recent story about the USAF pulling some of its F-15 fighters out of Kadena AFB in Okinawa, to be replaced by rotational fighter deployments. https://t.co/G167kX0aI9" / Twitter


China has been ramping up much more than I thought. And it seems the US and allies in the region has some catching up to do.

What do people think about his analysis?

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

What do people think about his analysis?

General Wilsback said earlier this year that it was more productive to disperse equipment, as countries like China have munitions that can penetrate most hardened defences.

If China is building more hardened hangers I'm not sure they're going to work against something like JASSM. It may be that they have propaganda value, or the PLA believes that they would be useful against some Taiwanese missiles that may be numerous but have more limited penetration capabilities compared to the US inventory.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Taiwan nearing deal on missile trucks, self-propelled artillery from Czech Republic | Taiwan News | Mar. 28, 2023 13:12

www.taiwannews.com.tw

Taiwan is reportedly discussing deal with Czechia for between 200 and 400 large semi-trailer trucks for mounting Taiwanese cruise missiles, as well as an unknown number of self-propelled artillery units. The artillery model is not known either, but it is assumed to be a modern variant of the Czech DANA, either DITA or MORANA.

This would be a fairly unprecedented arms deal, as right now the only country that sells new units to Taiwan is the USA. France has upgraded or offered to upgrade existing ships and aircraft, but not sell new ones. Countries like Japan and the UK have provided assistance with the indigenous submarine project, but not sold complete weapons of any real size. It could also be better value for money.

(Reportedly Biden has cancelled/deferred the Paladin contract due to production issues.)

 

[Vivendi]

General Wilsback said earlier this year that it was more productive to disperse equipment, as countries like China have munitions that can penetrate most hardened defences.

If China is building more hardened hangers I'm not sure they're going to work against something like JASSM. It may be that they have propaganda value, or the PLA believes that they would be useful against some Taiwanese missiles that may be numerous but have more limited penetration capabilities compared to the US inventory.

Well it seems to me that China has done two things:

1. Built a large number of hardened aircraft shelters
2. Build an even larger number of non-hardened shelters

So they have basically used both techniques....

 

[koxinga]

Well it seems to me that China has done two things:

1. Built a large number of hardened aircraft shelters
2. Build an even larger number of non-hardened shelters

So they have basically used both techniques....

The challenger for planners is there are more targets on mainland China that there are munitions to bomb them. It is a real issue.

It's not about how well as JASSM can penetrate the hardened shelters, but how many JASSM's you have in the first place to sustain a campaign.

 

[John Fedup]

The challenger for planners is there are more targets on mainland China that there are munitions to bomb them. It is a real issue.

It's not about how well as JASSM can penetrate the hardened shelters, but how many JASSM's you have in the first place to sustain a campaign.

Realistically any significant direct missile attacks into mainland China will likely end with a nuclear exchange. The number of available JASSMs won’t matter, only the nuke BMs will. Both Russia and the US have more. Question is, would Russia add to a Chinese nuclear strike response?