I don't want to burst your bubble here, but it looks like US is already on its way to dump Pakistan from Bush's reactions on the the latest visit to Pakistan. Pakistan need to get all it can while the Americans are still treating it as an allie.lakhani said:colvin, you are right if you are just loooking at the past of USA and Pak relations. BUt this time the case is little different...
If you have seen the last press conference of musharraf. He clearly stated stated that US will again cheat us if they ever had an option. But thye dont have any.
He stated that US is interested in energy resources of central asia, and if they want to supply these resouces to the world they have to come to Pakistan, as it has the ideal location for this purpose.
so, we can trust on them for deal of F-16, the problem which i am seeing in this deal(this is just impression which I got from statements of musharraf an other high ranked officials) is that pakistan is asking for ToT for some of the technologies of F-16, which U.S is resisting in, and this is the whole reason why Pakistan, got interseted in j-10s.
As now a days Pakistan is interested in building it s own industry and trying to get some experience with least investment.....lolz
J-10
- Thread starter chinawhite
- Start date
tphuang please read again lakhani's post carefully, before responding with unsubstantiated single liners:tphuang said:I don't want to burst your bubble here, but it looks like US is already on its way to dump Pakistan from Bush's reactions on the the latest visit to Pakistan. Pakistan need to get all it can while the Americans are still treating it as an allie.
What lakhanis has clearly stated is that, this time around, America needs Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs US.
Admittedly, India is a very large country, and US the only superpower, and they have their unique regional / international interests vis a vis China's containment.
I am sure Musharraf has done his home work too, and knows precisely where Pakistan's interest lie. As long as Pakistan's interests are being served (which I believe are being served as good as one could expect under the circumstance) Pakistan should not be overtly concerned about USA's dealings with a third country.
Therefore, there is no bubble that is going to be burst any time soon. As lakhani hinted quite rightly, America need s a lot of energy / trade from central asia, and the corridor on both accounts runs through Pakistan. Americans can tilt towards India to their hearts content, but they should also have to understand that Pakistan will always have China first policy, when it comes to he use of Gawadar based energy / trade corridor with central asia / gulf.
Coming to J-10, I have gut feeling that we'll see J-10 in PAF colours within 5 years (may be in small numbers initially) regardless of Pakistan purchasing new F16s or not. J- 10 should make a worthy defender of Pakistani skies with more powerful WS-10A engine and even more sophisticated avionics.
you are right,what I want to say is ,you need to build self aviation industry. Even if F-16 is better than J-10, but the U.S.A will never give you the technology. Like China , in 1950's, USSR was our friend, but later,it was hostility. From it we began to know how important self-independance was.So now ,when we import weapons, technology must be included,like su-27, now we can make and improve it.
from FC-1,from J-10 ,little by little, establish your avitation industry. I believe one day ,you can develop yourself fighter.
Pakistan and China has been friends for a long time, will it last forever? nobody could tell.
from FC-1,from J-10 ,little by little, establish your avitation industry. I believe one day ,you can develop yourself fighter.
Pakistan and China has been friends for a long time, will it last forever? nobody could tell.
china will not sell pakistan the J-10. the reason is very simple. They can't! the J-10 currently use the AL-31 engine. This engine is made in Russia and russian dont export to Pakistan. There is a no third party export rule on alot of russian weapons and parts. Besides china has barely for hereself.
When the Ws-10a engine begins to be put into J-10s the J-10 can be exported. The Ws-10a has more thrust than the current AL-31 engine the j-10 is using. It is also 20 percent lighter and more fuel efficient.
In the future the J-10 will most likely have a air refuel rod and besides Pakistan will never be stupid enough to fly into Indian air space; it is protected by advanced SAMs.
When the Ws-10a engine begins to be put into J-10s the J-10 can be exported. The Ws-10a has more thrust than the current AL-31 engine the j-10 is using. It is also 20 percent lighter and more fuel efficient.
In the future the J-10 will most likely have a air refuel rod and besides Pakistan will never be stupid enough to fly into Indian air space; it is protected by advanced SAMs.
WS-10A? that pains me!zoolander said:china will not sell pakistan the J-10. the reason is very simple. They can't! the J-10 currently use the AL-31 engine. This engine is made in Russia and russian dont export to Pakistan. There is a no third party export rule on alot of russian weapons and parts. Besides china has barely for hereself.
In the future the J-10 will most likely have a air refuel rod and besides Pakistan will never be stupid enough to fly into Indian air space; it is protected by advanced SAMs.
Yesterday ,news from China media said a new egine has finished its develop, they gave it a definition: can be use!
the news didn't say it was WS-10a, I'm afraid it was.
Do you know "can be use" in Chinese language mean ? that means it can work, can be use in fighters, but don't expect it is a very good engine.
read, that was 2 lines and 2 sentences. If you don't know what the single line policy around here is, maybe you should read some of the guidelines. I've posted enough in DT and the sister forum SDF to know what I'm doing, thank you very much.asaracen said:tphuang please read again lakhani's post carefully, before responding with unsubstantiated single liners:
What lakhanis has clearly stated is that, this time around, America needs Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs US.
Admittedly, India is a very large country, and US the only superpower, and they have their unique regional / international interests vis a vis China's containment.
I am sure Musharraf has done his home work too, and knows precisely where Pakistan's interest lie. As long as Pakistan's interests are being served (which I believe are being served as good as one could expect under the circumstance) Pakistan should not be overtly concerned about USA's dealings with a third country.
Therefore, there is no bubble that is going to be burst any time soon. As lakhani hinted quite rightly, America need s a lot of energy / trade from central asia, and the corridor on both accounts runs through Pakistan. Americans can tilt towards India to their hearts content, but they should also have to understand that Pakistan will always have China first policy, when it comes to he use of Gawadar based energy / trade corridor with central asia / gulf.
Coming to J-10, I have gut feeling that we'll see J-10 in PAF colours within 5 years (may be in small numbers initially) regardless of Pakistan purchasing new F16s or not. J- 10 should make a worthy defender of Pakistani skies with more powerful WS-10A engine and even more sophisticated avionics.
And you obviously don't understand the meaning of a discussion. You see, you are actually allowed to disagree with other people.
So, lakhani said "What lakhanis has clearly stated is that, this time around, America needs Pakistan as much as Pakistan needs US. " according to you and I said America doesn't and my evidence is that Bush looks like he was about to drop Pakistan in the most recent trip. So, will you calm down and stop taking every comment against Pakistan so personally?
To Colvin, the engine mentionned yesterday is WS-10A. According to the certification news, it is said to have passed all the tests. To me, that means it met the expected thrust of 13.2 tonne thrust. I wouldn't worry about it that much if I were you. They have been testing it out on J-11B recently. (including the CFTE picture with both J-11B and WZ-10) If it is successful, you can pretty much expect a J-11B regiment to come out sometimes this year. Also, they want to find out what the reliability of this thing is. They have run the 300 hour endurance test on it, but they don't know if it will achieve the service time spec. And they won't until a J-11 have used it for that long.
I will split data to better organize
Main data:
Maximum augmented thrust, kgf .....12500
Minimum specific fuel consumption, kg/ kgf.h .....0,67
Weight, kg .....1570
Length, m .....4,99
Inlet diameter, m .....0,9
Maximum external diameter, m ..... 1,28
The AL-31F is a high-efficient, high temperature turbofan with module configuration to be installed on SU-37, SU-30MK aircraft as well as on other modification of SU-27S.
The AL-31F can operate in a wide range of reliably altitudes and flight speeds. The engine works reliably in conditions of deep surge of the air intake with M=2 as well as in flat, straight and inverted spins. The engine ensures unique aircraft maneuverability including super dynamic aerobatics in negative speeds up to 200 km/h.
The AL-31F provides high gas dynamic stability and strength which maintain engine reliable performance in extreme condition of inlet distortion. The AL-31F can be manufactured both in standard and tropic version.
Reports of deliveries made through 2002 and planned transfers of large quantities of aircraft of the Su-27/30 family permit a relatively ac*curate estimate of this segment of the AL-31F engine market. We use the average price of $2.8 million per engine. The actual price fluctuates between $2.7 million and $3 million, but some of the payments, especially in the early 1990s, were made by commodity deliveries or on a clearing basis. Twenty eight Su-27UBK combat trainers were delivered to China in 2000-2002 by way of payment of Russian government debts. We estimate the price of AL-31FP en*gines for Su-30MKIs at $3 million.
It should be noted that the standard interna*tional practice is to deliver 30% of reserve en*gines along with a commercial batch. There has been no information in the Russian press about such deliveries, but if we assume that engines were delivered on such a scale - either along with commercial consignments or shortly there*after - the delivery of the 350 AL-31F engines to China, India and Vietnam installed on air*craft would have been followed by the shipment of approximately 100 engines, a value of up to $280 million. With the engines being used in the mountain conditions of high humidity and temperatures, and with Chinese and Indian pi*lots currently lacking the necessary experience .We already know that China has chosen the AL-31F engine modification with the low-set unit arrangement - the AL-31FN - for its J-10 light fighter, developed from Israel's Lavi project. The Russian press has reported a contract for 300 such engines. Sometime in 2005-2007, when the fleet of Su-27/30/J-11 heavy fighters reaches 350 units, China will need to manufacture 600-800 fourth-generation light fighters to balance its Air Force, not counting probable exports (primarily to Pakistan and Iran). This means that total demand will reach 1,000 AL-31FN engines at the nominal price of $2.8 billion. It is clear that China is unlikely to import such quantities of engines, especially after the license for their production has been sold to India. Therefore, we can expect that, within a few years, when the question of launching the large-scale production of J-10 appears on the agenda, China will want to acquire the right to assemble AL-31F or AL-31FN engines at its own facilities. A less favorable option for Russia is that China will manage to develop its own analog of AL-31. However, even in this case, Russia will be able to deliver up to 300 contract engines and probably individual high-tech components for the Chinese analogs.
It is less likely that AL-31Fs will be installed on India's LCA fighters. First of all, India is trying to develop its own Kaveri engine. Its chances are poor, but that does not greatly improve the outlook for AL-31F. The problem is that the LCA project has dragged on for too long and, as a result, the prototype has grown obsolete before the beginning of its serial production and even before the end of its testing. Given India's plans to import large quantities of Su-30MKI multi-use fighters, MiG-29K naval fighters and Mirage 2000s, the scale of funding for the LCA project rules out the possibility of any serial production in the near future.
Thus, if reports about the contract for 300 AL-31FN engines are true, at present we can assume with a high degree of certainty that deliveries of engines and their components, combined with the possible transfer of documentation and technologies for the production of AL-31Fs in China for its national J-10 fighter, may reach $800-850 million.
Market of AL-31F upgrading
The AL-31F engine was developed in the mid-1970s for fighters with a takeoff weigh of 23 tonnes and maximum takeoff weight of 28 tonnes. Hence two engines with a maximum thrust of 7.8 tonnes and afterburning thrust of 12.5 tonnes guaranteed Su-27 interceptors a fairly good thrust-to-weight ratio. Later the Sukhoi Design Bureau derived a number of upgraded modifications with greater capabilities from the basic model. Moreover, in this sense Su-27 not simply shared the fate of the majority of successful fighters of the third and fourth generations that went through several stages of upgrading but proved to be a very flexible aircraft with a relatively ample advancement potential. Traditionally such advancement implies the enhancement of the strike potential and the addition of a second pilot. Clearly this implies an increase in the regular and maximum takeoff weight of the aircraft. On the average during the lifetime of a fighter family the weight grows at the rate of one percent a year and the Su-27/30 series definitely fits the pattern. The general parameters of aircraft of this series are shown in Table 3.
It is paradoxical that while the combat capabilities of Su-27/30 fighters have been dynamically boosted, efforts to enhance the thrust of AL-31F engines have been lagging behind badly. As a result such a crucial parameter for aircraft of the fourth generation as thrust-to-weight ratio is unsatisfactory in the latest modifications of Su-30. Moreover, the fact that in India and China Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK are used in a hot and humid environment and often in mountainous conditions makes things even worse. These conditions further undermine the thrust-to-weight ratio of the aircraft delivered of foreign customers.
This alone creates sufficient prerequisites for replacing AL-31F engines with more powerful ones in four plus generation fighters delivered to China and India in the foreseeable future. Such a replacement may be conducted simultaneously and in a package with building up the computer capabilities of onboard radioelectornic systems and offering new air-borne weaponry. Russian upgrading programs should offer an edge over Israeli projects sponging on Russian platforms.
In addition to adjusting Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK to modern thrust-to-weigh ratio requirements the engine thrust enhancement may come handy in the context of the probable integration of longer range and consequently heavier weapons, especially of the air-to-surface class. The PJ-10 3-tonne anti-ship missile may become such a weapon for the Indian fighters and the air-borne version of the Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) ship-to-ship missile for Chinese. In general Russia should launch work now to offer competitive packages of upgrading fighters delivered to China and India with the enhancement of their energy capabilities as their crucial component.
The market of AL-31F engines with an enhanced thrust is not limited to the Su-30MKI aircraft sold under delivery or license contracts. The following conclusions can be made about market volumes of these engines in the 1990s and in the near future, based on the most conservative estimates of the price of the AL-31F and its modifications, and the demand of the Chinese and Indian Air Forces for aircraft of the Su-27/30 series:
The nominal price of engines transferred in the framework of contracts completed in the 1990s was $980 million. The price of engines transferred in addition to the delivery contracts is estimated at up to $280 million.
According to open sources, delivery contracts provide for the transfer of 138 AL-31F and AL-31FP engines, worth up to $385 million, in 2003-2005.
The biggest revenues are expected from the license contracts for the production of J-11s in China and Su-30MKIs in India. The minimal price of the engine component of the deals is about $1.7 billion.
China's minimal need for AL-31FN engines for launching the production of the J-10 light fighter is 300 units, worth $850 million. Production on a larger scale will require the acquisition of a license for the manufacture of AL-31FN engines at local facilities or the development of a Chinese analog of the engine.
Thus, even according to the most conservative estimates, the AL-31 engine market in the coming decade may run up to some $3 billion.
Main data:
Maximum augmented thrust, kgf .....12500
Minimum specific fuel consumption, kg/ kgf.h .....0,67
Weight, kg .....1570
Length, m .....4,99
Inlet diameter, m .....0,9
Maximum external diameter, m ..... 1,28
The AL-31F is a high-efficient, high temperature turbofan with module configuration to be installed on SU-37, SU-30MK aircraft as well as on other modification of SU-27S.
The AL-31F can operate in a wide range of reliably altitudes and flight speeds. The engine works reliably in conditions of deep surge of the air intake with M=2 as well as in flat, straight and inverted spins. The engine ensures unique aircraft maneuverability including super dynamic aerobatics in negative speeds up to 200 km/h.
The AL-31F provides high gas dynamic stability and strength which maintain engine reliable performance in extreme condition of inlet distortion. The AL-31F can be manufactured both in standard and tropic version.
Reports of deliveries made through 2002 and planned transfers of large quantities of aircraft of the Su-27/30 family permit a relatively ac*curate estimate of this segment of the AL-31F engine market. We use the average price of $2.8 million per engine. The actual price fluctuates between $2.7 million and $3 million, but some of the payments, especially in the early 1990s, were made by commodity deliveries or on a clearing basis. Twenty eight Su-27UBK combat trainers were delivered to China in 2000-2002 by way of payment of Russian government debts. We estimate the price of AL-31FP en*gines for Su-30MKIs at $3 million.
It should be noted that the standard interna*tional practice is to deliver 30% of reserve en*gines along with a commercial batch. There has been no information in the Russian press about such deliveries, but if we assume that engines were delivered on such a scale - either along with commercial consignments or shortly there*after - the delivery of the 350 AL-31F engines to China, India and Vietnam installed on air*craft would have been followed by the shipment of approximately 100 engines, a value of up to $280 million. With the engines being used in the mountain conditions of high humidity and temperatures, and with Chinese and Indian pi*lots currently lacking the necessary experience .We already know that China has chosen the AL-31F engine modification with the low-set unit arrangement - the AL-31FN - for its J-10 light fighter, developed from Israel's Lavi project. The Russian press has reported a contract for 300 such engines. Sometime in 2005-2007, when the fleet of Su-27/30/J-11 heavy fighters reaches 350 units, China will need to manufacture 600-800 fourth-generation light fighters to balance its Air Force, not counting probable exports (primarily to Pakistan and Iran). This means that total demand will reach 1,000 AL-31FN engines at the nominal price of $2.8 billion. It is clear that China is unlikely to import such quantities of engines, especially after the license for their production has been sold to India. Therefore, we can expect that, within a few years, when the question of launching the large-scale production of J-10 appears on the agenda, China will want to acquire the right to assemble AL-31F or AL-31FN engines at its own facilities. A less favorable option for Russia is that China will manage to develop its own analog of AL-31. However, even in this case, Russia will be able to deliver up to 300 contract engines and probably individual high-tech components for the Chinese analogs.
It is less likely that AL-31Fs will be installed on India's LCA fighters. First of all, India is trying to develop its own Kaveri engine. Its chances are poor, but that does not greatly improve the outlook for AL-31F. The problem is that the LCA project has dragged on for too long and, as a result, the prototype has grown obsolete before the beginning of its serial production and even before the end of its testing. Given India's plans to import large quantities of Su-30MKI multi-use fighters, MiG-29K naval fighters and Mirage 2000s, the scale of funding for the LCA project rules out the possibility of any serial production in the near future.
Thus, if reports about the contract for 300 AL-31FN engines are true, at present we can assume with a high degree of certainty that deliveries of engines and their components, combined with the possible transfer of documentation and technologies for the production of AL-31Fs in China for its national J-10 fighter, may reach $800-850 million.
Market of AL-31F upgrading
The AL-31F engine was developed in the mid-1970s for fighters with a takeoff weigh of 23 tonnes and maximum takeoff weight of 28 tonnes. Hence two engines with a maximum thrust of 7.8 tonnes and afterburning thrust of 12.5 tonnes guaranteed Su-27 interceptors a fairly good thrust-to-weight ratio. Later the Sukhoi Design Bureau derived a number of upgraded modifications with greater capabilities from the basic model. Moreover, in this sense Su-27 not simply shared the fate of the majority of successful fighters of the third and fourth generations that went through several stages of upgrading but proved to be a very flexible aircraft with a relatively ample advancement potential. Traditionally such advancement implies the enhancement of the strike potential and the addition of a second pilot. Clearly this implies an increase in the regular and maximum takeoff weight of the aircraft. On the average during the lifetime of a fighter family the weight grows at the rate of one percent a year and the Su-27/30 series definitely fits the pattern. The general parameters of aircraft of this series are shown in Table 3.
It is paradoxical that while the combat capabilities of Su-27/30 fighters have been dynamically boosted, efforts to enhance the thrust of AL-31F engines have been lagging behind badly. As a result such a crucial parameter for aircraft of the fourth generation as thrust-to-weight ratio is unsatisfactory in the latest modifications of Su-30. Moreover, the fact that in India and China Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK are used in a hot and humid environment and often in mountainous conditions makes things even worse. These conditions further undermine the thrust-to-weight ratio of the aircraft delivered of foreign customers.
This alone creates sufficient prerequisites for replacing AL-31F engines with more powerful ones in four plus generation fighters delivered to China and India in the foreseeable future. Such a replacement may be conducted simultaneously and in a package with building up the computer capabilities of onboard radioelectornic systems and offering new air-borne weaponry. Russian upgrading programs should offer an edge over Israeli projects sponging on Russian platforms.
In addition to adjusting Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK to modern thrust-to-weigh ratio requirements the engine thrust enhancement may come handy in the context of the probable integration of longer range and consequently heavier weapons, especially of the air-to-surface class. The PJ-10 3-tonne anti-ship missile may become such a weapon for the Indian fighters and the air-borne version of the Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) ship-to-ship missile for Chinese. In general Russia should launch work now to offer competitive packages of upgrading fighters delivered to China and India with the enhancement of their energy capabilities as their crucial component.
The market of AL-31F engines with an enhanced thrust is not limited to the Su-30MKI aircraft sold under delivery or license contracts. The following conclusions can be made about market volumes of these engines in the 1990s and in the near future, based on the most conservative estimates of the price of the AL-31F and its modifications, and the demand of the Chinese and Indian Air Forces for aircraft of the Su-27/30 series:
The nominal price of engines transferred in the framework of contracts completed in the 1990s was $980 million. The price of engines transferred in addition to the delivery contracts is estimated at up to $280 million.
According to open sources, delivery contracts provide for the transfer of 138 AL-31F and AL-31FP engines, worth up to $385 million, in 2003-2005.
The biggest revenues are expected from the license contracts for the production of J-11s in China and Su-30MKIs in India. The minimal price of the engine component of the deals is about $1.7 billion.
China's minimal need for AL-31FN engines for launching the production of the J-10 light fighter is 300 units, worth $850 million. Production on a larger scale will require the acquisition of a license for the manufacture of AL-31FN engines at local facilities or the development of a Chinese analog of the engine.
Thus, even according to the most conservative estimates, the AL-31 engine market in the coming decade may run up to some $3 billion.
WS-10A's thrust equals 13200kg which is more than the Al-31F but less than the AL-31FN
The WS-10a is the result of chinese, russian american technology. The core of the engine is a result of F-110 reverse engineering. The rest of the engine is chinese with a little bit of influence from the Al-31f.
The Al-31FN has more thrust than the Ws-10a and it have avaliable a 3d thrust vectoring controls. the WS-10a is suppose to get TVC soon.
The WS-10a is 20 percent lighter than the Al-31s. Should the chinese make WS-10s or buy Al-31fns?
The WS-10a is the result of chinese, russian american technology. The core of the engine is a result of F-110 reverse engineering. The rest of the engine is chinese with a little bit of influence from the Al-31f.
The Al-31FN has more thrust than the Ws-10a and it have avaliable a 3d thrust vectoring controls. the WS-10a is suppose to get TVC soon.
The WS-10a is 20 percent lighter than the Al-31s. Should the chinese make WS-10s or buy Al-31fns?