Israel: Golan Heights Up for Grabs?

[Waylander]

Do you think so?

The Hezbollah was not afraid of the IDF brigades and air forces why should they be afraid of the UN forces which are for sure not going to act as agressive as the IDF did?

And the IDF are not afraid of running simulated attacks against the UNIFIL forces which caused half a dozen incidents on the sea and more above ground and nearly lead to a shot down IDF plane by the french ground forces.

 

[eckherl]

Do you think so?

The Hezbollah was not afraid of the IDF brigades and air forces why should they be afraid of the UN forces which are for sure not going to act as agressive as the IDF did?

And the IDF are not afraid of running simulated attacks against the UNIFIL forces which caused half a dozen incidents on the sea and more above ground and nearly lead to a shot down IDF plane by the french ground forces.

It`s not a question of who they are afraid of, Hezzbollah has too many Middle Eastern countries that are giving them the big thumbs up for what they did to the IDF, why spoil that by attacking UNIFIL, for the big picture of things to come over there they will leave them alone, Irainian and Syrian influence will play into this also. look at it this way, Isreal and the U.S are not too popular with the United Nations right now, why ruin that by attacking other countries soldiers and getting those countries against you and start siding with Isreal and America. If UNIFIL isn`t attacked they wont do squat but watch the show. In the end this is bad news for Isreal.

 

[Waylander]

And this is the point.
It is bad for Israel.
Is somebody here really thinking that UNIFIL just now stops the rearmament of Hezbollah by land and sea?
Israel is not really happy with this.
And as soon as they think it is enough they are going to try to crush the Hezbollah again as well as Hezbollah is going to provoke the Israelis were they can to make sure they are going to be the first who seriously opens up fire.

And then the UNIFIL units are right in the middle of the shit.

 

[eckherl]

And this is the point.
It is bad for Israel.
Is somebody here really thinking that UNIFIL just now stops the rearmament of Hezbollah by land and sea?
Israel is not really happy with this.
And as soon as they think it is enough they are going to try to crush the Hezbollah again as well as Hezbollah is going to provoke the Israelis were they can to make sure they are going to be the first who seriously opens up fire.

And then the UNIFIL units are right in the middle of the shit.

UNIFIL will not accomplish anything by being over there, and I agree with you in regards to the Isrealis, if they are smart they will finish what they started, but I do not see them mixing it up with UNIFIL forces, Isreal doesn`t need anymore head aches either, they will convey to UNIFIL to stay out of it, both of these brigades are strong enough to set up a good defensive area of operations so that they can stay out of the crap.

 

[Waylander]

They bombed a UNIFIL position and nothing happened.
If they accidently hit some Italian or French units what do you think would happen?
Some harsh comments and nothing more.
If they do not attack a UNIFIL unit directly with a mech brigade I really doubt that anything happens.

 

[eckherl]

They bombed a UNIFIL position and nothing happened.
If they accidently hit some Italian or French units what do you think would happen?
Some harsh comments and nothing more.
If they do not attack a UNIFIL unit directly with a mech brigade I really doubt that anything happens.

Yes - this is a touchy situation that Isreal needs to handle with velvet gloves. if they decide to go back in there, they need to handle UNIFIL as if they are their own, meaning that they need to safe guard them. they also need to be very careful due to the fact that the U.S is not happy with them right now either due to the fact of whats happened to the Lebaneese government and also the use of cluster bombs when they initially went in there.

 

[Waylander]

Time will tel if they act like they should or not.

 

[icelord]

Israel would need to ensure there are no "stuff ups",there will be no room for error like the first battle, the bombing of the UN compound won't be tolerated this time round, they could not handle Euro nations stopping funds or blockading them(drastic i know), Israel relies on other countries money, and if that stopped, then so would the whole nation. I agree with eckherl, they need to treat UNFIL like their own force, if they come under attack, the IDF needs to respond quickly(but i doubt it will be quick enough for pollies and media in any case. The IDF will go back to Lebanon, no doubt there, but what it will do is unsure and its mission will be even more complex then last battle, as the UN force matters now for them.

 

[eckherl]

Does anyone know of the two commanders that are in charge of the two Brigades that are there now, can they be counted as true combat brigades.

 

[Grand Danois]

Does anyone know of the two commanders that are in charge of the two Brigades that are there now, can they be counted as true combat brigades.

Going by memory.

The Italian brigade and the Spanish batallion are elite marine units. They had just undergone the workup for NRF-7 ie they were on standby for rapid deployment in case of a crisis. I can't remember where the French brigade was drawn from, but I think they are also some elite unit. It was essentially the IT and SP MARFOR that got deployed.

http://www.nato.int/shape/issues/shape_nrf/nrf_rotation.ppt

Basically, they are high end formations wrt training and kit, albeit relatively light on the kit. At least on par with the standing Israeli brigades and better than Hezbollah.

Hezbollah had around 5,000 well trained troops, those that fought Israel recently, and they lost a doubledigit percentage of their numbers. They also have the same number of milita types they can call up. But they lost much essential manpower and kit during the last war. Their only option is IED's and suicide bombs, as they lack true offensive capability.

The only real threat for them is airpower.

 

[merocaine]

Their only option is IED's and suicide bombs, as they lack true offensive capability.

They disowned suiside bombing as unislamic in the late 1990's, the majority of suicide bombers esp the first ones in the early 80's were secular (communist party) or christian. Hezzbullah prefered to use outsiders rather than its own members. Once they got better training and weapons they fazed it out completely.

If they do launch attacks on the multinational forces it will be to force them to stop patroling, (IED's) there a useful buffer on the border with israel at the moment, I dont think they want them to leave just yet.

 

[Patzek]

As someone who fought Hizballah during this last operation, as i'm a UCAV opeartor in the Israeli Air Force, I can trully say that I was just miserable when this operation ended.
I lost friends there, close friends, and really, it was hard, and its still is.
My family needed to run 10 times a day to the shelter, my brother's last vacation before he join the IDF also got ruined, the entire Israeli north got shut down, there was nothing visible here besides soldiers, and the general atmosphere in my squadron, and in my base, was just sad.
And it wasn't sad because we done everything we could to stop those bastards from killing our friends and shooting thousands of rockets to my country territory, it because we just DIDN'T do it.
What do I mean? I mean that the IDF was just, in one word, stupid. It was generally one of the most dumbest operations I remember, and it wasn't because we couldn't fight them, it because we done it in the wrong way.
If they only let us do what we could.. maybe many of the soldiers and civilians who got killed, would've still be alive. Maybe my friends too.

You seriously can't imagine how fucked up our use of power was. So much waste, so much " for nothing ".
Instead of destroying them, we were so bull's eyes, that it was just sad.
There was cases that I, personally, went to my commanders and begged, seriously, begged them, so they will let me put some serious weapons on my machine and leave those pin point missiles that we already saw that didn't stopped them. they agreed with me, but they couldn't do anything. the orderds to use pin-point missiles came from much higher than them, and we wasn't allowed, just wasn't allowed, to use anything else.
But its not like that if we would've used more serious thing we would've killed more civilians, cause civilians wasn't there anymore, but maybe, and actually, not maybe, i'm almost 100% sure, that we could've done much more damage to them.

The IDF got amazing abillities, but we just didn't used them. Sending ground troops so deep... was just stupid.
The war could've end from the air, if we had only done it right... And I will never stop asking myself if my friends didn't died for nothing...

 

[contedicavour]

Going by memory.

The Italian brigade and the Spanish batallion are elite marine units. They had just undergone the workup for NRF-7 ie they were on standby for rapid deployment in case of a crisis. I can't remember where the French brigade was drawn from, but I think they are also some elite unit. It was essentially the IT and SP MARFOR that got deployed.

http://www.nato.int/shape/issues/shape_nrf/nrf_rotation.ppt

Basically, they are high end formations wrt training and kit, albeit relatively light on the kit. At least on par with the standing Israeli brigades and better than Hezbollah.

Hezbollah had around 5,000 well trained troops, those that fought Israel recently, and they lost a doubledigit percentage of their numbers. They also have the same number of milita types they can call up. But they lost much essential manpower and kit during the last war. Their only option is IED's and suicide bombs, as they lack true offensive capability.

The only real threat for them is airpower.

Actually that was correct. We are now in the process of replacing the Marine brigade with the armoured mechanized brigade "Pozzuolo del Friuli", which operates Centauro 8x8 with 105mm main gun and Puma 4x4 and 6x6 AIPC with 12.7mm and some Dardo AIFVs with automatic 25mm guns (these ones actually come from the Ariete tank heavy brigade). The transition is currently underway, but we already have some heavy material in place.
I've read somewhere that the M109L SP guns are coming as well. Ariete MBTs and Mangusta attack multirole helos are on standby but not planned to go to Lebanon at the moment.

cheers

 

[merocaine]

What kind of air support do the multinational forces have?

 

[contedicavour]

What kind of air support do the multinational forces have?

That's the issue. None since our carrier Garibaldi left its station in front of southern Lebanese coastline. At least before we had a dozen AV8B+ Harriers armed with AIM120 Amraams.
If air cover was necessary urgently, we could send Typhoons or F16ADF and the French could send Rafales or Mirage 2000C to the British base in Cyprus, from which the jets could patrol over Lebanon (though inflight refueling would be needed if we want sufficient time above target)

cheers

 

[Waylander]

And maybe some british, italian, or german Tornados for recce and ground support.
But I doubt anybody is going to send planes.

 

[contedicavour]

And maybe some british, italian, or german Tornados for recce and ground support.
But I doubt anybody is going to send planes.

Agree. If a fatal accident happens the IDF will start claiming it's an accident and that of course it will be careful not to end up in the same situation again, etc.
So by the time Typhoon, Tornado, Mirages, etc are there, they will not receive the order to counterattack.
That's why it would be better to have a squadron or 2 in Lebanon to preempt more aggressive action by IDF planes.

cheers

 

[Grand Danois]

Agree. If a fatal accident happens the IDF will start claiming it's an accident and that of course it will be careful not to end up in the same situation again, etc.
So by the time Typhoon, Tornado, Mirages, etc are there, they will not receive the order to counterattack.
That's why it would be better to have a squadron or 2 in Lebanon to preempt more aggressive action by IDF planes.

cheers

This is not a traditional standoff. It is best handled politically/diplomatically, than by beefing up mil assets in region.

 

[contedicavour]

This is not a traditional standoff. It is best handled politically/diplomatically, than by beefing up mil assets in region.

Except that the only diplomacy that works in the area is the one exercised from a position of strength. Either everybody recognizes you can effectively threaten the others, or your voice is worth nothing.
It's a "muscular" diplomacy that requires having significant assets right there right now...

cheers

 

[Grand Danois]

It would take quite a lot to achieve a position of strenght. Bullying Israel around doesn't provide anything we desire. The simulated runs is in reality relatively minor. Soft power/good sense can be brought to bear.